Timeformus.com speed figs from previous derbys
Orb 111
I'll Have Another 116
Animal Kingdom 117
Super Saver 112
Mine that Bird 117
Big Brown 119
Street Sense 118
Barbaro 121
Giacomo 112
Smarty Jones 117
now this years crop best speed fig going long in the preps
1 Wicked Strong 117
2 Soc Incl 115
3 Soc Incl 114
4 Samraat 114
5 Schivarelli 113
6 Cal Chrome 113
7 Cal Chrome 111
8 Danza 110
9 Uncle Sigh 110
10 Samraat 110
Orb 111
I'll Have Another 116
Animal Kingdom 117
Super Saver 112
Mine that Bird 117
Big Brown 119
Street Sense 118
Barbaro 121
Giacomo 112
Smarty Jones 117
now this years crop best speed fig going long in the preps
1 Wicked Strong 117
2 Soc Incl 115
3 Soc Incl 114
4 Samraat 114
5 Schivarelli 113
6 Cal Chrome 113
7 Cal Chrome 111
8 Danza 110
9 Uncle Sigh 110
10 Samraat 110
joeyp,
Hello back at you....................good to be back, and we both know we love this stuff............................ always looking forward to your insight and plays..................
Appreciate all that you do as I often check your thread thru the year.......................think we may be cashing some tickets come the 1st Saturday of May..............
Be well........................and Gracias Mille.............
hno: Here are the possible entries and their best Beyer Rating over their lifetime..........................if a " last race" follows their number that means that this horse achieved this Beyer in his most recent race.........................California Chrome..................................108
Wicked Strong......................................104.....................................last race
Danza..................................................102......................................last race
Chitu...................................................102.....................................last race
Wildcat Red...........................................101
General A Rod........................................101
Hoppertunity..........................................100
Tapiture..................................................99
Constitution............................................99.......................................last race
Midnight Hawk.........................................98........................................last race
Vicar’s In Trouble.....................................98
Ride On Curlin..........................................98
Samraat..................................................98.........................................last race
Dance With Fate.......................................97........................................last race
Intense Holiday.........................................97
Uncle Sigh...............................................96
Candy Boy...............................................96
Cairo Prince..............................................95
Ring Weekend..........................................95
Medal Count............................................94....................................last race
Pablo Del Monte.......................................91.......................................last race
Vinceremos..............................................90
We Miss Artie...........................................89
Commanding Curve..................................89.................................last race
Harry’s Holiday.........................................85
An interesting side note, I read some time ago, that Andrew Beyer was discussing his Beyer numbers and how he assigns them. He said he would love to be able to give a number to the all time greats, like Seattle Slew and Secretariat....................................... he then went on to say that he would have to give Secretariat's Belmont a 139 Beyer..................... the highest he ever would assign to the greatest race ever run...................I still get goosebumps watching replays of that race....
:think2: Here is a listing of what I like to call, My Simple Beyer Ratings for the possible players..........
California Chrome..................101
Wildcat Red..........................98.67
General A Rod......................96.6
Chitu...................................96.3
Samraat...............................96
Tapiture...............................95.6
Midnight Hawk......................95.3
Hoppertunity........................94.34
Candy Boy...........................94.3
Vicar’s In Trouble..................93.67
Constitution.........................93.67
Uncle Sigh............................93
Wicked Strong......................92.67
Cairo Prince...........................92
Intense Holiday.....................90.67
Ride On Curlin.......................90.67
Medal Count.........................90.6
Dance With Fate....................90
Danza..................................87.34
Pablo Del Monte.....................87
Commanding Curve................84
Ring Weekend.......................82.3
Vinceremos...........................81.6
We Miss Artie........................81.34
Harry’s Holiday......................78.6
Starting to think that C Chrome may be at the top of most of these lists...................
Be well all.......................
California Chrome..................101
Wildcat Red..........................98.67
General A Rod......................96.6
Chitu...................................96.3
Samraat...............................96
Tapiture...............................95.6
Midnight Hawk......................95.3
Hoppertunity........................94.34
Candy Boy...........................94.3
Vicar’s In Trouble..................93.67
Constitution.........................93.67
Uncle Sigh............................93
Wicked Strong......................92.67
Cairo Prince...........................92
Intense Holiday.....................90.67
Ride On Curlin.......................90.67
Medal Count.........................90.6
Dance With Fate....................90
Danza..................................87.34
Pablo Del Monte.....................87
Commanding Curve................84
Ring Weekend.......................82.3
Vinceremos...........................81.6
We Miss Artie........................81.34
Harry’s Holiday......................78.6
Starting to think that C Chrome may be at the top of most of these lists...................
Be well all.......................
:howdy: A friend of mine ( one of the 4 fellows that I share all of the plays with when we use monopoly money ) just sent me these to list...............
These are the Tomlinson Ratings................
.................................................Dst..........................Wet
Hoppertunity..............................373*.........................362
Medal Count...............................332...........................366
Wicked Strong...........................330..........................335
Chitu.........................................311..........................419
Vinceremos................................311..........................394*
Pablo Del Monte.........................310..........................368
Ride On Curlin...........................290*.........................401
California Chrome......................288*.........................390
Harry’s Holiday..........................282...........................385
Commanding Curve....................274.........................358
Intense Holiday..........................268..........................395
Midnight Hawk...........................267*........................321
Samratt....................................266.........................347
Cairo Prince...............................263.........................392*
Wildcat Red...............................261*.......................372
Ring Weekend...........................260.........................383
Vicars In Trouble.......................258*........................351
General A Rod..........................257..........................394
Candy Boy...............................253..........................418
Dance With Fate.......................247..........................339*
Tapiture...................................246..........................411
Danza......................................241.........................398
Uncle Sigh................................239.........................402
We Miss Artie............................235.........................322
The “ * “ is noted on some values and these are the horses whose sire and/or damsire have relatively small samples ( less than 80 runners )
Some interesting numbers here............some very interesting numbers for sure.................
This is fun...............be well all................
These are the Tomlinson Ratings................
.................................................Dst..........................Wet
Hoppertunity..............................373*.........................362
Medal Count...............................332...........................366
Wicked Strong...........................330..........................335
Chitu.........................................311..........................419
Vinceremos................................311..........................394*
Pablo Del Monte.........................310..........................368
Ride On Curlin...........................290*.........................401
California Chrome......................288*.........................390
Harry’s Holiday..........................282...........................385
Commanding Curve....................274.........................358
Intense Holiday..........................268..........................395
Midnight Hawk...........................267*........................321
Samratt....................................266.........................347
Cairo Prince...............................263.........................392*
Wildcat Red...............................261*.......................372
Ring Weekend...........................260.........................383
Vicars In Trouble.......................258*........................351
General A Rod..........................257..........................394
Candy Boy...............................253..........................418
Dance With Fate.......................247..........................339*
Tapiture...................................246..........................411
Danza......................................241.........................398
Uncle Sigh................................239.........................402
We Miss Artie............................235.........................322
The “ * “ is noted on some values and these are the horses whose sire and/or damsire have relatively small samples ( less than 80 runners )
Some interesting numbers here............some very interesting numbers for sure.................
This is fun...............be well all................
Good stuff 11.......I believe Cali Chrome has the X factor with the large heart.
Also, how have the Tomlinson ratings done in the past?
Also, how have the Tomlinson ratings done in the past?
As for the Tomlinson Ratings and the Derby, still trying to get some more info on that.....................but for starters here is a stat..............
Tomlinson Distance Ratings
Calculated by analyzing pedigree influences, revised quarterly, and keyed to the distance of the race, Tomlinson Distance Ratings indicate the the distance potential of each horse’s breeding. A rating of 320 is considered average; ratings above 320 suggest a horse may excel at the Derby’s 10-furlong distance. Since 1998, six winners have had Tomlinson Distance Ratings better than 320: I’ll Have Another, 2012; Animal Kingdom, 2011; Barbaro, 2006; War Emblem, 2002; Fusaichi Pegasus, 2000; and Charismatic, 1999.
I have a fiend who is able to get the X Factor of the Derby horses, so hopefully will have that soon................................interesting to see if Chrome has it..............and of course who else..............
Thanks and looking forward to who you like as we move forward............
:think2: Here are the racing records of the possible entries as of April 17, 2014.............
...................................................2013............................2014.........................Life
California Chrome................7.........3-1-0..............3...........3-0-0...................10........6-1-0
Vicar’s In Trouble................2.........1-0-1..............3...........2-0-1....................5.........3-0-2
Dance With Fate.................5..........1-2-0.............3............2-1-0....................8........3-3-0
Wicked Strong...................3..........1-1-1.............3............1-0-0....................6........2-1-1
Samraat............................3..........3-0-0.............3............2-1-0....................6.........5-1-0
Danza...............................2..........1-0-1.............2.............1-0-1...................4..........2-0-2
Hoppertunity.....................0...............................5.............2-1-0...................5..........2-1-0
Intenses Holiday................5...........1-0-0............3.............1-1-1...................8..........2-1-1
Wildcat Red.......................3..........2-1-0............4.............2-2-0....................7..........4-3-0
We Miss Artie....................5...........2-1-0............3.............1-1-0...................8...........3-2-0
Ride On Curlin...................5...........1-1-2............4.............1-1-2...................9...........2-2-4
Chitu................................2..........2-0-0.............2.............1-1-0...................4............3-1-0
Tapiture............................4..........1-1-2.............3..............1-1-0..................7...........2-2-2
Midnight Hawk....................1.........1-0-0..............4.............1-2-1..................5............2-2-1
Ring Weekend...................3...........0-0-2.............4.............2-2-0..................7............2-2-2
General A Rod...................2...........1-1-0.............3..............1-1-1.................5............2-2-1
Medal Count......................3...........1-0-0.............4..............2-1-1.................7............3-1-0
Candy Boy........................5...........1-2-0..............2..............1-0-1.................7...........2-2-1
Cairo Prince.......................3...........2-1-0..............2..............1-0-1.................5...........3-1-0
Uncle Sigh.........................2...........1-1-0.............3...............0-2-0.................5............1-3-0
Vinceremos........................1..........0-1-0.............4...............2-1-0.................5.............2-2-0
Harry’s Holiday....................3.........2-1-0..............5..............1-1-1.................8.............3-2-1
Commanding Curve.............4..........1-1-1..............2..............0-0-1.................6.............1-1-2
Pablo Del Monte..................3..........2-0-0.............3...............0-0-2.................6.............2-0-2
Note of Interest.................One horse, Hoppertunity did not race as a 2 year old, and I know some handicappers hold this stat in high regard.
And here is the record for those horses who have ran on the Churchill Dirt..............
Tapiture....................................3...........1-0-2
General A Rod...........................1............0-1-0
Harrys Holiday...........................2............1-1-0
Commanding Curve...................3............1-1-1
Social Inclusion.........................3..............0-1-1
Coastline.................................2..............1-1-0
Noble Moon.............................1...............1-0-0
Dublin Up................................1...............0-0-0
Ride On Curlin..........................3...............0-1-1
Ring Weekend..........................1...............0-0-1
Be well all.................
...................................................2013............................2014.........................Life
California Chrome................7.........3-1-0..............3...........3-0-0...................10........6-1-0
Vicar’s In Trouble................2.........1-0-1..............3...........2-0-1....................5.........3-0-2
Dance With Fate.................5..........1-2-0.............3............2-1-0....................8........3-3-0
Wicked Strong...................3..........1-1-1.............3............1-0-0....................6........2-1-1
Samraat............................3..........3-0-0.............3............2-1-0....................6.........5-1-0
Danza...............................2..........1-0-1.............2.............1-0-1...................4..........2-0-2
Hoppertunity.....................0...............................5.............2-1-0...................5..........2-1-0
Intenses Holiday................5...........1-0-0............3.............1-1-1...................8..........2-1-1
Wildcat Red.......................3..........2-1-0............4.............2-2-0....................7..........4-3-0
We Miss Artie....................5...........2-1-0............3.............1-1-0...................8...........3-2-0
Ride On Curlin...................5...........1-1-2............4.............1-1-2...................9...........2-2-4
Chitu................................2..........2-0-0.............2.............1-1-0...................4............3-1-0
Tapiture............................4..........1-1-2.............3..............1-1-0..................7...........2-2-2
Midnight Hawk....................1.........1-0-0..............4.............1-2-1..................5............2-2-1
Ring Weekend...................3...........0-0-2.............4.............2-2-0..................7............2-2-2
General A Rod...................2...........1-1-0.............3..............1-1-1.................5............2-2-1
Medal Count......................3...........1-0-0.............4..............2-1-1.................7............3-1-0
Candy Boy........................5...........1-2-0..............2..............1-0-1.................7...........2-2-1
Cairo Prince.......................3...........2-1-0..............2..............1-0-1.................5...........3-1-0
Uncle Sigh.........................2...........1-1-0.............3...............0-2-0.................5............1-3-0
Vinceremos........................1..........0-1-0.............4...............2-1-0.................5.............2-2-0
Harry’s Holiday....................3.........2-1-0..............5..............1-1-1.................8.............3-2-1
Commanding Curve.............4..........1-1-1..............2..............0-0-1.................6.............1-1-2
Pablo Del Monte..................3..........2-0-0.............3...............0-0-2.................6.............2-0-2
Note of Interest.................One horse, Hoppertunity did not race as a 2 year old, and I know some handicappers hold this stat in high regard.
And here is the record for those horses who have ran on the Churchill Dirt..............
Tapiture....................................3...........1-0-2
General A Rod...........................1............0-1-0
Harrys Holiday...........................2............1-1-0
Commanding Curve...................3............1-1-1
Social Inclusion.........................3..............0-1-1
Coastline.................................2..............1-1-0
Noble Moon.............................1...............1-0-0
Dublin Up................................1...............0-0-0
Ride On Curlin..........................3...............0-1-1
Ring Weekend..........................1...............0-0-1
Be well all.................
:think2: Here is a quick table showing..............
Horse.......................Avg RR....Avg CR........Best Pace 2014..........Best Pace Life...............Final Speed...............Sp Avg
.....................................................................E1 E2 Late..............E1 E2 Late.............Sp1 Sp2 Sp3 Sp4
California Chrome...........116.........116.7.........104—110—100...........104–110–105...........106–102–94–101..................101
Vicars in Trouble.............116........117.0..........101—114—94............101–114–102............104–92–88–103....................95
Wicked Strong...............117........116.9..........103—114—109...........103–114–109............103–89–80–82......................91
Chitu............................115........116.6............91—104—96...............95–104–96..............103–96–89–95......................96
Hoppertunity.................116.......116.3...........100—107—100............100–107–100.............100–99–90–92.....................96
Intense Holiday..............116.......116.2.............98—110—111..............98–110–111.............100-99-91-80......................97
Midnight Hawk...............115.......116.0.............103—106—93...............103–106–93.............100–93–95–97....................96
Samraat.......................117........117.4............107—118—109............107–118–109..............99–99–99–99.....................99
Social Inclusion.............117........116.8............111—122—106.............111-122-106..................99–106–92.....................99
Commanding Curv.........116.......115.3..............92—102—102..............92–102–102...............98–89–91–85.....................93
Wildcat Red..................118.......118.0..............102—106—99...............102–106–99..............97–100–97–96...................98
Candy Boy...................116........116.2.............102—109—98...............102–109–98................96–97–94–88...................96
General A Rod..............118.......117.8..............102—106—97................102–106–97..............95–100–96–90...................97
Uncle Sigh....................117.......116.6..............102—108—107..............102–108–107.............94–99–98–96...................97
Commissioner...............115.......116.0..............90—94—107..................90–94–107................95–88–93–88....................92
We Miss Artie................115.......115.8.............110—111—72................110-111-98................93–80–94–88....................89
Cairo Prince...................118......116.3..............92—102—109.................92–102–109..............93–98–83–95....................91
Harrys Holiday...............115......115.2..............116—115—68................116–115–93...............93–81–95–77....................90
Noble Moon..................117.......115.1..............106—115—99................106–115–99................93–95–91–86..................93
Tapiture .................................116.6...............103—102—96.................103–102–99...............99–99–95–91..................98
Ride On Curlin.........................115.2...............105—112—98.................105–112–98...............98–87–90–88...................92
Dance With Fate...........115......114.9.................96-98-103.....................96-98-103................89-88-82-85...................86
Horse.......................Avg RR....Avg CR........Best Pace 2014..........Best Pace Life...............Final Speed...............Sp Avg
.....................................................................E1 E2 Late..............E1 E2 Late.............Sp1 Sp2 Sp3 Sp4
California Chrome...........116.........116.7.........104—110—100...........104–110–105...........106–102–94–101..................101
Vicars in Trouble.............116........117.0..........101—114—94............101–114–102............104–92–88–103....................95
Wicked Strong...............117........116.9..........103—114—109...........103–114–109............103–89–80–82......................91
Chitu............................115........116.6............91—104—96...............95–104–96..............103–96–89–95......................96
Hoppertunity.................116.......116.3...........100—107—100............100–107–100.............100–99–90–92.....................96
Intense Holiday..............116.......116.2.............98—110—111..............98–110–111.............100-99-91-80......................97
Midnight Hawk...............115.......116.0.............103—106—93...............103–106–93.............100–93–95–97....................96
Samraat.......................117........117.4............107—118—109............107–118–109..............99–99–99–99.....................99
Social Inclusion.............117........116.8............111—122—106.............111-122-106..................99–106–92.....................99
Commanding Curv.........116.......115.3..............92—102—102..............92–102–102...............98–89–91–85.....................93
Wildcat Red..................118.......118.0..............102—106—99...............102–106–99..............97–100–97–96...................98
Candy Boy...................116........116.2.............102—109—98...............102–109–98................96–97–94–88...................96
General A Rod..............118.......117.8..............102—106—97................102–106–97..............95–100–96–90...................97
Uncle Sigh....................117.......116.6..............102—108—107..............102–108–107.............94–99–98–96...................97
Commissioner...............115.......116.0..............90—94—107..................90–94–107................95–88–93–88....................92
We Miss Artie................115.......115.8.............110—111—72................110-111-98................93–80–94–88....................89
Cairo Prince...................118......116.3..............92—102—109.................92–102–109..............93–98–83–95....................91
Harrys Holiday...............115......115.2..............116—115—68................116–115–93...............93–81–95–77....................90
Noble Moon..................117.......115.1..............106—115—99................106–115–99................93–95–91–86..................93
Tapiture .................................116.6...............103—102—96.................103–102–99...............99–99–95–91..................98
Ride On Curlin.........................115.2...............105—112—98.................105–112–98...............98–87–90–88...................92
Dance With Fate...........115......114.9.................96-98-103.....................96-98-103................89-88-82-85...................86
hno: After doing a little crunching and deciphering, it's time to throw these out there....................will be curious to see how my mind changes over the next 2 weeks with whatever happens to these horses as the post time nears..................... but for now......My top 6 as of April 17, .................
Wicked Strong ( 7-1)
.....................unlike most of the field who I expect to have a tough time with the final furlong and such, I believe he will flourish down the stretch as long as he can weave thru the traffic
California Chrome ( 5-2 )
..................... has to be included, and if the ‘fastest’ horse normally wins the derby, then this is the one...............but we know otherwise that come the first Saturday in May, the fastest horse normally isn’t the one wearing the roses.
Hoppertunity ( 9-1)
.....................except the ‘curse’ of not racing as a 2 year old, like his chances, and think he will like the distance as well................had back to back solid efforts in the Rebel and SA and should have M Smith on board again
Cairo Prince ( 15-1)
....................... throw out his poor Fla derby.................he has talent and could have an explosive stretch run in him
Samraat ( 15-1 )
.......................this guy is a fighter, and is always there at the end.............his beyers are improving and I think he has a great shot at the title
General A Rod ( 20-1 )
.......................think if he can relax early in this derby, and does not chase Wildcat Red around , he will have enough left in the tank for a big run down the stretch
Outside looking in to break into the top 6....
................Ride On Curlin, .........Medal Count, ...........Chitu, ..........Vicar’s In Trouble, .............Tapiture
The odds that I list are just what I believe the morning lines might be , and these 6 selections are just the beginning of my thought process........I just wanted to throw them out there for any comments on your end......................... a lot can happen in the next two weeks or so,.......what a great time of year, this is !
A few I like early with some thoughts...
Ride on Curlin...been right there all spring with 2 shows and a place in 3 prep races. Bred for the distance and gets "Mr. Churchill Downs" Calvin Borel back aboard who was aboard him for both his wins. Sitting on a big race I think...
Cairo Prince...finished a respectable 4th in Flirida Derby, his first race in over 2 months. Also bred for the distance and he will improve off that last performance and be a factor.
Wicked Strong...ran big in the Wood and has the perfect running style for he derby. Should handle the distance being by Hard Spun, out if a Charadmatic mare, and unless he bounces off that big last out effort he should be comming strong down the stretch.
Vicar's in Trouble...I'm not usually big on front runners and I think this one will be forward my placed but something about this horse I like. Every race I watch him run he just seems to have so much energy still comming down the stretch. I don't think he can win but can see this one fighting down the stretch and possibly getting a piece.
Wildcat Red...the horse I really liked for the derby was Constitution who battled Wildcat Red in a great stretch duel in the Florida Derby. Since Constitution is out now I can't help but keep watching that Florida Derby race and love this horse. Then I watched some of his other races and this horse does nothing but run good races every race. I like his chances at a good price.
Ride on Curlin...been right there all spring with 2 shows and a place in 3 prep races. Bred for the distance and gets "Mr. Churchill Downs" Calvin Borel back aboard who was aboard him for both his wins. Sitting on a big race I think...
Cairo Prince...finished a respectable 4th in Flirida Derby, his first race in over 2 months. Also bred for the distance and he will improve off that last performance and be a factor.
Wicked Strong...ran big in the Wood and has the perfect running style for he derby. Should handle the distance being by Hard Spun, out if a Charadmatic mare, and unless he bounces off that big last out effort he should be comming strong down the stretch.
Vicar's in Trouble...I'm not usually big on front runners and I think this one will be forward my placed but something about this horse I like. Every race I watch him run he just seems to have so much energy still comming down the stretch. I don't think he can win but can see this one fighting down the stretch and possibly getting a piece.
Wildcat Red...the horse I really liked for the derby was Constitution who battled Wildcat Red in a great stretch duel in the Florida Derby. Since Constitution is out now I can't help but keep watching that Florida Derby race and love this horse. Then I watched some of his other races and this horse does nothing but run good races every race. I like his chances at a good price.
11b - I hope all is well... Here we go again my friend. Lets hit this thing!
My top 5 as of April 17th
California Chrome... Hard to go against this guy with how he has looked in his last 2 preps...Fouled: February 18th, 2011........Dosage: 3.40..Jockey: Victor Espinoza..Derby Record with 5 mounts: 1-0-1
Dance with Fate... This Raise A Native sire line contender has the potential for another great performance to either win or place...Fouled: February 16th, 2011.....Dosage: 1.91.. It still remains uncertain if he will participate but its likely Jockey: Corey Nakatani would him ride if he does go.. Is this finally Corey's year?? Derby Record with 16 mounts: 0-1-0
Medal Count.. Another one out of the Blue Grass Stakes I like, just my thoughts but I think he may like the extra distance...Fouled: May 1st 2011..Dosage: 2.13.. Jockey: Robby Albardo is also looking to capture his first derby victory after more than a dozen attempts.. Derby Record with 13 mounts: 0-1-2
Chitu...I don't think is getting the credit he deserves, which is fine with me. I will gladly take those odds...Fouled: March 18, 2011...Dosage: 2.56....Jockey Martin Garcia..Derby Record with 2 mounts: 0-0-0
Danza... Who's the Boss?? He was ignored at 41-1 and I refuse to let it happen again..I would not be surprised if he hits the board.. Fouled: April 17th, 2011..Dosage: 3.00.. Jockey: Joe Bravo.. Derby Record with 2 mounts: 0-0-0
Here's a nice angle from AHP going back 20 years for us to consider..
What month were most derby horses born in??
Jan - 1 of 20
Feb - 8 of 20
Mar - 3 of 20
Apr - 6 of 20
May - 2 of 20
Keep in mind as you might already know, only 5 Derby winners since 1929 have managed to win the Derby with a Dosage higher than 4.00..Making Cairo Prince with dosage of 7.00 and Vicar's In Trouble with a dosage of 5.00 automatic tosses for me.. The only concerns about Wicked Strong are 1) He hasn't finished in the money in at least 2 prep races as a 3 year old..This may seem insignificant but the truth is, since 1993 Mine that Bird was the only contender who has been able to do it.. The other concern is he hasn't been 1st or 2nd at the 8th pole in either one of his final 2 races, which is another strong factor to consider as no horse has won the Kentucky Derby in recent memory who wasn't 1st or 2nd at the 8th pole in either of their final preps.... Thought I would point that out, but who knows..Stranger things have happened:think2:.. True story.. My grandmother has a dream before the night of the 2005 Derby to bet the # 18..All her plays had the #18 aka Closing Argument.. She also loves gray horses and likes the name aka Giacomo.. $1 tri box 18-10 all..10-18 all... and the dream earns 66K...
My top 5 as of April 17th
California Chrome... Hard to go against this guy with how he has looked in his last 2 preps...Fouled: February 18th, 2011........Dosage: 3.40..Jockey: Victor Espinoza..Derby Record with 5 mounts: 1-0-1
Dance with Fate... This Raise A Native sire line contender has the potential for another great performance to either win or place...Fouled: February 16th, 2011.....Dosage: 1.91.. It still remains uncertain if he will participate but its likely Jockey: Corey Nakatani would him ride if he does go.. Is this finally Corey's year?? Derby Record with 16 mounts: 0-1-0
Medal Count.. Another one out of the Blue Grass Stakes I like, just my thoughts but I think he may like the extra distance...Fouled: May 1st 2011..Dosage: 2.13.. Jockey: Robby Albardo is also looking to capture his first derby victory after more than a dozen attempts.. Derby Record with 13 mounts: 0-1-2
Chitu...I don't think is getting the credit he deserves, which is fine with me. I will gladly take those odds...Fouled: March 18, 2011...Dosage: 2.56....Jockey Martin Garcia..Derby Record with 2 mounts: 0-0-0
Danza... Who's the Boss?? He was ignored at 41-1 and I refuse to let it happen again..I would not be surprised if he hits the board.. Fouled: April 17th, 2011..Dosage: 3.00.. Jockey: Joe Bravo.. Derby Record with 2 mounts: 0-0-0
Here's a nice angle from AHP going back 20 years for us to consider..
What month were most derby horses born in??
Jan - 1 of 20
Feb - 8 of 20
Mar - 3 of 20
Apr - 6 of 20
May - 2 of 20
Keep in mind as you might already know, only 5 Derby winners since 1929 have managed to win the Derby with a Dosage higher than 4.00..Making Cairo Prince with dosage of 7.00 and Vicar's In Trouble with a dosage of 5.00 automatic tosses for me.. The only concerns about Wicked Strong are 1) He hasn't finished in the money in at least 2 prep races as a 3 year old..This may seem insignificant but the truth is, since 1993 Mine that Bird was the only contender who has been able to do it.. The other concern is he hasn't been 1st or 2nd at the 8th pole in either one of his final 2 races, which is another strong factor to consider as no horse has won the Kentucky Derby in recent memory who wasn't 1st or 2nd at the 8th pole in either of their final preps.... Thought I would point that out, but who knows..Stranger things have happened:think2:.. True story.. My grandmother has a dream before the night of the 2005 Derby to bet the # 18..All her plays had the #18 aka Closing Argument.. She also loves gray horses and likes the name aka Giacomo.. $1 tri box 18-10 all..10-18 all... and the dream earns 66K...
wabashwonders ,
Some good stuff.......................love it......................didn't know that Calvin was going to be on Ride On Curlin, you always have to seriously consider any horse that he sits on while at Churchill..........and Vicar's in Trouble might have Rosie in the saddle...........she's going to bring one of these in one day.
Thanks again....................this is what it's all about..............
GoodfellaLV,
Hello again back at you, my friend................all is well because it's that time of the year.............like your top 5 and the comments..................The dosage is definitely a factor and you hit it on the head................
Thanks for the interesting AHP angle..............
Thanks again...........this is what is all about..........................SHARING WHAT WE GOT to hit this race and cash some tickets .......and maybe even sign some of those dreaded IRS forms........ looking forward to your plays as we get closer...
:think2: Now that Goodfella mentioned the Dosage Factor in his post, let's look at the Dosage of some of the other entries also...........
Dosage Index for the following Horses...........
Midnight Hawk.............................0.71
Samraat.....................................1.22
Noble Moon................................1.58
Candy Boy.................................1.67
Dance With Fate.........................1.91
Harry’s Holiday...........................2.00
General A Rod...........................2.00
Medal Count..............................2.13
Wicked Strong..........................2.27
Chitu........................................2.56
Hoppertunity.............................2.64
Danza......................................3.00
We Miss Artie............................3.00
Tapiture...................................3.00
Ring Weekend..........................3.36
California Chrome.....................3.40
Intense Holiday.........................3.80
Vicar’s In Trouble.....................5.00
Wildcat Red.............................5.67
Cairo Prince.............................7.00
And a little history for this number...............
[h=1]Dosage Index[/h]This is by far the most popular way of winnowing out who can make the Derby distance of 1 1/4 miles and who can't. A simple explanation is that dosage figures a given contender's distance potential based on stallions from the first 4 generations of that horse's pedigree. It's a genetically-based theory that takes into account not only how well certain ancestors of the horse did, but also how far back in the horse's line they are. Points are awarded for speed and stamina of top-notch horses that often appear in contenders' pedigrees. These super stallions are called "chefs de race." Any horse with a dosage of 4.00 or less is supposed to be able to make the derby distance. So far, since the derby began in 1875, only four winners have had dosages higher than 4.00; however, all of those were relatively recently. They were Strike The Gold in 1991, Real Quiet in 1998, Charismatic in 1999 and Giacomo in 2005. Because of a reclassification of his sire, Strike the Gold would now qualify.
Dosage Index for the following Horses...........
Midnight Hawk.............................0.71
Samraat.....................................1.22
Noble Moon................................1.58
Candy Boy.................................1.67
Dance With Fate.........................1.91
Harry’s Holiday...........................2.00
General A Rod...........................2.00
Medal Count..............................2.13
Wicked Strong..........................2.27
Chitu........................................2.56
Hoppertunity.............................2.64
Danza......................................3.00
We Miss Artie............................3.00
Tapiture...................................3.00
Ring Weekend..........................3.36
California Chrome.....................3.40
Intense Holiday.........................3.80
Vicar’s In Trouble.....................5.00
Wildcat Red.............................5.67
Cairo Prince.............................7.00
And a little history for this number...............
[h=1]Dosage Index[/h]This is by far the most popular way of winnowing out who can make the Derby distance of 1 1/4 miles and who can't. A simple explanation is that dosage figures a given contender's distance potential based on stallions from the first 4 generations of that horse's pedigree. It's a genetically-based theory that takes into account not only how well certain ancestors of the horse did, but also how far back in the horse's line they are. Points are awarded for speed and stamina of top-notch horses that often appear in contenders' pedigrees. These super stallions are called "chefs de race." Any horse with a dosage of 4.00 or less is supposed to be able to make the derby distance. So far, since the derby began in 1875, only four winners have had dosages higher than 4.00; however, all of those were relatively recently. They were Strike The Gold in 1991, Real Quiet in 1998, Charismatic in 1999 and Giacomo in 2005. Because of a reclassification of his sire, Strike the Gold would now qualify.
