The Money Team Wins - Sunday CBB NCAA BK 137-103 (57%)
Last 58 Days 72-53 (58%)
This Week 12-5 (71%)
Canisius -2.5 (BIG WIN)
I'm sticking with the team playing better and at home, Canisius. Along with winning three of four, they've covered the spread in four straight. Their offense is on fire right now, and their defense has been slightly better. Fairfield is only 4-9 in away games this season, and their numbers dip on both ends of the floor on the road. Canisius' offense will have a better performance than the first time around and put too much pressure on Fairfield's putrid offense. Take the Golden Griffins to beat the spread for a fifth consecutive game.
Montana beat Idaho by 11, covering the spread too, despite only shooting 33.3% on threes in the first matchup. That's well below their three-point percentage for the season and lower than Idaho's opponents usually shoot from beyond the arc. If the Grizzlies could beat them by 11 despite not fully taking advantage of their great three-point shooting against a terrible three-point defense, I'd hate to see what happens when they're hot. Well, over the last five games, the Grizzlies are drilling 47.1% of their triples, a number that would make Steph Curry blush. Expect them to get plenty of open looks and knock them down en route to a blowout victory in this one. Take Montana to beat the spread.
Portland State -2.5 (LOST)
The home team has won eight of the last 10 meetings between these clubs, with Portland State winning four straight meetings against Sacramento State at home. They have covered the spread in each of those four games, narrowly doing so in the last two, covering it by 0.5 points in each contest.
That could be a likely scenario for this contest as well. The Vikings are not playing great basketball of late, as they are 1-4 in their last five games at home. However, Sacramento State has dropped seven straight on the road, but have not been blown out, especially in the last two games where they have lost my combined total of six points. Look for this to be a close contest of nearly 1 my Portland state.
This Week 4-2 (67%) Last Week 12-5 (71%) Indiana -5.5 (LOST)
I expect Indiana to come out with a ton of focus and intensity on Tuesday night after what happened the first time these teams met. The Hoosiers held a 21-point lead on the road in that game before collapsing in the second half, but I expect them to fare much better at home in the rematch. Iowa relies far too much on its offense for me to feel comfortable backing the Hawkeyes on the road, especially after their emotional comeback win on Saturday. They have only picked up one win in their last six road games and are 1-4 against the spread in their last five games at Indiana. The Hoosiers are riding a six-game home winning streak and should have no problem extending that streak on Tuesday.
Georgia Tech +8.5 (BIG WIN SU 96-76)
While Syracuse will likely win considering their home performance and Georgia Tech's inability to win on the road, I'm not sure that they'll dominate. The Yellow Jackets are playing very well right now, which is why they've covered in six straight, including their last three road contests. Defensively these teams are similar, and Georgia Tech should have a better performance on that end of the floor than they did against Syracuse in January. The Orange have a winnable game in front of them amid a losing streak, and a return to their home floor, but a win probably won't come easy with how they're playing recently. Take Georgia Tech to keep this game within nine points when it's all settled.
Buffalo -1 (BIG WIN 85-75 CLOSED @ -4.5)
Buffalo stomped Northern Illinois last time they played and that's for good reason. Even though they have similar records, Northern Illinois just does not match up well with Buffalo. Buffalo plays at a frenetic pace and is one of the highest scoring teams in the country. They rank among the best in the country in steals and the Huskies struggle with turnovers. Also, the Bulls have a distinct size advantage, so they should be able to dominate the boards and get those second chance points. In a recent head to head comparison, the Huskies squeaked past CMU while Buffalo dominated the Chippewas. The Bulls will need this to lock up a MAC tourney berth so look for them to get it done.
Remember, for as ugly as Tulsa’s record is (5-23), their record ATS is even worse at 4-22-2. They aren’t just losing, but getting blown out expectedly. On the road, they’re 1-10-0 ATS this season, and since that win, they’re 0-5-0 ATS in away games. Of those five games, only one was within 20 points at the final buzzer, and it wasn’t any of the last four. USF isn’t a powerhouse by any metric, but their offense is miles ahead of Tulsa’s, and their defense is at least capable of defending the paint. The Bulls dominated Tulsa on the road already, winning by 27 and shooting 62.1% while forcing 18 turnovers. At home where they’re better, whereas the Golden Hurricane is worse on the road, USF should end this one quickly. Take the Bulls to beat the spread against Tulsa again.
George Washington +8 (BIG WIN SU 75-70)
While I believe Davidson will win this game, with the way George Washington is playing it’s hard to imagine them losing by nine or more points. Their last two games as underdogs were on the road, and the Colonials not only forced overtime but wound up winning. Only one of Davidson’s wins during their winning streak was by at least nine. Offensively, these teams stack up fairly similarly, and while the home court and defensive edge is all Davidson, I’m not sure if it’ll be enough to dominate a George Washington team that’s been feisty the past couple of weeks. I like George Washington keeping it close and covering for a fourth straight time.
Utah State -2.5 (BIG WIN)
The last time these teams met Utah State took a nine-point lead into the half, then watched the Rebels rally to pull within a few points before falling by four. Both teams shot quite well in that game, with the Rebels hitting 49.0% of their shots while the Aggies were at 51.0%. The difference was that Utah State hit seven more free throws in the game and had six more free-throw attempts.
They may not get that type of hometown officiating here, which should help UNLV to keep this game closer. However, the Rebels have been struggling offensively of late, producing 69 points or fewer in each of their last three games, and have been held the 71 points or fewer in five straight contests. Utah State was held to 65 by Wyoming, but this is a team that is capable of putting up 85.
In the first game between the two, a key was Rider's success in transition. Rider outscored St. Peter's 22-8 in fastbreak points. St. Peter's needs to score in transition because the Peacocks shoot just .284 from three-point range, which entering Wednesday was 358th nationally. Rider isn't a great three-point team (.324) but in the first game, the Broncs shot 8-for-12 from deep (.667) while St. Peter's was 5-of-20 (.250). St. Peter's is 6-5 against the spread at home, but Rider is 9-3 ATS on the road. The Peacocks are 1-3 ATS in their last four home games. Rider is 4-0 ATS in its last four road contests.
Iona -16 (WON 93-74)
Taking Iona to cover their spread in this one for multiple reasons. The Gaels are the better team overall, ranking better in both offensive and defensive efficiency according to Kenpom. Last time these teams faced off, Iona won easily on the road by 27 points, and I expect a similar result in this one. The Gaels average 76 points per game on the season and shoot over 35% from deep, while the Red Foxes only average 63 points per game on the season, and shoot just over 30% from deep. The Gaels also rank considerably higher in adjusted tempo, meaning we can expect them to out pace Marist throughout the game. Iona has covered in seven of their past eight game leading into this one, making me confident in taking them to cover their spread.
Michigan +5 (WON 87-91)
There is no better time for Michigan to pick up its first win over Illinois during the Howard era than Thursday night, as the Wolverines can get on the right side of the bubble. They have won and covered the spread in six of their last eight games, moving into the first four out of most projections. I also think the injury situation favors Michigan. Jett Howard has a great chance to return for the Wolverines, while Illinois is going to be without its third-leading scorer. Mayer also missed multiple days of practice after reportedly drinking five Monster energy drinks on Sunday…so take that for whatever it’s worth.
SMU +6.5 (LOST)
The first time these teams met, Memphis grabbed a 15-point victory as SMU shot 37% from the field in the game while the Tigers hit 54.0% of their shots. SMU kept this game as close as they did by hitting 23 of 33 free throws. Otherwise, this could have been a 25-point blowout.
While Memphis is clearly the better team, SMU has been quite impressive at staying in games of late. In fact, three of their last four losses have been by five points or fewer. That is why 7.5 points may be a little much for this contest, especially considering that Memphis is 12-15-2 against the spread. The Tigers have beaten their last three opponents by five points or fewer.
Hampton -1 (LOST) Hampton finished the season strong, winning two and dropping the third by one on the road in overtime. Monmouth, did not, dropping their last four, although the tightest was against this very Hampton team. We've seen this matchup twice though, and both times the Pirates shot over 49.0% from the field and 40% from three against the Hawks. In both games, Hampton has held a lead of at least 17 points at one point, while Monmouth hasn't been ahead of the Pirates by more than two in the 80 minutes they've played against each other. We've seen the Hawks win the turnover battle in both meetings, and it meant absolutely nothing. Hampton seems to have their number this season, granted most teams do, and I expect the Pirates to beat the spread against Monmouth for a third time in 2023.
This Week 10-6 (63%)
Last Week 12-5 (71%) Elon PK (LOST)
I see these teams as roughly on equal footing, and with this game being on a neutral court, there's no advantage there. So, I'm siding with the school that was much less reliant on home-court advantage this season, Elon. William & Mary didn't have any games on a neutral site this season, but in away games, they were 1-14 straight up and 2-12-2 ATS. In day games this season they're also 3-8-1 ATS. Elon had two neutral-court games, losing both straight up and ATS, but finished the season 10-5-0 ATS on the road. In day games, they were 10-4-0 ATS. Elon shot at a higher percentage and outrebounded the Tribe in both head-to-head meetings as well. Strip away home court, and I think Elon has a great chance in this one.
Drexel -9.5 (BIG WIN)
It was fun seeing a Monmouth team that spent most of the season as a doormat get to pummel another team, especially on neutral footing. However, I wouldn't hold my breath for a repeat performance. While Monmouth used a monster second half at home to comeback and barely beat Drexel, the Dragons won three of the four halves they played against the Hawks by double digits. Drexel's defense will be the best unit on the floor, and their offense should have no issue against Monmouth's defense. Roll with the Dragons to beat the spread.
Stony Brook +2.5 (WON BIG SU)
It seems like Stony Brook has NC A&T's number this season. When they lost on the road, they lead for a good chunk of the game, by as much as 10, and if it weren't for a 5:28 scoreless stretch in a two-point loss, they likely win. In the Stony Brook win over the Aggies, they overcame an early 13-point deficit by dominating the second half, eventually winning by 10. The common themes in both games were the Seawolves shutting down NC A&T's offense, controlling the glass completely, and shooting better from the free-throw line. Well, in tight games in March, free throws and rebounding make a massive difference, and everything points towards the Seawolves holding that edge in this game. I like them to pull this one out.
Oregon State -7 (LOST)
Oregon State dismantled California in January, and this game seems a nice opportunity for the Beavers to stop their four-game slide and build their confidence ahead of the championship tournament. The Beavers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games played in March and 4-1 ATS in their previous five home contests played on Saturday. On the other side, Cal is 1-4 ATS in its past five games overall.
This Week 11-7 (61%)
Last Two Weeks 23-12 (66%) Hofstra -13.5 (BIG WIN 94-46)
Not only did Hofstra win their final 11 games, but they also beat the spread in 10 of those contests. Eight of the wins in the streak came by at least 14 points. They may start a little rusty, especially against a team that just had to fight for their life 24 hours earlier, but when they find their footing, only a few CAA teams can challenge them. I don't see William & Mary as one of those teams. The Pride are better on both ends of the floor and aren't facing the Tribe on the road this time. Take Hofstra to cover.
Rutgers -5 (LOST 53-65)
This is the final game of the regular season and it could not be more important for both of these teams. Both come in struggling, but really need a win to shore up their tournament chances. Thing is, these are two very evenly matched teams. Both play excellent defense, but Rutgers is a little better on the defensive end, particularly at defending the three. The Scarlet Knights eked out a close win at Northwestern earlier this year and playing at home in this one, in a game they really must have after Wednesday's horrible loss to Minnesota, they find a way to win this, buoyed by the home crowd.
This Week 1-1 (50%)
Last Two Weeks 24-12 (67%) Hofstra -7.5 (LOST)
UNC Wilmington's success this season was built on defense, and on Sunday they didn't have it against a team that doesn't have a tremendous offense. Well, Hofstra does, and if they play like that again, Hofstra will light up the scoreboard and run away with the game. The way I see it, Hofstra's defense can match UNC Wilmington's, while the Seahawks offense isn't on the same level as the Pride's. For the second time during their impressive run, I think Hofstra will win and cover against UNC Wilmington.
Charleston -4.5 (WON)
Charleston's usually stout three-point defense could not contain Towson in either of the regular season meetings, yet they still managed to win both. Although they didn't cover in either, they lost against the spread by a single point each time. Well, if their defense plays closer to their season average, or Towson has another off night from three, this game should be all Charleston. I can't see the Cougars having three rough outings stopping triples against the same team in one season. It should be their focal point, and by shutting that down, they'll control the game since they nullify Towson's second-biggest strength, rebounding. Take Charleston to cover.
This Week 1-2 Last Two Weeks 24-13 (65%) Cleveland State +1.5 (LOST)
The difference in defending the three is critical to success as the Vikings are 54th in the sport with a 31.6 opposing three-point percentage while the Norse are all the way down at 308th in the nation with a 36.4 three-point percentage against. Looking at the offenses in the last handful of games, there is a sizable difference as Cleveland State is scoring 72.8 points in their last five games while Northern Kentucky averaged 79 points in their previous four games. The underdog is 3-1-1 ATS in their last five games so go with the Cleveland State Vikings to cover the spread and win the Horizon League Tournament.
The Money Team Wins - Wednesday College Basketball
NCAA BK 152-113 (57%)
This Week 3-3 (50%) Last Two Weeks 26-14 (65%) Washington State -14 (WON)
Cal has been awful all season, as their 3-28 mark would attest to, but injuries have made things even tougher for them. The Golden Bears have struggled when it comes to putting games in the win column as they find ways to blow leads, as we saw against Oregon State in the finale Saturday. Cal has lost two of their top three scoring options, leaving them shorthanded on a team that is dead last in Division I when it comes to scoring offense this season. Meanwhile, Washington State comes in winners of six straight games and they have owned Cal in the last few seasons. There’s little reason to expect things to be different here. Look for Washington State to advance to the quarterfinals by winning this one convincingly.
Wisconsin +2.5 (LOST)
Ohio State has been one of the worst teams to bet on this season, and now they have lost their best post player for the season, this is not the time to think they will get hot. Ohio State has only covered 35.5% of their games this season, this is in the bottom 20 of all of Division 1, and Zed Key will be out for the rest of the season. Wisconsin may not have a star player, but they have four really good players in Hepburn, Essegian, Wahl, and Crowl. Wahl and Crowl will be the difference makers here, as Ohio State no longer has high quality bigs to defend at the rim. This game is a difference of styles as OSU is better on offense, and Wisconsin is much better on defense. I will trust the defense to get it done on the opening day of the conference tournament as Wisconsin will move on.
Villanova -12 (WON)
Neither one of these teams have been a good bet this season, as Villanova is 13-18 against the spread while Georgetown is 14-18. But Georgetown has been playing worse against the spread in recent weeks. They have failed to cover in their last three games and all of them were blowouts. Ultimately, it will come down to defense. Georgetown gives up more than 78 points per game and is ranked among the worst in the nation in defensive efficiency. Ultimately, it may come down to free throws as Villanova is the best free throw shooting team in the country and those crunch time free throws will allow them to cover.
When looking at Ken Pom’s adjusted efficiency margin, there is a large difference between these programs as Toledo is 4th in the nation with a +9.58 rating while Miami is currently down at 266th in college basketball with a -8.05 rating thus far. A massive difference has been the ability to shoot the ball from beyond the arc as the Rockets are second in the entire sport with a 40.7 team three-point percentage while the RedHawks are all the way down at 229th in NCAA with a 33 team percentage from distance. The favorite is 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games against one another so go with the Toledo Rockets to cover the spread in this meeting as well.
Michigan -2.5 (LOST)
Michigan has the better big man, and the better supporting cast in this matchup. This game weighs heavily on the tournament hopes for both teams. In a matchup of two of the best bigs in the country, Hunter Dickinson has the edge over Clifford Omoruyi in the post. Dickinson has 2 inches and 20 pounds on Omoruyi, and is the better scorer. Dickinson averages 18.2 PPG, while Omoruyi averages 13.5. They play different styles, which will benefit the Wolverines. Dickinson can step out and hit outside shots, which will force Omoruyi out from under the basket and open up lanes for the other Michigan players. Omoruyi scores the majority of his points around the basket, but that won't be easy against the bigger Dickinson. Michigan also has Jett Howard and Kobe Bufkin scoring on the perimeter, and Rutgers' Caleb McConnell cant guard both of them at the same time. Michigan is the better team, and will advance in this game.
Penn State +2.5 (WON SU)
The old saying is that it is tough to beat a team three times in one season, but statistics show that is not true. When one team is better, or has a specific mismatch to capitalize on, they can win all three matchups. Penn State beat Illinois twice this season, both times by at least 10 points, and are getting points here as the underdog. Penn State is the play. The mismatch here is the spacing Penn State creates against the size of Illinois. The Illini have plenty of bigs around the basket in Mayer, Hawkins and Dainja, but size doesn't help when the other team can space you out with shooters. Jalen Pickett averages 7 assists a game by penetrating and finding shooters on the perimeter. Lundy and Funk are the two best shooters in the conference based upon amount of made threes. This eliminates the Illini's size advantage on defense. Jalen Pickett has put together an incredible season, and will help his team in this one.
The Money Team Wins - Friday College Basketball
NCAA BK 155-116 (57%)
This Week 6-6 (50%)
Purdue -5.5 (LOST)
Purdue has recently fallen to 5th in the AP Polls, and landed on a 2-seed in Joe Lunardi's Bracketology. That is all the motivation Purdue needs to play well and dominate this game. The Boilermakers were the top team in the country for most of the year, and want to get back on that 1-seed for the NCAA Tournament. Rutgers' big man Omoruyi struggled against Hunter Dickinson in the Second Round, he only had 6 points on 3-10 shooting. Zach Edey poses an even bigger problem for Omoruyi, as the Purdue big man should be able to slow down Omoruyi again. Asking Rutgers to win back to back games without big performances from their top scorer will be too much to ask. This is also a revenge game, as Rutgers gave Purdue one of their few conference losses this season. This number is too low as Purdue will come ready to play and cover this number easily.
Michigan State -4 (LOST)
The Ohio State Cinderella run through the conference tournament will come to an end here. Ohio State has momentum, but Michigan State has had their number all season. The Spartans held OSU to 41 points in their first game this season, and were also able to beat them by 6 in the rematch. Ohio State has played close games on back-to-back days, and the fatigue will start to set in. Tyson Walker has been scoring well as of late, and will be the best guard on the floor for this matchup. Joey Hauser will cause problems for the Buckeyes' defense, as the 6'9 forward can score near the bucket or knock down threes at a high rate. Ohio State has been playing all-guard lineups since the Zed Key injury, and Michigan State will look to dominate this game on the inside. Take the Spartans to end this late run by Ohio State.
Penn State PK (WINNER)
Penn State is coming into the game with momentum and has drawn a great matchup for the quarterfinals. Northwestern is the 2-seed, but they are not overwhelmingly strong, the 3-seed Indiana is ranked higher nationally and is projected to be a higher NCAA seed. Penn State will take advantage of this Northwestern team, as the Nittany Lions have been shooting the ball extremely well and the whole team plays off Jalen Pickett's action. The guards of Penn State are stronger and better shooters than Northwestern's backcourt. Penn State won the only matchup between these teams this season, and can pull it off again. Penn State is not guaranteed a spot in the NCAA Tournament, but a win here would all but lock up their at-large bid. Penn State is more motivated and will cause headaches for the Wildcats all game long.
The Money Team Wins - Saturday College Basketball
NCAA BK 156-116 (57%)
This Week 7-6 (54%)
Purdue -7 (BIG WIN)
Ohio State has made an impressive run in the Big Ten Tournament, but they now face the most dominant team in the league. Ohio State is a team full or guards who can score from the perimeter, but due to the injury to their big man Zed Key, they have a weakness in the post. This is a bad recipe when they have to play Purdue, with the best post player in the nation. Ohio State also played against Michigan State without Brice Sensabaugh, he is not a center, but at 6'6 235 pounds he is an important piece for the Buckeyes. Purdue will have the advantage inside on both ends of the floor, and will end this Cinderella run of Ohio State. Braden Smith is a lockdown defender for Purdue, and will cause problems for the Buckeyes' guards. Edey will be the difference maker, there is no way Ohio State will be able to stop them with their depleted front line. Take Purdue to win and cover.
This Week 8-7 (53%) Princeton +3.5 (WON BIG SU) In that second matchup, Princeton couldn't hold on to an eight-point lead at the half. That was their only loss at home this season and revenge will be sweet. These are two pretty even teams who both go to the boards, but this game is played in Princeton, New Jersey, which is a big advantage for Princeton even though Yale is the No. 1 seed. The Tigers have covered three straight and six of their last eight. It's also not easy to beat the same team three straight times in a season.
Purdue -7 (LOST)
Purdue has been dominating the Big Ten all season and they won't stop now. Penn State has shot the ball well in the tournament, but they have not faced a defense like Purdue's. Edey takes away any easy opportunity at the hoop, and Braden Smith is an elite defender who will give Pickett problems on the perimeter. Penn State is also a guard heavy team, they often play four or five guards, which is a terrible matchup when going against Edey. Ohio State played a similar guard heavy lineup, and Edey gave them 32 points and 14 rebounds in an easy win. Edey will do the same here, Penn State does not have an interior defender capable of slowing down Edey inside. The big man dominated all season, and will end the Big Ten season with one more big performance.
