U.S. Coronavirus Death Toll - over/under 8000

[THawk+]

Apparently it can ;

And this needs to be researched an documented immediately..........
THIS IS THE ONLY WAY TO CONVINCE EVERYONE THIS IS A TRUE PANDEMIC

There are always outliers in every statistical category.

Yes, a normal, healthy, young person can die. Not very likely and the percentage is so small for that to happen.

 

[THawk+]

Also the media conveniently never mentions many Italians in Northern Italy sold their companies to China. Italy then allowed 100,000 Chinese from Wuhan/Wenzhou to move to Italy to work in these factories, with direct Wuhan flights.

Mix that with poor hygiene, chain smokers, a heavy elderly population and 2-3 generations living in one home ...

Why would you present facts and be rational.

That is not how things are done here.

Start insulting people, yelling at them and presenting numbers you picked out of your as from your opinion

 

[THawk+]

VERY SADLY

OVER 8000 at this moment seems a runaway Lock

Flu cases leading to hospitalization (USA) approx 490,000 in 2018-19
Deaths related to flu approx 35,000 in 2018-19

*If* COVID cases continue to expand exponentially at pace of past nine days the USA will hit approx 2m confirmed infected by Apr 5 or sooner

Eight to nine days later - about April 10-12 - the USA would have approx 50m confirmed cases

Current data in North America suggests approx 20% will require hospitalization so 400,000 patients will require hospitalization on or before Apr 5; and approx 10MILLION by about Apr 12-15

If fatality rate is simply equal to that of those hospitalized for influenza (0.07%) that translates to approx 28,000 deaths among the Apr 5 400,000 and approx 700,000 deaths among the Apr 15th 10million

Of course we are unlikely to see either of the latter two numbers truly report in by Apr 15 (or week following) for two highly pertinent reasons

1) The U.S. does not currently have the ability to test enough people to produce 50million confirmed infections and

2) The U.S. is nowhere remotely able to truly hospitalize 10million people

But the infections and corresponding death rates will nonetheless manifest *UNLESS* the current rate of expansion slows from the current pace of +50% (actually it's a bit higher during past week) well before Apr 5

IF you forsee that being the case it offers relief from current potential of 700,000 deaths by mid to late April

But regardless OVER 8000 is a horribly grim Fave and we all likely should look in the mirror before even considering la-dee-dah chat about BETTING (even in jest) such a proposition

Complete dart throw based off of numbers that are fluctuating daily.

Like I said before you can't make guesses on what will happen based of numbers you see.

It is a dart throw

 

[THawk+]

A simple review of last 21 days of confirmed U.S. cases provides a huge sample of hundreds of thousands of tests and tens of thousands of confirmed infections.

Secondary numbers of "pct of confirmed requiring hospitalization" and "cause of death COVID" are also assembling quickly and within another THREE TO FOUR DAYS will far surpass *thousands* meaning an actuarial projection is accurate within about 3 to 5% (or less as numbers get larger)

So in other words you are guessing

 

[SgtLanquel]

So in other words you are guessing

An actuarial projection is more likely to be accurate if pertinent data points number at least a few thousand.

Those data points pertinent in this discussion now number in the hundreds of thousands (tests) and tens of thousands (confirmed infections)

So yes it is a guess. And using tried and true actuarial (statistics if you prefer) methods we can confidently extrapolate future numbers with a 3-5% margin of error

 

[THawk+]

An actuarial projection is more likely to be accurate if pertinent data points number at least a few thousand.

Those data points pertinent in this discussion now number in the hundreds of thousands (tests) and tens of thousands (confirmed infections)

So yes it is a guess. And using tried and true actuarial (statistics if you prefer) methods we can confidently extrapolate future numbers with a 3-5% margin of error

The problem is there are so many factors involved in this situation compared to a normal situation that you would be using
numbers from it is a complete guess. Comparatively speaking if you were doing this for a company or more stable situation I can be on board
but in this case any model that you are using numbers that are changing by the hour can't be accurate
In this case way too many factors involved to even do a model on...

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Why would you present facts and be rational.

That is not how things are done here.

Start insulting people, yelling at them and presenting numbers you picked out of your as from your opinion

Stay clueless.

 

[Michelangelo]

I would say they should work on being able to treat the ones that can be treated.

Make like 5 million ventillators, extra beds, cross our fingers and open back up.

Trump maybe right on this one (yes you read that correctly)if we wait too long that will present another set of serious problems

(stuff will need to be repaired, toilets will clog)

Vaccine can be ways away, cause apparently this thing is not only highly contageous(sp), it mutates as well. It has mutated already.
Its not going away, this thing will be a part of the "new normal" . They say that it can go back and forth between humans and animals (like dogs). So it will always be around

Did you ingest a red pill secretly planted in your coffee roll?

 

[CHOPTALK]

VERY SADLY

OVER 8000 at this moment seems a runaway Lock

Flu cases leading to hospitalization (USA) approx 490,000 in 2018-19
Deaths related to flu approx 35,000 in 2018-19

*If* COVID cases continue to expand exponentially at pace of past nine days the USA will hit approx 2m confirmed infected by Apr 5 or sooner

Eight to nine days later - about April 10-12 - the USA would have approx 50m confirmed cases

Current data in North America suggests approx 20% will require hospitalization so 400,000 patients will require hospitalization on or before Apr 5; and approx 10MILLION by about Apr 12-15

If fatality rate is simply equal to that of those hospitalized for influenza (0.07%) that translates to approx 28,000 deaths among the Apr 5 400,000 and approx 700,000 deaths among the Apr 15th 10million

Of course we are unlikely to see either of the latter two numbers truly report in by Apr 15 (or week following) for two highly pertinent reasons

1) The U.S. does not currently have the ability to test enough people to produce 50million confirmed infections and

2) The U.S. is nowhere remotely able to truly hospitalize 10million people

But the infections and corresponding death rates will nonetheless manifest *UNLESS* the current rate of expansion slows from the current pace of +50% (actually it's a bit higher during past week) well before Apr 5

IF you forsee that being the case it offers relief from current potential of 700,000 deaths by mid to late April

But regardless OVER 8000 is a horribly grim Fave and we all likely should look in the mirror before even considering la-dee-dah chat about BETTING (even in jest) such a proposition

problem is the USA is so spread out all these peaks are going to be happening at different times in different places .

The models that you are using is treating America like it’s one be entity .

New York , the biggest population center in the world is going to reach its peak way before many other places just like Washington already had its peak . But since NY is so big it had a much bigger effect on the overall numbers .

The USA is not one big place as the projections you are referring to are implying .

Also much of what you shared does not even factor in the social distancing that has taken place the last 8 days . Your numbers are way too high because it’s leaving off a ton of factors .

 

[Heatwave]

Very true. New York has over 50% of the cases in the US, but only 6% of the population. Without a doubt, NY needs to be on lockdown.

9% of the US population lives in Texas, but less than 2% of cases are in Texas.
6.5% of the US population lives in Florida, but 2.66% of the cases are in Florida.

I have read that warmer climates may do better against this thing.

Also, not sure where the 20% of everyone that gets Coronavirus will need to be hospitalized comes from. Seems high, and if close to right, wondering what the age/health breakdown of that is.

problem is the USA is so spread out all these peaks are going to be happening at different times in different places .

The models that you are using is treating America like it’s one be entity .

New York , the biggest population center in the world is going to reach its peak way before many other places just like Washington already had its peak . But since NY is so big it had a much bigger effect on the overall numbers .

The USA is not one big place as the projections you are referring to are implying .

Also much of what you shared does not even factor in the social distancing that has taken place the last 8 days . Your numbers are way too high because it’s leaving off a ton of factors .

 

[StevieRay]

Lock down ny and cal and many it effects just as flu like , no hospitalization needed

 

[TimmyRules]

Lock down ny and cal and many it effects just as flu like , no hospitalization needed

How quickly are oceans rising????face)(*^%

 

[Mobdeeper7239]

Heard Trump saying we need to stop the restrictions and get back to work ointer:

Fucking idiot.


Seen he got rid of Doctor Fauci. Cause he was laughing at Trump/Pence for contradicting themselves?

Yesterday he was asking the doctor whether or not “the hateful media” will be allowed back in the front row? Lmfao. Talking about a serious health issue and this whacko is still talking about the media being able to sit in the front seats. Doctor is trying not to fall into his bullshit. Doesn’t even answer it. Trump asks again. Doctor pretty much avoids it again. Fucking idiot

 

[mango]

Way over.

It's obvious why Orangevirus wants to rollback his stay-at-home order, cause he wants to return to playing golf. No matter what this idiot does, Orange Depression is in full effect.

 

[Mobdeeper7239]

Trying to find a coronavirus thread that hasn’t been started by Enflameo or Rednose the racist clown. Very difficult

 

[Enfuego]

Trying to find a coronavirus thread that hasn’t been started by Enflameo or Rednose the racist clown. Very difficult

How's your sun room today Moby?

Are you and Mango still rubbing each other down to prevent the virus?

 

[Mobdeeper7239]

Somebody from my company tested positive today. Said he’s felt like crap for 6 days straight now and just got back the rest. Got symptoms pretty quickly after being at a concert. Probably in his late 50’s early 60’s. Said he has fever, cough, body aches, fatigue and chills. Might have an infection from the pneumonia. Crazy. Serious deal

 

[Enfuego]

Somebody from my company tested positive today. Said he’s felt like crap for 6 days straight now and just got back the rest. Got symptoms pretty quickly after being at a concert. Probably in his late 50’s early 60’s. Said he has fever, cough, body aches, fatigue and chills. Might have an infection from the pneumonia. Crazy. Serious deal

You don't work in a company bro. Fake fucking news.

 

[REDEYE]

You don't work in a company bro. Fake fucking news.

probably could get a positive result with anything in the projects.... since when is running a hustle on a street corner associated with working at a company ..

 

[Mobdeeper7239]

https://www.baltimoresun.com/corona...0200324-h7mbqlvucjh2df6pfc6czyvmqe-story.html



Wow