2* South Carolina Gamecocks +2.5 1H -110
1* South Carolina Gamecocks +4 Full Game -110
Last week's mid week games saw both favorites cover. This week's Thursday Night game offers a different proposition.
As I mentioned in a previous writeup, Ole Miss is overrated and overvalued. This is a team that had one of the best sets of trenches in the nation last year, with NFL draft picks on both sides of the ball. They are left with Greg Hardy, who may make a limited return in this game.
With them not only replacing new guys on both lines, but replacing NFL guys, Ole Miss doesn't have the recruiting prowess to reload and expect a drop off in their line play.
That drop off has not been able to be seen vs. cupcakes Memphis and Louisiana Tech State, but against a physical South Carolina team, these flaws should begin to surface.
South Carolina LB Eric Norwood is probably the best player on the field tonight and you would never know it. I'm pretty sure he is 1 sack away from breaking the South Carolina school record, and he has as many sacks to date than the entire Ole Miss defense. Norwood's 4 sacks vs. better competition equals the 4 total sacks that Ole Miss produced to date this season. Ole Miss is on pace for 24 sacks, 12 off of their pace from last year.
They are not getting pressure on the QB in the early part of this season and that is a problem vs. Steve Spurrier. The one thing about Spurrier is if you give his WRs time to run their routes, and you let his QB sit in the pocket, you are in for a long day. And as much hype as Jevan Snead is beginning to get, it is Stephen Garcia who has out-performed him against better competition to date.
Spurrier's old defensive coordinator is Tyrone Nix and he used to throw this guy under the bus during every post game press conference. He hated Nix's defensive schemes, and last year at Ole Miss, Spurrier torched Nix's defense through the air to the tune of 405 yards passing using an inconsistent Chris Smelley.
Spurrier has his QB now and expect a similar aerial display on Nix.
Ole Miss has scored 42 of their 97 points this year in the 4th quarter. They have been a slow starting team. As they play their most difficult test to date on the road, I don't expect them to jump out of the gates firing on all cylinders.
South Carolina has scored 9 of their 82 points in the 4th quarter, and this poor finishing team may be susceptible to the backdoor or blowing a big lead. This is why I split the bet up, and put a little more on the first half.
Ole Miss snuck up on people last year and they were able to perform. But now, they are the hunted, not the hunter and it isn't easy getting everyone's best effort when you have that bullseye on your back.
Ole Miss had by far and away the better team last year and they lost outright to South Carolina in Ole Miss. So this time with a more experienced QB in Stephen Garcia, and playing at home, expect South Carolina to give that traditional home Thursday Night underdog effort vs. a grossly overrated Ole Miss team.
Rebels are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a road favorite.
Gamecocks are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 Thursday games.
South Carolina 34
Ole Miss 24
