My Mac lines:
| Road | Home | Opening Spread | Current Spread | My Spread | Market Correction vs. My Line | Current Spread Value by % of Total | Value on Fav or Dog | Opening Total | Current Total | My Total | Market Correction vs. My Line | Current Total Value by Percent | Value on Over or Under |
| MASS | AKR | -7 | -7 | -7.3 | 0.0 | -0.5% | Fav | 46 | 47 | 51.8 | 1.0 | 10.2% | Ovr |
| NIU | OHIO | 2.5 | 1 | -6.9 | 1.5 | 14.5% | Dog | 49.5 | 52 | 54.5 | 2.5 | 4.8% | Ovr |
| BGSU | TOL | 0 | 0 | -13.9 | 0.0 | -22.2% | 0 | 0 | 62.5 | 0.0 | |||
| KENT | BUFF | -7 | -7 | -5.9 | 0.0 | 2.4% | Dog | 49.5 | 45 | 46.5 | 3.0 | 3.4% | Ovr |
Weather deductions to the totals of 3, 2, 3 and 7 points, respectively.
Akron is -8 now.
I do have injury deductions to MASS for their QB being out, and TOL, for their QB injuries. Still looks like there will be good value on Toledo, as I don't anticipate them opening up as double digit faves, but you never know.
Akron is -8 now.
I do have injury deductions to MASS for their QB being out, and TOL, for their QB injuries. Still looks like there will be good value on Toledo, as I don't anticipate them opening up as double digit faves, but you never know.
I think I'll put that middle buy back in now for the NIU @ OHIO game. I have an Over 48.5, and then added an Over 47 to set up a middle, which I'll take with the Under 52.5 available at BOL now. 53 and 54 deadish numbers, while 52 can come into play, so it's a good spot to take a stand.
Shit. There goes that play.
There's the slightest bit of CRLM (that's Cruncher Reverse Line Movement) with Ga State now catching 41. The Air Force/SDSU line has also moved a half to 50, and that was my favorite weekday play this week. Who is even playing these games on Monday and Tuesday...besides you, of course?
Cal's gonna win the Big Game. I'm an alum but only through graduate school (all ten years of it) so that shouldn't cloud my perspective too much. We'll see though.
y'know...I suddenly remembered that the line opened at 6. It's now 5'. But everywhere I know to look shows Stanford as a public play. You reckon I'm going to get another 1/2 to 1 1/2 points if I wait for this line to rebound or is the so-called sharp money going to be enough to either maintain or depress this line? Sometimes, I swear it was easier before I started worrying so much about the line and retained focus solely on the game!
With a spread as high as 40, a 1/2 or full point of line movement isn't much to worry about. Only gonna be a touch sucky if hits 7 touchdowns on 42. If my numbers show baseline value on the favorite at or beyond a key number above the opening spread (like I show on Ohio State -- my baseline is -36, the opener has come from -30 to -34.5), it will gravitate towards the key number fairly strongly almost every time.
Georgia State is an awful defensive team, they tackle horribly and let opponent's score almost any time they get even a whiff of the goal line. On the other hand, Clemson's offense is pretty awful without Watson at QB. Their run numbers were still actually pretty bad when Watson QB'd.
In Clemson's only blowout win this year, against NCST, they ran the ball on 10% more of their plays than they did in their other games, and used a second more of play clock per play.
Georgia State won't be able to run the ball against Clemson. Their only chance for any offensive success will be through the air, where they actually have an above average passing game, especially if you throw out the terrible weather game versus App State. That being said, they haven't faced a defense anywhere near as complete as Clemson, so they rate to struggle offensively, period.
Adding for 1/2 Unit: TOL -6.5 vs BGSU (-105 5D)
No QB for Toledo? No worries! Toledo having a converted WR taking their snaps doesn't change their run-heavy offense much, heck it might even make their run game better. Toledo definitely has an advantage in the run match ups in this game. BGSU has had success stopping the run lately...against bad running teams. When looking at the correlation of yards per rush they give up versus a team's averages it's almost 100% -- they can clamp down on bad running teams, while good running teams have their way offensively.
If the field is at all slick from the freezing weather and snow, then one cut slants and crosses will be the best patterns to run, and not so much the WR screens that BGSU and some of these other MAC teams like to run (if the memory of watching all of these mid-week MAC games serves). The WR screens require a lot of instant cuts and jukes right when you catch the ball, which isn't easy on a slick field. It seems to me that when the field is slick you want to catch the ball in stride after already having made a single move, like I just mentioned. If you can make a defender slip from your one move you can have some wide open looks. I'll be interested to see what the passing games do in this game tonight. Experience generally counts for more when the weather is bad, which gives BGSU the advantage in the passing game, but I don't think it will be enough to get them the cover tonight. Toledo by 2 touchdowns.
No QB for Toledo? No worries! Toledo having a converted WR taking their snaps doesn't change their run-heavy offense much, heck it might even make their run game better. Toledo definitely has an advantage in the run match ups in this game. BGSU has had success stopping the run lately...against bad running teams. When looking at the correlation of yards per rush they give up versus a team's averages it's almost 100% -- they can clamp down on bad running teams, while good running teams have their way offensively.
If the field is at all slick from the freezing weather and snow, then one cut slants and crosses will be the best patterns to run, and not so much the WR screens that BGSU and some of these other MAC teams like to run (if the memory of watching all of these mid-week MAC games serves). The WR screens require a lot of instant cuts and jukes right when you catch the ball, which isn't easy on a slick field. It seems to me that when the field is slick you want to catch the ball in stride after already having made a single move, like I just mentioned. If you can make a defender slip from your one move you can have some wide open looks. I'll be interested to see what the passing games do in this game tonight. Experience generally counts for more when the weather is bad, which gives BGSU the advantage in the passing game, but I don't think it will be enough to get them the cover tonight. Toledo by 2 touchdowns.
I have a feeling that BG has improved on defense more than they are given credit for. I know they have played some weak offensive teams of late. But my eyes tell me that BG is very much improved on that side of the ball. When you combine that with Toledo's bad defense that has caused them to play in closer games than expected (2-8 ATS) I think it's the ingredients for a BG cover. I played against BG last week as faves. I love them here as nearly TD dogs. Good luck
Week 12 Recap
Just another week of crushing the market (+94.5 points against closing lines on all plays made) while breaking even...sigh. It all came down to Florida snatching defeat from the jaws of victory against South Carolina (small consolation that Muschamp got his ass canned with this loss being the final straw) and Miami becoming afraid in the 2nd half against the apparently unbeatable FSU, with any one of numerous breaks going their way equaling a one point loss at worst and cover. Those were the two 2 unit losers on the week -- an 8.4 unit swing right there.
Just another week of crushing the market (+94.5 points against closing lines on all plays made) while breaking even...sigh. It all came down to Florida snatching defeat from the jaws of victory against South Carolina (small consolation that Muschamp got his ass canned with this loss being the final straw) and Miami becoming afraid in the 2nd half against the apparently unbeatable FSU, with any one of numerous breaks going their way equaling a one point loss at worst and cover. Those were the two 2 unit losers on the week -- an 8.4 unit swing right there.
Looks like a service play release on the MIZZ @ TENN Over. This is foolhardiness. I'll take another unit on the now Under 48.5, to set up for a middle when this number drops to 45 by game time.
Tennessee had their first really above average passing game of the season against Kentucky last week. That's it, the one and only, Sure Kentucky has had good pass defense numbers, but Missouri has a much better defense over all. I have Tennessee as a top 20 defense now as well. The offenses have no match up advantages in this game, none. Both of these teams games last week ended up playing to a higher total of points than they would, on average.
Tennessee had their first really above average passing game of the season against Kentucky last week. That's it, the one and only, Sure Kentucky has had good pass defense numbers, but Missouri has a much better defense over all. I have Tennessee as a top 20 defense now as well. The offenses have no match up advantages in this game, none. Both of these teams games last week ended up playing to a higher total of points than they would, on average.
I'm on Toledo -6.5 as well.
The Macon kid looks good I don't think they would have covered last week with their other 2 QB's.
I agree the weather should suit the Toledo run game more than BG.
Also BG is waiting on the title game so I'm picking they will want to get out of the game injury free as quickly as possible.
The Macon kid looks good I don't think they would have covered last week with their other 2 QB's.
I agree the weather should suit the Toledo run game more than BG.
Also BG is waiting on the title game so I'm picking they will want to get out of the game injury free as quickly as possible.
