Vikings got everybody's money today. Knocked out of the Playoffs on the last play of the season in Arizona 2 years ago. Also 22-0 system on them [sub 500Home favorite vs opponent off a win] and Zona 8-25 ATS last 33 Road. Vikings sure got their 'Revenge' today. Early Christmas for the bookies courtesy of these dirtbags fucking everyone in the process. Some games there's only one side. Those are often the ones that turn out to be the worst.
BET SOME MORE said:
That game seemed to have burned a few people today. I apologize if you used my strategy in selecting them. As I have said in the past, there are times when games that fall in the category of the sucker bet that Don has taught us about...will not pan out the way we expect. Sometimes the team who receives the Lop Sided Action does cover and this likely happens when the team has fallen off the radar. What I mean by that is that the game is not talked about by the media. Nor is it really a popular game among the sharps or the public because by that point, the betting public is fed up of that team. This kind of game features a team that likely looks as if they are "due" for a cover.
When you see a game where the percentages are completely out of whack and favoured toward one side...and the House would stand to make a killing if that team did not cover....you have to consider several things..
1) Timing - Whens the last time that team covered as a favourite? Chances are if it has been several weeks, it likely means they cover this time.
Last Time Cincinnati covered as a favourite was
Carolina 14 @ Cincinnati 17(-3) - Push - Week 7
Cincinnati 34 @ Cleveland 17 - Week 2
You will often find that the public teams go several weeks without covering...Sometimes 2 or 3 weeks go by when teams wont cover. This is long enough time...for the public to get so fed up to a point where the House can afford...it. The House cannot have popular public teams cover week in and week out.
Indy hasnt covered in 2 straight games...So this weekend I had them -11 but there is a possibility they might not cover...because obviously they are heavily favoured and the House looses if they do indeed cover. But its a been a few weeks. The House made a killing in the Buffalo & Dallas games...so now they are on a Primetime game and they can afford to let a public team cover. You will notice that the public/popular teams that were coming in off games where they covered or performed well did not fair well today.
Timing is everthing...
Had Indy been coming off say 1 or 2 straight games where they covered...they would never have covered tonight against Philly...Where as a team like the Giants who excelled early to mid season has now lost three in a row....they have not covered as a favourite since Tampa in Week 8. I am not suprised they lost today because their percentages were way too lop sided. Everyone expected them to cover this week because the price was cheap and they are a better team than Tennessee but the timing wasn't right. 24 Points in one quarter? I dont believe for a second that was simply the brilliance of Vince Young or the incompetance of the Giants defense...giants put 21 up and then shut it down.....It was too obvious....Next week they wont receive those kinds of percentages....their playing the darling of the nfc in the Dallas Cowboys....publics on Dallas, theyve lost 3 in a row....hmmm?
The Timing is great for a cover...but its too early to be certain...and i hate popular dogs...as they dont often cover...if the Giants were favoured on a key number like 3....this would be interesting...
WELL DALLAS IS -3.5 QUICKLY WENT TO -4 STILL 79% THIS IS ONE TO WATCH..YOU PRESENT SEVERAL INTERESTING ANGLES I USUALLY OVERLOOK. LET ME HERE YOUR TAKES ON SOME OTHER GAMES THIS WEEK PLEASE.. THANKS CINCY MY HAVE BURNED ME BUT I CLEANED IT UP WITH BUFFALO AND WASHINGTON THANKS TO LOOKING AT IT WITH SOME OF YOUR ANGLES.. THESE OTHER IDIOTS IN THIS THREAD ARE LIVING A FANTASY WORLD IF THEY DONT THINK THE NFL IS FIXED. DONT LET EM GOT TO YOU AS LONG AS YOU KNOW THE TRUTH F-EVERYBODY ELSE..
N ational F ixed L eague
N ational F ixed L eague
Lapdance Jockey said:
When Week 12 began, many of the sportsbooks had the Bears receiving a higher percentage on both the Spread and the Money Line. I do not always suscribe to sportsbook percentages as I believe they are not always accurate. This is why you should make your own lines...and percentages...and then compare...
Two teams coming off wins & covers like NE & Chicago should both garner high percentages...I expected something like 40/60 in favour of NE. Those are the kinds of percentages you want to see when selecting a favourite.....The opening percentages exceeded my expectations as Chicago was getting as high as 65 percent of the action and NE was getting around 35....As the week progressed, it reversed...and the line went up....And its common knowledge around here that anytime a line moves off a key number like (3), watch out.....
The line was correct...NE should have been a favourite of 3 and no more....They collected a sizable amount of action on Chicago earlier in the week when they were receiving a higher percentage on the Spread and the ML. Then they got greedy and moved off the 3 to 4. By this time the percentages had reversed and they started getting upwards of 65 percent of the juice on NE...Thats the kind of action you dont want a favourite getting if you are considering them...then they moved it off the 4....So now the line is NE -4.5 by gametime as some books....
4.5? Come on..Now their selling Santa Claus...because they're asking you to believe that Chicago is going to miss field goals, turn the ball over needlessly (Grossman took care of that ) and or New England to beat the Chicago Defense by a touchdown or two field goals...Im not buying it...
Isn't interesting that when New England was getting a lower percentage of action during the week even though they were favoured, the line was fair and just at (-3), which end up being the number they covered. But when the line moved to 4.5, and they were getting a higher percentage of action..it end up being the number that did not cover...
So the House ends up getting all the money that was wagered on Chicago +3 earlier in the week and also all the money that wagered on New England -4.5 right before kick off. So the favourite won...but the House probably ended up making more money off the early action and the late action...these Vegas guys are slick.....
So the House ends up getting all the money that was wagered on Chicago +3 earlier in the week and also all the money that wagered on New England -4.5 right before kick off. So the favourite won...but the House probably ended up making more money off the early action and the late action...these Vegas guys are slick.....
The " house " and sportsbooks did a great job of fixing the Green Bay v Seattle game didnt they? The game landed on 10, the number at which it closed at most sportsbooks.
Im sure they all got together and said which number will screw us the most if it lands? Is it 10? OK, lets fix this game so it lands on 10 and it tears us all a new arse.
Wheres your conspiracy theory on this game? Let me guess, the sportsbooks conspired to purposely get screwed so as to keep the unsuspecting public from finding out that every game is rigged.
Im sure they all got together and said which number will screw us the most if it lands? Is it 10? OK, lets fix this game so it lands on 10 and it tears us all a new arse.
Wheres your conspiracy theory on this game? Let me guess, the sportsbooks conspired to purposely get screwed so as to keep the unsuspecting public from finding out that every game is rigged.
Ive read a lot of this thread, and all I can see is that it has given some betting losers hope that their bad judgement wasnt the fault for them losing their money, and that it was/is a conspiracy. All were getting now are sob stories whenever a team they play loses and how they were robbed by the evil sportsbooks.
Lets see if anyone cries fix about the books being middled and screwed on the MNF game.
Lets see if anyone cries fix about the books being middled and screwed on the MNF game.
I guess you just dont get it the books didnt fix the game last night the BOYS fixed the game to hit on 10 and clean house why do you think the books took it off the board because the Boys figured another way to beat them when the technique they used varied from before by coming from differene avenues so as to cammulflage the bet!!syddiggers said:
mj 23 said:
Question 1?
Which books took this game off the board?
Question 2?
How did the 'BOYS' fix the game so it would land on 10?
("because they did" is not a legit answer. Show me proof that the 'BOYS" fixed the game to land on 10, or at the very least explain to me without the Oliver Stone conspiracy angles, how the BOYS fixed the game to land on 10.?)
mj 23 said:
1)How do you know that 7 books took the game off, if you don't know the names. Are you going on hear-say?
2) Yes, there was about 6 minutes left when Favre got picked, 'Hawks were up by 10. (34-24)
'Hawks go into ball control mode, why should they go air-mail, they have the lead and the clock.
Three gives to Alexander to milk the clock, (I call that clock management, nothing funny there).
'Hawks punt to the 30 or so.
About 4 minutes on the clock or so, I think Favre hit Jennings twice for short gains, and went for a bomb on third down, got picked again for like the millionth time in his career, nothing fishy there.
'Hawks get the ball again, and again go into ball control, clock management mode, (I think there was 3 and change on the clock) give to Alexander twice, and then to the otehr back on third down.
Fourth down punt again.
Favre and the Pack get the ball back at their 10 or so, Favre drives them to midfield all by air, runs out of clock, game over.
Where's the fix?
mj 23 said:
The first 5 or 6 passes were short sideline passes designed to get some breathing room, which happened.
Once Favre had operating room he went for the homerun ball 3 or 4 times.
I see absolutely nothing fishy on that last drive.
1) You had Seattle - 10 1/2 and you are bitter
or
2) You are an Oliver Stone conspiracist who really needs to give up betting on sporting events.
Who fixed that game then?
Favre? (highly doubt that)
Officials? There were blatant line movement penalties that were legit, but that's it. (I can't see them in on it)
Coach 'Mac? (there is no way he's in on the fix)
Dude, your'e trying to make something from nothing.
When you are down by 10 do you care about breathing room? He threw the ball up when he wanted to but he didnt throw it up when he was supposed to and oh by the way i picked up about 6 dimes on this game and most of it with about 4 minutes to go!! Also Favre has a bad history of doing this type of thing i can think of many of games that he was involved with that strange things happened.billhill999 said:
