2014 Kentucky Derby Thoughts

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tanner, rweading 11 blacks stuff here is like reading the form....handicapping materials.....if u don't like it go somewhere else......wtf.........I enjoy this shit and always will........thanks for your time black

kbrod66,

You are very welcome, as I thoroughly enjoy putting time into this............................and I appreciate your comments about that individual..................................I said it before and I will keep on saying it.................once an ahole, always an ahole.....................what a clown he has been thru the years..................

But on a finer note................................thanks for all that you contribute to this thread now and in the past ........................and A BIG THANKS TO ALL OF YOU OUT THERE...................I TRULY APPRECIATE GETTING TOGETHER AND SHOOTING THE 'HORSE SHIT' WITH YOU ALL................... this is what it's about and hopefully , maybe we can all put something together and hit this thing.................2 weeks to go now..............
 

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Here are the current standings midnight hawk more then likely defecting (ran yesterday in Illinois losing) tapirure still undecided...cutoff is top 20. Earnings break ties
 

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Cali chrome
vicars in trouble
dance with fate
wicked strong
samraat
danza
hoppertunity
intense holiday
wildcat red
we miss artie
ride on curlin
chitu
tapiture
midnight hawk (probably not going)
ring weekend
general a rod
medal count
candy boy
uncle sigh
vinceramos

harrys holiday
 

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Birthplace of Kentucky Derby Winners

Kentucky (106)
Orb 2013
I'll Have Another 2012
Animal Kingdom 2011
Super Saver 2010
Mine That Bird 2009
Big Brown 2008
Street Sense 2007


what about exterminator who was born in kentucky in 1915 and went on and won the derby in 1918 he was sold to some people in ny as a work horse for sun brier but ended up run ning in the derby at 30-1 his grave is about 10 miles from my house
 

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JP,

Exterminator would also be included in the 106 winners bred from Kentucky... For anyone interested, here is a list of where all of the KD 140 contenders are from...
Happy Easter and 420 to everyone. Enjoy!puff_>>


Kentucky (15)
Candy Boy
Chitu
Commanding Curve (On the bubble)
Danza
General A Rod
Harry's Holiday (On the bubble)
Hoppertunity
Intense Holiday
Medal Count
Midnight Hawk (May not go)
Ride On Curlin
Ring Weekend
Tapiture
Vinceremos
Wicked Strong

Florida (2)
Dance With Fate
Wildcat Red

New York (2)
Samraat
Uncle Sigh

California (1)

California Chrome

Canada (1)
We Miss Artie

Louisiana (1)
Vicar's In Trouble

 
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JP,

Exterminator would also be included in the 106 winners bred from Kentucky... For anyone interested, here is a list of where all of the KD 140 contenders are from...
Happy Easter and 420 to everyone. Enjoy!puff_>>


Kentucky (15)
Candy Boy
Chitu
Commanding Curve (On the bubble)
Danza
General A Rod
Harry's Holiday (On the bubble)
Hoppertunity
Intense Holiday
Medal Count
Midnight Hawk (May not go)
Ride On Curlin
Ring Weekend
Tapiture
Vinceremos
Wicked Strong

Florida (2)
Dance With Fate
Wildcat Red

New York (2)
Samraat
Uncle Sigh

California (1)

California Chrome

Canada (1)
We Miss Artie

Louisiana (1)
Vicar's In Trouble

Good stuff.............................another piece of the puzzle...................thanks..............
 
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:think2: Less than 2 weeks to go now...........as the picture becomes a little clearer..........


Here are the Late Pace Numbers...............something I thing is important with the added distance that all of the boys must get...

................................Highest Lifetime Posted Late Pace Rating

Intense Holiday............................111
Wicked Strong.............................109
Samraat......................................109
Uncle Sigh....................................107
Bayern........................................107
Danza..........................................106
Social Inclusion.............................106
California Chrome.........................105
Dance With Fate..........................103
Vicars In Trouble.........................102
Commanding Curve.....................102
Ride On Curlin.............................101
Hoppertunity...............................100
Tapiture......................................99
Wildcat Red.................................99
We Miss Artie..............................98
Candy Boy...................................98
General A Rod..............................97
Chitu...........................................96
Vinceremos...................................95
Medal Count.................................94
Midnight Hawk...............................93
Harry’s Holiday..............................93
Pablo Del Monte.............................92
Schivarelli......................................91
Ring Weekend...............................90


.....................................My Ratings For Late Pace


Danza...................................................99.3
Dance With Fate....................................99.0
Bayern..................................................98.0
California Chrome..................................96.6
Commissioner.......................................95.3
Hoppertunity..........................................95.3
Wicked Strong.......................................95.0
Wildcat Red...........................................94.0
General A Rod.......................................93.6
Commanding Curve................................93.6
Tapiture................................................93.3
Constitution...........................................92.6
Intense Holiday......................................92.3
Vicars In Trouble...................................92.0
Chitu....................................................92.0
Candy Boy............................................89.6
Medal Count..........................................88.6
Dublin Up.............................................88.3
Social Inclusion.....................................87.3
Ring Weekend.......................................86.3
Bobbys Kitten.......................................84.0
 
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:howdy: Just in case we happen to see some of the wet stuff come Derby Day.............


............................................Horses Which Have Tested The Wet Stuff

...............................................# Races............Record

Vicar’s In Trouble..............................1................1-0-0
Wicked Strong..................................1................0-1-0
Samraat...........................................1................1-0-0
Hoppertunity....................................1................1-0-0
Ride On Curlin...................................2................1-0-1
Tapiture...........................................1................0-1-0
Ring Weekend..................................1................0-0-0
Uncle Sigh.......................................1.................0-1-0
Vinceremos......................................1.................0-1-0
Commanding Curve...........................1.................0-0-0


Probably going to be shuffling my top 6 later this week as one of my plays, Cairo Prince is no more..........

................Be well all.....................HOPE EVERYONE HAD A WONDERFUL AND BLESSED EASTER YESTERDAY.....
 
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:think2: And here is a little Quick Sheet that I like to glance at every now and then..........it lists the Beyers, Speeds , Late Pace numbers , and I either place a 'yes' or 'no' if I believe that they are improving on these numbers in their recent races..................also lists if I believe that the horse has improved his position into the stretch and from the stretch to the finish.........

Again, this is not a perfect science chart or anything close to it, but just something I glance at if I am tossed between two or three entries.........


................................Beyer Better...............Speed Better.........Late Pace Better.............Before Stretch Improve........Stretch Improve

California Chrome...............No..............................Yes............................No..........................................Yes..................................Yes
Vicar’s In Trouble...............No..............................Yes............................No..........................................Yes...................................No
Dance With Fate................Yes.............................Yes............................Yes.........................................Yes...................................No
Wicked Strong..................Yes..............................Yes............................No..........................................No...................................No
Samraat............................Yes.............................Yes............................No.........................................Yes..................................Yes
Danza...............................No................................No............................No..........................................No..................................Yes
Hoppertunity......................No...............................Yes...........................No..........................................Yes.................................Yes
Intense Holiday...................No..............................Yes............................No..........................................No...................................No
We Miss Artie......................No...............................No.............................No..........................................No.................................No
Ride On Curlin.....................No...............................No.............................Yes.........................................No.................................No
Candy Boy..........................No...............................No..............................No.........................................No..................................No
Uncle Sigh...........................No...............................No..............................No.........................................No.................................No
Vinceremos.........................No................................No..............................No.........................................No................................No
Harry’s Holiday.....................No...............................No..............................No.........................................No................................No
Commanding Curve..............Yes...............................No..............................No........................................Yes...............................No
Chitu...................................Yes.............................Yes.............................Yes........................................Yes...............................No
Tapiture...............................No..............................Yes.............................Yes........................................Yes...............................No
Midnight Hawk......................Yes...............................No.............................No..........................................No...............................No
Ring Weekend.......................No...............................No..............................No........................................Yes...............................No
General A Rod.......................No...............................No..............................No........................................No................................Yes
Medal Count.........................Yes..............................No................................No........................................No................................No
Pablo Del Monte....................Yes..............................No................................No.........................................No...............................No


........Ok................so there are 3 horse with 4 Yes’s .............Dance With Fate, Samraat, and Chitu...............

..............................And .........We Miss Artie, Candy Boy, Uncle Sigh, Vinceremos, Harry’s Holiday had zero Yes’s
 

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Earlier we looked at the Negative Kentucky Derby trends and tried to eliminate horses, but what about the positive angles that are alive on Derby day. A forum user on a number of horse race forums over the years named MoneyLineExpress posts every year with some of his criteria for making a solid Derby horse. He has been able to narrow down his list to a short list of 5 that has included the Derby winner in it each time I have read it. I have used some of those criteria for this purpose here.

Give a point to any horse that won a mile of longer as a 2 year old.
Wicked Strong
Samraat
Intense Holiday
We Miss Artie
Tapiture
Medal Count
Candy Boy
Uncle Sigh
Commanding Curve

Next is to give a point to any horse which ran one of its best 2 speed figures in its last race.
California Chrome
Vicar’s in Trouble
Dance With Fate
Wicked Strong
Samraat
Danza
Candy Boy
Hoppertunity
Intense Holiday
We Miss Artie
Ride On Curlin
Chitu
Medal Count
Commanding Curve

Give points to horses which raced against grades stakes competition prior to the 100 point prep races that began on Marth 28th as 3 year olds.
California Chrome
Vicar’s in Trouble
Dance With Fate
Wicked Strong
Samraat
Hoppertunity
Intense Holiday
WildCat Red
We Miss Artie
Ride On Curlin
Chitu
Tapiture
Ring Weekend
General A Rod
Medal Count
Candy Boy
Cairo Prince
Uncle Sigh
Commanding Curve
Harry’s Holiday
Vinceremos

Give a point to a hose that has won a graded stakes race.
California Chrome
Vicar’s in Trouble
Dance With Fate
Wicked Strong
Samraat
Danza
Hoppertunity
Intense Holiday
WildCat Red
We Miss Artie
Chitu
Tapiture
Ring Weekend
Medal Count
Candy Boy
Cairo Prince
Vinceremos

The horses finish position in both of his last two starts was no worse than the position the horse was at when they hit the eigth pole.
California Chrome
Wicked Strong
Samraat
Danza
Hoppertunity
Intense Holiday
WildCat Red
Tapiture
Ring
Weekend
General A Rod
Medal Count
Candy Boy
Cairo Prince
Uncle Sigh
Vinceremos


Who won?

Samraat 5
Intense Holiday 5
Medal Count 5
Wicked Strong 5
Candy Boy 5
California Chrome 4
We Miss Artie 4
Hoppertunity 4
Tapiture 4
Cairo Prince 4
Dance With Fate 3
WildCat Red 3
Vicar’s In Trouble 3
Chitu 3
Danza 3
Ring Weekend 3
*Commanding Curve 3
Uncle Sigh 3
*Vinceremos 3
Ride On Curlin 2
General A Rod 2
*Harry’s Holiday 1
 

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Chitu going to the derby trial...commanding curve now in. Chitu could obviously run back on a week off but highly unlikely
 

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Friend owns a piece of Ring Master, bleed last race at Calder, will train later this week and if comeback clean goes to the gate
 

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Do we have an official 20 horse field yet and where can I get PP's for the 20 horses if its out yet. Thxs in adavance
 
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Do we have an official 20 horse field yet and where can I get PP's for the 20 horses if its out yet. Thxs in adavance

Gravy...........

Nothing official as yet............still around 26 ................could get PP's on Brisnet for free...............
 

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Friend owns a piece of Ring Master, bleed last race at Calder, will train later this week and if comeback clean goes to the gate

ring weekend didn't need the race at Calder...he was already in the derby before the race so I suspect he wasn't fully cranked. I dont have any feelings on ring weekend but I will say that Calder is a deep tiring racetrack so take that for what its worth
 

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Do we have an official 20 horse field yet and where can I get PP's for the 20 horses if its out yet. Thxs in adavance

things get real next Wednesday...the way they are dropping we might have 20.different horses by then
 
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[FONT=verdana,ariel,helvetica,sans serif]:) Read an article a few weeks ago, believe it was written a few years ago, but has some interesting simple points that are valid today.

Here are some simple rules of trying to select a horse for the Derby...........some of these will help in weaning the field if you are stuck................

[/FONT]


  • [FONT=verdana,ariel,helvetica,sans serif]
    [*]Don't pick a horse with a trainer or jockey making his first trip to the Derby. The stress of the media blitz is generally too much for them and they will make fatal mistakes.
    [*]Don't pick a horse with a new jockey. You really need to know your horse in a race like that so it isn't the place to pick someone getting on the horse for the first time. You might be able to make exceptions to this for some of the top jockeys but I still regard it as a negative factor even then.
    [*]Although it has been broken in recent years, picking a dual qualifier is still a good idea. Don't let it blind you to other horses though as the way trainers are running horses is changing and the Experimental Free Handicap won't be as important in the future, in my opinion.
    [*]Don't ignore dosage but don't follow it blindly. Look for a horse with a dosage profile that is highest in the middle giving it the classic bell shaped curve look. Try to stay away from horses with no stamina numbers (the two right most position in the profile). Where you should make exceptions is for horses with "young" pedigrees, ones with mostly younger horses in the early generations that haven't made it into the chef de race list yet to contribute to dosage figures. This year there are quite a few with nice dosage profiles.
    [*]Stay away from horses with no two year old starts and/or fewer than 6 starts lifetime. This may change in the future though because horses are not racing as much in general as in the past.
    [*]Your pick should have finished in the money in his last pre-Derby start. Since 1957, only Sea Hero and Thunder Gulch have broken this and they were both 4th in their final prep. A strong late move in that race is a big plus.
    [*]Your pick must be a stakes winner and have run in at least one 1 1/8 mile prep race. He must have either 3 or 4 prep races since January 1st, no more, no less.
    [*]Don't pick the post time favorite or the Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner. They just don't win, at least not since 1979 except for 2002 when favorite Fusaichi Pegasus won.
    [*]Pay close attention to the horse's Churchill Downs workouts. Bullets there are important as are 5 furlong or longer works.
    [*]Horses with good tactical speed and the ability to stalk have preference over pure speed or rally from way back types. Proven ability to handle bad traffic situations is a plus.
    [*]Stay away from geldings. No gelding has won since 1929 except Funny Cide in 2003. Flip side of this is not many geldings are entered as horses good enough for the Derby are rarely gelded.
    [*]At least one race on a Kentucky track is a plus. Eliminate horses who have raced poorly at Churchill Downs in the past as some horses just hate that track.
    [*]If D. Wayne Lukas or Bob Baffert or Todd Pletcher enter more than one horse, beware the one they don't hype. Thunder Gulch and Charismatic are perfect examples of this.
    [*]The Derby has a huge field, up to 20 horses, so traffic is a big problem. Remember that anything can happen with all the bumping that will go on.
    [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,ariel,helvetica,sans serif]Find the horse who fits the most of these criteria and you might just find the Kentucky Derby winner.
[/FONT]
 

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11, that list needs to be updated, its out of date. Like, a new trainer & new jockey won the derby in 2003 & 2004.

In fact, 10 of the past 11 derby winners were trainers have won for the very 1st time.

Also, beside Sea Hero & Thunder Gulch, Giacomo & Mine that Bird finished 4th race before derby........

I could go through the others but you get my point.

Good information none the less!
 
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11, that list needs to be updated, its out of date. Like, a new trainer & new jockey won the derby in 2003 & 2004.

In fact, 10 of the past 11 derby winners were trainers have won for the very 1st time.

Also, beside Sea Hero & Thunder Gulch, Giacomo & Mine that Bird finished 4th race before derby........

I could go through the others but you get my point.

Good information none the less!

TCG,

yep, thought it was a little outdated..........but some good points that carryover to today..................

Looking forward to your plays......
 

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