Trentmoney 2008 CFB

[trentmoney]

Trent, am I missing something or is MSU +15 great value? I dont see them laying another egg like the OSU game. They know what's on the line here. They can control TOP and prevent the quick scores from PSU. PSU wins this one but 15 is way too much not take the points....

i was expecting -14 and would have jumped on it if it was lower...

it has "Value" if you think mich st can play with them and possibly beat them
but in terms of "Line Value" this is what it should be. just consider:

psu -14.5 home to Illinois week 5
psu -7.5 @ Iowa (change homefield and that is -14.5 as well)

precedent has been set for psu as a 2 TD fav at home against the good teams in conference (i know illinois has underachieved but has as much talent as anyone and is capable of playing well so talent-level wise they are on the same level-especially early in the year when the played psu- as iowa and mich st)

now you will notice that psu did not cover either of those so i certainly can understand your thinking

good luck

 

[trentmoney]

last week 2-3 but won my top 2 plays so managed a profit

5* nc st +11

a lot of the same numbers as last week, but with one more game of similar production to add to it

run game has produced 4 straight of at least 149 yds to go along with superb play of qb wilson to create a balanced offense...wilson's qb rating finally dropped last game (wake defense #20 in nation in pass % so not a surprise) but his ability to make plays on the ground (14/69/1) actually made for a more effective performance..!! nc st offense gives you lots of looks and are very multiple in their attack... not hard to see why they are avg 24 ppg last 5 with a low of 17 vs FSU... defense playing inspired as well, only giving up one true TD drive last week as a trick play 64 yd wr pass accounted for the first score and wake recovering a fumble inside the 15 resulted in the other FG

let's not forget that UNC was 4-8 last season and while they've done a tremendous job turning it around i feel that they might have peaked already this season... we are looking at a matchup of two teams that are 2-2 in their last 4 in a rivalry game that came down to the last play of the game last year (nc st won). And with their current performance you can easily make the argument that nc st, in tom o'brien's 2nd year and with a new QB, has improved from last year as well... throw in the current QB controversy for UNC (while nc st is very stable at that position)and this certainly doesn't seem like a game that should carry a DD spread imo

good luck

 

[trentmoney]

5* ole miss +3.5

team on the rise vs team on the decline...

ole miss defensive strength (run defense) matches up well vs LSU, not sure if QB Lee can exploit ole miss defensive weakness, or if Miles even tries to with the int problems Lee has been dealing with (int in 9 of 10 games, 3 multiple int games)

Lsu defense has struggled with big plays vs explosive offenses, and ole miss has playmakers on their offense...#24 ypp/#24 ypr/#24 pya shows they are able to make big plays on the ground and thru the air!!

If you started the season 6 games ago, miss would be 4-2 with wins at Florida and on the road at Arkansas, DD over Auburn and a close loss at Alabama (24-20).
Lsu last 6 games are 3-3 with blowout losses to Florida and UGA and a home loss to Alabama... in fact, their last two wins are vs non-bcs schools (Tulane and nail-biter last week vs Troy)
so based on their most recent performance who would be ranked higher in a power poll if the season started 6 games ago..?? The answer is obvious, but since LSU is defending nat'l champs who started the season ranked and began 4-0 with a win at then #10 auburn propelling them to a #4 ranking Lsu is still ahead of ole miss and ranked #18

Another matchup where the dog not only has the advantage on the ground but the better play at QB (and more stability)

good luck

 

[MSUSpartans]

i was expecting -14 and would have jumped on it if it was lower...

it has "Value" if you think mich st can play with them and possibly beat them
but in terms of "Line Value" this is what it should be. just consider:

psu -14.5 home to Illinois week 5
psu -7.5 @ Iowa (change homefield and that is -14.5 as well)

precedent has been set for psu as a 2 TD fav at home against the good teams in conference (i know illinois has underachieved but has as much talent as anyone and is capable of playing well so talent-level wise they are on the same level-especially early in the year when the played psu- as iowa and mich st)

now you will notice that psu did not cover either of those so i certainly can understand your thinking

good luck

I snagged it at +15. I was expecting this line to be about 11-12. So I see value for me. From what you are saying, you're not touching it?

 

[trentmoney]

3* penn st -16

huge advantage in ypr for penn st
senior day with a lot of seniors in important positions
dominant team in the b10 all year with a chance to go to rose bowl

 

[MSUSpartans]

lol

You werent gonna play it above 14, then you make a 3* at -16?????

Nice call anyways as they dominated a weak Brian Hoyer (and may I add a bad gameplan by Dantonio).

If Penn State only got 3 downs to get a 1st, then this game would have been 17-10, lol.

I've never seen so much blown coverage on 3rd long as I did in this game. MSU would back them up to 3rd & 11, 3rd & 14, etc, and then PSU would convert every time by a screen pass or weak slant! At least the best team in the B10 is going to the Rose Bowl. I'd like to see a USC-PSU matchup and hoping Oregon State isnt there!

Congrats on a great week!

 

[trentmoney]

lol

You werent gonna play it above 14, then you make a 3* at -16?????

Nice call anyways as they dominated a weak Brian Hoyer (and may I add a bad gameplan by Dantonio).

If Penn State only got 3 downs to get a 1st, then this game would have been 17-10, lol.

I've never seen so much blown coverage on 3rd long as I did in this game. MSU would back them up to 3rd & 11, 3rd & 14, etc, and then PSU would convert every time by a screen pass or weak slant! At least the best team in the B10 is going to the Rose Bowl. I'd like to see a USC-PSU matchup and hoping Oregon State isnt there!

Congrats on a great week!

actually if you read my post i say if it opened under 14 i would have jumped on it...
at 14.5 i was waiting for it to come down but it never did
then dr bob hit it and it went to 16
it was worth it to wait and see if it would come back down but it never did
so i took it at 16...

the problem with mich st is that they are a really good "mid-level" team (better than northwestern/minnesota/Wisconsin/Illinois) masquerading as an elite team (9-2 and 6-1 in conference before saturday)
unfortunately they will probably be paired up against an elite team from sec or b12 in their bowl game instead of against nebraska/kansas/Auburn/Vandy

:toast:

 

[MSUSpartans]

actually if you read my post i say if it opened under 14 i would have jumped on it...
at 14.5 i was waiting for it to come down but it never did
then dr bob hit it and it went to 16
it was worth it to wait and see if it would come back down but it never did
so i took it at 16...

the problem with mich st is that they are a really good "mid-level" team (better than northwestern/minnesota/Wisconsin/Illinois) masquerading as an elite team (9-2 and 6-1 in conference before saturday)
unfortunately they will probably be paired up against an elite team from sec or b12 in their bowl game instead of against nebraska/kansas/Auburn/Vandy

:toast:

I have no illusions about MSU. They are def not an elite team, yet. Especially with an average QB and one-dimensional offense. But Dantonio had to play with his strengths and will change with his QB next year. I have hope for the future, a top 15 recruiting class and a gunslinger in Nicholl. 3 top O-lineman, a linebacker and RB.
I cant be dissapointed though, with they way they overachieved this year. Looking like an Outback Bowl vs South Carolina.

:toast:

 

[trentmoney]

I have no illusions about MSU. They are def not an elite team, yet. Especially with an average QB and one-dimensional offense. But Dantonio had to play with his strengths and will change with his QB next year. I have hope for the future, a top 15 recruiting class and a gunslinger in Nicholl. 3 top O-lineman, a linebacker and RB.
I cant be dissapointed though, with they way they overachieved this year. Looking like an Outback Bowl vs South Carolina.

:toast:

i love their young receivers/greg jones is an anchor/good young dt's/depth in secondary... Dantonio has shown he has this team on the right track... would rank them #3 in conferene for next year after oh st/penn st (although if illinois can get their head on straight they could challenge for that spot)

 

[trentmoney]

last week 3-0

2* mississippi -16

i missed a good number but was busy early in the week and my computer was down... under 14 and this would be an even bigger play

ole miss is clicking on all cylinders and provide a matchup nightmare for miss st... rebels weakness is pass defense, though not a strong suit for miss st as they are #104 pya...bulldogs look for success on the ground, but #7 run defense in the country will make that difficult. ole miss explosive on offense, #4 in nation in yds/completion with ok st only bcs team ahead of them...miss st one of the weakest teams on offense as they are #100 ypr and #109 ypp

miss st has been horrendous on road, scoring 14 @ la tech, 7 @ g tech, 3 @ tennessee, and 7 @ alabama, while giving up over 30 @ gtech, lsu, tenn and bama...miss looking for berth in cotton bowl, revenge for last year and senior day should keep them focused in egg bowl

good luck

 

[trentmoney]

4* nc st +1.5

rehash all the numbers i've mentioned the last 4 weeks...now throw in a chance for bowl eligibility and final game at home for seniors

miami lost their chance at an acc championship last week in loss to gtech...now go back on the road to face a surging wolfpack team...this has been a great year for the young canes but the end of the season proves tough...wins on the road vs duke and a close one at uva might have elevated this team to a higher plane than they should be, while road game at gtech proved tougher

good luck

 

[GoSooners]

4* nc st +1.5

rehash all the numbers i've mentioned the last 4 weeks...now throw in a chance for bowl eligibility and final game at home for seniors

miami lost their chance at an acc championship last week in loss to gtech...now go back on the road to face a surging wolfpack team...this has been a great year for the young canes but the end of the season proves tough...wins on the road vs duke and a close one at uva might have elevated this team to a higher plane than they should be, while road game at gtech proved tougher

good luck

Trent...I hope your right about this one since I've got Miami at Under 7.5 wins for the year for a big play. I was tempted to hedge my bet and play Miami small today. But I'm going to lay off the game since in a roundabout way my money is already on NC State.


Good luck!

 

[manchild]

Would any of you to have any info on Kentucky+4 and Oregon +3?

 

[trentmoney]

Trent...I hope your right about this one since I've got Miami at Under 7.5 wins for the year for a big play. I was tempted to hedge my bet and play Miami small today. But I'm going to lay off the game since in a roundabout way my money is already on NC State.


Good luck!

computer has been down so haven't been on too much lately...

i had um u8-150 so last week vs gtech was the big game for me...i was in a no-lose situation as i was either going to win my future or push.

i'm trying not to let future plays dictate my wagers...if a future play ends up costing you a winning wager than ultimately it was a costly mistake to make that future play. i'm no longer doing that-i'm making my wagers independently of my future plays...that would have cost me 4* if i laid off this game bc of my future, which only won me 1*

 

[trentmoney]

2-0 last week

2* w va -7

usf hasn't played a good game against a good team since september 12 vs kansas...

south florida has just plain been bad since starting out 5-0, committing too many penalites, allowing too many sacks, turning the ball over too much, and not settling on a featured back... 1-3 last 4, 2-4 last 6 with wins at home over syracuse and a nail-biter over uconn that could have gone either way to end a 3 game skid... kind of odd scheduling as well, with a week off over the holidays after their final home game of the season (senior night), now have to take a long road trip to morgantown for a cold sat night game...not much to play for either, as with a win they will most likely be going to st pete bowl, and with a loss most likely going to the st pete bowl..!!

West Virginia, after losing a tough road game on a short week to their bitter rival, now look to get the bad taste out of their mouth with a victory to end the season in front of a prime-time national audience on senior night in pat white's last game in morgantown against a team that they've lost to the past two years

Mountaineers' ability to run the ball and not turn the ball over (#8 in ncaa) should be the difference against a team that has had trouble running the ball (#66 ypr)and has turned the ball over too many times...all 7 of WV victories have been by 7 or more, and considering they were -8 vs cincy (in hindsight an overlay but good for comparing lines), -3 at uconn and pitt (which means -10 @ home) the spread is right for this game, even leaning towards some value for WV

good luck

 

[trentmoney]

2-0 last week

2* w va -7

usf hasn't played a good game against a good team since september 12 vs kansas...

south florida has just plain been bad since starting out 5-0, committing too many penalites, allowing too many sacks, turning the ball over too much, and not settling on a featured back... 1-3 last 4, 2-4 last 6 with wins at home over syracuse and a nail-biter over uconn that could have gone either way to end a 3 game skid... kind of odd scheduling as well, with a week off over the holidays after their final home game of the season (senior night), now have to take a long road trip to morgantown for a cold sat night game...not much to play for either, as with a win they will most likely be going to st pete bowl, and with a loss most likely going to the st pete bowl..!!

West Virginia, after losing a tough road game on a short week to their bitter rival, now look to get the bad taste out of their mouth with a victory to end the season in front of a prime-time national audience on senior night in pat white's last game in morgantown against a team that they've lost to the past two years

Mountaineers' ability to run the ball and not turn the ball over (#8 in ncaa) should be the difference against a team that has had trouble running the ball (#66 ypr)and has turned the ball over too many times...all 7 of WV victories have been by 7 or more, and considering they were -8 vs cincy (in hindsight an overlay but good for comparing lines), -3 at uconn and pitt (which means -10 @ home) the spread is right for this game, even leaning towards some value for WV

good luck

after further research and thought i've determined that WV qualifies as a 3* play

:toast:

 

[pezgordo]

after further research and thought i've determined that WV qualifies as a 3* play

:toast:

What's up Trent?

You looking at any totals for this week? I see you like WVU -7, what about the UNDER? USF has scored 20 or less points in 4 straight games (1st time in school history).

Pitt/UCONN UNDER? After Pitts big win last weeek could you see them being a little down this week and struggling offensively?

Lastly, I've been burned two weeks in a row taking BC UNDER, but this game sure looks like it is going to be a defensive slugfest. Would love to see a higher number, but still tend to doubt either team reaches 20 points in this one.

Talk to you soon and GL this week.

 

[trentmoney]

What's up Trent?

You looking at any totals for this week? I see you like WVU -7, what about the UNDER? USF has scored 20 or less points in 4 straight games (1st time in school history).

Pitt/UCONN UNDER? After Pitts big win last weeek could you see them being a little down this week and struggling offensively?

Lastly, I've been burned two weeks in a row taking BC UNDER, but this game sure looks like it is going to be a defensive slugfest. Would love to see a higher number, but still tend to doubt either team reaches 20 points in this one.

Talk to you soon and GL this week.

i had a rough stretch with totals so laid off them... naturally following that most of the totals i would have played came in..!! here are my thoughts:

i could see w va in a blowout, so that could push the total over

pitt's defensive weakness is against the pass, which uconn doesn't try to exploit...i could see both of these teams running over 40 and passing less than 25 so i would lean under

BC, while you've been burned with them last 2 weeks, both could have, and probably should have, gone under...don't stray, i think this one stays under

good luck

 

[clutch]

i had a rough stretch with totals so laid off them... naturally following that most of the totals i would have played came in..!! here are my thoughts:

i could see w va in a blowout, so that could push the total over

pitt's defensive weakness is against the pass, which uconn doesn't try to exploit...i could see both of these teams running over 40 and passing less than 25 so i would lean under

BC, while you've been burned with them last 2 weeks, both could have, and probably should have, gone under...don't stray, i think this one stays under

good luck

Betting BC and Vtech unders always look like great plays according to the stats.

It seems like every week 1,2 or 3 fluky defensive or special teams TD's blow them up.

 

[pezgordo]

i had a rough stretch with totals so laid off them... naturally following that most of the totals i would have played came in..!! here are my thoughts:

i could see w va in a blowout, so that could push the total over

pitt's defensive weakness is against the pass, which uconn doesn't try to exploit...i could see both of these teams running over 40 and passing less than 25 so i would lean under

BC, while you've been burned with them last 2 weeks, both could have, and probably should have, gone under...don't stray, i think this one stays under

good luck

Trent, thanks for the thoughts. I'm still debating the BC/VT total, but I did go ahead and take BC (pick) on the side.

GL this weekend