For those of you who have been following this thread from its inception you will notice that I began Week 9 with a proclamation on my part that I believed the games to be fixed...and then proceeded to make my selections based on that premise...the results were something to the tune of 4 of 5....It was not the other way around....
I tried posting my Week 12 picks but unfortunately they did not show up. They were made based on the same premise I began with. I also mentioned in a separate thread not started by me that Indy was the right side on Sunday Night....Many have somehow interpreted this system I have introduced as being flawed because favourites covered last year...and yet several threads I have started have dealt with the issue of how to select not only dogs but also favourites.
In regards to the Green Bay / Seattle game. I had not made any mention of this game in any thread. And there is a reason for that. Something did not sit well with me about this game. It was without question was one of the strangest games of the year....
And not because of what happened during the game but what has happening before. Many of people on this forum pretty much had it figured out by halftime. Emphasis on the word half. Throughout the week, the story was all about Favre and would he be able to start. This of course is run of the mill psy-ops that will no doubt induce some bettors to side with Seattle. Lets also keep in mind the line opened at -9.0...which in my opinion was the correct line. Then the focus change to Hassleback & Alexander & their eminent return to action. Again, clearly designed to push the Joe Square toward Seattle. Several posters highlighted this yesterday so it would appear as if people are indeed starting to pick up on this blackmagic spell the media likes to use to influence the public.
As we gametime approached the weather took a turn for the worse and an article popped up on the net talking about how Seattle was unexplicably receiving huge amounts action for no apparent reason. The article also went into detail about how certain groups use large of amounts of money to drive the line one way and then bet the opposite...The article was too vague because those groups do a lot more than bet and are a lot more involved in the game than people realize.....
I dont fully trust sportsbook percentages so I usually make my own lines and percentages and then compare...Here is sportsbooks percentages on the Green Bay / Seattle match up....
These were the percentages that sportsbook had earlier in the week....What have said before about Even Keel Percentage? The money line was actually in Green Bays favour but the Spread was Lop Sided...9 was the correct line and the people who had caught it while it stood at that number cashed....
By gametime, the numbers had reversed. Very similar to what happened in the Bears/Pats game. Green Bay was getting a high percentage on the money line. This was before the media started talking about Hassleback & Alexander. The numbers obviously reversed as it became known they would indeed be starting....so much so that it became Lop Sided and this is what the books want to see. So they move the line up to 11...while the Syndicate dumps hundreds of thousands on to Green Bay + 11 (How many PS3's you think Sony is going to Buy?)
We have to remember they have already collected quite a lot of money on the Green Bay ML. There are only a certain percentage of bettors who were wise enough to catch Seattle at -9 earlier in the week. As was the case with the New England bettors who had them at -3 before they moved it off that key number to the ridiculous -4.5.
So just like the New England game, where early and late action ended up making them a higher profit than the action they receive during the week,
the House got the Early Green Bay Action, plus the late Seattle Action. The Sharps and the Syndicate got their share and the House ends up on top yet again....and yes they middled that game....Is it a coincidence that when the games middle out, it is only the sharps & the Syndicate who end up making a profit while most of the public gets screwed over by taking the extra half point? The New England Game & the Seattle Game are identical.....
Both these teams were in a positon to cover and did cover at the early number of course. The House knows this and the early percentages show it...New England at home -3 against Grossman? Please...Seattle -9 with Hassleback & Alexander likely returning against Pick 6 Farve? Thats easy money...The House has to recoup...and thats exactly what they did....
I tried posting my Week 12 picks but unfortunately they did not show up. They were made based on the same premise I began with. I also mentioned in a separate thread not started by me that Indy was the right side on Sunday Night....Many have somehow interpreted this system I have introduced as being flawed because favourites covered last year...and yet several threads I have started have dealt with the issue of how to select not only dogs but also favourites.
In regards to the Green Bay / Seattle game. I had not made any mention of this game in any thread. And there is a reason for that. Something did not sit well with me about this game. It was without question was one of the strangest games of the year....
And not because of what happened during the game but what has happening before. Many of people on this forum pretty much had it figured out by halftime. Emphasis on the word half. Throughout the week, the story was all about Favre and would he be able to start. This of course is run of the mill psy-ops that will no doubt induce some bettors to side with Seattle. Lets also keep in mind the line opened at -9.0...which in my opinion was the correct line. Then the focus change to Hassleback & Alexander & their eminent return to action. Again, clearly designed to push the Joe Square toward Seattle. Several posters highlighted this yesterday so it would appear as if people are indeed starting to pick up on this blackmagic spell the media likes to use to influence the public.
As we gametime approached the weather took a turn for the worse and an article popped up on the net talking about how Seattle was unexplicably receiving huge amounts action for no apparent reason. The article also went into detail about how certain groups use large of amounts of money to drive the line one way and then bet the opposite...The article was too vague because those groups do a lot more than bet and are a lot more involved in the game than people realize.....
I dont fully trust sportsbook percentages so I usually make my own lines and percentages and then compare...Here is sportsbooks percentages on the Green Bay / Seattle match up....
These were the percentages that sportsbook had earlier in the week....What have said before about Even Keel Percentage? The money line was actually in Green Bays favour but the Spread was Lop Sided...9 was the correct line and the people who had caught it while it stood at that number cashed....
By gametime, the numbers had reversed. Very similar to what happened in the Bears/Pats game. Green Bay was getting a high percentage on the money line. This was before the media started talking about Hassleback & Alexander. The numbers obviously reversed as it became known they would indeed be starting....so much so that it became Lop Sided and this is what the books want to see. So they move the line up to 11...while the Syndicate dumps hundreds of thousands on to Green Bay + 11 (How many PS3's you think Sony is going to Buy?)
We have to remember they have already collected quite a lot of money on the Green Bay ML. There are only a certain percentage of bettors who were wise enough to catch Seattle at -9 earlier in the week. As was the case with the New England bettors who had them at -3 before they moved it off that key number to the ridiculous -4.5.
So just like the New England game, where early and late action ended up making them a higher profit than the action they receive during the week,
the House got the Early Green Bay Action, plus the late Seattle Action. The Sharps and the Syndicate got their share and the House ends up on top yet again....and yes they middled that game....Is it a coincidence that when the games middle out, it is only the sharps & the Syndicate who end up making a profit while most of the public gets screwed over by taking the extra half point? The New England Game & the Seattle Game are identical.....
Both these teams were in a positon to cover and did cover at the early number of course. The House knows this and the early percentages show it...New England at home -3 against Grossman? Please...Seattle -9 with Hassleback & Alexander likely returning against Pick 6 Farve? Thats easy money...The House has to recoup...and thats exactly what they did....
Tremendous thread!
Loren- I follow your same school of thought and I just hope you continue this path through the ups and downs. I have dealt with thousands of Gamblers over the years and if can tell you that we are in the minority here (thoughts and success). I love it that so many people discount you and I hope they all continue to play the public side and continue to pay the book, so that we can continue to win. It is a shame that this thread is in the RR or maybe it is a blessing as many will not see it and will continue to believe that the world is not minipulated by those who can and will continue to lose!!!
Loren- I follow your same school of thought and I just hope you continue this path through the ups and downs. I have dealt with thousands of Gamblers over the years and if can tell you that we are in the minority here (thoughts and success). I love it that so many people discount you and I hope they all continue to play the public side and continue to pay the book, so that we can continue to win. It is a shame that this thread is in the RR or maybe it is a blessing as many will not see it and will continue to believe that the world is not minipulated by those who can and will continue to lose!!!
Maybe all of you guys with a clue should enlighten me as to how last year was a fix. I still havent heard that voodoo explanation yet. Somehow, it keeps being avoided. Hmmmmm.
Are some games fixed here and there? Certainly.
This mass conspiracy is absolutely retarded and shows how little the original poster has played organized sports in his life.
Just because he doesnt name-call anyone, and is respectful in his tone, doesnt mean he is correct.
The original poster is simply pointing out COINCIDENCE of bookmakers and oddsmakers being extremely sharp in what they do, because they have the experience of a generation, and do it for a living.
While the public sees Bears vs. Dolphins, the books see a trend, regardless of mascot, city and players.
The public gambles for fun.
If you bring out any situation in this world, and you put a professional up against some amateur off the street, the professional will always win over the long run.
Are some games fixed here and there? Certainly.
This mass conspiracy is absolutely retarded and shows how little the original poster has played organized sports in his life.
Just because he doesnt name-call anyone, and is respectful in his tone, doesnt mean he is correct.
The original poster is simply pointing out COINCIDENCE of bookmakers and oddsmakers being extremely sharp in what they do, because they have the experience of a generation, and do it for a living.
While the public sees Bears vs. Dolphins, the books see a trend, regardless of mascot, city and players.
The public gambles for fun.
If you bring out any situation in this world, and you put a professional up against some amateur off the street, the professional will always win over the long run.
Loren will you be posting your picks for this weeks games? I just read this entire thread from beginning to end. It seems like a interesting theory. I still have my doubts about fixes, but would love to see you put up some picks and see how they work out.
Recap of the Past 4 Weeks
It is weeks like this one that remind me of how difficult it can be to cap games in the NFL. Trust your gut and your instinct and dont follow the heard. The percentages will show and prove as was the case last week in one of the most blatant examples of Game Rigging the NFL has ever seen. It should be noted that the premise on which I base my selections is just that....The Fix is Indeed IN....It is not the other way around....I do not have time to elaborate on the hows and the whys. If you follow the information I have provided in my previous posts in regards to the this subject and you study the games in depth. (Please review the Tenn/Giants game of Week 12...it is essential viewing), you will understand how such an accusation can be made by this author and likely will proceed to proclaim the same....
Two of the most intriguing teams that have consistently been on my radar these past few weeks have been the Falcons...& The Bengals. If you study carefully you will realize they are both one and the same....
At the beginning of every year, the NFL has a pre determined group of public teams that will usually receive 65 percent of the action on MOST games they play except when they play teams as public as themselves....Then the percentages even out.....This year these teams would include.....
GIANTS
FALCONS
BENGALS
STEELERS
COLTS
CHARGERS
PANTHERS
SEAHAWKS
BEARS
PATRIOTS
Think long and hard about what that means to the Casinos...Ask yourselves this question...Can the Casinos afford to have these teams kinds of teams cover week in and week out if the majority of the public is on them? The answer is of course no....The Casinos understand this all too well and the Syndicate will make sure the Casinos dont have to deal with the reality of such a disaster occuring.
If you study carefully, you will realize that each of those teams listed seem to follow a formula. A pattern if you will, that they all seem to go through at varying times during the season. They will loose and or not cover to the same kinds of teams, they will win and cover to the same kind of teams. You will notice that those public teams tend to win and cover when the majority of the betting public, square & sharp have become completely fed up over them...Incidentally, the House usually does not loose money on these teams when they cover in this situation. Why is it that the Casinos seem to always be on the right side when these teams dont cover and the right side when they do...?
Study their games in depth. Much of the games these teams play will resemble one another in the sense that the percentages will so often be balanced when they cover as favourites...and unbalanced when they fail to cover as favourites....And all of it is directly tied to the fact that the Casinos some how manage week in and week out to end up on the most profitable side of the percentages on most of the games....The odds of this occuring at the rate it does is extremely unlikely...if we are dealing with a league that is actually based on real and equal competition...However if the games were how should we say, tailored to fit a certain result, we can then begin to explain the uncanny ability of the House to always end up on the right side of the percentage...
You see at the beginning of the season there are always a few teams that seem to establish themselves early by winning several games in succession or winning them in dominant fashion. The Giants and the Bears along with Bengals & the Falcons come to mind. Usually there are several teams that the media will select as superbowl favourites and or contenders. These teams quite often may not have even proven themselves yet but that is of no concern to the media. The Miami Dolphins and the Baltimore Ravens come to mind. You will notice that both those teams did not fare well early on in the season. Which means the public likely lost money betting on them. Isn't it interesting that the teams the media fawns over just happen to the teams that the public back early on in the season. The Casinos make a profit because the Dolphins and the Ravens did not start off strong...And isnt it interesting that over the course of the season as the public started to stay away from the Ravens and the Dolphins, they started fairing well....incidentally, the Casinos are still making a profit from those betting public whether they are favourites or dogs....
The idea of course is to implant false perceptions of the teams in the publics mind early on so that down the line the Casinos can make huge profits on games where the public is usually one side because of that teams past performances. Now understand this that in reality...the Bengals, Falcons, Giants, Patriots & Bears are all teams that are trully capable of running the table in the NFL. This is established early on in the season when those teams play to their true potential. Those teams then take dives for a certain amount of time during the season....only to turn it on again when the public has grown fed up of them....
THE CASINOS DONT MIND WHEN THIS HAPPENS BECAUSE THEN THOSE TEAMS CAN BE ALLOWED TO PLAY TO THEIR TRUE POTENTIAL BECAUSE THE HOUSE WILL NOT TAKE A TREMENDOUS HIT...BECAUSE THE PERCENTAGE OF ACTION THE TEAM RECEIVES WILL BE FAR LOWER THAN IT WAS PRIOR TO THEIR "LOOSING" STREAK...
We are now at a point in the season when teams like the Bengals & the Falcons as well as the Giants whom the world had left for dead, are now going to "turn it on" again. This is happening beause the public is fed up and the amount of money the House stands to loose if these teams cover as dogs or favourites is not substantial. Now it is true the Falcons will get a higher percentage of action against the Skins but so did the Bengals against the Browns who did not cover last week...Those of you who follow my formula may have been suprised by that game. Now you may understand why that game turned out the way it did.
IF YOU ARE GOING TO TAKE A DOG BECAUSE YOU THINK THE GAME MIGHT BE RIGGED...MAKE SURE THAT FAVOURITE HAS COVERED THEIR LAST GAME AS A FAVOURITE...BECAUSE TIMING IS EVERYTHING...IF YOU ARE GOING TO TAKE A FAVOURITE MAKE SURE THAT DOG HAS COVERED AS A DOG IN THEIR LAST GAME AS A DOG BECAUSE TIMING IS EVERYTHING...
This is the kind of Pattern you must pay attention to...in association with the fixed element. Can the Casinos afford to have New England and Chicago cover today? As well as Indianapolis, Dallas & Miami who are receiving some of the highest percentages today...????????????????????????
It had been weeks since the Bengals covered as favourites so it was not suprising to see them cover in that spot. It had been weeks since they covered as dogs so it was not suprisig to see them do so against the Saints...The Atlanta Falcons & the New York Giants are following an identical pattern...in that it has been weeks since they covered as favourites or dogs....it will change today...as the percentages as well as public opinion on these teams has dropped significantly...
Again Timing is everything....Dogs will cover in consecutive weeks because the percentages are so lop sided in their respective games that the House cannot afford to let the favourites cover. This is why Tennessee....has covered as a dog the last 3 straight weeks...San Francisco the last 4 straight weeks...WHY? Because in those games, they are usually receiving the lowest percentage of action compared to the teams they are facing....
Now you will notice for the past 4 weeks including this week, Tennessee has been facing teams that received a much higher percentage...and naturally the Casinos profited from this action because not one of the teams they faced covered...How convienient for them...but remember when I said to PAY ATTENTION TO WHO THEY PLAY THE NEXT WEEK...
Tennessee at Houston - Week 14
Imagine what the percentages will be like in that game...Obviously a lot more even than they would be in the Indy/Tenn match up today wouldnt it? And if Houston were to loose to Oakland, How many people would really be interested in taking them next week vs the Tennesses Titans who beat the NY Giants by scoring 21 pointsi n 9 minutes...? Not Many....Wonder what the House thinks about this?
We know about how perception can be molded. How virtually false ideas about teams can be implanted in the mind of the bettor by way of rigged matchups designed to bolster confidence in one team and hinder confidence in another...The Giants and the Dallas Cowboys come to mind....With all that I have said thus far in this post and my previous ones..I am not going to give you a lengthy write up about this one...as time does not permit it....but before wagering on this game...consider the following....PERCEPTION is playing a major role in this one....allow me to explain...
Giants are dogs at +3.5.....Ironic that the movie De ja Vu is in theatres because thats what im getting when looking at this line...
N.Y. Giants 36, Dallas 22 (-3.5) - Week 7
Since that game....The Giants have sinced gone on a "loosing streak" and depending on your point of view...they simply dont have it anymore...Dallas has gone in the opposite direction under the leadership of upstart Tony Romo...and seemingly has it all figured out...
But do they really...? They beat the Tampa Bay Bucs but so did the Giants back in Week 8. They beat the Arizona Cardinals...whom are irrelevant. And they beat the Indianapolis Colts whos coach refused to challenge a touchdown that should not have been allowed....This Dallas team who could not beat a mediocre Skins team on the road in Week 9 and failed to beat the Giants in Week 7 at home favoured by 3.5 points are now favoured on the road against a Giants team who...
Lost at Home to Chicago
Lost on the Road to Tennessee
Lost on the Road to the Jags
Dallas has covered their last 2 games as a favourite...while the Giants have not covered...as a dog or a favourite in weeks....You see where I am going with this?
I am not going to give lengthy write ups for this weeks selections as I feel my analysis thus far in regards to recent trends and what not should suffice...The selections are based upon the premise I started out with...And with that....
St Louis Rams (- 6.5)
Atlanta Falcons (+2)
Detroit Lions (+13.5)
Oakland Raiders (-3)
New York Giants (+3.5)
It is weeks like this one that remind me of how difficult it can be to cap games in the NFL. Trust your gut and your instinct and dont follow the heard. The percentages will show and prove as was the case last week in one of the most blatant examples of Game Rigging the NFL has ever seen. It should be noted that the premise on which I base my selections is just that....The Fix is Indeed IN....It is not the other way around....I do not have time to elaborate on the hows and the whys. If you follow the information I have provided in my previous posts in regards to the this subject and you study the games in depth. (Please review the Tenn/Giants game of Week 12...it is essential viewing), you will understand how such an accusation can be made by this author and likely will proceed to proclaim the same....
Two of the most intriguing teams that have consistently been on my radar these past few weeks have been the Falcons...& The Bengals. If you study carefully you will realize they are both one and the same....
At the beginning of every year, the NFL has a pre determined group of public teams that will usually receive 65 percent of the action on MOST games they play except when they play teams as public as themselves....Then the percentages even out.....This year these teams would include.....
GIANTS
FALCONS
BENGALS
STEELERS
COLTS
CHARGERS
PANTHERS
SEAHAWKS
BEARS
PATRIOTS
Think long and hard about what that means to the Casinos...Ask yourselves this question...Can the Casinos afford to have these teams kinds of teams cover week in and week out if the majority of the public is on them? The answer is of course no....The Casinos understand this all too well and the Syndicate will make sure the Casinos dont have to deal with the reality of such a disaster occuring.
If you study carefully, you will realize that each of those teams listed seem to follow a formula. A pattern if you will, that they all seem to go through at varying times during the season. They will loose and or not cover to the same kinds of teams, they will win and cover to the same kind of teams. You will notice that those public teams tend to win and cover when the majority of the betting public, square & sharp have become completely fed up over them...Incidentally, the House usually does not loose money on these teams when they cover in this situation. Why is it that the Casinos seem to always be on the right side when these teams dont cover and the right side when they do...?
Study their games in depth. Much of the games these teams play will resemble one another in the sense that the percentages will so often be balanced when they cover as favourites...and unbalanced when they fail to cover as favourites....And all of it is directly tied to the fact that the Casinos some how manage week in and week out to end up on the most profitable side of the percentages on most of the games....The odds of this occuring at the rate it does is extremely unlikely...if we are dealing with a league that is actually based on real and equal competition...However if the games were how should we say, tailored to fit a certain result, we can then begin to explain the uncanny ability of the House to always end up on the right side of the percentage...
You see at the beginning of the season there are always a few teams that seem to establish themselves early by winning several games in succession or winning them in dominant fashion. The Giants and the Bears along with Bengals & the Falcons come to mind. Usually there are several teams that the media will select as superbowl favourites and or contenders. These teams quite often may not have even proven themselves yet but that is of no concern to the media. The Miami Dolphins and the Baltimore Ravens come to mind. You will notice that both those teams did not fare well early on in the season. Which means the public likely lost money betting on them. Isn't it interesting that the teams the media fawns over just happen to the teams that the public back early on in the season. The Casinos make a profit because the Dolphins and the Ravens did not start off strong...And isnt it interesting that over the course of the season as the public started to stay away from the Ravens and the Dolphins, they started fairing well....incidentally, the Casinos are still making a profit from those betting public whether they are favourites or dogs....
The idea of course is to implant false perceptions of the teams in the publics mind early on so that down the line the Casinos can make huge profits on games where the public is usually one side because of that teams past performances. Now understand this that in reality...the Bengals, Falcons, Giants, Patriots & Bears are all teams that are trully capable of running the table in the NFL. This is established early on in the season when those teams play to their true potential. Those teams then take dives for a certain amount of time during the season....only to turn it on again when the public has grown fed up of them....
THE CASINOS DONT MIND WHEN THIS HAPPENS BECAUSE THEN THOSE TEAMS CAN BE ALLOWED TO PLAY TO THEIR TRUE POTENTIAL BECAUSE THE HOUSE WILL NOT TAKE A TREMENDOUS HIT...BECAUSE THE PERCENTAGE OF ACTION THE TEAM RECEIVES WILL BE FAR LOWER THAN IT WAS PRIOR TO THEIR "LOOSING" STREAK...
We are now at a point in the season when teams like the Bengals & the Falcons as well as the Giants whom the world had left for dead, are now going to "turn it on" again. This is happening beause the public is fed up and the amount of money the House stands to loose if these teams cover as dogs or favourites is not substantial. Now it is true the Falcons will get a higher percentage of action against the Skins but so did the Bengals against the Browns who did not cover last week...Those of you who follow my formula may have been suprised by that game. Now you may understand why that game turned out the way it did.
IF YOU ARE GOING TO TAKE A DOG BECAUSE YOU THINK THE GAME MIGHT BE RIGGED...MAKE SURE THAT FAVOURITE HAS COVERED THEIR LAST GAME AS A FAVOURITE...BECAUSE TIMING IS EVERYTHING...IF YOU ARE GOING TO TAKE A FAVOURITE MAKE SURE THAT DOG HAS COVERED AS A DOG IN THEIR LAST GAME AS A DOG BECAUSE TIMING IS EVERYTHING...
This is the kind of Pattern you must pay attention to...in association with the fixed element. Can the Casinos afford to have New England and Chicago cover today? As well as Indianapolis, Dallas & Miami who are receiving some of the highest percentages today...????????????????????????
It had been weeks since the Bengals covered as favourites so it was not suprising to see them cover in that spot. It had been weeks since they covered as dogs so it was not suprisig to see them do so against the Saints...The Atlanta Falcons & the New York Giants are following an identical pattern...in that it has been weeks since they covered as favourites or dogs....it will change today...as the percentages as well as public opinion on these teams has dropped significantly...
Again Timing is everything....Dogs will cover in consecutive weeks because the percentages are so lop sided in their respective games that the House cannot afford to let the favourites cover. This is why Tennessee....has covered as a dog the last 3 straight weeks...San Francisco the last 4 straight weeks...WHY? Because in those games, they are usually receiving the lowest percentage of action compared to the teams they are facing....
Now you will notice for the past 4 weeks including this week, Tennessee has been facing teams that received a much higher percentage...and naturally the Casinos profited from this action because not one of the teams they faced covered...How convienient for them...but remember when I said to PAY ATTENTION TO WHO THEY PLAY THE NEXT WEEK...
Tennessee at Houston - Week 14
Imagine what the percentages will be like in that game...Obviously a lot more even than they would be in the Indy/Tenn match up today wouldnt it? And if Houston were to loose to Oakland, How many people would really be interested in taking them next week vs the Tennesses Titans who beat the NY Giants by scoring 21 pointsi n 9 minutes...? Not Many....Wonder what the House thinks about this?
We know about how perception can be molded. How virtually false ideas about teams can be implanted in the mind of the bettor by way of rigged matchups designed to bolster confidence in one team and hinder confidence in another...The Giants and the Dallas Cowboys come to mind....With all that I have said thus far in this post and my previous ones..I am not going to give you a lengthy write up about this one...as time does not permit it....but before wagering on this game...consider the following....PERCEPTION is playing a major role in this one....allow me to explain...
Giants are dogs at +3.5.....Ironic that the movie De ja Vu is in theatres because thats what im getting when looking at this line...
N.Y. Giants 36, Dallas 22 (-3.5) - Week 7
Since that game....The Giants have sinced gone on a "loosing streak" and depending on your point of view...they simply dont have it anymore...Dallas has gone in the opposite direction under the leadership of upstart Tony Romo...and seemingly has it all figured out...
But do they really...? They beat the Tampa Bay Bucs but so did the Giants back in Week 8. They beat the Arizona Cardinals...whom are irrelevant. And they beat the Indianapolis Colts whos coach refused to challenge a touchdown that should not have been allowed....This Dallas team who could not beat a mediocre Skins team on the road in Week 9 and failed to beat the Giants in Week 7 at home favoured by 3.5 points are now favoured on the road against a Giants team who...
Lost at Home to Chicago
Lost on the Road to Tennessee
Lost on the Road to the Jags
Dallas has covered their last 2 games as a favourite...while the Giants have not covered...as a dog or a favourite in weeks....You see where I am going with this?
I am not going to give lengthy write ups for this weeks selections as I feel my analysis thus far in regards to recent trends and what not should suffice...The selections are based upon the premise I started out with...And with that....
St Louis Rams (- 6.5)
Atlanta Falcons (+2)
Detroit Lions (+13.5)
Oakland Raiders (-3)
New York Giants (+3.5)
Recap of the Past 4 Weeks
It is weeks like this one that remind me of how difficult it can be to cap games in the NFL. Trust your gut and your instinct and dont follow the heard. The percentages will show and prove as was the case last week in one of the most blatant examples of Game Rigging the NFL has ever seen. It should be noted that the premise on which I base my selections is just that....The Fix is Indeed IN....It is not the other way around....I do not have time to elaborate on the hows and the whys. If you follow the information I have provided in my previous posts in regards to the this subject and you study the games in depth. (Please review the Tenn/Giants game of Week 12...it is essential viewing), you will understand how such an accusation can be made by this author and likely will proceed to proclaim the same....
Two of the most intriguing teams that have consistently been on my radar these past few weeks have been the Falcons...& The Bengals. If you study carefully you will realize they are both one and the same....
At the beginning of every year, the NFL has a pre determined group of public teams that will usually receive 65 percent of the action on MOST games they play except when they play teams as public as themselves....Then the percentages even out.....This year these teams would include.....
GIANTS
FALCONS
BENGALS
STEELERS
COLTS
CHARGERS
PANTHERS
SEAHAWKS
BEARS
PATRIOTS
Think long and hard about what that means to the Casinos...Ask yourselves this question...Can the Casinos afford to have these teams kinds of teams cover week in and week out if the majority of the public is on them? The answer is of course no....The Casinos understand this all too well and the Syndicate will make sure the Casinos dont have to deal with the reality of such a disaster occuring.
If you study carefully, you will realize that each of those teams listed seem to follow a formula. A pattern if you will, that they all seem to go through at varying times during the season. They will loose and or not cover to the same kinds of teams, they will win and cover to the same kind of teams. You will notice that those public teams tend to win and cover when the majority of the betting public, square & sharp have become completely fed up over them...Incidentally, the House usually does not loose money on these teams when they cover in this situation. Why is it that the Casinos seem to always be on the right side when these teams dont cover and the right side when they do...?
Study their games in depth. Much of the games these teams play will resemble one another in the sense that the percentages will so often be balanced when they cover as favourites...and unbalanced when they fail to cover as favourites....And all of it is directly tied to the fact that the Casinos some how manage week in and week out to end up on the most profitable side of the percentages on most of the games....The odds of this occuring at the rate it does is extremely unlikely...if we are dealing with a league that is actually based on real and equal competition...However if the games were how should we say, tailored to fit a certain result, we can then begin to explain the uncanny ability of the House to always end up on the right side of the percentage...
You see at the beginning of the season there are always a few teams that seem to establish themselves early by winning several games in succession or winning them in dominant fashion. The Giants and the Bears along with Bengals & the Falcons come to mind. Usually there are several teams that the media will select as superbowl favourites and or contenders. These teams quite often may not have even proven themselves yet but that is of no concern to the media. The Miami Dolphins and the Baltimore Ravens come to mind. You will notice that both those teams did not fare well early on in the season. Which means the public likely lost money betting on them. Isn't it interesting that the teams the media fawns over just happen to the teams that the public back early on in the season. The Casinos make a profit because the Dolphins and the Ravens did not start off strong...And isnt it interesting that over the course of the season as the public started to stay away from the Ravens and the Dolphins, they started fairing well....incidentally, the Casinos are still making a profit from those betting public whether they are favourites or dogs....
The idea of course is to implant false perceptions of the teams in the publics mind early on so that down the line the Casinos can make huge profits on games where the public is usually one side because of that teams past performances. Now understand this that in reality...the Bengals, Falcons, Giants, Patriots & Bears are all teams that are trully capable of running the table in the NFL. This is established early on in the season when those teams play to their true potential. Those teams then take dives for a certain amount of time during the season....only to turn it on again when the public has grown fed up of them....
THE CASINOS DONT MIND WHEN THIS HAPPENS BECAUSE THEN THOSE TEAMS CAN BE ALLOWED TO PLAY TO THEIR TRUE POTENTIAL BECAUSE THE HOUSE WILL NOT TAKE A TREMENDOUS HIT...BECAUSE THE PERCENTAGE OF ACTION THE TEAM RECEIVES WILL BE FAR LOWER THAN IT WAS PRIOR TO THEIR "LOOSING" STREAK...
We are now at a point in the season when teams like the Bengals & the Falcons as well as the Giants whom the world had left for dead, are now going to "turn it on" again. This is happening beause the public is fed up and the amount of money the House stands to loose if these teams cover as dogs or favourites is not substantial. Now it is true the Falcons will get a higher percentage of action against the Skins but so did the Bengals against the Browns who did not cover last week...Those of you who follow my formula may have been suprised by that game. Now you may understand why that game turned out the way it did.
IF YOU ARE GOING TO TAKE A DOG BECAUSE YOU THINK THE GAME MIGHT BE RIGGED...MAKE SURE THAT FAVOURITE HAS COVERED THEIR LAST GAME AS A FAVOURITE...BECAUSE TIMING IS EVERYTHING...IF YOU ARE GOING TO TAKE A FAVOURITE MAKE SURE THAT DOG HAS COVERED AS A DOG IN THEIR LAST GAME AS A DOG BECAUSE TIMING IS EVERYTHING...
This is the kind of Pattern you must pay attention to...in association with the fixed element. Can the Casinos afford to have New England and Chicago cover today? As well as Indianapolis, Dallas & Miami who are receiving some of the highest percentages today...????????????????????????
It had been weeks since the Bengals covered as favourites so it was not suprising to see them cover in that spot. It had been weeks since they covered as dogs so it was not suprisig to see them do so against the Saints...The Atlanta Falcons & the New York Giants are following an identical pattern...in that it has been weeks since they covered as favourites or dogs....it will change today...as the percentages as well as public opinion on these teams has dropped significantly...
Again Timing is everything....Dogs will cover in consecutive weeks because the percentages are so lop sided in their respective games that the House cannot afford to let the favourites cover. This is why Tennessee....has covered as a dog the last 3 straight weeks...San Francisco the last 4 straight weeks...WHY? Because in those games, they are usually receiving the lowest percentage of action compared to the teams they are facing....
Now you will notice for the past 4 weeks including this week, Tennessee has been facing teams that received a much higher percentage...and naturally the Casinos profited from this action because not one of the teams they faced covered...How convienient for them...but remember when I said to PAY ATTENTION TO WHO THEY PLAY THE NEXT WEEK...
Tennessee at Houston - Week 14
Imagine what the percentages will be like in that game...Obviously a lot more even than they would be in the Indy/Tenn match up today wouldnt it? And if Houston were to loose to Oakland, How many people would really be interested in taking them next week vs the Tennesses Titans who beat the NY Giants by scoring 21 pointsi n 9 minutes...? Not Many....Wonder what the House thinks about this?
We know about how perception can be molded. How virtually false ideas about teams can be implanted in the mind of the bettor by way of rigged matchups designed to bolster confidence in one team and hinder confidence in another...The Giants and the Dallas Cowboys come to mind....With all that I have said thus far in this post and my previous ones..I am not going to give you a lengthy write up about this one...as time does not permit it....but before wagering on this game...consider the following....PERCEPTION is playing a major role in this one....allow me to explain...
Giants are dogs at +3.5.....Ironic that the movie De ja Vu is in theatres because thats what im getting when looking at this line...
N.Y. Giants 36, Dallas 22 (-3.5) - Week 7
Since that game....The Giants have sinced gone on a "loosing streak" and depending on your point of view...they simply dont have it anymore...Dallas has gone in the opposite direction under the leadership of upstart Tony Romo...and seemingly has it all figured out...
But do they really...? They beat the Tampa Bay Bucs but so did the Giants back in Week 8. They beat the Arizona Cardinals...whom are irrelevant. And they beat the Indianapolis Colts whos coach refused to challenge a touchdown that should not have been allowed....This Dallas team who could not beat a mediocre Skins team on the road in Week 9 and failed to beat the Giants in Week 7 at home favoured by 3.5 points are now favoured on the road against a Giants team who...
Lost at Home to Chicago
Lost on the Road to Tennessee
Lost on the Road to the Jags
Dallas has covered their last 2 games as a favourite...while the Giants have not covered...as a dog or a favourite in weeks....You see where I am going with this?
I am not going to give lengthy write ups for this weeks selections as I feel my analysis thus far in regards to recent trends and what not should suffice...The selections are based upon the premise I started out with...And with that....
St Louis Rams (- 6.5)
Atlanta Falcons (+2)
Detroit Lions (+13.5)
Oakland Raiders (-3)
New York Giants (+3.5)
It is weeks like this one that remind me of how difficult it can be to cap games in the NFL. Trust your gut and your instinct and dont follow the heard. The percentages will show and prove as was the case last week in one of the most blatant examples of Game Rigging the NFL has ever seen. It should be noted that the premise on which I base my selections is just that....The Fix is Indeed IN....It is not the other way around....I do not have time to elaborate on the hows and the whys. If you follow the information I have provided in my previous posts in regards to the this subject and you study the games in depth. (Please review the Tenn/Giants game of Week 12...it is essential viewing), you will understand how such an accusation can be made by this author and likely will proceed to proclaim the same....
Two of the most intriguing teams that have consistently been on my radar these past few weeks have been the Falcons...& The Bengals. If you study carefully you will realize they are both one and the same....
At the beginning of every year, the NFL has a pre determined group of public teams that will usually receive 65 percent of the action on MOST games they play except when they play teams as public as themselves....Then the percentages even out.....This year these teams would include.....
GIANTS
FALCONS
BENGALS
STEELERS
COLTS
CHARGERS
PANTHERS
SEAHAWKS
BEARS
PATRIOTS
Think long and hard about what that means to the Casinos...Ask yourselves this question...Can the Casinos afford to have these teams kinds of teams cover week in and week out if the majority of the public is on them? The answer is of course no....The Casinos understand this all too well and the Syndicate will make sure the Casinos dont have to deal with the reality of such a disaster occuring.
If you study carefully, you will realize that each of those teams listed seem to follow a formula. A pattern if you will, that they all seem to go through at varying times during the season. They will loose and or not cover to the same kinds of teams, they will win and cover to the same kind of teams. You will notice that those public teams tend to win and cover when the majority of the betting public, square & sharp have become completely fed up over them...Incidentally, the House usually does not loose money on these teams when they cover in this situation. Why is it that the Casinos seem to always be on the right side when these teams dont cover and the right side when they do...?
Study their games in depth. Much of the games these teams play will resemble one another in the sense that the percentages will so often be balanced when they cover as favourites...and unbalanced when they fail to cover as favourites....And all of it is directly tied to the fact that the Casinos some how manage week in and week out to end up on the most profitable side of the percentages on most of the games....The odds of this occuring at the rate it does is extremely unlikely...if we are dealing with a league that is actually based on real and equal competition...However if the games were how should we say, tailored to fit a certain result, we can then begin to explain the uncanny ability of the House to always end up on the right side of the percentage...
You see at the beginning of the season there are always a few teams that seem to establish themselves early by winning several games in succession or winning them in dominant fashion. The Giants and the Bears along with Bengals & the Falcons come to mind. Usually there are several teams that the media will select as superbowl favourites and or contenders. These teams quite often may not have even proven themselves yet but that is of no concern to the media. The Miami Dolphins and the Baltimore Ravens come to mind. You will notice that both those teams did not fare well early on in the season. Which means the public likely lost money betting on them. Isn't it interesting that the teams the media fawns over just happen to the teams that the public back early on in the season. The Casinos make a profit because the Dolphins and the Ravens did not start off strong...And isnt it interesting that over the course of the season as the public started to stay away from the Ravens and the Dolphins, they started fairing well....incidentally, the Casinos are still making a profit from those betting public whether they are favourites or dogs....
The idea of course is to implant false perceptions of the teams in the publics mind early on so that down the line the Casinos can make huge profits on games where the public is usually one side because of that teams past performances. Now understand this that in reality...the Bengals, Falcons, Giants, Patriots & Bears are all teams that are trully capable of running the table in the NFL. This is established early on in the season when those teams play to their true potential. Those teams then take dives for a certain amount of time during the season....only to turn it on again when the public has grown fed up of them....
THE CASINOS DONT MIND WHEN THIS HAPPENS BECAUSE THEN THOSE TEAMS CAN BE ALLOWED TO PLAY TO THEIR TRUE POTENTIAL BECAUSE THE HOUSE WILL NOT TAKE A TREMENDOUS HIT...BECAUSE THE PERCENTAGE OF ACTION THE TEAM RECEIVES WILL BE FAR LOWER THAN IT WAS PRIOR TO THEIR "LOOSING" STREAK...
We are now at a point in the season when teams like the Bengals & the Falcons as well as the Giants whom the world had left for dead, are now going to "turn it on" again. This is happening beause the public is fed up and the amount of money the House stands to loose if these teams cover as dogs or favourites is not substantial. Now it is true the Falcons will get a higher percentage of action against the Skins but so did the Bengals against the Browns who did not cover last week...Those of you who follow my formula may have been suprised by that game. Now you may understand why that game turned out the way it did.
IF YOU ARE GOING TO TAKE A DOG BECAUSE YOU THINK THE GAME MIGHT BE RIGGED...MAKE SURE THAT FAVOURITE HAS COVERED THEIR LAST GAME AS A FAVOURITE...BECAUSE TIMING IS EVERYTHING...IF YOU ARE GOING TO TAKE A FAVOURITE MAKE SURE THAT DOG HAS COVERED AS A DOG IN THEIR LAST GAME AS A DOG BECAUSE TIMING IS EVERYTHING...
This is the kind of Pattern you must pay attention to...in association with the fixed element. Can the Casinos afford to have New England and Chicago cover today? As well as Indianapolis, Dallas & Miami who are receiving some of the highest percentages today...????????????????????????
It had been weeks since the Bengals covered as favourites so it was not suprising to see them cover in that spot. It had been weeks since they covered as dogs so it was not suprisig to see them do so against the Saints...The Atlanta Falcons & the New York Giants are following an identical pattern...in that it has been weeks since they covered as favourites or dogs....it will change today...as the percentages as well as public opinion on these teams has dropped significantly...
Again Timing is everything....Dogs will cover in consecutive weeks because the percentages are so lop sided in their respective games that the House cannot afford to let the favourites cover. This is why Tennessee....has covered as a dog the last 3 straight weeks...San Francisco the last 4 straight weeks...WHY? Because in those games, they are usually receiving the lowest percentage of action compared to the teams they are facing....
Now you will notice for the past 4 weeks including this week, Tennessee has been facing teams that received a much higher percentage...and naturally the Casinos profited from this action because not one of the teams they faced covered...How convienient for them...but remember when I said to PAY ATTENTION TO WHO THEY PLAY THE NEXT WEEK...
Tennessee at Houston - Week 14
Imagine what the percentages will be like in that game...Obviously a lot more even than they would be in the Indy/Tenn match up today wouldnt it? And if Houston were to loose to Oakland, How many people would really be interested in taking them next week vs the Tennesses Titans who beat the NY Giants by scoring 21 pointsi n 9 minutes...? Not Many....Wonder what the House thinks about this?
We know about how perception can be molded. How virtually false ideas about teams can be implanted in the mind of the bettor by way of rigged matchups designed to bolster confidence in one team and hinder confidence in another...The Giants and the Dallas Cowboys come to mind....With all that I have said thus far in this post and my previous ones..I am not going to give you a lengthy write up about this one...as time does not permit it....but before wagering on this game...consider the following....PERCEPTION is playing a major role in this one....allow me to explain...
Giants are dogs at +3.5.....Ironic that the movie De ja Vu is in theatres because thats what im getting when looking at this line...
N.Y. Giants 36, Dallas 22 (-3.5) - Week 7
Since that game....The Giants have sinced gone on a "loosing streak" and depending on your point of view...they simply dont have it anymore...Dallas has gone in the opposite direction under the leadership of upstart Tony Romo...and seemingly has it all figured out...
But do they really...? They beat the Tampa Bay Bucs but so did the Giants back in Week 8. They beat the Arizona Cardinals...whom are irrelevant. And they beat the Indianapolis Colts whos coach refused to challenge a touchdown that should not have been allowed....This Dallas team who could not beat a mediocre Skins team on the road in Week 9 and failed to beat the Giants in Week 7 at home favoured by 3.5 points are now favoured on the road against a Giants team who...
Lost at Home to Chicago
Lost on the Road to Tennessee
Lost on the Road to the Jags
Dallas has covered their last 2 games as a favourite...while the Giants have not covered...as a dog or a favourite in weeks....You see where I am going with this?
I am not going to give lengthy write ups for this weeks selections as I feel my analysis thus far in regards to recent trends and what not should suffice...The selections are based upon the premise I started out with...And with that....
St Louis Rams (- 6.5)
Atlanta Falcons (+2)
Detroit Lions (+13.5)
Oakland Raiders (-3)
New York Giants (+3.5)
