Some friendly advice: You can't bet based on hunches.
I believe handicapping is stages of development. Everyone starts with betting the easy heavy faves, then they start betting on hunches, then the underdogs, then they start using systems and trends, then they start reading line movement and betting based on that, then they go contrarian, etc, etc and it gets to the point when they have no idea what they are doing anymore, they overthink things.
It's all gimmicks, and in my opinion, can't lead to consistent winning.
All of those things can be used as tools to determine how big or small to play something, but no single one should steer you completely away from a play.
Last week you had Boise State staring us in the face, and I couldn't find any reason to take Fresno. I took Boise, laid the points on the road and won on a "suspicious" line. Money's in the bank now.
I also laid the points on Miami -5, last week. This week I took the dog, South Carolina. Suspicious, not suspicious, home underdog, road favorite, running dog, running favorite, some lines move in your favor, some don't.
Just win baby.
2* LSU Tigers -12 -110
LSU's opening day close call vs. Washington in Washington suddenly doesn't look so bad. In fact, it actually looks like a quality win at this point.
Their next 2 games held both of their opponents under 10 points each game. So they've got a little bit of confidence coming into this game on defense.
Offensively this team has weapons and Jordan Jefferson has been asked to be the man to bring it all together. With each game that passes, this guy will get better and better as LSUs starting QB.
In this game, we have a Miss State team that I have backed twice this season, but can't in this spot. Miss State's spread attack from Dan Mullen (former Gator off coordinator) has been slowed because they lack the athletes to get it done. They put 24 on Auburn only because Auburn scored 49 points and kept giving the ball back to the Bulldogs. And they only scored 15 on Vandy. So in SEC play they are averaging less than 20 points per game, and that's not good when you face LSU and their traditionally strong defense that is playing with some confidence right now.
LSU is no stranger to Miss State. This is the SEC West opener for each team, so expect LSU to kick it into another gear in this game. LSU has performed exceptionally well at Miss State winning 4 straight there, by at least an astonishing 30 points each time. In fact, LSU is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games vs. Miss State. So Miss State is not a team that traditionally gives LSU any kind of problems, and with the LSU offense looking to get on track, this should be a good spot for them to do so, against the perfect team and venue for them to do it in.
LSU is one of the SECs best road teams under Les Miles, partially because he does not go into a shell and play conservative football. He goes into your house and takes chances and risks, and he is a great guy to back on the road. LSU is 15-7 ATS as a road favorite.
Meanwhile Miss State has not put up much of a fight as a big home underdog. The Bulldogs are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog of 10 or more points.
And while it is exciting that Mullen has brought the spread attack to Miss State, he has always struggled with LSU's defensive scheme, and that was with UFs athletes, not Miss State's. Until last years ass kicking of LSU by Florida in their national title year, Mullen's offense at Florida scored 24 points or less every year he was calling the plays vs. the Cajuns.
LSU has been on the verge of breaking out offensively, so watch for them to try and get a big win this week.
So if you're looking to back an obvious favorite this week, LSU may be a good candidate, laying a relatively easy number to cover in the number 12 in a venue they have performed exceptionally well in.
LSU 38
Miss State 17
LSU's opening day close call vs. Washington in Washington suddenly doesn't look so bad. In fact, it actually looks like a quality win at this point.
Their next 2 games held both of their opponents under 10 points each game. So they've got a little bit of confidence coming into this game on defense.
Offensively this team has weapons and Jordan Jefferson has been asked to be the man to bring it all together. With each game that passes, this guy will get better and better as LSUs starting QB.
In this game, we have a Miss State team that I have backed twice this season, but can't in this spot. Miss State's spread attack from Dan Mullen (former Gator off coordinator) has been slowed because they lack the athletes to get it done. They put 24 on Auburn only because Auburn scored 49 points and kept giving the ball back to the Bulldogs. And they only scored 15 on Vandy. So in SEC play they are averaging less than 20 points per game, and that's not good when you face LSU and their traditionally strong defense that is playing with some confidence right now.
LSU is no stranger to Miss State. This is the SEC West opener for each team, so expect LSU to kick it into another gear in this game. LSU has performed exceptionally well at Miss State winning 4 straight there, by at least an astonishing 30 points each time. In fact, LSU is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games vs. Miss State. So Miss State is not a team that traditionally gives LSU any kind of problems, and with the LSU offense looking to get on track, this should be a good spot for them to do so, against the perfect team and venue for them to do it in.
LSU is one of the SECs best road teams under Les Miles, partially because he does not go into a shell and play conservative football. He goes into your house and takes chances and risks, and he is a great guy to back on the road. LSU is 15-7 ATS as a road favorite.
Meanwhile Miss State has not put up much of a fight as a big home underdog. The Bulldogs are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog of 10 or more points.
And while it is exciting that Mullen has brought the spread attack to Miss State, he has always struggled with LSU's defensive scheme, and that was with UFs athletes, not Miss State's. Until last years ass kicking of LSU by Florida in their national title year, Mullen's offense at Florida scored 24 points or less every year he was calling the plays vs. the Cajuns.
LSU has been on the verge of breaking out offensively, so watch for them to try and get a big win this week.
So if you're looking to back an obvious favorite this week, LSU may be a good candidate, laying a relatively easy number to cover in the number 12 in a venue they have performed exceptionally well in.
LSU 38
Miss State 17
2* South Carolina Gamecocks +2.5 1H -110
1* South Carolina Gamecocks +4 Full Game -110
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1* Missouri Tigers -7 -110
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4* Virginia Tech Hokies +3 -116
2* North Carolina Tar Heels +3 -116
2* LSU Tigers -12 -110
1* South Carolina Gamecocks +4 Full Game -110
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1* Missouri Tigers -7 -110
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4* Virginia Tech Hokies +3 -116
2* North Carolina Tar Heels +3 -116
2* LSU Tigers -12 -110
