TCG,
You might be right on the nose with this one........................seems that if the favorite doesn't win, he normally fades to out of the money......................and that will create some nice exotic payouts............
But boy, he does look like the real thing, doesn't he......................
If anyone has the results of when was the last time a horse won the derby from post #1?
Hndfulprls,
You are very welcome............................glad to see that this information may be helpful to you......................that was the main reason that I started to post this thread a few years ago................just to share as much information as possible to help handicap this 'big race' and for the other triple crown races................but especially for the Derby................
Also to be able to share and shoot the breeze with all of you fellow 'cappers' out there. I love this sport and always have since I was a youngster................nothing better to me than this time of the year................and we have some wonderful contributors ( except for one or two clowns ) to this thread year after year ......
Looking forward to your plays as post time nears.....................don't forget to post them ..............and maybe one of us can hit this big boy..............
....Be Well...
Cali Chrome looks really good.......if he gets a good post position, I can't see him losing.
I have been reading in a lot of the workout threads, where these horses are coming around and staring at this jumbo tron. I have a couple questions for those a lot more experience than me.
1- Do you think this will have an impact?
2- Will adding blinkers help with this?
3- Will adding blinkers to a horse who really doesn't need them just for the sake of the tron impact the horse?
4- And the big question, how will this thing impact a horse who does not work out here and all of a sudden sees it in the derby?
Sorry if these questions really have no impact on the race, but with the favorite (I believe this to be the case with CC) not having any workouts a CD it just crossed my mind.
1- Do you think this will have an impact?
2- Will adding blinkers help with this?
3- Will adding blinkers to a horse who really doesn't need them just for the sake of the tron impact the horse?
4- And the big question, how will this thing impact a horse who does not work out here and all of a sudden sees it in the derby?
Sorry if these questions really have no impact on the race, but with the favorite (I believe this to be the case with CC) not having any workouts a CD it just crossed my mind.
Palace malice was blinkered last year as a kinda experiment and it made him go bezerk on the front head...experiment over for Belmont and horse cantors home in the Belmont...
all of the hoopla at Churchill does have an effect..the noise..the extra time...doesnt effect everyone but its for sure a distraction for some...
I dont know if you can really handicap that..from what I can remember nobody jumped out as being a head case in this field...now if tap it rich would have gotten in that would have been your headcase horse
all of the hoopla at Churchill does have an effect..the noise..the extra time...doesnt effect everyone but its for sure a distraction for some...
I dont know if you can really handicap that..from what I can remember nobody jumped out as being a head case in this field...now if tap it rich would have gotten in that would have been your headcase horse
Found some useful data from another site.
Measuring the Major Derby Preps, 1952 to 2013
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0As0U7aGaGxO9dFdLRGFfN01TZVpoYUlMc2pNdTdBcVE#gid=5
Measuring the Major Derby Preps, 1952 to 2013
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0As0U7aGaGxO9dFdLRGFfN01TZVpoYUlMc2pNdTdBcVE#gid=5
Flowchart for the Major Derby preps - Track\Race\Chart\Winner\Race replay
http://www.gliffy.com/go/publish/5635353
http://www.gliffy.com/go/publish/5635353
#%() Here is a quick quiz.......................well kind of a quiz I guess,
What do these following horses ( Candy Boy, Danza, General A Rod, Hoppertunity, Ride On Curlin, Vinceramos ) have in common heading into the derby ?
..........answer...................they are all KY bred, they all have the RAN Sire line , and they all have 2 or fewer strikes ( Jon White Strikes )
Then is there any horse which has 0 strikes, KY bred, and some RAN line ?
..........answer....................only one, Intense Holiday ( KY bred, RAN DamSire line, 0 strikes )...........
Will this year's winner be one of these seven possible entries ?
..........answer..................... to be decided in about 9 days time.......................
Just wanted to throw this out there..........
What do these following horses ( Candy Boy, Danza, General A Rod, Hoppertunity, Ride On Curlin, Vinceramos ) have in common heading into the derby ?
..........answer...................they are all KY bred, they all have the RAN Sire line , and they all have 2 or fewer strikes ( Jon White Strikes )
Then is there any horse which has 0 strikes, KY bred, and some RAN line ?
..........answer....................only one, Intense Holiday ( KY bred, RAN DamSire line, 0 strikes )...........
Will this year's winner be one of these seven possible entries ?
..........answer..................... to be decided in about 9 days time.......................
Just wanted to throw this out there..........
I read an article where Jon White was at the track & a guy walked up to him & asked how many strikes Cali Chrome had, Strike smiled & said zero.......that was the end of that discussion.
Ride on Curlin & General Rod have never won a graded stakes race so I wouldn't touch them for the win spot.
Ride on Curlin & General Rod have never won a graded stakes race so I wouldn't touch them for the win spot.
:think2: .......An interesting couple of paragraphs.......................
California Chrome heads into the Run for the Roses following four consecutive victories by a combined 24 1/4 lengths. He won the King Glorious on synthetic footing last Dec. 22, the final day of racing in the history of Hollywood Park, before taking Santa Anita’s California Cup Derby, San Felipe and Santa Anita Derby on dirt.
Trained by Art Sherman, who was an exercise rider for 1955 Kentucky Derby winner Swaps, California Chrome is attempting to become the first California-bred to win the roses since in 1962. Only three Cal-breds have ever won the Kentucky Derby: Morvich in 1922, Swaps in 1955 and Decidedly in 1962.
As Daily Racing Form executive columnist Jay Hovdey recently pointed out, “the last time a racehorse born in the Golden State won the Derby was 1962, when a Catholic was president, Cuba had missiles, and gasoline was 25 cents a gallon.”
Man, that 25 cents a gallon makes me want to cry after I filled up my tank and paid $4.31 a gallon the other day.
Considering California Chrome will be the chalk, one wonders how the favorite has fared in the Kentucky Derby the past 10 years. In the last decade, the favorite has won 40% of the time:
Year Favorite (Odds) Finished
2013 Orb (5-1) 1st
2012 Bodemeister (4-1) 2nd
2011 Dialed In (5-1) 8th
2010 Lookin At Lucky (6-1) 6th
2009 Friesan Fire (7-2) 18th
2008 Big Brown (2-1) 1st
2007 Street Sense (9-2) 1st
2006 Sweetnorthernsaint (5-1) 7th
2005 Bellamy Road (5-2) 7th
2004 Smarty Jones (4-1) 1st
2003 Empire Maker (5-2) 2nd
California Chrome heads into the Run for the Roses following four consecutive victories by a combined 24 1/4 lengths. He won the King Glorious on synthetic footing last Dec. 22, the final day of racing in the history of Hollywood Park, before taking Santa Anita’s California Cup Derby, San Felipe and Santa Anita Derby on dirt.
Trained by Art Sherman, who was an exercise rider for 1955 Kentucky Derby winner Swaps, California Chrome is attempting to become the first California-bred to win the roses since in 1962. Only three Cal-breds have ever won the Kentucky Derby: Morvich in 1922, Swaps in 1955 and Decidedly in 1962.
As Daily Racing Form executive columnist Jay Hovdey recently pointed out, “the last time a racehorse born in the Golden State won the Derby was 1962, when a Catholic was president, Cuba had missiles, and gasoline was 25 cents a gallon.”
Man, that 25 cents a gallon makes me want to cry after I filled up my tank and paid $4.31 a gallon the other day.
Considering California Chrome will be the chalk, one wonders how the favorite has fared in the Kentucky Derby the past 10 years. In the last decade, the favorite has won 40% of the time:
Year Favorite (Odds) Finished
2013 Orb (5-1) 1st
2012 Bodemeister (4-1) 2nd
2011 Dialed In (5-1) 8th
2010 Lookin At Lucky (6-1) 6th
2009 Friesan Fire (7-2) 18th
2008 Big Brown (2-1) 1st
2007 Street Sense (9-2) 1st
2006 Sweetnorthernsaint (5-1) 7th
2005 Bellamy Road (5-2) 7th
2004 Smarty Jones (4-1) 1st
2003 Empire Maker (5-2) 2nd
Also, Barbaro was the ML favorite in 2006 & was the favorite during derby day until someone put several hundred thousand on Sweet Northern. IMO, Barbaro should have been easily 3--1, if you look at his undefeated races, he was a monster going into the derby, going offat 6-1 was s super gift!
:aktion033 I just finished speaking to one of my friends today, ( if you followed this thread for the last few years, we are the 5 'phantom' guys that pool all of our 'monopoly money' together to play all the wagers ).......and I was able to get the X Factor of the contenders earlier than last year................ so here it goes, .............A big thank you to my friend ........................
The following horses have the X Factor......................
- California Chrome
- Chitu
- General A Rod
- Ride On Curlin
- Uncle Sigh
- We Miss Artie
- Wildcat Red
And now a little history on perhaps , the Greatest of All Time............
Today, the normal weight of a horse’s heart is 8.5 pounds. Even though Secretariat’s heart was not weighed at autopsy, Dr. Thomas Swerczek, head pathologist at the University of Kentucky, estimated it at 22 pounds after finding the second-largest heart in Sham (Secretariat’s Triple Crown rival) and weighing it at 18 pounds.
"I have done thousands of autopsies, and I had noticed differences in heart size in horses before we did Secretariat," Swerczek said. "I had picked up the difference in the male and female hearts and noticed that some were bigger than others.
"But I didn’t pay much attention until Secretariat came along. He was completely out of everybody else’s league. Looking back at what he had done, it was easy to put a connection to it. The heart was what made him able to do what he did. It explained how he was able to do what he did in the Belmont Stakes – a mile and a half race (Secretariat won by 31 lengths in track-record time). You would have to have a large heart to do what he did. It would be impossible for a horse with a small heart to do that."
Recalling the moment Secretariat’s heart was uncovered, Swerczek said, "We just stood there in stunned silence. We couldn’t believe it. The heart was perfect. There were no problems with it. It was just this huge engine."
........wow................enough said.............
The following horses have the X Factor......................
- California Chrome
- Chitu
- General A Rod
- Ride On Curlin
- Uncle Sigh
- We Miss Artie
- Wildcat Red
And now a little history on perhaps , the Greatest of All Time............
Today, the normal weight of a horse’s heart is 8.5 pounds. Even though Secretariat’s heart was not weighed at autopsy, Dr. Thomas Swerczek, head pathologist at the University of Kentucky, estimated it at 22 pounds after finding the second-largest heart in Sham (Secretariat’s Triple Crown rival) and weighing it at 18 pounds.
"I have done thousands of autopsies, and I had noticed differences in heart size in horses before we did Secretariat," Swerczek said. "I had picked up the difference in the male and female hearts and noticed that some were bigger than others.
"But I didn’t pay much attention until Secretariat came along. He was completely out of everybody else’s league. Looking back at what he had done, it was easy to put a connection to it. The heart was what made him able to do what he did. It explained how he was able to do what he did in the Belmont Stakes – a mile and a half race (Secretariat won by 31 lengths in track-record time). You would have to have a large heart to do what he did. It would be impossible for a horse with a small heart to do that."
Recalling the moment Secretariat’s heart was uncovered, Swerczek said, "We just stood there in stunned silence. We couldn’t believe it. The heart was perfect. There were no problems with it. It was just this huge engine."
........wow................enough said.............
If you follow & wager & want to know who the dual qualifiers are in this years derby, there are only 3:
Tapiture
We Miss Artie
Dance With Fate
Tapiture
We Miss Artie
Dance With Fate
