2014 Kentucky Derby Thoughts

[elevenblack301]

hno: After doing some more crunching of numbers, watching replay after replay of prep races, and asking the gypsy lady down the street to read some tea leaves, here is another version of my top 6 with a little shuffling....... Cairo Prince is out, Intense Holiday has now hit the board.........


OK, as of April 22 with less then 2 weeks to go, top 6 are,


Wicked Strong ( 7-1)...................1 strikes, KY bred
.....................unlike most of the field who I expect to have a tough time with the final furlong and such, I believe he will flourish down the stretch as long as he can weave thru the traffic...........

California Chrome ( 7-2).............0 strikes, Cal bred, RAN DamSire line
..................... has to be included, and if the ‘fastest’ horse normally wins the derby, then this is the one...............but we know otherwise that come the first Saturday in May, the fastest horse normally isn’t the one wearing the roses.

Hoppertunity ( 9-1)......................1 strikes, KY bred, RAN Sire line
.....................except the ‘curse’ of not racing as a 2 year old, like his chances, and think he will like the distance as well................had back to back solid efforts in the Rebel and SA and should have M Smith on board again

Intense Holiday ( 25-1 )................0 strikes, KY bred, RAN DamSire line
---------------------- here is my new entry, .....think he was bounced around in his last prep and still came running.......................could be the only true closer in the derby, and if he sits just right......................will be there

Samraat ( 15-1 )........................0 strikes, NY bred,
.......................this guy is a fighter, and is always there at the end.............his beyers are improving and I think he has a great shot at the title

General A Rod ( 20-1 )...............2 strikes, KY bred, RAN Sire line
.......................think if he can relax early in this derby, and does not chase Wildcat Red around , he will have enough left in the tank for a big run down the stretch


Still On The Outside looking in to break into the top 6....

................Ride On Curlin, .........Medal Count, ...........Chitu, ..........Vicar’s In Trouble, .............Tapiture


Be well all.................have a great Day.....

 

[TheComputerGroup]

I'm still waiting for the draw of post position before picking my horse to win & trying to hit that super high priced superfecta

 

[G.MONEY]

Do you mean Ring Weekend?

Yes Sorry.....

 

[TheComputerGroup]

Friend owns a piece of Ring Weekend, bled last race at Calder, will train later this week and if comeback clean goes to the gate

This is really good information.....I never liked this horse for the derby. What do you think GMoney since its your friends horse?

 

[Gravy]

I'm still waiting for the draw of post position before picking my horse to win & trying to hit that super high priced superfecta

I agree here makes no sense to me to study without seeing the whole field and post positions before coming up with horses for the Derby but a closer I do like is We Miss Artie.

 

[Predator35]

I agree here makes no sense to me to study without seeing the whole field and post positions before coming up with horses for the Derby but a closer I do like is We Miss Artie.

Has the derby surface been switched to turf or a polytrack surface without me realizing??

 

[Gravy]

Has the derby surface been switched to turf or a polytrack surface without me realizing??

No not yet that I know of about the derby surface being switched but I thought this was a sharing thread as to who posters like in the Derby so make sure to share your thoughts and contribute instead of being throwing out a fooliish comment about the Churchill Downs track surface.

 

[elevenblack301]

:think2: Some more numbers that I and maybe some of you like to consider...........................



Horse ......................# 1/8 Races...............G Races Run...........G Races Won

California Chrome...............1...............................3...............................2
Vicars in Trouble................1...............................3................................2
Wicked Strong...................2..............................3.................................1
Chitu................................1..............................2..................................1
Hoppertunity.....................1..............................3..................................1
Intense Holiday..................2.............................6...................................1
Midnight Hawk...................1.............................4...................................1
Samraat...........................1.............................3...................................2
Social Inclusion.................1.............................1....................................0
Commanding Curv............1.............................2....................................0
Wildcat Red.....................1.............................3....................................2
Candy Boy.......................1.............................3....................................1
General A Rod.................1.............................2......................................0
Uncle Sigh.......................1............................3......................................0
We Miss Artie..................1............................5......................................2
Harrys Holiday.................2............................2......................................0
Tapiture..........................1...........................5.......................................2
Ride On Curlin..................1...........................5.......................................0
Dance With Fate...............2...........................5.......................................1
Ring Weekend..................1..........................1.........................................1
Medal Count.....................1..........................5........................................1
Vinceremos......................1..........................3.........................................1
Pablo Del Monte................1..........................4.........................................0
Danza.............................1..........................2.........................................1


Be well.........................

 

[TheComputerGroup]

^^^^^

11, I don't understand how to read the above post? Can you explain just one horse?

 

[elevenblack301]

^^^^^

11, I don't understand how to read the above post? Can you explain just one horse?

TCG,

My bad......................I normally place the explanation somewhere in the post...........................but here we go,

Name ...............the number of 1 1/8 distance races this horse has run in.......the number of 'graded' races this horse has run in.......the number of 'graded' races this horse has won...........

I know some people like to see for example, has this horse won any graded races ? ( has he faced better competition and prevailed )...............or has this horse run a longer distance than 1 1/16...etc....?

 

[TheComputerGroup]

OK, thanks for explanation man......& I don't believe any horse has won the derby if they hadn't ran at least one 1 1/8 race at least past 30 years.

Only Giacomo has won the derby w/o winning a graded stakes race past 30 years if I'm not mistaken.

 

[elevenblack301]

OK, thanks for explanation man......& I don't believe any horse has won the derby if they hadn't ran at least one 1 1/8 race at least past 30 years.

Only Giacomo has won the derby w/o winning a graded stakes race past 30 years if I'm not mistaken.

Well, if this holds TRUE TO FORM then , we can eliminate the following horses from Win contention,...................

.....Social Inclusion, Commanding Curve, General A Rod, Uncle Sigh, Harry's Holiday, Ride On Curlin, Pablo Del Monte.........................this will narrow the field down if you follow this trend.........if not, then they all have a chance at the title...........

 

[Predator35]

No not yet that I know of about the derby surface being switched but I thought this was a sharing thread as to who posters like in the Derby so make sure to share your thoughts and contribute instead of being throwing out a fooliish comment about the Churchill Downs track surface.

Sorry, good luck with him.

 

[elevenblack301]

:think2: What about post positions in the Derby..................Does It Matter ?................ Depends .................

Here are the post positions and the number of wins since 1900:

1 – 12
2 – 9
3 – 8
4 – 11
5 – 12
6 – 6
7 – 8
8 – 10
9 – 4
10 – 10
11 – 3
12 – 3
13 – 4
14 – 2
15 – 3
16 – 5
17 – 0
18 – 1
19 – 1
20 - 2


Remember for many years, they did not have a full field, of course....................

 

[Hndfulprls]

11, this has been an incredible thread with a ton of work on your part. Thanks!

 

[goin4broke]

whats a g race?

 

[TheComputerGroup]

whats a g race?

G= Graded stakes race

 

[TheComputerGroup]

:think2: What about post positions in the Derby..................Does It Matter ?................ Depends .................

Here are the post positions and the number of wins since 1900:

1 – 12
2 – 9
3 – 8
4 – 11
5 – 12
6 – 6
7 – 8
8 – 10
9 – 4
10 – 10
11 – 3
12 – 3
13 – 4
14 – 2
15 – 3
16 – 5
17 – 0
18 – 1
19 – 1
20 - 2


Remember for many years, they did not have a full field, of course....................

Hmm.....the #17 post is the only one w/o a winner.......one of these years it will happen just like the #19 post 1st time in 2012

 

[TheComputerGroup]

One thing I would like to add is if you don't think Cali Chrome can win the derby, don't put him in the exotics.

He either wins the race or is completely left out of the money, just my opinion tho.

 

[goin4broke]

thanks