Fade Adams Saturday Game Analysis
[h=4]Saturday's Selection ...[/h] For Saturday in college football, Highest-Rated 2000♦ Winner #9 of 12 goes on the undxedog Nevada Wolf Pack as they play against the Arizona Wildcats in the New Mexico Bowl. As of 10:05 pm eastern when I release this selection, Nevada is listed as the +9 point underdog both in Vegas and offshore.
I don't just LIKE Nevada today, I LOVE them plus the points!
Seriously, both teams are suspect on the defensive side of things, as Arizona has allowed at least 36 points or more in 7 of their 12 games, including 31 points or more in 4 of their last 5 games heading into Albuquerque for this Saturday afternoon meeting with Nevada.
Yes, the Wolf Pack have had their defensive shortcomings as well, but we are not backing them minus the points, we are backing them plus the points, and the Pack did hold Boise State to 27 points in their back-door cover on the 1st, and they have covered in 2 of their 3 tries as the underdog this season.
QB Cody Fajardo has done a solid job piloting coach Ault's pistol-attack offense as the Wolf Pack have been quite balanced between the run and the pass, and no doubt Fajardo will get his chances against the yielding Wildcat defense.
This is Ault's 8th straight bowl game with Nevada, and the Wolf Pack are 1-1-1 against the spread when listed as a bowl dog. Conversely, this will be Arizona's "maiden voyage" to a bowl game under 1st year coach Rich Rodriguez. While Rodriguez has past experience coaching in bowl games (Michigan and West Virginia), the same cannot be said for his players who missed out on a bowl game last season, and lost their previous pair of bowl games both straight up and against the spread in '09 and '10.
For the season the Wildcats went just 1-4 ATS when listed as the favorite, so while 'Zona may have the better talent, I seriously doubt whether they can stretch this margin past a TD.
This game has all the makings of a back-and-forth affair that could well be decided on the last possession...if not overtime.
All about the Wolf Pack and the points in this year's New Mexico Bowl, and you should be too.