The Sports Cruncher's Week #11 NCAA Football Thread

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Chomping at the bits
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Put in some of the other games after seeing this open at 48. I have some factors that favor the Under, but when my # is 10 points off the opening #, I need to hit it right away regardless.

3/5th Unit: DUKE @ SYR Over 51
 

Chomping at the bits
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Most of these smaller unit total plays are on slim to none baseline total value, where other factors leaned it one way or the other into a play.

That's pretty much it for the initial rush. Well, I certainly don't have as many plays as last week, anyway, lol. Lines much tighter overall.
 

Even DONKS win sometimes... Right?
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Not a single 2U total play. The books must be stepping up their game!
 

Chomping at the bits
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Not a single 2U total play. The books must be stepping up their game!

Yeah, closest thing to it is the WSU @ ORST Under, and that's assuming that the QB plays 3-4 points worse than Halliday, though he did a good job when he came in last week. WSU Unders are a crapshoot, obviously, as they're a sloppy team that gives up at least one cheap touchdown a game. I had the Under in the CAL @ ORST game last week, and the first quarter ended at 3-0. The rest of the quarters averaged 24 points after that, though, unfortunately, lol. WSU has a slightly better defense, and a much worse offense than CAL (in that WSU is one-dimensional, where CAL also has a running game), so as long as there isn't more than one cheap score, I really like this one to play out to WSU 20 -- ORST 31.
 

Chomping at the bits
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Bowling Green is probably the worst team in FBS with a winning record this year. They've faced the easiest schedule of pass defenses of any team in the country, and even though they gained yards against the bad teams, their passing game is one of the worst in football by my ratings. Good defenses can limit their success, which is exactly what Akron will do tonight. Meanwhile, their defense is still putrid, also a bottom 25 squad.

The MAC is frequently unpredictable, but Akron is such a better team here, and playing at home. I'll be very surprised if they don't get the double digit win tonight.
 

Chomping at the bits
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Line down to 3.5 at heritage large move

Unless the fix is in I'm comfortable with my positions, lol. Late action doesn't mean a heckuva' lot. Squares getting their first bets in, sharps getting their buy-backs in. If BGSU was really the sharp side they would've been bet early and often when the lines were widely released and limits were raised, the opposite of which happened.
 

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Bowling Green is probably the worst team in FBS with a winning record this year. They've faced the easiest schedule of pass defenses of any team in the country, and even though they gained yards against the bad teams, their passing game is one of the worst in football by my ratings. Good defenses can limit their success, which is exactly what Akron will do tonight. Meanwhile, their defense is still putrid, also a bottom 25 squad.

The MAC is frequently unpredictable, but Akron is such a better team here, and playing at home. I'll be very surprised if they don't get the double digit win tonight.

I can dig it, especially with a backup qb for
Big Girl State University

Lets cash 1 tonite, Go Zips!
 

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Loving the UNDER in the Toledo Kent State game. The weather is going to be a HUGE factor! RUN RUN RUN
 

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I actually got in late on this game at 57. Still like it as this game is really slow for points...just dont see this thing being a high scoring affair with the weather.
 

Chomping at the bits
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This game has been a comedy of errors from the coaches on down to the players. Akron foolishly ends up with no time-outs, and BGSU obliges by passing on 3rd and long anyway, lol, and then the Akron return man nullifies what would have been a nice return by waving his arms, lol.

Why to God did they run it with 22 seconds left? Oh my God, their coach is braindead, unreal.
 

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I thought about this game and as bad as Bowling Green has been this year - I think their coach is good. He will get them rolling next year during his 2nd season.
 

Chomping at the bits
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Akron starts the 3rd Q. with the ball and the wind at their back.

1 Unit: Akron pick 2nd half (-130)

Gonna start the week off in a tidy hole if Akron loses this game, lol.
 

Chomping at the bits
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Sure, none of the breaks have gone Akron's way and the weather has made them drop a billion balls, but they're still not winning at the line of scrimmage, by and large, so the play was not a good one, as far as I'm concerned now. Oh well, starting the week in the hole, all will be forgotten (mostly) by tomorrow, lol.
 

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