Trace Adams Sunday Play with Analysis
For Sunday night in the NFL, my Triple Your Wager 3000♦ Winner is the visiting Dallas Cowboys as the underdog against the Atlanta Falcons. At the time I release this selection, the Cowboys are +3' point dogs in Atlanta this Sunday night.
Now if you happened to watch DeMarco's video report a couple of weeks ago, you know he and I have butted heads many, many times over the past 20 years regarding the value of buying the half point. He's a believer; I'm generally not. But for this game, I can see the rationale in doing so with Dallas. First, the Cowboys were getting +4 earlier on Saturday, but as I put above, it's now down to +3'. Second, back in week two, I had a double your wager 2000♦ play on the Bengals -7 against Cleveland and ended up with a push because the Browns got a late score with the backdoor. DeMarco and I will never fully see eye to eye on the merits of buying the hook, but in this particular game I'm buying it (up to +4) to protect the push just in case and it only costs -120 versus -110.
Now if you happen to get Dallas at +4 on your own, there's no need to buy the hook as your already protected. I don't think the line goes down to 3. Even if it did, you're protected automatically for a push at 3 in a game decided by a field goal. At 3 1/2 is the only number I'm recommending you buy up the 1/2 point on Dallas.
Hard to find the spot the 7-0 Falcons stumble, but tonight could very well be the night. Let's face it, at 3-4 straight up the Cowboys have been a disappointment this season. There is plenty of talent on this team, and they are capable of playing with anyone - just as the Super Bowl winning Giants who saw a 23-0 lead evaporate last weekend before hanging on for the 29-24 win.
No doubt the 7-0 straight up mark, and the 5-2 spread mark Mike Smith's team totes in to the Georgia Dome bears some respect, but the Falcons wins have come against some pretty crappy teams - Chiefs, Panthers, Raiders to name a few. It is a bit of a step-up here for Atlanta, and this is precisely the type of game that has given the Falcons problems in the past.
Atlanta's 3 home wins have all been nip-and-tuck battles, 27-21 escape versus Denver, 30-28 last minute win over Carolina, and a 23-20 escape versus Oakland. The Falcons do have a division rivalry game up next in New Orleans, so any lack of focus against the underachieving Pokes could put their perfect season in jeopardy.
I am counting on it.