you are fired up... are you going to the game? i feel sorry for any one who might have tickets near you...:lolBIG:
spartans haven't gained over 300 yds last 3 games and have been outgained in each
don't want to base this on one game, but michigan rushed for over 200 yds last game with minor in the backfield and gained over 200 yds offense in the first half against a pretty tough defense on the road
i just feel that the best unit on the field saturday will be michigan defense... if spartans continue to gain less than 300 yds like they've done past 3 games then i think we can both agree that this will be a low-scoring game... in these instances getting pts, especially more than a FG, at home is usually a wise move imo
good luck
have fun
don't hurt anybody...
:toast:
spartans haven't gained over 300 yds last 3 games and have been outgained in each
don't want to base this on one game, but michigan rushed for over 200 yds last game with minor in the backfield and gained over 200 yds offense in the first half against a pretty tough defense on the road
i just feel that the best unit on the field saturday will be michigan defense... if spartans continue to gain less than 300 yds like they've done past 3 games then i think we can both agree that this will be a low-scoring game... in these instances getting pts, especially more than a FG, at home is usually a wise move imo
good luck
have fun
don't hurt anybody...
:toast:
I'll be on the 20 yard line, my first rivalry game at The Dump, I mean Big House, where "we break attendance records and everyone gets half an ass cheek to sit on"
I'll be the only MSU fan with about 10 UM fans tailgating! Dont worry, all friends here! I'll be alright, I keep it clean!
Good stats on being outgained. You make some good points here, but here's hoping you're wrong! :toast:
Trent,
Can you give me your thoughts on the Wake/Miami total? I was looking at possibly going UNDER in that game. The Deacons have scored 1 TD in their last two ACC games and now will be starting a fr at OG and another at TE.
Also looking at going OVER NCST/Mary.
Any other totals you considering this weekend?
GL
Can you give me your thoughts on the Wake/Miami total? I was looking at possibly going UNDER in that game. The Deacons have scored 1 TD in their last two ACC games and now will be starting a fr at OG and another at TE.
Also looking at going OVER NCST/Mary.
Any other totals you considering this weekend?
GL
pez-
i had wake under @ fsu and it ended 12-3. the following week they played navy and the total was 54 but i laid off since you never know w/ a team like navy but it still went under... after their bye i kinda forgot about their total and they played clemson to a 12-7 final... last week i played maryland on the side so i laid off the total but that went under as well... i think wake is a good under play this year no matter what... if they don't do it this week then you can get them next week... they run a lot, don't throw down field, no real explosive players on offense, and a real solid defense... also, skinner doesn't turn the ball over too often so they're more likely to punt and force a long field than turn it over and give the opposition a short field
as a whole i usually play unders in acc so while mary/nc st is probably a good play on the over it's always touchy going over in that conference with the limited amount of playmakers... also, friedgen will run it if he can 65/35 as long as it's working and he's not behind
good luck this weekend
3* south florida -2.5
down on this cincy team and feel usf is a step above... 3 yr starter grothe at QB or ist yr starter for cincy... must-win for both but feel the better team gets it done tonight... last week i was on louisville vs usf with the pts but they have a much better run game and more pts (+4.5)...
good luck
down on this cincy team and feel usf is a step above... 3 yr starter grothe at QB or ist yr starter for cincy... must-win for both but feel the better team gets it done tonight... last week i was on louisville vs usf with the pts but they have a much better run game and more pts (+4.5)...
good luck
Trent..I'll be on this play as well..Cincy's QB situation is a mess. And they can't get anything out of their O-Line, which is much inferior to the Louisville O-Line that USF faced last week. Now Cincy is going up against one of the better defenses in the Big East, coming off a game which they could have won if it hadn't been for a couple mistakes by Grothe. I look for USF to play much better this week.
a lot of people think it's a trap and that cincy was looking past uconn last week... i actually had uconn last week but took them earlier in the week at +1 and once the qb was out the line went to +3 so i didn't bother posting it... i had cincy really falling off in the conference this year as they got outstanding qb play last yr w/ mauck and were +18 in to's and that usually doesn't occur b2b seasons... very limited in the run game as well
:toast:
:toast:
Cant believe how much line is moving up in MSU game. Wisky is much improved in my opinion and doesnt warrant an almost a TD dog. MSU's win was important, but again showed how bad UofM really is. MSU has also lost the following week after beating Mich 4 out of the last 5 times. Wisky scares me now that they have the Qb situation figured out and will keep this game close with lots of running on both sides. If it hits 6, I ahve to seriously consider Wisky.
Hi Trent,
I was looking at going UNDER 44.5 for the Northwestern/Minn game and wanted to get your thoughts (line just jumped to 46). With Sutton out and Bacher doubtful, I see Kafka and Northwestern running the ball more then usual, plus both teams are playing good defense.
Thanks and GL this weekend.
I was looking at going UNDER 44.5 for the Northwestern/Minn game and wanted to get your thoughts (line just jumped to 46). With Sutton out and Bacher doubtful, I see Kafka and Northwestern running the ball more then usual, plus both teams are playing good defense.
Thanks and GL this weekend.
4* wisconsin +4.5
4* Illinois -2.5
i know these are very unpopular picks so this will be a particular lengthy post... if nothing else, it will serve as a view from the other side
First off i do not hate sparty... i played them @ cal week 1. but a few things bother me about them that makes me want to fade them as a favorite...
they are a run-based offense, yet are #82 in ypr
a run based offense needs a strong rush defense, yet they are #77 ypr defense
but they are 7-2.
in conference games, they are tied for #10 in ypr and #10 in defense ypr and haven't even played penn st yet
but they are 4-1 in conference games
is it wrong to think those numbers can not sustain a winning record..??
i am not going to sing the virtues of wisconsin bc they have underperformed this year... but the qb change seemed to provide a little spark for them last week and there is at least a little momentum going for them
everyone knows about the 2 huge games msu has just played-a demoralizing blowout loss to oh st followed by a great emotional comeback win @ rival michigan-their biggest win in years! now they have to get up for a sleepy noon kickoff to play a 4-4 team coming off a win that needs this game badly
what is being overlooked is that this is mich st's TENTH STRAIGHT game..!! fatigue, both physical and mental, eventually take it's toll, especially on a team w/ a lot of first year starters
now let's look at iowa/illinois...
there's an overwhelming sentiment that iowa will run all over illinois, which is a good enough reason to play them... but take a look at these numbers in B10 games. Illinois has played 5 conference games (at penn st) while iowa has played 4, so let's throw out the psu game since they are without question the best offensive team in the conference and look at defensive ypr for each team's 4 conference games, which includes two common opponents and four other teams of relative even strength
Team A: 3.1/2.7/3.4/4.6 (high 4.6, low 2.7)
Team B: 2.0/3.4/3.2/3.6 (high 3.6, low 2.0)
I'd be willing to bet half my bankroll which team you think is iowa and which you think is illinois... but you're wrong..!!
Team A, whose numbers are clearly inferior, is Iowa
Team B, whose numbers are clearly better, is Illinois
Now even if you don't buy that Illinois run defense is better than Iowa, you certainly can't say that Iowa has a distinct edge...
Furthermore, these are the defensive rankings for ypr of iowa's opponents:
47/57/69/75/77/86/92/maine
they have yet to face a decent run defense, so while their ypr seems very good, they've accomplished this against weaker run defenses... in conference, they haven't played ohio st or penn st, the two best run defenses in B10
Now on defense Iowa has to face the #8 pya offense in the nation and #1 pya in B10... and while iowa's defensive pya seems pretty good, look at the offensive pya they have faced:
36/48/56/68/71/77/78/maine
this is BY FAR the best pass offense they will have faced all season
Finally, look at the spread: +2.5... with such an extremely small % of games decided by 1 or 2 pts, iowa basically has to win outright... and again, if they have to win, then they basically have to win by 3. so both illinois and iowa, in order to cover this game, have to do the same thing: win by 3!! kinda takes the "underdog" aspect out if it, doesn't it..??
3 games ago we were all on Iowa @ MSU... depending on when you got the line you got +9.5 or after dr bob hit it you got under a td... it was one of the few instances where the whole board was on a side and it covered... so now you go from getting over a TD @ msu to getting less than a FG a few weeks later.... whether iowa covers or not, there is ABSOLUTELY NO LINE VALUE at this price
One last thought on both of these games:
B10 is essentially divided into 3 parts this year:
the best-penn st, oh st
the worst-mich, purdue, indiana
while you can rank the 6 other programs however you like, they make up "the middle"
these 4 teams make up the middle, so we shouldn't be surprised at any outcome for these 2 games... but fading a 4-1 "middle" team after their biggest win in years, or playing a home "middle" team against another "middle" team after a loss to a different "middle" team to essentially win (-2.5) shouldn't be such unpopular picks
good luck
4* Illinois -2.5
i know these are very unpopular picks so this will be a particular lengthy post... if nothing else, it will serve as a view from the other side
First off i do not hate sparty... i played them @ cal week 1. but a few things bother me about them that makes me want to fade them as a favorite...
they are a run-based offense, yet are #82 in ypr
a run based offense needs a strong rush defense, yet they are #77 ypr defense
but they are 7-2.
in conference games, they are tied for #10 in ypr and #10 in defense ypr and haven't even played penn st yet
but they are 4-1 in conference games
is it wrong to think those numbers can not sustain a winning record..??
i am not going to sing the virtues of wisconsin bc they have underperformed this year... but the qb change seemed to provide a little spark for them last week and there is at least a little momentum going for them
everyone knows about the 2 huge games msu has just played-a demoralizing blowout loss to oh st followed by a great emotional comeback win @ rival michigan-their biggest win in years! now they have to get up for a sleepy noon kickoff to play a 4-4 team coming off a win that needs this game badly
what is being overlooked is that this is mich st's TENTH STRAIGHT game..!! fatigue, both physical and mental, eventually take it's toll, especially on a team w/ a lot of first year starters
now let's look at iowa/illinois...
there's an overwhelming sentiment that iowa will run all over illinois, which is a good enough reason to play them... but take a look at these numbers in B10 games. Illinois has played 5 conference games (at penn st) while iowa has played 4, so let's throw out the psu game since they are without question the best offensive team in the conference and look at defensive ypr for each team's 4 conference games, which includes two common opponents and four other teams of relative even strength
Team A: 3.1/2.7/3.4/4.6 (high 4.6, low 2.7)
Team B: 2.0/3.4/3.2/3.6 (high 3.6, low 2.0)
I'd be willing to bet half my bankroll which team you think is iowa and which you think is illinois... but you're wrong..!!
Team A, whose numbers are clearly inferior, is Iowa
Team B, whose numbers are clearly better, is Illinois
Now even if you don't buy that Illinois run defense is better than Iowa, you certainly can't say that Iowa has a distinct edge...
Furthermore, these are the defensive rankings for ypr of iowa's opponents:
47/57/69/75/77/86/92/maine
they have yet to face a decent run defense, so while their ypr seems very good, they've accomplished this against weaker run defenses... in conference, they haven't played ohio st or penn st, the two best run defenses in B10
Now on defense Iowa has to face the #8 pya offense in the nation and #1 pya in B10... and while iowa's defensive pya seems pretty good, look at the offensive pya they have faced:
36/48/56/68/71/77/78/maine
this is BY FAR the best pass offense they will have faced all season
Finally, look at the spread: +2.5... with such an extremely small % of games decided by 1 or 2 pts, iowa basically has to win outright... and again, if they have to win, then they basically have to win by 3. so both illinois and iowa, in order to cover this game, have to do the same thing: win by 3!! kinda takes the "underdog" aspect out if it, doesn't it..??
3 games ago we were all on Iowa @ MSU... depending on when you got the line you got +9.5 or after dr bob hit it you got under a td... it was one of the few instances where the whole board was on a side and it covered... so now you go from getting over a TD @ msu to getting less than a FG a few weeks later.... whether iowa covers or not, there is ABSOLUTELY NO LINE VALUE at this price
One last thought on both of these games:
B10 is essentially divided into 3 parts this year:
the best-penn st, oh st
the worst-mich, purdue, indiana
while you can rank the 6 other programs however you like, they make up "the middle"
these 4 teams make up the middle, so we shouldn't be surprised at any outcome for these 2 games... but fading a 4-1 "middle" team after their biggest win in years, or playing a home "middle" team against another "middle" team after a loss to a different "middle" team to essentially win (-2.5) shouldn't be such unpopular picks
good luck
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Line up to 6 on Wisky at my book. You could easily post 5.5 though, it's available everywhere. Me and you have the same thinking about this game trent. The QB situation is finally figured out, and they can rush they ball pretty well. I see a game similar to Iowa game. Only thing that worries me is a lot of injuries on defense for Wisky
hey pez-
i'm not sure about this total solely bc minny seems to be such a different team this year... i lean your way it's just so odd for me to be looking at minny as an "under" team when for so many years they've been an "over" team.. but that seems like a good play considering NW doesn't stretch the field and minny seems to be content w/ ball control, mistake free football
also check the purdue/mich total... purdue has always had trouble w/ the athletes on michigan, especially in the secondary, much like ohio st defense (mich obviously not as good but in the past their timing pass offense has been contained by athletic secondaries)
:toast:
