It's funny that you say that and looking at your avatar....What the Miami/Va Tech game reminds me of is Texas-Texas Tech last year.
Texas had a 4-game gauntlet beating Oklahoma at a neutral site ala Miami beating FSU at FSU in a tight game to get the hype party started. Then they wax the floor with an overrated Mizzou team at home (Miami waxes the floor with an overrated/tired Ga Tech at home). The media started saying Texas was the #1 team in the country, nobody will stop them, Colt for Heisman, etc, etc. The media begins saying the Canes are for real, look how impressive they are, does Jacory have a chance at the Heisman? The difference in schedule occurs here as Texas struggled to beat Oklahoma State AT HOME in the 3rd game by a score of 28-24 as the gauntlet begun to wear on them. And they got tripped up on their gauntlet when they took off to another ROAD GAME at Texas Tech.
Miami takes off on another road game, a rival just like Texas did heading to Texas Tech and here is where I feel they get tripped up. This is Miami's 2nd road game in 3 games. Texas was and is a better team than Miami, so why can't Miami get tripped up? For all of the hype that Jacory Harris gets, since when does having a SOPHOMORE starter at QB with a handful of career starts, going to play at Lane Stadium a POSITIVE? People are talking like Jacory Harris is invincible right now, like he is a seasoned junior or senior QB that has been in every situation, won bowl games left and right, is a perennial leader in road games, can slice up and read any collegiate defense, and can do no wrong. This is a kid 2 games removed from a season in which he through for a career high 194 yards vs Cal in the Emerald Bowl. He's looked good to start the season, but don't think for a minute this sophomore doesn't have a few clunkers in him.
Texas had a junior Heisman QB (McCoy) who is and was leaps and bounds better last year than the sophomore Jacory Harris. They had Brian Orakpo and a tremendous pass rush and defense. Texas was a junior and senior-laden team with big time playmakers at leadership and seasoned guys at key positions and they got tripped up. So why can't this YOUNG Miami team that is just 6 months removed from playing in the EMERALD BOWL not have a lapse on the road after playing 2 tough games?
It happened to TEXAS, why not Miami?
Yes, the Va Tech/South Carolina comparisons are there as well. South Carolina was getting ripped to shreds by their fans as having a non-existent offense just like Va Tech is. They won opening night 7-3 vs. NC State. They won last night 16-10. As I have said many times, teams that FIND a way to win is not a weakness. As ugly and sloppy and unimpressive Va Tech was last week vs. a good Nebraska team, they FOUND a way to win.
I'll have plenty more games on the card, and as it stands now I may have a game that I bet that is a larger wager than the Va Tech Game so it seems like I'm putting all of my eggs into this Va Tech basket but it's just another game for me.
I like your opinion here I think this is right on. I for one was one of the people dissapointed texas couldn't get past the Texas Tech in the last of their streak of tough games. Reading your write up almost makes me want to put more on this game. But I've learned too much in the past not too bet sparadically. Either way just wanted to thank you for the help you do for us. Good luck!!
2* North Carolina Tar Heels +3 -116
*It's important that you listen to Petey Pablo while reading this write-up.*
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-26bRZEedZg
Last week, we saw a drained, emotionally spent Georgia Tech team get rolled by an upstart Miami squad. We've seen Georgia Tech twice in National TV now, we've seen them skull drag Clemson (in the 1st half), and nearly give up the game 2nd half. We've seen them bend over for the U for 3 quarters. Although this team has been front and center in our minds....In primetime, emotional, National TV games, this team has gotten dominated for 5 of the 8 quarters they have participated in.
Paul Johnson's triple option attack can be nasty vs. undisciplined college style defensive coordinators that don't know what they are doing. But when you face NFL style defensive coaches like Miami's Randy Shannon or UNCs Butch Davis, the option is a gimmick that easily gets shut down.
North Carolina shut this attack down last year with mostly the same guys returning on defense. Ga Techs option mustered 7 points vs UNC last year and the Tar Heels come into this game with confidence that they can do it again this year and play assignment football.
The option attack has a glass ceiling as well. It can only score so many points, and it can't play from behind. It scored a season high 37 vs Jax State, then 30 vs. Clemson, and 17 vs Miami. The attack has scored less and less points as the season has progressed and the competition has gotten stiffer. I think the glass ceiling on this game is 24 points for the Triple Option. This attack should not eclipse that mark vs. a UNC defense that has already shut it down a year ago.
So the question is, if the attack is somewhat effective and scores it's 24 points vs UNC, can UNC score 24+ and the answer is yes.
TJ Yates, the junior QB, is completing a whopping 67% of his passes as the Tar Heels have had a balanced attack. Their first road game at UCONN wasn't great, but I feel that was a mulligan game.
This is UNCs ACC home opener and I think they are ready to rock and roll here as Butch Davis tries to get this team to turn the corner. They'll come into this game with confidence that Miami destroyed Ga Tech and the Yellow Jackets are primed to get beaten. UNC went 3-2 straight up in road games last year, and they are 5-0 ATS as a small road underdog. Compare that to the fact that the Yellow Jackets are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Even better the Tar Heels are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0. So when they are set to play a hard fought game, and the other team is favored by a FG or less, UNC covers 10 times out of 12 under Butch Davis and co.
Meanwhile, the Yellow Jackets are 3-8-2 ATS in their last 13 games as a home favorite. And the Yellow Jackets are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 home games.
The fact that this game is at Georgia Tech means nothing. UNC is 4-2 straight up last 6 road games.
Take the strong road team under Butch Davis, visiting an overrated home team. Tar Heels have a balanced offensive attack, this is their ACC opener and they shut the triple option down last year. They have an experienced junior QB in Yates playing well, and return an experienced defensive unit.
After playing 2 weeks straight on prime-time night games, expect a lackadaisical effort from the Yellow Jackets playing vs. a motivated Tar Heels team making their ACC opener.
North Carolina 27
Georgia Tech 23
*It's important that you listen to Petey Pablo while reading this write-up.*
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-26bRZEedZg
Last week, we saw a drained, emotionally spent Georgia Tech team get rolled by an upstart Miami squad. We've seen Georgia Tech twice in National TV now, we've seen them skull drag Clemson (in the 1st half), and nearly give up the game 2nd half. We've seen them bend over for the U for 3 quarters. Although this team has been front and center in our minds....In primetime, emotional, National TV games, this team has gotten dominated for 5 of the 8 quarters they have participated in.
Paul Johnson's triple option attack can be nasty vs. undisciplined college style defensive coordinators that don't know what they are doing. But when you face NFL style defensive coaches like Miami's Randy Shannon or UNCs Butch Davis, the option is a gimmick that easily gets shut down.
North Carolina shut this attack down last year with mostly the same guys returning on defense. Ga Techs option mustered 7 points vs UNC last year and the Tar Heels come into this game with confidence that they can do it again this year and play assignment football.
The option attack has a glass ceiling as well. It can only score so many points, and it can't play from behind. It scored a season high 37 vs Jax State, then 30 vs. Clemson, and 17 vs Miami. The attack has scored less and less points as the season has progressed and the competition has gotten stiffer. I think the glass ceiling on this game is 24 points for the Triple Option. This attack should not eclipse that mark vs. a UNC defense that has already shut it down a year ago.
So the question is, if the attack is somewhat effective and scores it's 24 points vs UNC, can UNC score 24+ and the answer is yes.
TJ Yates, the junior QB, is completing a whopping 67% of his passes as the Tar Heels have had a balanced attack. Their first road game at UCONN wasn't great, but I feel that was a mulligan game.
This is UNCs ACC home opener and I think they are ready to rock and roll here as Butch Davis tries to get this team to turn the corner. They'll come into this game with confidence that Miami destroyed Ga Tech and the Yellow Jackets are primed to get beaten. UNC went 3-2 straight up in road games last year, and they are 5-0 ATS as a small road underdog. Compare that to the fact that the Yellow Jackets are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Even better the Tar Heels are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0. So when they are set to play a hard fought game, and the other team is favored by a FG or less, UNC covers 10 times out of 12 under Butch Davis and co.
Meanwhile, the Yellow Jackets are 3-8-2 ATS in their last 13 games as a home favorite. And the Yellow Jackets are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 home games.
The fact that this game is at Georgia Tech means nothing. UNC is 4-2 straight up last 6 road games.
Take the strong road team under Butch Davis, visiting an overrated home team. Tar Heels have a balanced offensive attack, this is their ACC opener and they shut the triple option down last year. They have an experienced junior QB in Yates playing well, and return an experienced defensive unit.
After playing 2 weeks straight on prime-time night games, expect a lackadaisical effort from the Yellow Jackets playing vs. a motivated Tar Heels team making their ACC opener.
North Carolina 27
Georgia Tech 23
1* Missouri Tigers -7 -110
The departure of trio Chase Daniel, Jeremy Maclin and Chase Coffman has been well documented. People have waited for the fade of Missouri, but they have come out on offense and havent missed a beat. Granted, their schedule has been soft to date, but I do like their opening day win ON the road at Illinois as their road game ice breaker. That win shows me this team is ready to play on the road, and should be able to handle the smaller crowd that Nevada will throw at them tonight.
I looked for reasons to take Nevada and none exist except for the fact that the line is fishy. However, every now and then the books give you Friday night gifts so you can head into the weekend with a square winner because they know they'll get your money back anyway when you keep betting it.
The bottom line is when you look to take a home underdog, you don't just take them for the hell of it. You are looking for things that prove to you that the home underdog is ready to beat a major conference team like Missouri. But none of that exists for Nevada. They havent won a game yet, their QB has thrown 4 picks and 1 TD, they are not showing signs of anything remotely close to a win, losing 4 of their last 5 games straight up dating back to last year.
Mizzou has won 4 straight and 8 of their last 10 straight up.
So we've got a team that has found ways to win, and a team that has found ways to lose. So I don't think the issue is whether or not Mizzou will win tonight, but by how much?
True, this is the home opener for Nevada, but these guys have been embarrassed. In their 2 games they havent come within 15 points of their opponent, getting shutout by Notre Dame 35-0 and losing to Colorado State 35-20. So why do we feel that they can stay within 7 points of a good Missouri team? Because they are at home? Mizzou is 10-3 last 13 road games. Tigers are 11-0 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0. Tigers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games in September.
They start hot under this coach and they cover on the road.
Mizzou beat these guys last year 69-17, so what makes us think they are 45 points closer this year? Because they lost a few skill position guys?
Mizzou's Blaine Gabbert has completed 68% of his passes, he's got 8 TDs and hasnt thrown a pick yet. The 6'5" QB has stepped right in for Chase Daniel and hasnt missed a beat. Seriously, no INTs through 3 games for a first year starter is pretty impressive, especially on the road at Illinois and Ron Zooks defense.
Meanwhile, Wolf Pack are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog. Wolf Pack are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in September. Wolf Pack are 0-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Missouri 41
Nevada 27
The departure of trio Chase Daniel, Jeremy Maclin and Chase Coffman has been well documented. People have waited for the fade of Missouri, but they have come out on offense and havent missed a beat. Granted, their schedule has been soft to date, but I do like their opening day win ON the road at Illinois as their road game ice breaker. That win shows me this team is ready to play on the road, and should be able to handle the smaller crowd that Nevada will throw at them tonight.
I looked for reasons to take Nevada and none exist except for the fact that the line is fishy. However, every now and then the books give you Friday night gifts so you can head into the weekend with a square winner because they know they'll get your money back anyway when you keep betting it.
The bottom line is when you look to take a home underdog, you don't just take them for the hell of it. You are looking for things that prove to you that the home underdog is ready to beat a major conference team like Missouri. But none of that exists for Nevada. They havent won a game yet, their QB has thrown 4 picks and 1 TD, they are not showing signs of anything remotely close to a win, losing 4 of their last 5 games straight up dating back to last year.
Mizzou has won 4 straight and 8 of their last 10 straight up.
So we've got a team that has found ways to win, and a team that has found ways to lose. So I don't think the issue is whether or not Mizzou will win tonight, but by how much?
True, this is the home opener for Nevada, but these guys have been embarrassed. In their 2 games they havent come within 15 points of their opponent, getting shutout by Notre Dame 35-0 and losing to Colorado State 35-20. So why do we feel that they can stay within 7 points of a good Missouri team? Because they are at home? Mizzou is 10-3 last 13 road games. Tigers are 11-0 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0. Tigers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games in September.
They start hot under this coach and they cover on the road.
Mizzou beat these guys last year 69-17, so what makes us think they are 45 points closer this year? Because they lost a few skill position guys?
Mizzou's Blaine Gabbert has completed 68% of his passes, he's got 8 TDs and hasnt thrown a pick yet. The 6'5" QB has stepped right in for Chase Daniel and hasnt missed a beat. Seriously, no INTs through 3 games for a first year starter is pretty impressive, especially on the road at Illinois and Ron Zooks defense.
Meanwhile, Wolf Pack are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog. Wolf Pack are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in September. Wolf Pack are 0-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Missouri 41
Nevada 27
