Like that Purdue play....N.W. Letdown possibly.
Good luck!
Good luck!
Yeah, I think Purdue's superior run game gets the W. I guess I should have anticipated some over-valuing of NW after their win against the now defenseless Notre Dame.
Not much I love on sides this week (as I end up with 21 plays, lol -- Just not much 1 unit+ bets). Iowa's run defense was pretty good early in the year, but in their last 5 they've been below average, especially against teams that run well like Indiana and Minnesota. Hello Mel Gor! Iowa's pass offense lately has been a roller coaster, one week up, one week down. Looks like they're due for their down week.
Marshall is just completely crushing it. I don't even think the final score indication against Rice last week did them justice. Kicked myself after not betting this week like I did last week, even though my numbers showed plenty of value at -20. Not gonna' make the same mistake again this week against a poor UAB run defense that figures to get shredded here.
I do anticipate there being a lot of great totals this week, especially some Unders, judging by many of the match ups.
Tell me what you come up with for The Big Game if get a second. If momentum means much, California looks great. It's +6 right now but I'd like to know if your data suggest I might wait for a 1/2 or a whole point or if I should jump now.
I know you're busy. I know taking requests isn't your responsibility. I appreciate your work tremendously. When it comes to wanting to know about line movement it'd be self-detrimental not at least to ask your opinion.
I know you're busy. I know taking requests isn't your responsibility. I appreciate your work tremendously. When it comes to wanting to know about line movement it'd be self-detrimental not at least to ask your opinion.
I rate Georgia State's run defense the worst in FBS. Fortunately Clemson doesn't run the ball particularly well, I rank them 76th. Clemson doesn't rate to be up for this game after last week and facing this opponent. Georgia State's had an extra week to think about the impending massacre, but hopefully they've done something productive with their time that will lessen the carnage. I remember Clemson throwing the ball late in the game with a comfortable lead against Wake, but am hoping they're not too concerned about giving Stoudt game throws at this point in the season. You gotta' figure Clemson gets out to a healthy 21 or even 28 point 1st half lead, but then mails it in with a boring run game in the 2nd half, where GAST picks up a score for insurance and picks up the cover. If GAST gets a couple of breaks on defense they may not even need to put a single point on the board to cover, we've all seen that happen before, lol.
Clemson 38 -- GAST 10
Clemson 38 -- GAST 10
Don't be shy, brother, I like talking about games, lol.
Pure baseline value shows Stanford by 10, but throw in a letdown spot for Stanford and we're down to 7, meaning I, for one, don't see value here (depending on how much you weigh the potential Stanford let down).
I didn't watch any of the Utah - Stanford game, but looking at the numbers Stanford had arguably their best running game of the year, while doing a great job of limiting Utah's success on the ground. Other than the Oregon game, Stanford's run defense has been very good until you go all the way back to just a mediocre game in their first game against USC this year.
Stanford's passing game was terrible against Utah, though, even worse than the sloppy game against ND in week #6. That's a hardcore reversal of the very good games passing they had against the Oregon schools. CAL hasn't been terrible against the run, but they are really vulnerable against the pass -- so is this a good match up for CAL, as a good passing offense tends to dictate to the defense, while a poor one hasn't shown the ability execute consistently, giving a break to the defense. That being said, overall the STAN run game is only slightly better than their passing game, but I rate them both pretty dead near the middle of the pack in FBS. Their running game has just been more consistent, overall, only having that one really bad game in the poor conditions at Notre Dame.
Adding for 1 Unit: UNM +22 @ CSU
New Mexico hasn't lost by more than 11 since their week 3 games versus ASU. Their explosive run game has been ripping off huge touchdown runs on a regular basis lately. They do have a few injury concerns, but even taking that into account I project CSU to win by 16 points. CSU has a considerably weaker run defense than either USU or BSU, UNM's last two opponents. UNM should score enough to cover the # here.
New Mexico hasn't lost by more than 11 since their week 3 games versus ASU. Their explosive run game has been ripping off huge touchdown runs on a regular basis lately. They do have a few injury concerns, but even taking that into account I project CSU to win by 16 points. CSU has a considerably weaker run defense than either USU or BSU, UNM's last two opponents. UNM should score enough to cover the # here.
Sheesh, NIU @ OHIO total dropped even further down to 47 at BM. It's just a bit of freezing weather, people. I'm buying another unit on the Over 47 just to middle out of it tomorrow. This line has to rebound back into the 50's, passing a lot of key numbers.
I also like Ohio in this one, but didn't pull the trigger when the line got to +3.5 and even +4. I should've known it would get pounded at those numbers, lol. Well, it's starting to crawl back to 3. I'm just going to wait and see what I can get tomorrow, and if it drops again I'll just take some ML.
I also like Ohio in this one, but didn't pull the trigger when the line got to +3.5 and even +4. I should've known it would get pounded at those numbers, lol. Well, it's starting to crawl back to 3. I'm just going to wait and see what I can get tomorrow, and if it drops again I'll just take some ML.
Hi Crusher
I enjoy your threads and I like to play the MAC games
Curieous as to why do you like Ohio, I just took NIU.
Consider:
From your week 12 power ratings you have NIU at 42.1 and Ohio at 36.8
Ohio looked good against a very weak Buffalo [power rating 25] team and NIU squeaked home failing to cover [sadly for me] against a reasonable Toldeo team.
They have Stingily who plays like a man against boys and they are only giving up 2.5pts.
The only thing I don't like is the betting action 1) pushing through the 3 and 2) the reverse line move on the home team. There must be some pretty decent action on Ohio.
What are your thoughts??
Cheers
I enjoy your threads and I like to play the MAC games
Curieous as to why do you like Ohio, I just took NIU.
Consider:
From your week 12 power ratings you have NIU at 42.1 and Ohio at 36.8
Ohio looked good against a very weak Buffalo [power rating 25] team and NIU squeaked home failing to cover [sadly for me] against a reasonable Toldeo team.
They have Stingily who plays like a man against boys and they are only giving up 2.5pts.
The only thing I don't like is the betting action 1) pushing through the 3 and 2) the reverse line move on the home team. There must be some pretty decent action on Ohio.
What are your thoughts??
Cheers
I favor NEB by 12.5 in this one. Not sure how either team will respond emotionally to last week's losses, but I don't think it will effect them much. Minnesota's offense has been significantly better at home, as has their run defense. You've gotta' figure NEB worked really hard on stopping the run in practice this week, right? Barring unforeseen intangible angles, I like NEB to win by 13 or 14.
