Boxslayer's CFB Week #4 Plays

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Mizzo is a easy winner tonight!!! The ref's blown call for offense pass int definitely helped...
 

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2* North Carolina Tar Heels +3 -116

*It's important that you listen to Petey Pablo while reading this write-up.*

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-26bRZEedZg

Last week, we saw a drained, emotionally spent Georgia Tech team get rolled by an upstart Miami squad. We've seen Georgia Tech twice in National TV now, we've seen them skull drag Clemson (in the 1st half), and nearly give up the game 2nd half. We've seen them bend over for the U for 3 quarters. Although this team has been front and center in our minds....In primetime, emotional, National TV games, this team has gotten dominated for 5 of the 8 quarters they have participated in.

Paul Johnson's triple option attack can be nasty vs. undisciplined college style defensive coordinators that don't know what they are doing. But when you face NFL style defensive coaches like Miami's Randy Shannon or UNCs Butch Davis, the option is a gimmick that easily gets shut down.

North Carolina shut this attack down last year with mostly the same guys returning on defense. Ga Techs option mustered 7 points vs UNC last year and the Tar Heels come into this game with confidence that they can do it again this year and play assignment football.

The option attack has a glass ceiling as well. It can only score so many points, and it can't play from behind. It scored a season high 37 vs Jax State, then 30 vs. Clemson, and 17 vs Miami. The attack has scored less and less points as the season has progressed and the competition has gotten stiffer. I think the glass ceiling on this game is 24 points for the Triple Option. This attack should not eclipse that mark vs. a UNC defense that has already shut it down a year ago.

So the question is, if the attack is somewhat effective and scores it's 24 points vs UNC, can UNC score 24+ and the answer is yes.

TJ Yates, the junior QB, is completing a whopping 67% of his passes as the Tar Heels have had a balanced attack. Their first road game at UCONN wasn't great, but I feel that was a mulligan game.

This is UNCs ACC home opener and I think they are ready to rock and roll here as Butch Davis tries to get this team to turn the corner. They'll come into this game with confidence that Miami destroyed Ga Tech and the Yellow Jackets are primed to get beaten. UNC went 3-2 straight up in road games last year, and they are 5-0 ATS as a small road underdog. Compare that to the fact that the Yellow Jackets are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Even better the Tar Heels are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0. So when they are set to play a hard fought game, and the other team is favored by a FG or less, UNC covers 10 times out of 12 under Butch Davis and co.

Meanwhile, the Yellow Jackets are 3-8-2 ATS in their last 13 games as a home favorite. And the Yellow Jackets are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 home games.

The fact that this game is at Georgia Tech means nothing. UNC is 4-2 straight up last 6 road games.

Take the strong road team under Butch Davis, visiting an overrated home team. Tar Heels have a balanced offensive attack, this is their ACC opener and they shut the triple option down last year. They have an experienced junior QB in Yates playing well, and return an experienced defensive unit.

After playing 2 weeks straight on prime-time night games, expect a lackadaisical effort from the Yellow Jackets playing vs. a motivated Tar Heels team making their ACC opener.

North Carolina 27
Georgia Tech 23

Georgia Tech rushed for 326 yards at 6ypc. So UNC didnt really shut them down. did force some key turnovers.
 

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Love your NC play... Can't pull the trigger on LSU since I am a MsState Alum... BOL tom!!!
 

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Box... again you show why you are arguably one of the best cappers on the web. Please .. keep up what you are doing...I have followed you for a few years now, and there is nobody that can persuade me one way or another with their thoughts like you can... I appreciate all the work you do and the insight you give. Thank you and keep up the good work.

shockker21
 

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Florida/Kentucky

This is a game I am staying away from.

On one side, Florida has handled Kentucky for a long time. Maybe they want to come out here and put on a show. I felt if the UT game was a blowout, that this may be a letdown game. But the UT game was not a blowout, so I expected Florida to be focused for this. Florida and Meyer have covered something like 15 of of their past 17 games ATS.

But a new set of circumstances have come up. Urban Meyer and Lane Kiffin still LOOKING BACK taking verbal jabs at each other. Nobody is looking forward to their current game. Florida has battled the flu all week as it has hit the whole team. NFL MLB Brandon Spikes, the heart and soul of the Florida defense, is out for this game. Game is in Kentucky, and Florida is laying 21 points.

Florida should win, but how close will it be? This is a huge game for Kentucky getting the #1 team in their house. Florida is a covering machine with the flu. 35 FL players have contracted the flu over the last 2 weeks. They had a separate plane fly up to Kentucky for players that had the flu, and word is Tebow was on that plane. I just don't know what team we are going to see.

I would lean to Kentucky if anyone. But definitely not playing this as I could see a 38-17 type game.
 

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Tebow and Wright have the flu. Not sure that would matter (b/c both will be playing).
I am staying away from the UK/Florida game as well. To tough to call
 

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Florida/Kentucky

This is a game I am staying away from.

On one side, Florida has handled Kentucky for a long time. Maybe they want to come out here and put on a show. I felt if the UT game was a blowout, that this may be a letdown game. But the UT game was not a blowout, so I expected Florida to be focused for this. Florida and Meyer have covered something like 15 of of their past 17 games ATS.

But a new set of circumstances have come up. Urban Meyer and Lane Kiffin still LOOKING BACK taking verbal jabs at each other. Nobody is looking forward to their current game. Florida has battled the flu all week as it has hit the whole team. NFL MLB Brandon Spikes, the heart and soul of the Florida defense, is out for this game. Game is in Kentucky, and Florida is laying 21 points.

Florida should win, but how close will it be? This is a huge game for Kentucky getting the #1 team in their house. Florida is a covering machine with the flu. I just don't know what team we are going to see.

I would lean to Kentucky if anyone. But definitely not playing this as I could see a 38-17 type game.

To complicate matters: there has been, and continues to be, huge amounts of rain falling in Lexington. Even if it stops by game time, it will be very wet out there.
 

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box...what about the rain at miss st and gt?

does that change anything in your opinion?
 

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GL to ya Box!! I am tailing you so close that I might have to put on a Condom :hump: :toast:
 

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