1.5* ohio +11
.5* ohio +385 .5*/1.9*
this is a statistical analysist's dream... looking at ohio they have outgained their opponents on the year yet are 0-3.
game 1 out in wyoming a tough place to play a season opener they lost 21-20 as a DD dog even though they outgained wyoming. 1st and 10 from the wyoming 35 with under 5 minutes to play they get intercepted and don't get another chance...
game 2 they are only outgained by 18 yds by ohio st but a -4 TO margin along w/ a 69yd punt return td helped ohio st pull off the 12 pt victory as a 34 pt fav
game 3 ohio piles up over 500 yds offense and again outgains their opponent by 75 yds but again are -2 TO margin on 2 fumbles and loses by 3
turnovers, especially fumbles, are extremely hard to predict and are considered random to a certain extent. whether on offense or defense, when a ball falls on the ground, a bounce one way or the other can determine the fate of a game... a lucky bounce on offense and you retain possesion; a lucky one one defense creates a turnover. to a certain extent good teams will win the TO battle, but it's unlikely to see a team lose the TO battle every game... at this point, if ohio finishes even in TO margin for a game that is a positive based on past circumstances.
But if a team consistently outgains its oppenent in yardage, over the course of the year, it will eventually start to win games as it's considered a true barometer of a team's production. ever notice in college and nfl stats the offensive and defensive rankings are based on yardage and not points..?? there's a reason for this as a 12 yd td drive set up by a TO doesn't give as good an indication of a team's offensive productivity as a 70 yd drive that ends in a 27 yd fg. over the course of the season a team will "trend to the mean" and ydg will result in points.
Now northwestern might have had the easiest schedule so far in the country: home opener vs syracuse, @ duke, then home to so illinois (1-AA..??)... yet a closer look shows a scoreless first half to syracuse (orange gave up 42 points at home to akron!!) and only one TD in their first half vs so illinois. At duke they were outgained by 150 yds but didn't turn the ball over and won a close game that duke had a chance to win by kicking fgs in 4th qtr and elected not to which came back to haunt them
if you look at the national statistical rankings you'll see that ohio and northwestern are eerily close in many major categories... ohio is actually ahead of duke in ypa, while offensive and defensive ypp northwestern has the slimmest of edges... but a closer look reveals an advantage to ohio: ohio has performed practically the same statistically as northwestern, but against much stronger competition!!
ohio's toughest opponent was oh st, while NW was duke=advantage ohio.
ohio's easiest opponent was @ wyoming, while NW was home to so ill=adv ohio
ohio vs c mich compared to nw vs syracuse=adv ohio.
in other words, would rushing for 150 vs LSU who only gives up say 60 yds rushing/game be the same as rushing for 150 vs FAU who might be giving up 180yds rush/game..?? obviously not... so based on an expected value model ohio is actually statistically better than Northwestern..!! factor in TO differential which ohio is one of the worst in the NCAA but over the course of the season usually trends to the mean and ohio, on paper, is actually a better team than northwestern..!!
now i know that stats can be used in lots of ways to support any such claims, but i have no bias here; i am neither a fan of ohio or northwestern... i'm just looking objectively at this matchup and noticing certain circumstances that might describe this in a little more detail than an 0-3 team vs a 3-0 team.
throw in the fact that northwestern was a 2pt conversion away from a home upset in 2005 to N ill, lost at home to new hampshire in 2006, and were upset last yr at home by a duke team which didn't win another game all year and i think i might have found a live dog at almost 4-1
good luck
