The Cruncher's NCAA Week #13 Plays Thread

[thecruncher]

Adding for 1 Unit: KU @ OKLA Over 53

Oklahoma's passing game has been well below average over their last 3, but their run game is still quite good. Kansas' passing game has been much improved over their last 5 games, even against teams with better pass defenses than Oklahoma's. Kansas could put enough pressure on the scoreboard to motivate Oklahoma into late scoring here (though I do project a healthy Oklahoma win). Either way, Oklahoma is a squad in need of moral victories on the scoreboard, regardless of the opponent.

 

[thecruncher]

Someone in Toledo in another thread said the wind is 20-30 mph. Just checked weather.com which confirmed it. Anything 20+ affects the passing and kicking game.

1 Unit: BGSU @ TOL Under 60.5 (-107 5D)

 

[thecruncher]

Adding for 1 Unit: SMU +28 @ UCF

UCF doesn't have a good running game, decreasing the chance of their padding a lead late in this one.

 

[thecruncher]

Adding for 1 Unit: Southern Alabama +25.5 @ South Carolina

SOAL will be without starting QB Bridge again, but Sophomore Vaughn did a pretty good job last week -- better than the other guy SOAL has tried as a backup. I really don't show SOAL being that out-manned in the trenches/running game here.

 

[thecruncher]

I'm liking the look of this weather in Toledo now that the game's on.

 

[thecruncher]

Nothing like having the extra point blocked when you took the -6.5 spread, lol. On the plus side, it reduces the chance of an Under killing OT, lol.

Toledo dominating so far, hopefully they can continue to shut down BG's offense.

 

[thecruncher]

Looks like BG's best chance is going to be through the air tonight. If we can get to halftime w/ not too much scoring might jump off the game Under with a 2nd half Over, depending on the numbers. The wind is certainly not having as much of an effect I'd like, right now. Damn, nice 3rd and 10 run by BG. BG has nothing doing up the middle, but they're wisely mostly staying away from it now.

 

[thecruncher]

Mancz out at C for TOL means TOL not having any success up the middle either.

 

[theDonger]

Looks like BG's best chance is going to be through the air tonight. If we can get to halftime w/ not too much scoring might jump off the game Under with a 2nd half Over, depending on the numbers. The wind is certainly not having as much of an effect I'd like, right now. Damn, nice 3rd and 10 run by BG. BG has nothing doing up the middle, but they're wisely mostly staying away from it now.

My book had the 2h o28.. but o50.5 in-game.. Hoping for a middle here and that Toledo wins 2H 21-10

 

[thecruncher]

Had to take my boy to dinner so just lettin' it ride. The total yards in the first half didn't suggest over 28 points in the second half. Hopefully you get your middle with Toledo getting all of the points, lol.

 

[thecruncher]

Bumping UNM @ CSU Over 64.5 up to a full unit play.

 

[thecruncher]

Adding for 1 Unit: MD @ MICH Over 42

Michigan should have enough success on the ground to open up the occasional good passing opportunity. Maryland will lean heavily on the pass, as it's by far what they are better at, and the best way to attack Michigan's defense as well.

 

[thecruncher]

Sheesh, Toledo should have won by a larger margin, but wins are wins.

 

[tennbigcountry]

Looks like a service play release on the MIZZ @ TENN Over. This is foolhardiness. I'll take another unit on the now Under 48.5, to set up for a middle when this number drops to 45 by game time.

Tennessee had their first really above average passing game of the season against Kentucky last week. That's it, the one and only, Sure Kentucky has had good pass defense numbers, but Missouri has a much better defense over all. I have Tennessee as a top 20 defense now as well. The offenses have no match up advantages in this game, none. Both of these teams games last week ended up playing to a higher total of points than they would, on average.

This is not to try to prove anyone right or wrong as I respect and value your picks and analysis. I just wanted to mention a few things about this game and Tennessee as I'm a die hard Vols fan. Since Worley's injury, a blessing in disguise, the Vols offense has been a new animal. They actually had more passing yards in their second to last game than they had against Kentucky, granted that was against a defense that is hardly SEC caliber in South Carolina. Against UK they pulled Dobbs and the starters at the end of the third quarter, so they would have had more. Aside from only allowing 16 pts to Kentucky, the Vols have allowed 42, 34, and 34 in their previous 3. Over the last three games with Josh Dobbs at QB( only two he started and only played a full game in one of them) Tennessee has averaged just under 40 points per game (38.3) and 47.5 points in the last two. I don't think Mizzou's offense is very consistent but they can get hot. One other thing is Tennessee's All-SEC Linebacker A.J. Johnson will likely be out due to suspension. I'm not saying your analysis is wrong because it very well may be correct, I just wanted to throw in my two cents. GL. Also, if you don't mind, I'd like to get your analysis on this game. I am a little surprised by Tennessee being a 3-3.5 point favorite even though they're at home, especially considering how well Missouri has played on the road. I know Tennessee has been on the rise since Dobbs has taking over at QB and of course I hope Tennessee wins, but I'm not sure about them beating Missouri. Thanks.

 

[thecruncher]

Thanks for stopping by!

I agree TENN's offense has been better since Worley went out -- I noticed that almost right away and gave them no deductions to their offense as a result. TENN has had some offensive success throughout the season against pretty good defenses, actually. In their favor they had a really good game running the ball against ALA, and a really good game throwing the ball last week versus Kentucky. That being said, their defense is still a better unit than their offense. I rank their offense 41st best, and their defense 19th best.

Missouri is even more lopsided in the difference between their offense and defense, (63rd and 7th). Missouri is going to want to run as much as possible in this contest, as their run offense is decent. Their passing offense has been quite poor and has not done well against the SEC competition. Even against an offense minded team like South Carolina (to contrast with Tennessee's game) Missouri played them to a 21-20 final.

Like many totals, this one could come down to where on the field any turnovers take place. Barring bad luck in that department, I have this game playing out in the 23-20 range with Missouri getting another road win on the strength of a more successful run game, given the match ups.

 

[zombiestoner]

3/5th Unit: UCLA -3 vs USC (-115)

Hi Crusher

Another great day of MACtion comes to an end.

A lot of people are taking the points with USC. I notice you have them pretty low in your power ratings. IMO USC are underrated due their inability finish well in games which has been a little random rather than systematic.

Conversely I think UCLA are a little overrated beating Texas when they sucked and nearly losing to a weak Colorado team but winning in OT.

I have USC by 8-10pts in this and I am usually pretty close to your lines but there is a big gap in this one. What am I missing??

 

[OddsArtist]

Really appreciate all the work you do. Was wondering if you created the spreadsheet you use. It looks great.. I would love to have something like that.

 

[palehose1]

3 Units: WIS -8.5 @ IOWA

Question this line is -10 now, still okay ? Or in your opinion buy it to 9.5 to get off Key of 10 Thanks

 

[thecruncher]

Hi Crusher

Another great day of MACtion comes to an end.

A lot of people are taking the points with USC. I notice you have them pretty low in your power ratings. IMO USC are underrated due their inability finish well in games which has been a little random rather than systematic.

Conversely I think UCLA are a little overrated beating Texas when they sucked and nearly losing to a weak Colorado team but winning in OT.

I have USC by 8-10pts in this and I am usually pretty close to your lines but there is a big gap in this one. What am I missing??

Across all 4 categories of run and pass offense/defense I show UCLA being at least a little bit better than USC. There aren't any overwhelming mismatches, but the strongest I project is UCLA's run offense versus USC's run defense. In their last 5 UCLA's run offense has been very good. Really, for the whole season, other than a slow start in week's #1 and #2, UCLA's run offense has been quite good. They had only one down game after those first couple of games, where a good Utah defense limited UCLA to only 2.7 ypc in that game. Take out that game and the first two games of the season and UCLA has averaged 5.6 ypc in their other games, which is really good. For USC, other than two really good games of run defense against the Arizona schools, they've been just a little better than average (on the whole they've been okay, as the game against BC skews their stats as it's their only really bad game of run defense). So I guess to look at it more closely now, there is a chance that USC can match UCLA in the running game, but the odds favor UCLA having a better day on the ground than USC.

USC's passing game has been really good lately, but they've faced a below average schedule of pass defenses during this run (even Utah's pass defense isn't that great). UCLA has the best pass defense that USC has faced since week #2 against Stanford, where they didn't have a great game through the air (though they did have a higher ypp than STAN usually allows. Not a single time this season has the UCLA pass defense allowed a team to throw for their usual yards per pass average, and nobody came within 4/10th of a yard of doing it, either.

UCLA had a couple of linemen injured fairly early in the game against COLO, I believe, and that seemed to affect their play calling the rest of the game.

 

[thecruncher]

Really appreciate all the work you do. Was wondering if you created the spreadsheet you use. It looks great.. I would love to have something like that.

Yeah, the first version of it I made about 15 years ago. I restarted what has become the current version about 10 years ago. It was NFL only until a few years ago.