These games are fixed...& I'll tell you why..

[Boxslayer]

If Im on ignore, how do you know Im asking questions. uppy:

Youre also responding to those questions indirectly in your write ups. Explaining how the misconception is that it has to be a dog that covers, etc.

Youre guiding rookies to the wrong place.

I respond to this thread because I like the rubber room, and you are cloggin up my porn and feces posts with this bullshit. If this post held any merit it would be in the offshore forum.

Ive asked a simple question, and you refuse to answer because it blows up your theory. If you can give me a good explanation for that, I'm all ears for the rest of your theories.

 

[royboy_3831]

Hey Girlyman, (Boxslayer) Post your plays every Sunday, until the end of the season. I WOULD BET ANYTHING, Lorens record on his games would be better than yours. PUT UP OR SHUT THE HELL UP.

Box post his plays and great writeups every week you fucking dumbass. :youmad: Gawd you guys are pathetic. At least this shit is in the rubber room where it belongs.

 

[quantumleap]

As for the doubters...As I have said from the beginning of this thread...Feel free to disagree and look elsewhere ....this is not the place for you as we are most definitely through the looking glass here...

If the information is that disturbing to the reader, there is always the ignore button....but I suspect that EGO...will not allow some of the skeptics to utilize that function...I suspect the fact that this thread has awakened quite a few people and aroused suspicions in many others while garnering over 5000 views has gotten to quite a few of the skeptics....Why else would such people continue to show up in a thread they have no interest in? And if I do not respond to somebodies question it is likely because...they have been on ignore from the inception of this very thread...

Week 14 is on the way.....

But this IS the place for people who disagree. Just because someone disagrees with you doesn't mean they shouldn't bring up what they feel is a valid point. This is the place for discussion of ideas, not just a diatribe by one person who doesn't answer valid concerns that don't agree with your viewpoint.

I'm not a skeptic or a doubter, but I have unanswered questions. Just because someone is bringing up a position that is contrary to yours doesn't mean they are disturbed by your message either. They are trying to resolve what they feel are inconsistencies from your message.

Can you answer the question of how games were fixed last year yet the public won quite a bit? I want to bring up the possibility of fixed games to other people yet I don't know how to answer them if they were to ask me this.

 

[Boxslayer]

But this IS the place for people who disagree. Just because someone disagrees with you doesn't mean they shouldn't bring up what they feel is a valid point. This is the place for discussion of ideas, not just a diatribe by one person who doesn't answer valid concerns that don't agree with your viewpoint.

I'm not a skeptic or a doubter, but I have unanswered questions. Just because someone is bringing up a position that is contrary to yours doesn't mean they are disturbed by your message either. They are trying to resolve what they feel are inconsistencies from your message.

Can you answer the question of how games were fixed last year yet the public won quite a bit? I want to bring up the possibility of fixed games to other people yet I don't know how to answer them if they were to ask me this.

You were much better at asking that than I was. :lol:

 

[Loren78]

But this IS the place for people who disagree. Just because someone disagrees with you doesn't mean they shouldn't bring up what they feel is a valid point. This is the place for discussion of ideas, not just a diatribe by one person who doesn't answer valid concerns that don't agree with your viewpoint.

I'm not a skeptic or a doubter, but I have unanswered questions. Just because someone is bringing up a position that is contrary to yours doesn't mean they are disturbed by your message either. They are trying to resolve what they feel are inconsistencies from your message.

Can you answer the question of how games were fixed last year yet the public won quite a bit? I want to bring up the possibility of fixed games to other people yet I don't know how to answer them if they were to ask me this.

A few of the naysayers are not bringing up valid points, they are insulting other posters who have come into the thread and gotten something from it. You see, their egos are doing the talking. They are not interested in the truth, they are only concerned about perserving their own belief systems....and in order to to do this, they must not only drown out the original message of this thread, they must belittle all the others who may also echo the same sentiments...This is why these kinds of skeptics remain in this thread and it is the reason they will continue to be ignored...

From the threads inception, it was suggested by some, that favourites covering last year nulified my entire argument. I said from the beginning that this is not only about DOGS covering...that FAVOURITES WOULD COVER when the percentages evened out....

Apparently they are some out there who believe that a favourite always receives Lop sided amounts of action....and to those who believe such a thing....that is fine...ignore my thread and exit immediately as this thread is no longer of use to you....

It was never announced by me that DOGS COVER ALL THE TIME AND THEREFORE THE LEAGUE IS FIXED... but you see...the straw man argument is used quite often in cases like this...again, go back and re-read those posts in this thread in their entirety....it has all been explained before....

Is it possible for someone to obtain the spread lines, and the percentages of action put down on every game last year...Would it also be possible to somehow remember what the perceptions of those teams were last year compared to what they are this year? Well we know that the Steelers, Giants, & Bengals were not receiving the kinds of percentages they are receiving this year...The spread lines on opening day 2005, will show you that, which means at that time, the perceptions of those teams was not that much more favourable than their opponents. Would the Giants only be favoured by a field goal over the Cardinals this year? Not bloody likely...So obviously the percentage they receive last year opening day against the Cardinals would have been a lot less LOP-SIDED than it would have been this year...

I keep Proline sheets from years past and so I have spread lines that may be off a point give or take...compared to the Vegas lines....and we also have at our disposal....courtesy of ESPN....the results of every week of the NFL season from 2005.....I do not have the time to go through every week...so lets take a look at week 1.....

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/schedule?year=2005

Tampa Bay 24, Minnesota 13(-6.5)

Miami 34, Denver 10(-5.5)

(-7.5)Pittsburgh 34, Tennessee 7

(6.5)Washington 9, Chicago 7

New Orleans 23, Carolina 20(7.5)

(-3.5)Jacksonville 26, Seattle 14

(-6.5)Buffalo 22, Houston 7

(-4.5)Cincinnati 27, Cleveland 13

(-2.5)Kansas City 27, NY Jets 7

(-2.5)Detroit 17, Green Bay 3

Dallas 28, San Diego 24 (5.5)

San Francisco 28, St. Louis 25(-7.5)

(-2.5)NY Giants 42, Arizona 19

(-3.5)Indianapolis 24, Baltimore 7

Atlanta 14, Philadelphia 10 (-2.5)

Seven out of Sixteen favourits covered in Week 1...Six out of Sixteen of those games featured teams favoured by 4 or less....this is the kind of spread you would expect to find....in EVEN KEEL PERCENTAGE games. Where the amount of action coming down is going to be substantial on both teams...As I have said time and time again, favourites tend to cover these kinds of games....and sometimes favourites will cover large spreads...and there are reasons for that...

 

[syddiggers]

LOREN ingnore the doubters. let them keep losing there cash. I've said it before and I'll say it again "people who don't think the NFL is rigged are living in a fantasy world!" keep doing what you do looking forward to all this weeks picks. Nobody can predict all games however I bet you could come even closer if yuo knew exact money amounts on spreads and sides. It dont take a genious to realize the house will come out on top ALMOST always. Except when there setting up the gambler for an even bigger hit down the road. I knew philly would cover last night again thanks to some of your previous points. It is noteworthy that the house is not only hitting before the game as well as getting countless suckers on halftime line. When good teams are behind or barely covering idiots adding more to there original wager thinking that they will cover the original spread when smart persons know it's not gonna happen. Thanks again for your insight. FADE THE DOUBTERS THERE POST ARE MEANINGLESS~

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RX Senior



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Anybody Wanna Gift A Losing Gambler Some $4
<HR style="COLOR: #fdde82" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->DOWN TO MUCH TO COUNT WANNA QUIT GAMBLING SO BAD IF I COULD ONLY HAVE BACK THE $7 G I'VE LOST ID NEVER GAMBLE AGAIN :nohead: :nohead: :nohead: :nohead: :nohead: LIFE BLOWS ANYBODY GOT ANY EXTRA WINNINGS THEY WANNA SHARE:think2: TO HELP GET A LOSER OUT OF DEBT
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Should we ignore this thread you posted in another area of the Rubber Room as well as? It really sounds like you have a great handle on Loren's theory. Not a very good advertisement for what Loren is saying if you have to make posts begging any winners to spare some cash and send it your way.

:nopityA: :WTF:

 

[syddiggers]

Seven out of Sixteen favourits covered in Week 1...Six out of Sixteen of those games featured teams favoured by 4 or less....this is the kind of spread you would expect to find....in EVEN KEEL PERCENTAGE games. Where the amount of action coming down is going to be substantial on both teams...As I have said time and time again, favourites tend to cover these kinds of games....and sometimes favourites will cover large spreads...and there are reasons for that...



Using the spread from the first week of a season in any sport is flawed logic on your part. The lines are not fully based on factors relevant to that particular season. A lot of what goes into making the Week 1 ( 2, 3 and 4 ) spread for that matter has come from the previous years performances of each team, and since that season ended there have been large, and key personnel changes, and meaningless preseason games also, so its therefore irrelevant.

But by all means, im looking forward to hearing you manipulate ( or ignore )more evidence that goes against your theory. All you are doing here is giving yourself and other desperates a reason for justifying and not taking responsibility for any losses that they incur.

By the way, I love your insistence on EGO playing a part in why people have the audacity to question or disagree with you. Have a look at the sheer number and arrogance of your postings here and ask yourself who is stroking their ego. This is an open forum, and you asking or expecting people to disappear if they disagree with you is the ultimate sign of ego. It smacks of " I am right and if you dont think so then you are wrong, so leave ". Hows that for ego?

 

[Boxslayer]

Ego on a message board is probably the last thing to be concerned about. You really need to lighten up if you think that is the case.

I dont know what others have stated, but you seem to think people dont understand the concept that dogs can have heavy public action. If the public sees Bengals +7.5 vs. the Ravens, they will be on the Bengals. We understand that. You arent talking to 5 year olds.

You take so much time to try to help and convince people of certain things, but you wont take 5 minutes to explain HOW you think it is all done. Thats very shady to me.

It was VERY well-documented that last year the books took a hit. VERY. Yes, not just on public favorites, but on public dogs. This message board has been around for a long time, and most of us have been active members on this forum. We have discussed public dogs, public favorites and the side where the heavy action is on winning or losing for a few years now. What you are bringing up isnt a new school of thought. There was post after post after post after thread after thread last year about that the books were taking a hit because the public was winning on this games where the action was onesided. Those discussions were just as detailed as they are now. People on this forum can recite games off the top of their head where public action won. There were articles discussing it that can probably be googled. The public winning last year was very well-documented. It happened. Just because you cant remember that far back didnt mean it didnt happen.

So the playing dumb excuse as to you cant remember doesnt really cut it if you want people to believe in what yoiu are selling. And you obviously care if we buy it, you came to this board specifically to plant these thoughts in readers heads. Every post you have made has been on this subject, in this thread. You have taken time after time to make long, detailed explained posts, bolding words of importance.

You have the gullible sheep that will believe anything as long as it makes a little bit of sense, and that is what you are getting. You then have a few more educated people, that see major flaws in what you are saying, and we are on a discussion forum. If you bring up a mass conspiracy of this magnitude, you will get guys like BetSomeMore to jump through hoops believing every word you say just because a few games are hitting coincidentally, but others would like more information.

Im very open minded. But you have done nothing to show me yet something that I can say is concrete.

Your theory, your system is what Id say is parallel to human motivation in sports. That is why your games coincidentally hit at 60-70%.

Motivation is the greatest factor in capping games. The players watch ESPN just like everyone else. They hear what ESPN says. That they are bums that they suck etc, and they want to prove them wrong. And they hear when they are all-world, and they can do no wrong.

I can go on forever. But Ill stop here, and try to learn more about your theory. But I would like an explanation better for last years house struggles better than "i forgot what happened last year"

 

[billhill999]

Amazing I will not be surprised to see NY win SU

How'd that work out for you ?

 

[quantumleap]

A few of the naysayers are not bringing up valid points, they are insulting other posters who have come into the thread and gotten something from it. You see, their egos are doing the talking. They are not interested in the truth, they are only concerned about perserving their own belief systems....and in order to to do this, they must not only drown out the original message of this thread, they must belittle all the others who may also echo the same sentiments...This is why these kinds of skeptics remain in this thread and it is the reason they will continue to be ignored...

From the threads inception, it was suggested by some, that favourites covering last year nulified my entire argument. I said from the beginning that this is not only about DOGS covering...that FAVOURITES WOULD COVER when the percentages evened out....

Apparently they are some out there who believe that a favourite always receives Lop sided amounts of action....and to those who believe such a thing....that is fine...ignore my thread and exit immediately as this thread is no longer of use to you....

It was never announced by me that DOGS COVER ALL THE TIME AND THEREFORE THE LEAGUE IS FIXED... but you see...the straw man argument is used quite often in cases like this...again, go back and re-read those posts in this thread in their entirety....it has all been explained before....

Is it possible for someone to obtain the spread lines, and the percentages of action put down on every game last year...Would it also be possible to somehow remember what the perceptions of those teams were last year compared to what they are this year? Well we know that the Steelers, Giants, & Bengals were not receiving the kinds of percentages they are receiving this year...The spread lines on opening day 2005, will show you that, which means at that time, the perceptions of those teams was not that much more favourable than their opponents. Would the Giants only be favoured by a field goal over the Cardinals this year? Not bloody likely...So obviously the percentage they receive last year opening day against the Cardinals would have been a lot less LOP-SIDED than it would have been this year...

I keep Proline sheets from years past and so I have spread lines that may be off a point give or take...compared to the Vegas lines....and we also have at our disposal....courtesy of ESPN....the results of every week of the NFL season from 2005.....I do not have the time to go through every week...so lets take a look at week 1.....



Seven [/b]out of Sixteen favourits covered in Week 1...Six out of Sixteen of those games featured teams favoured by 4 or less....this is the kind of spread you would expect to find....in EVEN KEEL PERCENTAGE games. Where the amount of action coming down is going to be substantial on both teams...As I have said time and time again, favourites tend to cover these kinds of games....and sometimes favourites will cover large spreads...and there are reasons for that...

Loren:

Thanks for your helpful reply.

 

[quantumleap]

Ego on a message board is probably the last thing to be concerned about. You really need to lighten up if you think that is the case.

I dont know what others have stated, but you seem to think people dont understand the concept that dogs can have heavy public action. If the public sees Bengals +7.5 vs. the Ravens, they will be on the Bengals. We understand that. You arent talking to 5 year olds.

You take so much time to try to help and convince people of certain things, but you wont take 5 minutes to explain HOW you think it is all done. Thats very shady to me.

It was VERY well-documented that last year the books took a hit. VERY. Yes, not just on public favorites, but on public dogs. This message board has been around for a long time, and most of us have been active members on this forum. We have discussed public dogs, public favorites and the side where the heavy action is on winning or losing for a few years now. What you are bringing up isnt a new school of thought. There was post after post after post after thread after thread last year about that the books were taking a hit because the public was winning on this games where the action was onesided. Those discussions were just as detailed as they are now. People on this forum can recite games off the top of their head where public action won. There were articles discussing it that can probably be googled. The public winning last year was very well-documented. It happened. Just because you cant remember that far back didnt mean it didnt happen.

So the playing dumb excuse as to you cant remember doesnt really cut it if you want people to believe in what yoiu are selling. And you obviously care if we buy it, you came to this board specifically to plant these thoughts in readers heads. Every post you have made has been on this subject, in this thread. You have taken time after time to make long, detailed explained posts, bolding words of importance.

You have the gullible sheep that will believe anything as long as it makes a little bit of sense, and that is what you are getting. You then have a few more educated people, that see major flaws in what you are saying, and we are on a discussion forum. If you bring up a mass conspiracy of this magnitude, you will get guys like BetSomeMore to jump through hoops believing every word you say just because a few games are hitting coincidentally, but others would like more information.

Im very open minded. But you have done nothing to show me yet something that I can say is concrete.

Your theory, your system is what Id say is parallel to human motivation in sports. That is why your games coincidentally hit at 60-70%.

Motivation is the greatest factor in capping games. The players watch ESPN just like everyone else. They hear what ESPN says. That they are bums that they suck etc, and they want to prove them wrong. And they hear when they are all-world, and they can do no wrong.

I can go on forever. But Ill stop here, and try to learn more about your theory. But I would like an explanation better for last years house struggles better than "i forgot what happened last year"

You were much better at saying that than I was. :lol:

 

[BETSOMEMORE]

How'd that work out for you ?

would have worked well cause i would have been on Giants at +3.5 which is what my book had. however due to poor money mangement earlier this season Im done for awhile doesnt mean i still not aware of lines and %'s that may help me in the future..:toast:

 

[billhill999]

would have worked well cause i would have been on Giants at +3.5 which is what my book had. however due to poor money mangement earlier this season Im done for awhile doesnt mean i still not aware of lines and %'s that may help me in the future..:toast:

I had the G-Men myself with the hook, but if you bet the money line, that wager would have gone down the toilet.

I've said it before, and I'll say it again, what it really is and what it 'seems' to be are two different things.

 

[Loren78]

Thursday Night Football

The idea of course is to implant false perceptions of the teams in the publics mind early on so that down the line the Casinos can make huge profits on games where the public is usually one side because of that teams past performances. Now understand this that in reality...the Bengals, Falcons, Giants, Patriots & Bears are all teams that are trully capable of running the table in the NFL. This is established early on in the season when those teams play to their true potential. Those teams then take dives for a certain amount of time during the season....only to turn it on again when the public has grown fed up of them....

THE CASINOS DONT MIND WHEN THIS HAPPENS BECAUSE THEN THOSE TEAMS CAN BE ALLOWED TO PLAY TO THEIR TRUE POTENTIAL BECAUSE THE HOUSE WILL NOT TAKE A TREMENDOUS HIT...BECAUSE THE PERCENTAGE OF ACTION THE TEAM RECEIVES WILL BE FAR LOWER THAN IT WAS PRIOR TO THEIR "LOOSING" STREAK...

http://forum.therx.com/showthread.php?t=422156&page=9

The public has grown quite fed up of Pittsburgh piss poor perforamces the past couple of weeks and the line shows it....

http://www.sportsbook.com/

Cleveland Browns ML = 39 % / Spread = 49 %
Pittsburgh Steelers ML = 61 % / Spread = 51 %

These are the kinds of percentages you want to see when a favourite covers. More importantly, they are indeed the kinds of percentages the House likes to see when a favourite covers...Barring the Baltimore Ravens game from a few weeks back, The Steelers are receiving the lowest percentages of action on the ML & Spread lines since early last year...

Remember, this is the time of year where the teams who ineplicably could not cover against the most mediocre of teams, now seemingly cover with ease...You saw it last week with Atlanta & Cincinnati...I expect it to continue with a Steelers team who is now no longer a Popular Favourite.....

Steelers (- 7)......IS THE PLAY

 

[BETSOMEMORE]

Thursday Night Football



The public has grown quite fed up of Pittsburgh piss poor perforamces the past couple of weeks and the line shows it....



These are the kinds of percentages you want to see when a favourite covers. More importantly, they are indeed the kinds of percentages the House likes to see when a favourite covers...Barring the Baltimore Ravens game from a few weeks back, The Steelers are receiving the lowest percentages of action on the ML & Spread lines since early last year...

Remember, this is the time of year where the teams who ineplicably could not cover against the most mediocre of teams, now seemingly cover with ease...You saw it last week with Atlanta & Cincinnati...I expect it to continue with a Steelers team who is now no longer a Popular Favourite.....

Steelers (- 7)......IS THE PLAY

GOOD CALL THOUGHT THIS MYSELF THIS IS WHAT THE HOUSE WANTS THE MOST ALMOST EVEN ACTION ON A GAME LIKE THIS I WOULD SAY THAT THIS IS WHY CLEVLAND WON LAST WEEK:toast:

 

[Loren78]

Recap of the Past 5 Weeks

Week 9 Selections

Oakland +7.5
San Francisco + 5
Miami + 14.5
Washington + 3.5
Pittsburgh - 2.5

4/5

http://forum.therx.com/showthread.php?t=422156

Week 10 Selections

Minnesota - 5
Detroit - 6
Philadelphia - 7
Pittsburgh -4.5
Tennessee +7.5
Cincinnati +1.5
N.Y Jets + 10.5
Houston + 10.5
Buffalo + 12.5
St Louis + 4

7/10

http://forum.therx.com/showthread.php?t=424413

Week 11 Selections

Indy -1
Philly -13
Carolina -7
Arizona -1
Buffalo +2.5

3/5

http://forum.therx.com/showthread.php?t=427770

Week 11 - Monday Night Selection

Jacksonville -3

1/1

http://forum.therx.com/showthread.php?t=428313

Week 12 Selections...

Miami -2.5
Tampa Bay +11
Denver - 2.5

1/3

http://forum.therx.com/showthread.php?t=429046

Week 13 Selections...

St Louis Rams - 6.5
Atlanta Falcons +2
Detroit Lions +13.5
New York Giants +3.5
Tampa Bay + 8.5
Jacksonville +1
Denver - -3.5

4/7

http://forum.therx.com/showthread.php?t=422156&page=9

Week 14 - Thursday Night Football Selection

Pittsburgh -7

1/1

http://forum.therx.com/showthread.php?t=422156&page=11

Overall 5 Week Record - 21 WINS / 11 LOSSES

Week 14

Pittsburgh winning & covering on Thursday Night further reiterated the sentiments I echoed last week in regards to teams who inexplicably could not cover throughout the season but now seemingly do so with ease. Because bettors have lost interest and the amount of money a public team like Pittsburgh receives will be lower than it usually would have been earlier in the season when the House would have gotten destroyed if teams like the Steelers have covered with any consistency...If you do the research you will notice that the Public Teams tend to cover when the percentages have evened out...and not cover when the percentages are Lop Sided...In Pittsburgh's case however, there is an asterik. They covered the week before in a rather Lop Sided game against Tampa. According to my theory, they should not have covered...but as was the case with Cincinnati who covered against the Browns the week before covering against the Ravens as well as the Falcons who covered against the Redskins last week while receiving a very high percentage, The Steelers are one of those teams that will Turn It On toward the end of the season....

The idea of course is to implant false perceptions of the teams in the publics mind early on so that down the line the Casinos can make huge profits on games where the public is usually one side because of that teams past performances. Now understand this that in reality...the Bengals, Falcons, Giants, Patriots & Bears are all teams that are trully capable of running the table in the NFL. This is established early on in the season when those teams play to their true potential. Those teams then take dives for a certain amount of time during the season....only to turn it on again when the public has grown fed up of them....

THE CASINOS DONT MIND WHEN THIS HAPPENS BECAUSE THEN THOSE TEAMS CAN BE ALLOWED TO PLAY TO THEIR TRUE POTENTIAL BECAUSE THE HOUSE WILL NOT TAKE A TREMENDOUS HIT...BECAUSE THE PERCENTAGE OF ACTION THE TEAM RECEIVES WILL BE FAR LOWER THAN IT WAS PRIOR TO THEIR "LOOSING" STREAK...

We are now at a point in the season when teams like the Bengals & the Falcons as well as the Giants whom the world had left for dead, are now going to "turn it on" again. This is happening beause the public is fed up and the amount of money the House stands to loose if these teams cover as dogs or favourites is not substantial.

http://forum.therx.com/showthread.php?t=422156&page=9

The Steelers winning & covering last Thursday Night did not cost the House much. Why? Because the percentages were far less Lop Sided than they would have been earlier in the year. Pittsburgh -7 at home to the Browns? Imagine what the number would have been in say...Week 4, before the Steelers went on vacation? Now take a look at who the Browns beat the week before...

Cleveland 31, Kansas City 28 (OT) - Week 13

And because of this win, the bettors were less reserved than they normally would have been to lay points with the Browns on the road. This above normal action on the Browns contributed to a more Even spread with Pittsburgh edging it on at about 57-60 percent. See how just 1 win the week before a game like this can influence the betting public? Isn't it amazing how well the House Lucked Out last week? Cleveland who was a very Lop Sided dog against the supposedly BETTER Kansas City team ended up not only covering but winning outright...had the Chiefs covered, the House would taken it on the Chin....Now here we are a week later last Thursday Night and for the first time in quite a long time, the Browns were receiving quite a lot of action for a bottom dwellar team facing a former Superbowl Team in the Pittsburgh Steelers...and as luck would have it...the Steelers actually won and covered....Something that they have barely done all season when all the money was on them....THE HOUSE ALWAYS SEEMS TO BE ON THE RIGHT SIDE...DONT THEY?

We must remember a couple of things....Teams like the...

Steelers
Giants
Colts
Bengals
Falcons
Chargers
Bears
Seahawks
Panthers

Are going to always receive high percentages of action week in and week out no matter how bad they play. Only after loosing streaks of 2 or more does the amount of action those teams receive start to dwindle and even then, it is still pretty high. You will notice that if those teams are playing each other then obviously, the percentages will even out. As the public will be unsure as of which way to go. The House may love games where the action is toward one side but games where there is even action ensures that they are going to have a pay day regardless of who wins. Is it any wonder that in games where the House is very concerned about a team getting too much action on one side, there are strange calls and useless penalties. But when the amount of action bet on a game is pretty even between the two teams, youll find that the game runs a lot smoother...and the players do most of the scoring not the refs....minus a the odd "blunder"

San Diego 35, Denver 27 - Week 11
Indianapolis 27, New England 20 - Week 9

We must also remember that teams like the...

Browns
Texans
Cardinals
Dolphins
Bucs
Lions

Are always going to receive lower percentages of action week in week out depending on how well they play. This of course is different to the Popular Public teams who regardless of how bad they play, receive high amounts of action until maybe their 3rd or fourth loss or non cover in a row. Where as teams like the a forementioned...depending on how well they play the week before, receive very low percentages. For example....

Miami won 4 in a row....

Miami 31, Chicago 13 (-13) - Week 9

Miami 13, Kansas City 10 (-2) - Week 10

(-3)Miami 24, Minnesota 20 - Week 11

(-2.5)Miami 27, Detroit 10 - Week 12

Notice how no matter how many times Miami won, they were still the underdog in 3 out of their 4 wins the past 4 weeks. Yes in the Minnesota game they were favoured but the Vikings...were getting more action than Miami was...Look who covered? Kansas City & Chicago were games that featured Lop Sided action toward one side...and we all know by now what happens when that happens...the dog covers. But take a look what happened in their next 2 games...The percentages started to even out because obviously, the public was kind of split on which way to go....Even Keel Action....Remember, this is the kind of action you like to see when favourites cover....now obviously after winning 4 in a row....the public and even the sharps start to get on the Miami Bandwagon....look what happened next....

Jacksonville 24, Miami 10 (-2)

Notice Miami was now getting a higher volume of action than the Jaguars...but the Jags are a better team...and have proven so in the past...and yet Miami was getting more action...Why? Every game that Miami won...was a game where the percentages were heavily swayed toward the other side or they were very even...in other words...When they were a dog and the money was all on the other side, they covered...when they were a favourite and the money in the middle or slightly toward the other side...they covered....

But when they were a favourite and the money was toward their side....they lost....take a look at who the Jags played the week before...

Buffalo 27, Jacksonville 24 (-3) - Week 12

Obviously Jacksonville was getting a very high percentage. They win and the House takes a nose dive, they loose and the poor get poorer and the House gets richer...How convenient for the House in that the very next week when the Jags are uncharacteristically dogs to a less superior team in Miami, they cover, and the House once again ends up on the right side...

When I make selections from week to week, I keep these kinds of anomolies in mind. This is why its important to keep track of who the teams have played the week before and the week after. When you do this you will often find a pattern. The pattern is based on upon several things....

1) The amount of action the team will receive...the present week and the week after

2) The last time the team covered as a dog or a favourite and what were the percentages like

3) Who they played the week before and after...

Remember, that the House loves it when big favourites and or big dogs get plenty of action because this is how they make money. So you will often find that what a team does in Week 13 will set them up as a big favourite or dog the following week...or even the week after that. Sometimes the team may have on several games in succession...so that on that particular day...the public gets sideswipped when the team they have come to know and love...does not show up..

Tennessee @ Houston (-1)

Without question one of the more interesting games of the week. I am going to get right down to it.....It is my opinion that the games are rigged in such a way that when teams cover as favourites, it will be when the amount of action each team receives is close to even. And that when teams cover as dogs, it will be when the amount of action is very Lop Sided toward the other team. This does not apply to Cincinnati, Atlanta or Pittsburgh for reasons I have already discussed. DO NOT approach those games involving those teams today with this line of thinking. Those teams only have 3 weeks left to make the playoffs & 2 of em have a good shot at it...they'ev made the Casinos enough money..and so now its time to get down to business..

(-7) Baltimore 27, Tennessee 26 - Week 10
Tennessee 31, Philadelphia 13 (-13) - Week 11
Tennessee 24, N.Y. Giants 21 (-3) - Week 12
Tennessee 20, Indianapolis 17 (-7.5) - Week 13

Tennessee at Houston (-1) - ???

See a pattern ? I sure do. The last 4 teams Tennessee faced were all heavy favourites receiving very large amounts of Lop Sided Action. The House made a killing on every single one of those games...but this week. Tennessee is now receiving the larger share of the action as there has been line movement throughout the week. Sure they can cover and even win outright when they were an Unpopular and Non public dog....Great news for the House....but what happens when they start receiving accolades from the public and the bandwagon starts getting larger...and Vince Young is on the Best Damn Sports Show telling everyone that Mathias Kiwanuka thought he threw the ball and that is why he "let him go"....and then the percentages start to look like this....

http://www.caribsports.com/docs/ALL.caribpicks.html
http://www.sportsbook.com/sportsbook/betting-trends.php

Tennessee Titans - Spread = 78.92 %
Houston Texans - Spread = 21.08 %

Never mind the fact that this same Tennessee team walked in to Jacksonville a few ago and left to the tune of....

Jacksonville 37, Tennessee 7 - Week 9

and that this same Houston team walked into Jacksonville just a few short weeks ago and left to the tune of.....

Houston 13, Jacksonville 10 - Week 10


Did Houston cover as a favourite their last time out...& what were the percentages like..?

Buffalo 24, Houston 21 (-2.5) - Week 11 - Lop Sided Affair

Did Tennessee cover as a dog their last time out...& what were the percentages like..?

Tennessee 20, Indianapolis 17 (-7.5) - Week 13 - Extremely Lop Sided

Who will Tennessee play next week? What kind of percentages should we expect..?

Jacksonville at Tennessee - Week 15 - Not very lop sided. Percentages should be more even...a loss may push it toward the Jags for a small road favourite..Either way. the opinion on this game would vary.

Houston at New England - Week 15 - Regardless of the outcome this week, New England will be yet again, a heavy favourite...because they are popular and public.

Who these teams play the following week is not so important in this game...however the heavy action on the Titans in association with the fact that both Tennessee has covered 4 straight times as a dog while getting little money action and Houston not covering as a favourite the last time they were a favourite while getting heavy action...is the perfect timing scenario for the reverse to occur...


Houston -1..............is the play


Baltimore @ Kansas City (-3)

The percentages as of this moment in regards to this game heavily favour Baltimore. Thanks to KC's loss last week...the public is afraid of going with them this week....Notice who they lost to in Week 13. The Browns. The House made a killing. Now that the percentages have evened out....guess whos going to win? A Kansas City Win this weekend sets up a very Even Keel Percentage game next week vs the Chargers.. The amount of action the Chargers receive in that game will be far less than what they are receiving this week. Can the House really afford to have the Chargers cover two straight games with that much public money on one side in both games? Not a chance. Kansas City covering this weekend..will not hurt the House financially...where as last weekend it certainly would have...The public will be impressed by KC just enough to give them enough action next week so that San Diego winning a revenge game...does not completely destroy the House financially....

Kansas City -3.........is the play


New York @ Carolina (pick)

Take a good look at the Panthers and you will notice that the last two games they have played...they were heavy favourites receiving a large amount of action from the public. Now take a good look at the Giants and you will notice that the last game they have played, was the only game out of the last 4 games they played where they were receiving a smaller amount of action from the public than their opponent. Dallas was indeed the Popular pick last week. Incidentally, at +3.5, it was the first time in weeks the Giants covered...as a dog. Now the Carolina is a similar situation where it has been weeks since they covered as a favourite....where they opened at but the line has since fallen to a pickem thanks to the injured status of Delhomme. The public is ready to pounce on the Giants and rightfully so as they are indeed about to make a playoff run....but folks...it wont start today....lets take a look the numbers as of this moment....

http://www.sportsbook.com/sportsbook/betting-trends.php
http://www.caribsports.com/

New York Giants ML = n/a / Spread = 76.91 %
Carolina Panthers ML = n/a / Spread = 23.09 %

Those are not the kinds of percentages you want to see a dog or a favourite getting....Isn't it interesting that the Giants covered a spread last week when they were NOT receiving a large amount of action from the public. The House ended up on you guessed it.............the right side. Now here we are a week later where the Giants are now receiving the same kinds of percentages they were getting when they were loosing and not covering. They are playing a team that has not covered the last two times they were favoured....

Washington 17, Carolina 13 (-6) - Week 12
Philadelphia 27, Carolina 24 (-3) - Week 13

Incidentally, on both occasions, they were receiving the lions share of the action and the House cleaned up. This time around they are not receiving the lions share of the publics money. And the recent announcement of Delhomme's injury and Weinke's imminent arrival has push the percentages even further toward the Giants. Do the Giants really need to win today? Can the Syndicate really afford to let the Giants cover with that much money riding on them?

Who do they play next week?

Philadelphia at N.Y. Giants - Week 15

Lets get imaginative for a moment. Just imagine if the Eagles were to win this weekend and the Giants were to loose. The bandwagon would empty...and the amount of money put down the Giants next week would decrease significantly, to a point where if they were to win against the Eagles, the House would not take the kind of hit they would take if the Giants actually win and cover against the Panthers today. The media would spend the entire week criticizing Eli again, and praising Garcia for taking control of the situation in Philly...then Sunday would come and the Eagles would get blown out..and the House would get at least half the action on that game as the public would not be entirely on the Giants..the Giants go on to face the Saints at home and the Skins on the road to close out the year. Both very winnable games....Everybody wins...Too Far Fetched?..... Maybe....but I'd wait one more week before we get back on the NY bandwagon....

Carolina Panthers (pick)........is the play

(-1) Philadelphia @ Washington

I think you already know where I am going with this one...and if you are still with me...you probably already understand why. Now granted Philly is getting over 60 percent of the action in this game. The public is still not sold on Jeff Garcia. But as I said last week. He may be 36 but hes a damn good 36 and has probably got a few good years left in him yet...their lucky he doesn't have his old legs or he might of really been able to do some damage. Washington covered as a dog their last two times as a dog while Philly did not cover as a favourite their last time out....The amount of action Philly is receiving is higher than the Skins but it isn't as high as it normally would have been if McNabb was in action. Washington plays New Orleans next week, a team that actually covered the last they were a favourite which was against the Niners last week...The action they receive next week vs the Skins will be quite substantial...Something tells me the Sportsbook Directors will be rooting for the Skins next week...

Philadelphia -1........is the play


Now I am only making 4 selections this week, however because there are so many games on a Sunday..I would like to share an opinion on some of those games as the games I am playing, some of you may not be.....I would be weary of the following teams...

Tampa...
Oakland..
Indianapolis..
New England..
Seattle...
San Diego...
Minnesota...

There is an awful lot of money coming down on 5 of those teams today, while 2 of them in Tampa & Oakland are playing teams who have playoff aspirations and may have up and quit themselves as we are now approaching the climax of the season where teams start loose focus and others regain it....

RECAP

Houston (-1)

Kansas (-3)

Carolina (Pick)

Philadelphia (-1)

 

[BETSOMEMORE]

Love The Houston Play Books Begging You To Take Tenn Off The Win To Indy Not So Sure On Kc Or Philly Like Carolina At +2.5 Wish It Were +3 Also On My List Is Buffalo Due To Heavy %% On Jets For Some Reason Think This Is One Of Them Sleeper Games. Bol This Week Should Be Interesting To See How Things Play Out.

 

[billhill999]

Like Carolina At +2.5 Wish It Were +3 Also On My List Is Buffalo Due To Heavy %% On Jets For Some Reason Think This Is One Of Them Sleeper Games. Bol This Week Should Be Interesting To See How Things Play Out.

Here's your +3

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=415 border=0><TBODY><TR class=RCB><TD class=DB width=415>01:10 PM </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=415 border=0><TBODY><TR class=RCB><TD class=SNB width=200>211. Giants (New York)</TD><TD id=M69 align=right width=45>-145</TD><TD id=P69 align=right width=75>-3 +105</TD><TD id=T69 style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e5e5e5" align=right width=95>ov 38½ -110</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=415 border=0><TBODY><TR class=RCB><TD class=SNB width=200>212. Panthers (Carolina)</TD><TD id=M70 align=right width=45>+125</TD><TD id=P70 align=right width=75>+3 -125</TD><TD id=T70 style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #e5e5e5" align=right width=95>un 38½ -110</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><SCRIPT type=text/javascript>GenerateStatsURLs(0, 21574, 211, true);</SCRIPT><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=415 border=0><TBODY><TR class=RCB aling="Center"><TD width=115> </TD><TD width=70>Matchup</TD><TD width=70>Ratings</TD><TD width=70>Standings</TD><TD width=70>Scoreboard</TD><TD width=70>Weather</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>


I'm all over Bufallo myself.

Good luck.

 

[Loren78]

Love The Houston Play Books Begging You To Take Tenn Off The Win To Indy Not So Sure On Kc Or Philly Like Carolina At +2.5 Wish It Were +3 Also On My List Is Buffalo Due To Heavy %% On Jets For Some Reason Think This Is One Of Them Sleeper Games. Bol This Week Should Be Interesting To See How Things Play Out.

Looks like you may have been right about KC...Green is ummm...Im not sure what he is...The Jets/Buff game has me a bit perplexed....staying away from it myself....probably take Buffalo if I had to....

 

[BETSOMEMORE]

well Houston turned out almost like I thought but in the end I think an ot game can go either way so Not surprised at the outcome . Had my doubts on Kc Good feeling on buffalo . Carolina just didnt show up. Hope you return for next weeks games.