Any reference for the +1.4 true count? Every analysis I've ever seen says +3 is close to break even depending on rules, and +4 is player advantage.
I say always take insurance every time it's offered. If you can spread big, taking insurance with red chips costs pennies, but buys lots of cover for when you want insurance while betting blacks. And if there's too much heat to spread big enough, just don't even bother to sit down. Except for El Cortez, that game is just too easy to pass up no matter how sweaty they are