last 4 weeks:
1-5
7-2
2-4
5-2
consistently inconsistent...
2* maryland +3
running game advantage to maryland and v tech offense that has not found a rhythm all season long now either playing 3rd string qb or qbs that are banged up and haven't practiced all week
sat:
3.5* arkansas +11.5
2-2 last 4 gams with 2 losses by combined 3 pts... s car has a great defense but pedestrian and conservative on offense... 6 sec games have only scored in the 30's once...
2.5* g tech +4
running game and tough d-line getting pts
2.5* nc st +4
have really played well as of late w/ wilson at qb, feel Duke is now a little over-rated... talent edge to nc st, well-coached team looking to get first conference win getting points
2.5* cal +21
oregon was +15 @ usc, not really sure why this line is so high...usc offense can sometimes go in the shell playing 2nd toughest defense in conference
2.5* LSU +3.5
LSU secondary exposed vs tebow and stafford, not sure jpw can do the same and not sure saban chooses that route... Alabama beat uga by dominating the lines, but i don't feel they have as big of an advantage against LSU on the road... the Tide have been great all year even while playing freshmen at key positions, now have the weight of #1 in the country plus on the road plus rivalry game plus laying points...!! that's a lot on the shoulders of some very young men who are tasting success for the very first time (team was 6-6 last year)
2* Baylor +28
Young texas defense has to get back up vs a pretty dynamic qb... backdoor should also be open
2* syracuse +14.5
running game has been working well for cuse lately and rutgers is not good enough to warrant laying 2 TDs imo
1* indiana +10
wisky hasn't won by more than 10 since game 2 vs marshall at home... indiana was getting 6 vs iowa, 8 vs mich st, now 10 vs wisky..??
1* oregon st/ucla u52.5
expect ucla to play tough at home, offense still struggling... oregon st playing backup qb as well, would think it tough for either to score in the 30s, thus both would have to score high 20s for this to go over
good luck
1-5
7-2
2-4
5-2
consistently inconsistent...
2* maryland +3
running game advantage to maryland and v tech offense that has not found a rhythm all season long now either playing 3rd string qb or qbs that are banged up and haven't practiced all week
sat:
3.5* arkansas +11.5
2-2 last 4 gams with 2 losses by combined 3 pts... s car has a great defense but pedestrian and conservative on offense... 6 sec games have only scored in the 30's once...
2.5* g tech +4
running game and tough d-line getting pts
2.5* nc st +4
have really played well as of late w/ wilson at qb, feel Duke is now a little over-rated... talent edge to nc st, well-coached team looking to get first conference win getting points
2.5* cal +21
oregon was +15 @ usc, not really sure why this line is so high...usc offense can sometimes go in the shell playing 2nd toughest defense in conference
2.5* LSU +3.5
LSU secondary exposed vs tebow and stafford, not sure jpw can do the same and not sure saban chooses that route... Alabama beat uga by dominating the lines, but i don't feel they have as big of an advantage against LSU on the road... the Tide have been great all year even while playing freshmen at key positions, now have the weight of #1 in the country plus on the road plus rivalry game plus laying points...!! that's a lot on the shoulders of some very young men who are tasting success for the very first time (team was 6-6 last year)
2* Baylor +28
Young texas defense has to get back up vs a pretty dynamic qb... backdoor should also be open
2* syracuse +14.5
running game has been working well for cuse lately and rutgers is not good enough to warrant laying 2 TDs imo
1* indiana +10
wisky hasn't won by more than 10 since game 2 vs marshall at home... indiana was getting 6 vs iowa, 8 vs mich st, now 10 vs wisky..??
1* oregon st/ucla u52.5
expect ucla to play tough at home, offense still struggling... oregon st playing backup qb as well, would think it tough for either to score in the 30s, thus both would have to score high 20s for this to go over
good luck
1* oh st u42
offenses ranked #82 and #83 ypp... oh st defense given up 16 points TOTAL last 3 games
windy conditions real tough at ryan field since it's so small the stands don't block the wind like at other stadiums where it might be windy outside but not that much of an effect inside stadium...look for both teams to stick to the run and a low-scoring game to take place
good luck
offenses ranked #82 and #83 ypp... oh st defense given up 16 points TOTAL last 3 games
windy conditions real tough at ryan field since it's so small the stands don't block the wind like at other stadiums where it might be windy outside but not that much of an effect inside stadium...look for both teams to stick to the run and a low-scoring game to take place
good luck
Trent...It is amazing how much doom & gloom bad press Louisville is getting this week after their drubbing by Pitt. But 4 out of the 5 turnovers in that game led directly to Pitt TD's. And for all of the points that Pitt scored, they still only had 320 yards of total offense in that game. And were actually outrushed by Louisville.. The bottom line here is if you go by the stats, there is very little difference between Louisville & Cincy. Actually Louisville has a +34 yards advantage difference on O & D combined against Cincy. So there is definitely some value here with the home team "running dogs" with this play. I'm hoping to see this line go up to 4. If it does I'm going to put a small play on Louisville...Good luck
4* Louisville +3.5
better run offense and defense at home getting points...
defense limited lesean mccoy to his worst outing of the year last week @ pitt, but TOs led directly to points... 5 TOs is an unwinnable game so the final outcome 41-7 doesn't translate well to their performance
real bad spot imo for cincy in that they just had 2 emotional games (thurs night home vs usf and @ w va) where they were underdogs and now have to get back up and as a favorite... always suspicious of a team going from a home dog to a road fav against similar competition as well (louisville beat usf)...OT game sat night on the road followed by friday night road contest also means that they will have the shortest turnaround time of any team on the board this week
if you look at the lines for these two teams home vs usf (+3 and +4) and last week against similar opponents on the road you can tell that linesmakers considered cincy about 2 pts better than Louisville... that would make Louisville a slight fav (-2) at home if this game was played last week... now getting 3.5 pts because of cincy win and Louisville loss
Louisville back home after b2b roadies and bowl eligibility with a win for a team that didn't go bowling last year should provide the right motivation and backdrop for a turnaround performance imo
good luck
better run offense and defense at home getting points...
defense limited lesean mccoy to his worst outing of the year last week @ pitt, but TOs led directly to points... 5 TOs is an unwinnable game so the final outcome 41-7 doesn't translate well to their performance
real bad spot imo for cincy in that they just had 2 emotional games (thurs night home vs usf and @ w va) where they were underdogs and now have to get back up and as a favorite... always suspicious of a team going from a home dog to a road fav against similar competition as well (louisville beat usf)...OT game sat night on the road followed by friday night road contest also means that they will have the shortest turnaround time of any team on the board this week
if you look at the lines for these two teams home vs usf (+3 and +4) and last week against similar opponents on the road you can tell that linesmakers considered cincy about 2 pts better than Louisville... that would make Louisville a slight fav (-2) at home if this game was played last week... now getting 3.5 pts because of cincy win and Louisville loss
Louisville back home after b2b roadies and bowl eligibility with a win for a team that didn't go bowling last year should provide the right motivation and backdrop for a turnaround performance imo
good luck
5* NC ST +3.5
got some early at +4 as well...
it's amazing how different this team has played with russel wilson as the qb... if you check all their offensive stats and rankings nationally they are really poor... but take the stats from their last 3 games and compare them with wake forest "in a blind taste test" and there is no doubt you would think it's nc st at the top of the division lead and not the deacons...
check out wilson's qb rating last 4 games, in chronological order:
123
139
143
151
the first two were against two of the best defenses in the conference in BC and FSU, the last two were on the road, so these are all legit, and obvious on the rise...wilson back as the starter has been a shot to the running game as well, as evidenced by 3 straight 150+ rushing performances...and with the return of injured starters and defensive leaders nate irving and alan michael-cash the defense, with the help of an improved offense, has begun to improve as well
now wake forest's offensive struggles have been well documented so i don't need to get into that... but wake has won it's last two, mainly due to an identical 4-1 turnover margin in both games...in fact, wake leads the nation in turnovers gained with 28, probably the main reason why they are 6-3 with such putrid offensive numbers
but here is where the stalemate occurs:
nc st has turned the ball over ONCE in it's last 4 games, coinciding with the return of wilson as qb..!!
with nc st being at home, i would lean to this trend continuing as opposed to if this game was being played at wake forest, where i would lean to their trend of forcing turnovers to continue
ultimately, the biggest reason for this play is if you just take the last 4 games of each team and match them up nc st actually comes out the better team, but because they are 3-6 and wake forest is 6-3 (after a 3-0 start) they are an underdog at home... throw in the fact that the wolfpack haven't won at home since septermber and are looking for their first conference home win and i expect a motivated and focused performance from the home team against an in-state rival
good luck
got some early at +4 as well...
it's amazing how different this team has played with russel wilson as the qb... if you check all their offensive stats and rankings nationally they are really poor... but take the stats from their last 3 games and compare them with wake forest "in a blind taste test" and there is no doubt you would think it's nc st at the top of the division lead and not the deacons...
check out wilson's qb rating last 4 games, in chronological order:
123
139
143
151
the first two were against two of the best defenses in the conference in BC and FSU, the last two were on the road, so these are all legit, and obvious on the rise...wilson back as the starter has been a shot to the running game as well, as evidenced by 3 straight 150+ rushing performances...and with the return of injured starters and defensive leaders nate irving and alan michael-cash the defense, with the help of an improved offense, has begun to improve as well
now wake forest's offensive struggles have been well documented so i don't need to get into that... but wake has won it's last two, mainly due to an identical 4-1 turnover margin in both games...in fact, wake leads the nation in turnovers gained with 28, probably the main reason why they are 6-3 with such putrid offensive numbers
but here is where the stalemate occurs:
nc st has turned the ball over ONCE in it's last 4 games, coinciding with the return of wilson as qb..!!
with nc st being at home, i would lean to this trend continuing as opposed to if this game was being played at wake forest, where i would lean to their trend of forcing turnovers to continue
ultimately, the biggest reason for this play is if you just take the last 4 games of each team and match them up nc st actually comes out the better team, but because they are 3-6 and wake forest is 6-3 (after a 3-0 start) they are an underdog at home... throw in the fact that the wolfpack haven't won at home since septermber and are looking for their first conference home win and i expect a motivated and focused performance from the home team against an in-state rival
good luck
7* oregon -4
i love playing a strong running team at home vs a team that struggles to stop the run ( 221 yds, 286 yds @ new mexico and @ stanford)... arizona is more of a pass-oriented team, and i normally look to fade teams that rely on the pass when they go on the road... the old saying "there are 3 things that can happen when a qb passes, and 2 of them are bad" is one that i believe carries a lot of weight, not to mention before you can even throw the ball the chance of a sack or holding penalty is always a possibibility
back to back road games for a defense ranked #70 ypr against the #1 BCS team in offense ypr is a matchup that i always look to play
good luck
i love playing a strong running team at home vs a team that struggles to stop the run ( 221 yds, 286 yds @ new mexico and @ stanford)... arizona is more of a pass-oriented team, and i normally look to fade teams that rely on the pass when they go on the road... the old saying "there are 3 things that can happen when a qb passes, and 2 of them are bad" is one that i believe carries a lot of weight, not to mention before you can even throw the ball the chance of a sack or holding penalty is always a possibibility
back to back road games for a defense ranked #70 ypr against the #1 BCS team in offense ypr is a matchup that i always look to play
good luck
Trent...What do you think of Minnesota? Seems like Wisconsin is a very public play. The thing I wonder is does two lost games all of a sudden make Minny a different team than they were 2 weeks ago. And is this Wisky team that much better than they were when they lost all of those games in a row in mid season? Minny looks like the kind of team to me that operates better in the dog or small favorite role than the bigger favorites that they've been the last couple of weeks. Seems I recall everybody saying the same things about Minny when they went to Illinois as 12 point dogs and they won outright. Wisconsin just doesn't impress me. They have basically become mostly a run only team, And the line to me seems like it should be closer to 7 than 14. The last game that Minny played was the only game this season where they lost by as many points as they are as the dog here. Does this seem a little fishy to you, or do you think that Minny is now just that bad?
i really wanted to fade minny the last 2 weeks, but as i said in your thread with northwestern w/out their starting qb and rb, and with <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
ffice:smarttags" /><st1:State w:st="on"><st1
lace w:st="on">michigan</st1lace></st1:State> w/out their starting qb last week i just couldn't... but predictably, minny crumbled.
now i was ready to unload on wisky this week, but when i saw the line i almost laughed out loud... i was looking for 6/7, and it ends up 13/14..!!
Now there is tremendous line value in this game, but i just don't trust minny... NO WAY should wisky be that heavy of a fav, and this is a HUGE rivalry game (i've been to both <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">madison</st1lace></st1:City> and metrodome to see Paul Bunyon's axe and there is some excitement in these players).
i could even understand books making wisky -10 but this line is way out of whack... kinda makes you think though
sorry i couldn't give you a definitive answer here but i was leaning one way and the line took me off it so i can't recommend the other way just because that spread is tempting
ffice:smarttags" /><st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">michigan</st1lace></st1:State> w/out their starting qb last week i just couldn't... but predictably, minny crumbled.now i was ready to unload on wisky this week, but when i saw the line i almost laughed out loud... i was looking for 6/7, and it ends up 13/14..!!
Now there is tremendous line value in this game, but i just don't trust minny... NO WAY should wisky be that heavy of a fav, and this is a HUGE rivalry game (i've been to both <st1:City w:st="on"><st1
lace w:st="on">madison</st1lace></st1:City> and metrodome to see Paul Bunyon's axe and there is some excitement in these players).i could even understand books making wisky -10 but this line is way out of whack... kinda makes you think though
sorry i couldn't give you a definitive answer here but i was leaning one way and the line took me off it so i can't recommend the other way just because that spread is tempting
Wisky was favored by 14 at Minny last year and failed to cover. Both teams returned most of their teams intact from last year, so don't be at all surprised to see Minny cover here. I couldn't bring myself to bet on Minny because they have been outgained by a wide margin in Big Ten Play. My gut instinct is that Wisky romps them.
4* iowa -17.5 (although i got some early in week at -15)
This is my official Big Ten "Let go of the Rope" game
-and yes, i know there is absolutely no Line Value in this game...
Purdue is playing it's 11th straight game and b2b on the road against an extremely physical team and have absolutely nothing to play for being eliminated from bowls last week... but unlike the michigan squad last week vs minny that has a new coach with young players playing for next year as much as this year, purdue coach joe tiller is leaving after the season is over. it hasn't been an enjoyable one for purdue (i took u7 wins) and tiller has been annoyed with his team's attitude as well... while i believe they get up for next week's home finale against in-state rival indiana for the old oak n bucket trophy, i think they "let go of the rope" today
last week purdue offense totaled 191 yds, but even worse they gained 98 on their last drive when the game was practically over... which means for the first 50 minutes of the game they had gained a total of 93 yds!!! now mich st lost the TO battle 4-1 which normally would guarantee a win for the opposition and purdue still lost by 2 TDs!!
now i know iowa had a big win last week but that could also mean they come in here sky high as opposed to flat... i'm not going to try and figure that out... what i do know is that it is senior day at Kinnick Stadium, and for those of you who have ever been there know it's pretty emotional... i don't know if it's the proximity of the fans to the field or the family atmosphere ferentz has created but it's pretty special, and iowa when they are good have pounded their opponents on this day... combine their emotional leader dt mitch king is a senior and i expect them to come out fired up and physical against a team that has nothing to play for
good luck
This is my official Big Ten "Let go of the Rope" game
-and yes, i know there is absolutely no Line Value in this game...
Purdue is playing it's 11th straight game and b2b on the road against an extremely physical team and have absolutely nothing to play for being eliminated from bowls last week... but unlike the michigan squad last week vs minny that has a new coach with young players playing for next year as much as this year, purdue coach joe tiller is leaving after the season is over. it hasn't been an enjoyable one for purdue (i took u7 wins) and tiller has been annoyed with his team's attitude as well... while i believe they get up for next week's home finale against in-state rival indiana for the old oak n bucket trophy, i think they "let go of the rope" today
last week purdue offense totaled 191 yds, but even worse they gained 98 on their last drive when the game was practically over... which means for the first 50 minutes of the game they had gained a total of 93 yds!!! now mich st lost the TO battle 4-1 which normally would guarantee a win for the opposition and purdue still lost by 2 TDs!!
now i know iowa had a big win last week but that could also mean they come in here sky high as opposed to flat... i'm not going to try and figure that out... what i do know is that it is senior day at Kinnick Stadium, and for those of you who have ever been there know it's pretty emotional... i don't know if it's the proximity of the fans to the field or the family atmosphere ferentz has created but it's pretty special, and iowa when they are good have pounded their opponents on this day... combine their emotional leader dt mitch king is a senior and i expect them to come out fired up and physical against a team that has nothing to play for
good luck
