The Sports Cruncher's Week #11 NCAA Football Thread

[tmader7]

TC, how's those #'s look compared to closing lines? I'm convinced you don't sleep Saturday nights in anticipation of the opening lines, gonna give that a try myself this coming week as I don't sleep, watched that Nevada/Diego St game till the end this past weekend and when it hit, hell, had to go out and run 5 miles just to burn it off, lol.

~T~

 

[thecruncher]

On recommended plays, the top picks again did very well. 1.5 unit plays went 2-0. 2 unit plays went 5-3, but it was precisely on only the three 2 unit plays that ended up losing that I bought back a unit the other way for the hedge/middle. So you could say that on true unhedged 2 unit plays I went 5-0 (did do a 2nd half hedge on the KSU game, unfortunately). Which brings me to the debacle of 2nd half plays of last week. Games sides and totals were more than +8 units up for the week, but a bevy of 2nd half losers dropped the weekly profit all the way down to less than a unit. Disappointed to see a prime week in the season end up being such a small winner. I gambled in what I thought were good spots, but luck was not on my side for many of those plays. But as I've mentioned before, luck plays a higher role in half plays because you're wagering on a smaller time frame or results. 2nd half plays are overall losers for the year now, after getting off to a very strong start. Variance is a bitch -- if I can't control my 2nd half compulsions maybe I should start making 1/4 unit plays to limit the potential damage they can do, lol.

I massacred the market lines more than any other week so far, picking up 117 total points on my wagers versus the closing lines. I had the most plays of the year, do you see the correlation? I bet everything that I thought had value, and almost everything that I bet with value gained that value during the week. I'm not showing as much value for the lines on sides so far this week -- fewer plays so far for sure.

 

[thecruncher]

TC, how's those #'s look compared to closing lines? I'm convinced you don't sleep Saturday nights in anticipation of the opening lines, gonna give that a try myself this coming week as I don't sleep, watched that Nevada/Diego St game till the end this past weekend and when it hit, hell, had to go out and run 5 miles just to burn it off, lol.

~T~

Where it says "Current Line" those are actually the closing lines (might have missed one or two final updates), as I update during the week and then after the games have started. And you're right, I actually sleep better on Friday night before the actual games than Saturday night after a full day of football and then getting ready for Sunday's new lines, lol.

 

[thecruncher]

Oh, and not all of the 2nd half plays I made are listed there, I only did two screen captures -- but they are certainly included in the weekly and season totals.

Ack, I also just noticed that 1.5 unit plays went 2-1, with NW losing, just updated that on my win %s, where it wasn't reflected.

 

[tmader7]

Ok, OMG! Not gonna hash through all that, I think you answered my question with the forward. The thing is, for the first week this season, you're all over most of my games, but you played them Sunday and I haven't pulled the trigger on anything yet. So that's why I asked the question. The ones we're in total agreement, gonna go ahead and tease 6 pts to get back in line, even though I HATE teasers. The ones the line is not moving much, SU will be the play. Scares me that we're on the same mag, not page, entire mag! LOL and GL my friend, I hope you win the football money.

~T~ OK, where the hell is GS to chime in???

 

[Toasted8CU]

Any chance we can get a picture of your market chart for games Tuesday-Friday early? I love comparing my numbers with yours early. Even if you post Tuesday games on Monday and Wednesday games on Tuesday....etc

BOL, appreciate your knowledge

 

[thecruncher]

Any chance we can get a picture of your market chart for games Tuesday-Friday early? I love comparing my numbers with yours early. Even if you post Tuesday games on Monday and Wednesday games on Tuesday....etc

BOL, appreciate your knowledge

Yeah, I could do that after the totals for those games come out and any plays I have are in.

 

[thecruncher]

Oh shit, they're coming even as I type this, lol. Nothing I like on the totals for Tuesday.

 

[thecruncher]

 

[thecruncher]

BOL total on the BGSU/AKR game now matches my line of 58.5, that didn't take long, lol. That much early movement means this one will probably go higher. People seem to like the Over in BGSU games -- they play really fast, but their offense is really bad.

 

[thecruncher]

BM beating BOL to the punch on some lines.

1/2 Unit: BUFF @ OHIO Over 55.5
1/2 Unit: NIU @ BALL Over 65.7

These will both go up.

 

[thecruncher]

1.5 Units: CLEM @ WAKE Under 44

 

[Numbersguru]

BG is my play even though Akron should be getting starting QB Pohl back. And I'm with you on Toledo.

 

[thecruncher]

BM beating BOL to the punch on some lines.

1/2 Unit: BUFF @ OHIO Over 55.5
1/2 Unit: NIU @ BALL Over 65.7

These will both go up.

Whoops, posted my line instead of actual line on the NIU @ BALL total -- it opened at 60, it was 1/2 Unit Over 60.

 

[thecruncher]

Derrius Vick will be QBing for OHIO this week, that alone is pretty much responsible for the value on the Over that I'm showing. He's hugely better than any other QB on their team, and BUFF has one of the worst pass defenses in FBS. So far quiet on the market.

 

[thecruncher]

Adding a 1/2 Unit on OHIO -3. Vick's return increases the value. This line is starting to creep up off of 3.

 

[thecruncher]

Adding for 3/5th unit: PSU -5 @ IND

I don't think my deductions to IND for their complete lack of a QB after losing their top two reflect how completely non-existent their passing game is now. Surprisingly, they've still been able to run the ball well even with good defenses knowing what's coming. That's how truly good the IND run game is. But this is Penn State, who has a complete defense, and my 2nd ranked run defense. IND's defense is terrible, even PSU should score some points on them, and PSU's offense can look atrocious much, if not all of the time.

 

[Chevyjsport]

So with Holliday out for season what's the backup look like and playing Oregon state -8 I enjoy reading your write ups I ave games I'm interested in and would appreciate your input

 

[Chevyjsport]

Iowa -1
Lsu + 7
west Virginia -3
michigan state -3

 

[daboyzinblue]

You are as sharp as they come. Just curios what book do you use? My shitty ass books don't put out the #'s till late sunday or even monday at times.