Recap 2-0 +$6,300 (100%)
LAST 7 DAYS 11-3 +$34,640 (79%)
March Madness 26-18 (59%)
Regular Season YTD 157-117 (57%) 4K NORTH TEXAS +2 (WON)
2K NORTH TEXAS ML +115 (WON)
In the three games this season, the Mean Green won the two regular-season games and then UAB took them down in the semifinals of the CUSA Tournament. Wins ATS followed suit, as have the last ten games for each team, both 7-3 ATS in that span. But for the season it was the Mean Green in much better control of their spreads than the Blazers were. North Texas is 3-0 ATS in their last three games, two of them against majors, and 6-2 ATS at neutral sites this season. Their defense has a way to make other teams falter at what they are trying to do by way of making it very difficult to find a good place to shoot on the court. Familiarity will be what makes this a close game, ultimately. It’s not very often teams get a fourth crack at each other in a season. North Texas is 11-2 ATS in their last 13 game following a straight-up win. Take the Mean Green.
Recap 0-3 (-$13,200)
Last 9 Days 11-6 +$21,440 (65%)
March Madness 26-21 (55%)
Regular Season YTD 157-117 (57%) 6k San Diego State Under 132 (LOST)
With it being both teams’ first trip to the big stage, I would fully expect a slow start to the game as the wide eyes slowly begin to focus on the task at hand. KenPom ranks FAU at 155 in their tempo ratings, and San Diego State at 266, so neither team is blazing up and down the hardwood much. Also, neither team has been scorching the twine, with FAU’s 42.1% shooting in the tournament the best of the two. KenPom has both highly rated on the defensive side of the ball, with the Owls ranked 30th in adjusted defense and the Aztecs ranked 4th. San Diego State has given up 57 or fewer points in three of four games in this tournament and in five of their last six overall. Florida Atlantic has held two teams to 65 or less in the NCAA Tournament and five of their last seven. The under is 8-0 in the Aztecs’ last eight games after an ATS win and are 4-0 in their four tournament games this season.
4k Miami +5.5 (LOST)
There has been a lot of attention centered around how dominant UConn has been in their Final Four run, and justifiably so, they have been excellent. There has been far less hype around this Miami team that beat the #1 seed Houston soundly by 14 and had an incredible late run to beat the #2 seed Texas. Miami’s guard-heavy lineup has been unstoppable, they scored 85 or more in their last three games, playing against very strong teams. UConn only scored over 85 in one out of their last three. UConn has the size advantage, but will they really be able to utilize it? Clingan is 7‘2 but not a scorer on offense, and cannot defend any of the Hurricanes on the perimeter, he will not be very helpful. Sanogo is a great big, but Miami’s Omier can match up with him and limit his production. UConn will have to play small to keep up with Miami, and the Hurricanes play small ball better than the Huskies. Pack has been on fire lately and won Most Outstanding Player in his region, Miller literally did not miss a shot in the Elite 8 on his way to 27 points, and Wong is the ACC Player of the Year. This Hurricane team is too good and too difficult to match up with to be getting this many points. This could turn into a classic March Madness game, coming down to the last few possessions, and in that scenario, it is nice to be plus 5.5.
2k Miami Over 149 (LOST)
As previously stated, Miami has scored 85 or more in their past three games. Their offense has been electric lately, with multiple players hitting outside shots, stretching defenses, and opening up driving lanes. Miami is in the top fourth of the country in terms of tempo, ranking 90th out of 363 teams. The Hurricanes like to play fast, and against a team like UConn with multiple bigs, they will want to speed it up even more. Miami has the 5th most efficient offense in the country, and UConn has the 3rd most efficient offense. These are two of the best-scoring teams all season. UConn will also get its fair share of points because the one weakness in this game is Miami’s defense which is only ranked 104th in efficiency. Miami has hit the over in three straight games, their strong offense and weak defense is an easy formula for an over.
The Money Team Wins - Monday Championship Game Recap 1-0 +$2,000 (100%) Last 10 Days 12-6 +$23,440 (67%)
March Madness 27-21 (56%) Regular Season YTD 157-117 (57%)
2K CONNECTICUT -7 (BIG WIN)
Connecticut has been dominating their competition all Tournament, and they will not stop now. This game has a similar feel to the college football National Championship, Georgia was the better team and blew the doors off the building when crushing TCU. UConn will win their title game in a similar manner. Sanogo is too strong inside for the Aztecs. San Diego State does have height, but no one is as strong as the Huskies’ big man. Sanogo has scored in double figures every game in the tournament. Jordan Hawkins is an elite shooter who can get his quick shot off anytime he likes. San Diego State will not be able to keep up, as their offense is only 68th in the nation and going up against the 3rd best offense with weapons everywhere. Hawkins, Calcaterra, and Karaban can all shoot from the outside, Newton and Jackson Jr. can get to the rim and find openings for others, and Sanogo and Clingan can dominate the paint. This UConn team is stacked and will roll this San Diego State team that may be feeling a little lucky to even be in this game.
