According to WebMD..
https://www.webmd.com/cold-and-flu/flu-statistics
[FONT="]Here's a rundown of some important statistics based on the best available data.[/FONT]
[FONT="]
5% to 20% -- Percentage of the U.S. population that will get the flu, on average, each year.
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https://www.webmd.com/cold-and-flu/flu-statistics
[FONT="]Here's a rundown of some important statistics based on the best available data.[/FONT]
[FONT="]
5% to 20% -- Percentage of the U.S. population that will get the flu, on average, each year.
[/FONT]
So is saying that 30 percent of population gets it, is that out of line?
30 percent is about 100 million.
According to WHO. 1 percent dies and up to 20 percent require serious care. A certain percentage requires ventillators for breathing, otherwise they would probably die
By the way according to the governor of New York up to 80 percent of Americans could transmit it
https://ijr.com/cuomo-predicts-coronavirus-80-percent-americans/
Cuomo Predicts Coronavirus Could Infect Up to 80 Percent of Americans
30 percent is about 100 million.
According to WHO. 1 percent dies and up to 20 percent require serious care. A certain percentage requires ventillators for breathing, otherwise they would probably die
By the way according to the governor of New York up to 80 percent of Americans could transmit it
https://ijr.com/cuomo-predicts-coronavirus-80-percent-americans/
Cuomo Predicts Coronavirus Could Infect Up to 80 Percent of Americans
I don't know if it is more serious than the flu - if you get flu ur sick the entire week - u ain't going to work or leaving bed with a 102 fever, chills and sweat - I've never heard of flu with no symptoms - seems like many people getting this have no symptoms other than feeling great - it appears Corona virus can be worse than flu - and it appears to be worse than flu only if u have preexisting conditions
Hard to statistically analyze something that is moving rapidly, but based on the current numbers of different countries (assuming accurate).
If we are on Italy pace as of current numbers, death toll will be around 32K. It will obviously move higher in Italy, so 32K is low. However, number of deaths currently is only at 0.05% of population in Italy. My opinion is the demographics are much different and they were late reacting for sure.
South Korea is interesting. Death toll low, but infected number higher than China as a percentage of population.
My guess is that we will end up with Italy like numbers as a percentage of cases/population - more testing will make that happen just by itself. However, our death rate per case will be more like China at 4%. So, 327M times 0.11% times 4% brings it to around 14K. That is less than the 34K in the 2018-2019 flu season.
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If we are on Italy pace as of current numbers, death toll will be around 32K. It will obviously move higher in Italy, so 32K is low. However, number of deaths currently is only at 0.05% of population in Italy. My opinion is the demographics are much different and they were late reacting for sure.
South Korea is interesting. Death toll low, but infected number higher than China as a percentage of population.
My guess is that we will end up with Italy like numbers as a percentage of cases/population - more testing will make that happen just by itself. However, our death rate per case will be more like China at 4%. So, 327M times 0.11% times 4% brings it to around 14K. That is less than the 34K in the 2018-2019 flu season.
| ITALY | CHINA | SOUTH KOREA | SPAIN | US ACTUAL | |
| Population | 60,500,000 | 1,386,000,000 | 51,470,000 | 46,660,000 | 327,200,000 |
| Cases | 63,927 | 81,093 | 8,961 | 33,089 | 42,443 |
| Deaths | 6,077 | 3,270 | 111 | 2,207 | 517 |
| % of Cases/Population | 0.11% | 0.01% | 0.02% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| % of Deaths/Cases | 9.51% | 4.03% | 1.24% | 6.67% | 1.22% |
| US POPULATION | 327,200,000 | 327,200,000 | 327,200,000 | 327,200,000 | |
| % of Cases/Population | 345,734 | 19,144 | 56,966 | 232,034 | |
| % of Deaths/Cases | 32,866 | 772 | 706 | 15,476 |
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12 yr old in ur neck of the woods hopefully will pull through. Fortunately the healthy and young past thgough this will little problems
https://atlanta.cbslocal.com/2020/0...old-girl-with-coronavirus-is-on-a-ventilator/
Out of 731 confirmed and 1,412 suspected cases of COVID-19 in children in China, one child, a 14-year-old boy, died, according to a new study that will be published in the journal Pediatrics in June. Also, nearly 6% of children’s cases were severe, compared with 18.5% of adults experiencing severe symptoms, the study found.
Preliminary data
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e2.htm?s_cid=mm6912e2_w
Severe Outcomes Among Patients with Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) — United States, February 12–March 16, 2020
What is added by this report?
This first preliminary description of outcomes among patients with COVID-19 in the United States indicates that fatality was highest in persons aged ≥85, ranging from 10% to 27%, followed by 3% to 11% among persons aged 65–84 years, 1% to 3% among persons aged 55-64 years, <1% among persons aged 20–54 years, and no fatalities among persons aged ≤19 years
2018-2019 data from CDC showed an estimated 35.5M got the flu in 2018-2019 - 11% of the population. With 34K dying from flu in same time span, 0.10% death rate. So of course, this has a better probability of killing you than influenza. Which makes sense.
Again these numbers are still growing.
Again these numbers are still growing.
The Italy death numbers are mostly another media driven scare tactic
In Italy ... These are the words of Professor Walter Ricciardi, scientific adviser to Italy’s minister of health ...
“On re-evaluation by the National Institute of Health, only 12% of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus, while 88% of patients who have died have at least one pre-morbidity - many had two or three.”
So ...
These people were about to die from another illness & contracted COVID-19 shortly before death ... Some of them were dying from another illness, & combo of COVID-19 + other illness killed them.
In Italy ... These are the words of Professor Walter Ricciardi, scientific adviser to Italy’s minister of health ...
“On re-evaluation by the National Institute of Health, only 12% of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus, while 88% of patients who have died have at least one pre-morbidity - many had two or three.”
So ...
These people were about to die from another illness & contracted COVID-19 shortly before death ... Some of them were dying from another illness, & combo of COVID-19 + other illness killed them.
Also the media conveniently never mentions many Italians in Northern Italy sold their companies to China. Italy then allowed 100,000 Chinese from Wuhan/Wenzhou to move to Italy to work in these factories, with direct Wuhan flights.
Mix that with poor hygiene, chain smokers, a heavy elderly population and 2-3 generations living in one home ...
Mix that with poor hygiene, chain smokers, a heavy elderly population and 2-3 generations living in one home ...
VERY SADLY
OVER 8000 at this moment seems a runaway Lock
Flu cases leading to hospitalization (USA) approx 490,000 in 2018-19
Deaths related to flu approx 35,000 in 2018-19
*If* COVID cases continue to expand exponentially at pace of past nine days the USA will hit approx 2m confirmed infected by Apr 5 or sooner
Eight to nine days later - about April 10-12 - the USA would have approx 50m confirmed cases
Current data in North America suggests approx 20% will require hospitalization so 400,000 patients will require hospitalization on or before Apr 5; and approx 10MILLION by about Apr 12-15
If fatality rate is simply equal to that of those hospitalized for influenza (0.07%) that translates to approx 28,000 deaths among the Apr 5 400,000 and approx 700,000 deaths among the Apr 15th 10million
Of course we are unlikely to see either of the latter two numbers truly report in by Apr 15 (or week following) for two highly pertinent reasons
1) The U.S. does not currently have the ability to test enough people to produce 50million confirmed infections and
2) The U.S. is nowhere remotely able to truly hospitalize 10million people
But the infections and corresponding death rates will nonetheless manifest *UNLESS* the current rate of expansion slows from the current pace of +50% (actually it's a bit higher during past week) well before Apr 5
IF you forsee that being the case it offers relief from current potential of 700,000 deaths by mid to late April
But regardless OVER 8000 is a horribly grim Fave and we all likely should look in the mirror before even considering la-dee-dah chat about BETTING (even in jest) such a proposition
If the death toll is *not much different* than the normal season of influenza hospitalizations (approx 0.071) we are looking at likely well over 100,000 and upwards of a half million
THIS IS why many Americans are understandably frustrated w community (local, state & federal) clampdowns on non-essential human interaction.
That is, most Americans are utterly confounded by compounding arithmetic
Fortunately, the true health care experts & scientists ARE extremely capable of multiplying an actuarial trend x 1.5 (actually closer to 1.7 during past nine days) over 30, 40 days.
A simple review of last 21 days of confirmed U.S. cases provides a huge sample of hundreds of thousands of tests and tens of thousands of confirmed infections.
Secondary numbers of "pct of confirmed requiring hospitalization" and "cause of death COVID" are also assembling quickly and within another THREE TO FOUR DAYS will far surpass *thousands* meaning an actuarial projection is accurate within about 3 to 5% (or less as numbers get larger)
