Ok...Which is a better measurement?
The "meaningless" 1-5/80% failure in Marshawn Lynch getting into the end zone when given the ball in those EXACT situations...???
Or the crystal ball so many of you are using to see that he would have definitely got in...???
Pretty much rest my case...
The "meaningless" 1-5/80% failure in Marshawn Lynch getting into the end zone when given the ball in those EXACT situations...???
Or the crystal ball so many of you are using to see that he would have definitely got in...???
Pretty much rest my case...
Now you're talking a different ball game with 2 carries.
But again, nobody knows that if he failed to get in the first attempt, that they would try again.
As a matter of fact, I'm sure there's data showing that considering the circumstances, if they had run and got stuffed, and had to use that time out, that the odds (data) are they would have thrown the following downs. Simply no way they would have risked it again & the possibility of the clock running out. Betcha the odds/data show exactly that and any of us who have watched football for so many years, have seen those exact circumstances too many times & pretty much know a team would throw after a failed run with so little time...
It was 2nd down when they threw.
If they ran on 2nd and got stuffed, they would have had to use their time out.
On 3rd down, odds are they would have thrown because with only 20+ seconds left, if they run again and fail, then they are at risk of the clock running out. Almost guaranteed that they would have thrown on 3rd down if the run failed.
If the pass would have succeeded, everyone would be boasting about how they surprised New England with a pass, when they were expecting run.
Now 4th down...You may be right.
But again.... Who says he gets in?
No that is incorrect but that isn't even what we're talking about.
You said Lynch 1/5 on goal line runs from the 1 this year. I said that stat is completely irrelevant and was not remotely cited as a reason they called the plays they called. Overall Lynch is a very good short yardage back. Using a sample size of 5 in a very specific situation is absurd over an entire season.
I'm going to agree with Hache here but not because of statistics. The reality is that Marshawn failed 4 of 5 times in that situation this year. I think that there is a STRONG possibility that the visual memory of those four failures weighted in Bevell's decision consciously or subconsciously. Sometimes you can throw the Z factor right out the window in the pressure of the moment.
Pats, Hache has already said in another thread the pass was a good call.
What else do you need to read? He's like one of those people on FB that kind of follow sports from a distance and try to insert their "expert" opinion but when they post, you can tell, they have absolutely no idea what the big boys are talking about.
TBH I thought pass was the right call on 2nd down because at 26 seconds/1 timeout it is the only way to get 3 plays off. So do a low risk PA/bootleg and if nothing is there throw it away then comeback and run on 3rd and 4th. To just run on 2nd and 3rd you are giving up a play. Just was saying Lynch 1/5 is totally meaningless. Overall Lynch #s in short yardage are very good.
So I thought they should pass there to get 3 plays but not THAT pass.
No, man. A pass on 2nd down was not the right call.
Look, you need a TD. You have to score. I don't give a shit if it's 2nd, 3rd or 4th down. You need a TD and it's really hard to score in the NFL. You need every chance you can get.
So, let's say he scores on 2nd down. You leave them with what .23 left? Brady is going to lead them down the field and into FG range with .23 left? The chances of that are extremely low.
yeah but why would you want 2 plays instead of 3? Even if the 2nd down is just a low risk play it is better than no play at all.
So if you run on 2nd down and get stuffed then what? call timeout and run on 3rd down? if you get stuffed then the game is over.
You're punting a play!
To run 3 plays you have to pass on 2nd or 3rd down once the clock gets to like 40 seconds
So if you run on 2nd down and get stuffed then what? call timeout and run on 3rd down? if you get stuffed then the game is over.
You're punting a play!
To run 3 plays you have to pass on 2nd or 3rd down once the clock gets to like 40 seconds
Because the low risk play has a high probability of not working, gets intercepted or Wilson gets hit and fumbles.
I run on 2nd down and call a TO if he doesn't get in. Leaves about .21-.22. Run on third with a play called for fourth. You have plenty of time to start a play with .22 and run a final play at the gun.
Or, run on 2nd and if he doesn't get in, run on 3rd then call your final TO to gather yourself for a final play on 4th.
Bottom line, you have to win/lose with Michael Jordan not win/lose with Bill Wennington or Luc Longley.
it would be more like 17-18 seconds and that would be extremely risky trying to beat the clock in a pressure packed situation like that. Who knows how 3rd down could go. A pileup can take a long time to sort out. Its the Patriots, Wilfork would probably just sit on Lynch for like 15 seconds
Dangerous is pretty elusive, he can easily not fumble/INT if he is told if there is nothing there then just throw it away. The chances of Dangerous doing that on a play that is low risk is similar to the chances of Lynch just fumbling.
Even run on 2nd, throw on 3rd then run again on 4th would be better than run-run and hope to beat the buzzer with a play
I'm all about winning or losing with Beast Mode but still can't risk having the SB end only getting 2 out of 3 plays off
Dangerous is pretty elusive, he can easily not fumble/INT if he is told if there is nothing there then just throw it away. The chances of Dangerous doing that on a play that is low risk is similar to the chances of Lynch just fumbling.
Even run on 2nd, throw on 3rd then run again on 4th would be better than run-run and hope to beat the buzzer with a play
I'm all about winning or losing with Beast Mode but still can't risk having the SB end only getting 2 out of 3 plays off
