Fade Adams Thursday Game Analysis
[h=4]Thursday's Selection ...[/h] For Thursday night, 1500♦ Lead Pipe Lock Winner is the San Diego State Aztecs as the underdog to the BYU Cougars in the Poinsettia Bowl. As of 6:30 am eastern when I release my selection, the Aztecs are listed as the 3 1/2 point underdog to the Cougars. Since there is plenty of line movement in these bowl games, here is what I am instructing all clients to do, if your price is anywhere from +2 1/2 points to +3 1/2 points, I want you to buy the half point up on the Aztecs.
I honestly don't think we are going to need any points tonight, but if they want to give me a field goal with the hometown Aztecs, I am all for it!
SD State started the year at 2-3 under 2nd year coach Rocky Long, then ripped off 7 straight wins and did cover in 6 of those 7 wins - lone non-cover was as an 18 point fave in an 11 point win over UNLV. Included in that stretch are outright wins in the dog role at Nevada and at Boise State on the blue carpet. A win tonight would cap a 10 win season, which would be the Aztecs 1st since 1977!
It is all lined up for San Diego State tonight in the stadium they play their home games in. BYU comes in to California with 5 straight up losses this year. Don't let the perception that the Cougars play the "tougher schedule" fool you, BYU defeated just 1 team with a winning record this season. And as for the fact their defense is highly rated against the run, well, the top rush attack they faced was a Notre Dame team that ran for 270 yards against them. State will do some business on the ground against this Cougars defense, trust me.
BYU owns a 3-game bowl win and cover streak, but they did go 0-4 against the spread as a single-digit favorite this season, and lost 3 of the 4 straight up.
San Diego State lost a tough one last season in their bowl game, 32-30 to UL Lafayette, but did win in this very game in 2010 routing the Naval Academy 35-14.
Look for State to increase on their 3-1 spread mark this year when getting points, as they take care of business versus BYU in the Poinsettia Bowl.
Lead Pipe Lock on the Aztecs.