I'm not worried about the Marshall line. If sharp money liked UAB in this game the line would have moved down from 20 like it did in the BC @ FSU game, which has gone from -20.5 to -17. The fear of taking Marshall in this game, I suppose, is that UAB will do enough offensively to stay within the number. There's certainly no reason to think that UAB's defense will stop Marshall from doing what they do. When a team is projected to have more than 8 yards per pass and 6 yards per carry, I mean, sheesh, Marshall may not punt until the 4th quarter of this one. Yes, everyone knows that Marshall has had a soft schedule, but still, not a single time this year have they had a game where a team was able to limit Marshall's pass or run to a significant amount below Marshall's averages (in the new match up sheets I made, Marshall has no "worst" qualifying games passing or running the ball).
But can UAB really score enough to stay within 20 points? Marshall has a pretty average run defense. Given the level of competition they've played it's slightly below average. The problem is, Marshall scores so many points against you that like it or not you're forced to go to the air to save clock if you're seriously trying to make up ground before the game ends. And that what do you find? Marshall has a really good pass defense. Not only that, they've had their best games defending the pass versus the statistically better pass teams they've faced. They held Old Dominion to 3.4 ypp and Rice to 4.3 ypp, and both of those teams average 8 yards per pass on the season! Marshall hasn't played a top 40 passing team, it's true, but I rate UAB's pass offense to be pretty close to that of ODU, somewhere in the upper 50s best. ODU's ranks slightly higher, but UAB hasn't had their starting QB play in every game because of injuries.
Marshall has an average margin of victory of 30 points this year. Considering that UAB's defense is one of the weaker ones they've faced this year, I don't think the final score in this game will stray too far from that. If UAB does happen to have more offfensive success than projected, the Over bet I made in this game works as a bit of a hedge. I think if UAB covers the game goes Over.
But can UAB really score enough to stay within 20 points? Marshall has a pretty average run defense. Given the level of competition they've played it's slightly below average. The problem is, Marshall scores so many points against you that like it or not you're forced to go to the air to save clock if you're seriously trying to make up ground before the game ends. And that what do you find? Marshall has a really good pass defense. Not only that, they've had their best games defending the pass versus the statistically better pass teams they've faced. They held Old Dominion to 3.4 ypp and Rice to 4.3 ypp, and both of those teams average 8 yards per pass on the season! Marshall hasn't played a top 40 passing team, it's true, but I rate UAB's pass offense to be pretty close to that of ODU, somewhere in the upper 50s best. ODU's ranks slightly higher, but UAB hasn't had their starting QB play in every game because of injuries.
Marshall has an average margin of victory of 30 points this year. Considering that UAB's defense is one of the weaker ones they've faced this year, I don't think the final score in this game will stray too far from that. If UAB does happen to have more offfensive success than projected, the Over bet I made in this game works as a bit of a hedge. I think if UAB covers the game goes Over.
I'll also add that UAB has run the ball on around 65% of their plays this year, which is much higher than the average team. A small part of that is due to limiting the passing game when starting QB Clements missed time against Arkansas (they ran on 70% of their plays that game). When trailing, like they did last week game against LT, they passed 49% of the time, so I'd expect them to be around 40% pass plays in this game, as they'll still want to run when they can.
Not yet, I have to improve and re-implement in-season trends this morning before posting lines. You can see how recent performances by UNC and TXST continued into last night's games, and I'm not happy about not judging that well enough in my lines. I'm also going to tinker with pass yards projections as well. Sometime today before the games I'll post the lines.
The "Trending" stats I added show the correlation of a team's performance in the given category with the weeks of the season. I'm now using them to massage the projections a little bit. Negative trends on the defensive side are good, meaning they are giving up less in those categories versus their opponent's averages. Key injuries are factored into the line.
Adding for 3/5th Unit: IND @ OSU Over 34 1st half
OSU could cover on their own.
Adding for 3/5th Unit: COLO @ ORE Over 36.5 1st half (-115)
Ditto for Oregon.
Adding for 3/5th Unit: COLO @ ORE Over 72 (-103 5D)
Just in case there is only 35 points scored in the first half, lol.
Oregon has averaged 48.4 over their last 5, and they've faced some really good defenses in that stretch. Even with a couple of new offensive injuries, Oregon should be able to name their price in this one. Colorado has a slightly fast, not terrible offense. They've certainly gained plenty of yards and scored points against PAC12 defenses better than Oregon's. Colorado should get in the ball park of 20 points, they've been a pesky unit to shut down, and Oregon's defense hasn't shown the ability, and in this game late probably not the desire to do so.
OSU could cover on their own.
Adding for 3/5th Unit: COLO @ ORE Over 36.5 1st half (-115)
Ditto for Oregon.
Adding for 3/5th Unit: COLO @ ORE Over 72 (-103 5D)
Just in case there is only 35 points scored in the first half, lol.
Oregon has averaged 48.4 over their last 5, and they've faced some really good defenses in that stretch. Even with a couple of new offensive injuries, Oregon should be able to name their price in this one. Colorado has a slightly fast, not terrible offense. They've certainly gained plenty of yards and scored points against PAC12 defenses better than Oregon's. Colorado should get in the ball park of 20 points, they've been a pesky unit to shut down, and Oregon's defense hasn't shown the ability, and in this game late probably not the desire to do so.
