I'd only ever buy on or off of 7 for 10 cents.
Wisconsin's running game is insanely good. I don't track historical data, but I'm guessing it has to be one of it the strongest run game of at least this century so far. On top of that they've probably had the best run defense in the country over the last 4 games, allowing an average of 66.5 run yards with opponent's running plays going for an average of -2.4 yards less than they usually gain. Their passing game is still bad, but teams are forced to commit extra defenders to stop the run, which creates some passing opportunities that Stave is getting better at completing. Wisconsin's pass defense has been lights out amazing over their last 4 games as well, with opponent's averaging 3 yards less per pass than they usually gain.
Iowa's run defense started off the season pretty good, but has tailed off considerably, allowing opponent's to gain .7 yards more per carry than they usually gain in their last 5 games. Yes, Iowa has had a couple of really good passing games in their last few, but only one of those two came against a team with a decent pass defense, NW. Iowa's pass defense has been quite good this season, which will mostly be wasted in this match up, other than perhaps allowing them to have more confidence in the one on one coverage they're going to have to play for much of this game.
Over these last 4 Wisconsin has outscored their opponent's 45.5 -- 11.75. My TSC Power Ratings have 3 of these opponents with higher rankings than Iowa. I project this games final score to be 41 - 12. So yes, yes, I still see a ton of value in this line, easily worth a 2 unit play. It will take not just a moderate, but a strong reversal of the way that Wisconsin has been playing in all facets of the game for them not to win by double digits here.
0.6 unit separates it from the 0.5 unit plays (by very little, monetarily, I realize, lol) by saying "Hey, I'm not just a degenerate mid-week action play, and I feel somewhat stronger than the sometimes slim value 0.5 unit plays, yet for whatever reason I don't feel like being a full unit play, as that would apparently reduce my chances of winning at really nice clip!"
Such is the sadness of this last month. Poor luck on the bigger unit plays partly to blame, lately, and honestly just feels like poor luck on a lot of the plays across the board as well, though I'm not sure how much of that is just bias from noticing the bad luck more than the good. When I used to do NFL I kept track of my luck by logging turnovers for games in which I had a side play, and total yards for total plays (to get a gauge on if the final score should've been in the ball park using yards to points conversion averages). My NFL spreadsheet was actually wayyyy more detailed than what I do for college. I may get back into NFL next season, I don't know. It depends on if and where I set myself up to post lines, picks, power ratings and blog/write ups. I honestly want to do a lot more than I do, but I need compensation as well, as it's been taking quite a bit of time away from poker, and not adding enough back to make up for it. I've done straight up touting before, but I don't like it, because I'm really about the line making and market beating much more than just picking winners. I'll probably approach some of the more well known websites to see if they'd be interested in partnering or me contributing in some way, and if nothing pans out there, then going back to my own blog and service of some sort.
I've thought about trying to set something up to handicap hoops, but the wife already hates the time and weekends I put into football. In my fantasy where I'm single and childless and live in a large house in the hills outside of Vegas I handicap all sports, in between sessions of poker, yoga and near nightly entertaining of high rollers and beautiful women. Surely I'm not the only sports bettor with that fantasy, lol.
Okay, I guess I'll step gingerly into the trap of CRLM (Cruncher Reverse Line Movement, as Big Dipper coined it, lol).
Adding for 1/2 Unit: KSU +3 @ WVU (-115)
I think this is a good match up for KSU. TCU spanked them last game because of Boykin's duel threat as a runner. No such worries against Trickett tonight. KSU really doesn't have a very good run game, and they abandoned it against TCU to good affect, they had a really nice passing game in the loss because of two 70+ yard TD passes that Waters threw. WVU's run offense isn't that great either, but KSU has a much better run defense than WVU has. This sets up WVU to become more predictable on obvious passing downs or if trailing later in the game. When they were in that situation against Texas their last game, Texas got really good pressure on Trickett, forcing him into short completions while sacking him three times.
Adding for 1/2 Unit: KSU +3 @ WVU (-115)
I think this is a good match up for KSU. TCU spanked them last game because of Boykin's duel threat as a runner. No such worries against Trickett tonight. KSU really doesn't have a very good run game, and they abandoned it against TCU to good affect, they had a really nice passing game in the loss because of two 70+ yard TD passes that Waters threw. WVU's run offense isn't that great either, but KSU has a much better run defense than WVU has. This sets up WVU to become more predictable on obvious passing downs or if trailing later in the game. When they were in that situation against Texas their last game, Texas got really good pressure on Trickett, forcing him into short completions while sacking him three times.
That's why I'm divorced, LOL. I LOVE VEGAS, there's something about hitting the tables and the sportsbook that nothing else can even remotely compete with it. The Superbowl or March Madness, either one, you'll never experience anything like it. It's almost like religion, got to have it, lol. GL my friend, I'll continue on my own, lone wolf.
~T~
On the new match-up sheets, the best and worst against works like this. For rushing, the best is the highest rated (in that opponent's specific category) team in which a team either ran or defended the run at .65 yards better than the other team usually defends or runs the ball per play for. So it's not necessarily the best overall performance a team has had in that category, it's just used to demonstrate the caliber of opposition a team can either do well or poorly against. For passing the cut off is 1.06 yards better or worse than the opponent's averages.
