Fade Adams Friday Game Analysis
[h=4]Friday's Selection ...[/h] For Friday late afternoon, going with the small favoriite in Virginia Tech as they take on Rutgers in the Russell Athletic Bowl. As of 6:30 am eastern when I release this selection, the Hokies are the -2 point favorite over the Scarlet Knights.
Let's face it, as far as Virginia Tech editions go, this is certainly not one of Frank Beamer's better bunches, but they manage wins in their final pair of games to become bowl-eligible for the millionth time in a row. I am well aware of the fact Tech is a money-burning 7-20 against the spread their last 27 lined games, but after backing Rutgers with no success in their key home game against Louisville, I am not so sure I want to put my eggs in this Scarlet Knight basket, especially with losses in their last pair and 3 of their last 5 overall to get to this Orlando bowl game.
The Knights offense at the end of the season was just plain offensive as the Scarlet Knights scored just 33 total points in their last 3 games, and QB Nova regressed with 12 picks his last 5 games.
Rutgers has a staunch defense no doubt, but Tech's D when you factor in the strength of schedule can be every bit as staunch, plus I saw Hokies QB Logan Thomas show flashes this season, and can envision this senior leading his team to a career-capping bowl win and cover.
That being the case, I am siding with V-Tech to come through with the win versus a Rutgers team that was in prime contention to be playing in a BCS bowl, but wound up playing before New Year's for this lower tier game.
Hokies, gobble, gobble!
[h=4]Friday's Selection ...[/h] For Friday late afternoon, going with the small favoriite in Virginia Tech as they take on Rutgers in the Russell Athletic Bowl. As of 6:30 am eastern when I release this selection, the Hokies are the -2 point favorite over the Scarlet Knights.
Let's face it, as far as Virginia Tech editions go, this is certainly not one of Frank Beamer's better bunches, but they manage wins in their final pair of games to become bowl-eligible for the millionth time in a row. I am well aware of the fact Tech is a money-burning 7-20 against the spread their last 27 lined games, but after backing Rutgers with no success in their key home game against Louisville, I am not so sure I want to put my eggs in this Scarlet Knight basket, especially with losses in their last pair and 3 of their last 5 overall to get to this Orlando bowl game.
The Knights offense at the end of the season was just plain offensive as the Scarlet Knights scored just 33 total points in their last 3 games, and QB Nova regressed with 12 picks his last 5 games.
Rutgers has a staunch defense no doubt, but Tech's D when you factor in the strength of schedule can be every bit as staunch, plus I saw Hokies QB Logan Thomas show flashes this season, and can envision this senior leading his team to a career-capping bowl win and cover.
That being the case, I am siding with V-Tech to come through with the win versus a Rutgers team that was in prime contention to be playing in a BCS bowl, but wound up playing before New Year's for this lower tier game.
Hokies, gobble, gobble!
Trace Adams Saturday Game Analysis
[h=4]Saturday's Selection ...[/h] For Saturday, 1500♦ Raise the Bar release is the Oregon State Beavers as the favorite playing against the Texas Longhorns. As of 10:05 pm eastern when I release my selection, the Beavers are -3 1/2 point faves both in Vegas and offshore. If your line dips back to -3 or if it is -3 1/2 I want you to buy the half point down on the Beavers.
Let's face it, these aren't your Longhorns of years gone by, the Horns you could count on to win 10 games, then go bowling and deliver a win and cover to cap the season. Nope, this Texas team ain't even close, as Mack Brown's bunch finished at 8-4 straight up and lost back-to-back games to TCU and Kansas State to end the regular season.
Texas has also had some off-field distractions with the suspension of QB McCoy and linebacker Hicks who have been sent home due to some shenanigans at the team hotel.
Texas remains inconsistent on offense, and on defense, they have been gouged a plenty this year, giving up 48 to West Virginia, 63 to Oklahoma, 50 to Baylor, and 42 in their last game at Kansas State. You can assume the Beavers will also find the end-zone more than a few times, as OSU did average over 44 points per game their last 5 of the regular season. True, scoring 77 points on lowly Nichols State in Corvallis is not the same as scoring on a Texas team playing in-state at the Alamo Bowl, but I believe in the desire of this Oregon State team, as they won just 3 games last season, and are making their first bowl appearance since 2009.
Mike Riley is usually money when he gets his team to a bowl game, as the Beavers are 5-1 straight up and 4-2 against the spread in bowl games since 2003. Compare that with Texas' 4-7 bowl spread mark their last 11 trips to the postseason, and you can see why I am backing this Pac 12 entrant over the down-year Longhorns from the Big 12.
Oregon State as the small favorite to deliver.
[h=4]Saturday's Selection ...[/h] For Saturday, 1500♦ Raise the Bar release is the Oregon State Beavers as the favorite playing against the Texas Longhorns. As of 10:05 pm eastern when I release my selection, the Beavers are -3 1/2 point faves both in Vegas and offshore. If your line dips back to -3 or if it is -3 1/2 I want you to buy the half point down on the Beavers.
Let's face it, these aren't your Longhorns of years gone by, the Horns you could count on to win 10 games, then go bowling and deliver a win and cover to cap the season. Nope, this Texas team ain't even close, as Mack Brown's bunch finished at 8-4 straight up and lost back-to-back games to TCU and Kansas State to end the regular season.
Texas has also had some off-field distractions with the suspension of QB McCoy and linebacker Hicks who have been sent home due to some shenanigans at the team hotel.
Texas remains inconsistent on offense, and on defense, they have been gouged a plenty this year, giving up 48 to West Virginia, 63 to Oklahoma, 50 to Baylor, and 42 in their last game at Kansas State. You can assume the Beavers will also find the end-zone more than a few times, as OSU did average over 44 points per game their last 5 of the regular season. True, scoring 77 points on lowly Nichols State in Corvallis is not the same as scoring on a Texas team playing in-state at the Alamo Bowl, but I believe in the desire of this Oregon State team, as they won just 3 games last season, and are making their first bowl appearance since 2009.
Mike Riley is usually money when he gets his team to a bowl game, as the Beavers are 5-1 straight up and 4-2 against the spread in bowl games since 2003. Compare that with Texas' 4-7 bowl spread mark their last 11 trips to the postseason, and you can see why I am backing this Pac 12 entrant over the down-year Longhorns from the Big 12.
Oregon State as the small favorite to deliver.
Fade Adams Sunday Game Analysis
[h=4]Sunday's Selection ...[/h] For Sunday, Week 17 of the NFL season, 1500♦ Raise the Bar Sunday Winner #6 of 8 is the Minnesota Vikings as the home underdog against the visiting Green Bay Packers. At the time I release this pick to you, the Vikings are +3 1/2 point underdogs against the Packers. If your line should dip to +3, buy the half point up on the Vikings.
On December 2nd, Minnesota was leading Green Bay at Lambeau Field by a 14-10 count at the half, and the Vikings were inside the 10 to take a 21-10 when Christian Ponder threw a pick in the Packers end zone. Green Bay went on to win it 23-14 for their 5th straight series victory. Today, the Pack look to secure a first-round bye and the #2 seed with their 6th straight win, but on the flip side is a Vikings team that can clinch a Wild Card spot with a home win, and of course the side story is Adrian Peterson's attempt at NFL history.
Who wins? I think Minnesota has an excellent chance at winning this game outright, the fact we are catching a field goal or so in the Twin Cities is an added bonus. The Vikings have played their best football of the season at home, going 6-1 straight up and have recorded home underdog outright wins over the 49ers, Lions and the Bears already this season.
Green Bay is still trying to get healthy bodies back on both sides of the football, and while Aaron Rodgers and company have won and covered 4 in a row, and have won outright in 9 of their last 10 games, they have suffered 3 of their 4 losses this season away from home.
The host in the series is on a 4-1 against the spread the last 5 times these teams have met, and with Packers kicker Mason Crosby proving most unreliable for the better part of this season (just 19 of 31 on field goal tries this season!), it makes it hard to lay the road chalk in this one. Also consider Peterson logged 210 yards in the first meeting, and I think we are going to see "Purple Pride" rise to the occasion in this home finale.
Take the points.
[h=4]Sunday's Selection ...[/h] For Sunday, Week 17 of the NFL season, 1500♦ Raise the Bar Sunday Winner #6 of 8 is the Minnesota Vikings as the home underdog against the visiting Green Bay Packers. At the time I release this pick to you, the Vikings are +3 1/2 point underdogs against the Packers. If your line should dip to +3, buy the half point up on the Vikings.
On December 2nd, Minnesota was leading Green Bay at Lambeau Field by a 14-10 count at the half, and the Vikings were inside the 10 to take a 21-10 when Christian Ponder threw a pick in the Packers end zone. Green Bay went on to win it 23-14 for their 5th straight series victory. Today, the Pack look to secure a first-round bye and the #2 seed with their 6th straight win, but on the flip side is a Vikings team that can clinch a Wild Card spot with a home win, and of course the side story is Adrian Peterson's attempt at NFL history.
Who wins? I think Minnesota has an excellent chance at winning this game outright, the fact we are catching a field goal or so in the Twin Cities is an added bonus. The Vikings have played their best football of the season at home, going 6-1 straight up and have recorded home underdog outright wins over the 49ers, Lions and the Bears already this season.
Green Bay is still trying to get healthy bodies back on both sides of the football, and while Aaron Rodgers and company have won and covered 4 in a row, and have won outright in 9 of their last 10 games, they have suffered 3 of their 4 losses this season away from home.
The host in the series is on a 4-1 against the spread the last 5 times these teams have met, and with Packers kicker Mason Crosby proving most unreliable for the better part of this season (just 19 of 31 on field goal tries this season!), it makes it hard to lay the road chalk in this one. Also consider Peterson logged 210 yards in the first meeting, and I think we are going to see "Purple Pride" rise to the occasion in this home finale.
Take the points.
Trace Adams Monday Game Analysis
[h=4]Monday's Selection ...[/h] For Monday, 1500♦ Raise the Bar Winner #4 of 5 goes out on Tulsa as the small underdog against Iowa State. As of 7:00 am when I release this selection, the Golden Hurricane are the +2 point underdog to the Cyclones both in Vegas and offshore.
Since it is New Year's Eve, and you have other things to do, I will be brief with my reasoning, Tulsa has in-season revenge on their minds after an opening week 38-23 loss in Ames to the same Iowa State Cyclones they are playing today.
Tulsa wound up finishing the year at 10-3 straight up, including a Conference USA Championship Game overtime win and cover versus Central Florida, and now they get their revenge on an Iowa State team that was only able to finish at 6-6 overall after that opening week double-digit win over Tulsa.
The Golden Hurricane are on a 6-2 spread run as they head into this Liberty Bowl clash, and the better news is they are on a 5-2 straight up bowl run with underdog covers in 2 of their 3 when installed as the pup in those bowl games over the last 7 seasons.
As for Iowa State, just don't trust a team that dropped 5 of their final 7 games straight up to be laying any points at all this afternoon. The Cyclones defense has allowed 31 points or more in 4 of their last 6, and today they are forced to contain Tulsa's varied attack.
In their first meeting back on September 1st, the Golden Hurricane were the road favorite, as the road underdog Bill Blankenship's team has thrived, going 7-2 versus the spread their last 9. That includes a cover at Arkansas this season in their only try as the road pup.
I like any points they are giving today, but think Tulsa will win this game outright.
Golden Hurricane the call in this year's Liberty Bowl!
[h=4]Monday's Selection ...[/h] For Monday, 1500♦ Raise the Bar Winner #4 of 5 goes out on Tulsa as the small underdog against Iowa State. As of 7:00 am when I release this selection, the Golden Hurricane are the +2 point underdog to the Cyclones both in Vegas and offshore.
Since it is New Year's Eve, and you have other things to do, I will be brief with my reasoning, Tulsa has in-season revenge on their minds after an opening week 38-23 loss in Ames to the same Iowa State Cyclones they are playing today.
Tulsa wound up finishing the year at 10-3 straight up, including a Conference USA Championship Game overtime win and cover versus Central Florida, and now they get their revenge on an Iowa State team that was only able to finish at 6-6 overall after that opening week double-digit win over Tulsa.
The Golden Hurricane are on a 6-2 spread run as they head into this Liberty Bowl clash, and the better news is they are on a 5-2 straight up bowl run with underdog covers in 2 of their 3 when installed as the pup in those bowl games over the last 7 seasons.
As for Iowa State, just don't trust a team that dropped 5 of their final 7 games straight up to be laying any points at all this afternoon. The Cyclones defense has allowed 31 points or more in 4 of their last 6, and today they are forced to contain Tulsa's varied attack.
In their first meeting back on September 1st, the Golden Hurricane were the road favorite, as the road underdog Bill Blankenship's team has thrived, going 7-2 versus the spread their last 9. That includes a cover at Arkansas this season in their only try as the road pup.
I like any points they are giving today, but think Tulsa will win this game outright.
Golden Hurricane the call in this year's Liberty Bowl!
Trace Adams Tuesday Game Analysis
[h=4]Tuesday's Selection ...[/h] For Tuesday in college football, Highest-Rated 2000♦ Winner #11 of 15 overall goes on the underdog Purdue Boilermakers as they play against the Oklahoma State Cowboys in this year's Ticket City Bowl. As of 10:05 pm eastern time when I release my selection, the Boilers are +17 point underdogs in both Vegas and the offshore books.
Way too many points, plain and simple!
Yes, Oklahoma State is good, but are they good enough to cover this monster impost? I simply do not believe they are. The Cowboys lost their final 2 games of the regular season, and they also went just 1-4 against the spread on the road this season. Throw in Mike Gundy's average 3-3 spread mark over the last 6 years in bowl games, and you can see why I think this price is just ridiculous to lay.
Purdue may not be vintage, and they did indeed get rid of their head coach Danny Hope after 3 seasons, but former Kent State head man Darrell Hazell will be on hand to keep next year's starting hopefuls in line, and the Boilermakers do have a slew of seniors who should be pretty jacked-up about the fact Purdue is "bowling" after winning 3 straight to close the season and become bowl-eligible.
The Boilermakers did win and cover their bowl game last season, and they are playing an Oklahoma State team that was dreaming of a bigger and better bowl game until they hit the skids with those losses to Oklahoma and Baylor to end the season.
Cowboys are going to get their points, make no mistake about it, but their defense has proven too unreliable and the Pokes also have a bad penchant for hurting themselves with the turnover. That is a bad combination in general, but when it is combined with laying 17-points or so, then it really is playing with fire.
Boilermakers stay close enough to get me the bacon. Take the points.
[h=4]Tuesday's Selection ...[/h] For Tuesday in college football, Highest-Rated 2000♦ Winner #11 of 15 overall goes on the underdog Purdue Boilermakers as they play against the Oklahoma State Cowboys in this year's Ticket City Bowl. As of 10:05 pm eastern time when I release my selection, the Boilers are +17 point underdogs in both Vegas and the offshore books.
Way too many points, plain and simple!
Yes, Oklahoma State is good, but are they good enough to cover this monster impost? I simply do not believe they are. The Cowboys lost their final 2 games of the regular season, and they also went just 1-4 against the spread on the road this season. Throw in Mike Gundy's average 3-3 spread mark over the last 6 years in bowl games, and you can see why I think this price is just ridiculous to lay.
Purdue may not be vintage, and they did indeed get rid of their head coach Danny Hope after 3 seasons, but former Kent State head man Darrell Hazell will be on hand to keep next year's starting hopefuls in line, and the Boilermakers do have a slew of seniors who should be pretty jacked-up about the fact Purdue is "bowling" after winning 3 straight to close the season and become bowl-eligible.
The Boilermakers did win and cover their bowl game last season, and they are playing an Oklahoma State team that was dreaming of a bigger and better bowl game until they hit the skids with those losses to Oklahoma and Baylor to end the season.
Cowboys are going to get their points, make no mistake about it, but their defense has proven too unreliable and the Pokes also have a bad penchant for hurting themselves with the turnover. That is a bad combination in general, but when it is combined with laying 17-points or so, then it really is playing with fire.
Boilermakers stay close enough to get me the bacon. Take the points.
