The Sports Cruncher's Week #11 NCAA Football Thread

thecruncher · Nov 2, 2014

Hey M-Man, you could be right about IOWA, but I still think the line has some over-reaction to each team's last game. Iowa showing improvement while MINN is def. starting to not look as strong as I rated them earlier.

TXST was lucky to beat New Mexico State last week, NMSU outgained them pretty good, but had turnovers and a blocked punt TD go against them. So I def. like GASO's tough run game in this match-up.

Kenny Hill suspended for A&M, and his replacement got outplayed by ULM's QB in that game. Did you see that box? ULM outgained TA&M 347-243. This game can easily go the way of the ALA/TA&M game.

I really like OKLA in this spot, too. I think BAY is still over-rated.

USU's 4th string QB got the job done, only one incomplete pass!

thecruncher · Nov 2, 2014

Looks like I missed getting UVA at +21.5, too. Other than that, just a couple of half points on non-key numbers, so not too bad overall.

MIDWEST_MAN · Nov 2, 2014

I think Georgia Southern could be like Auburn was last year - Vegas keeps underrating them over and over...I am going to keep betting on them until I see a crazy number. Didn't bet them last week because i didn't have enough time to break games down....why do I let work get in the way of my betting?!

thecruncher · Nov 2, 2014

Adding for 1/2 Unit: TOL -12.5 @ KENT

METFAN · Nov 2, 2014

AUBURN NOW -21// Do you like them @that price?

thecruncher · Nov 2, 2014

METFAN said:
AUBURN NOW -21// Do you like them @that price?

Any price, it's a projected massacre.

Numbersguru · Nov 2, 2014

All Day Long, Will be covered in first Quarter Probably.

Numbersguru · Nov 2, 2014

My line for this one is 23.5 so way under value.

Numbersguru · Nov 2, 2014

I like Iowa as well and have a line for them of -7.5 so value against the posted spread.

Numbersguru · Nov 2, 2014

I agree Midwest this line should be every bit of 20-24.

Numbersguru · Nov 2, 2014

I know that Minne is at home. But these teams are going in opposite directions. Iowa defense and offense is now taking off. The line I have for this game is Iowa -7.5. I think they win by 10-14. But good luck on your numbers Cruncher.

Numbersguru · Nov 2, 2014

Nice call on Akron. I think BG QB injured last game. May want to check it out further.

thecruncher · Nov 2, 2014

Numbersguru said:
I know that Minne is at home. But these teams are going in opposite directions. Iowa defense and offense is now taking off. The line I have for this game is Iowa -7.5. I think they win by 10-14. But good luck on your numbers Cruncher.

Market is agreeing with you early, which is a good sign for you, lol. Just gonna' have to ride it out at this point. I've toyed with in-season trends before system wide, but have backed off of that until I have to time to rebuild something more accurate.

Iowa certainly had a good game last time out, but not the game before at Maryland.

indiana · Nov 3, 2014

Mr./C...........solid and smart as normal...........BOL this week with your action.........indy

tmader7 · Nov 3, 2014

Cruncher, how about Duke at -3+. Realize folks are gonna think letdown after the OT win at Pitt, but the paper here in Charlotte raves about their focus right now, just need the D to step a little better. Thx

~T~

thecruncher · Nov 3, 2014

tmader7 said:
Cruncher, how about Duke at -3+. Realize folks are gonna think letdown after the OT win at Pitt, but the paper here in Charlotte raves about their focus right now, just need the D to step a little better. Thx

~T~

Duke's running game is getting very good, but their passing game has had only one good game this year -- last week at PITT. Their run defense is a little below average, which will be a liability against SYR. SYR has become very hard to predict. Last week they had a terrible game on the ground, but passed the ball pretty well against NC State, whose pass defense is usually better than their run defense. SYR's run defense has been decent, and their pass defense has had 3 of their best 4 outings in their last 3 games. If both coaches are smart (and you can never count on that), they'll run the ball a lot in this game, and I project the final score almost even, which means I lean SYR with the home field.

tmader7 · Nov 3, 2014

I highly value your opinion, wouldn't have asked if I didn't. But losing to NCState at home??? Jeezus, State is BAAAAAAAD, that was their first ACC win in like, 3 years, lol. Again, thanks.

~T~

METFAN · Nov 3, 2014

thecruncher said:
Any price, it's a projected massacre.

THANK YOU..Will hit the first half as welll..

ANY OPINION ON WEST VA -4 @ TEXAS..Even off the tough loss , they would seem to have too much fire power for the Longhorns

thecruncher · Nov 3, 2014

METFAN said:
THANK YOU..Will hit the first half as welll..

ANY OPINION ON WEST VA -4 @ TEXAS..Even off the tough loss , they would seem to have too much fire power for the Longhorns

I only project WVU to win by a couple of points, so not surprised to see the line come down here.

thecruncher · Nov 3, 2014

Time for the week #10 recaps. Here are the final scores in the market game:

On side lines where the market moved 2+ points away from my projected lines, I was the winner versus the market 4-2 on the actual game results. On totals I lost 1-2. Overall my lines were 67 points better than the opening lines versus the closing lines on sides, and 73.5 points better on totals.