The 2019 Phil Steele/Northcoast Picks, Record Documentation, Commentary and Discussion Thread

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NORTHCOAST:
3.5 Under 38 Steelers/Bengals
3 Falcons -3.5
3 Patriots -5.5

Top Opinions:
Over 47.5 Packers/49ers
Dolphins +10.5
Seahawks +1
Jets +3.5
Lions -4
Titans -3.5

Regular Opinions:
Under 46 Jets/Raiders
Saints -9.5

Play at your own risk after yesterday's disaster.
 

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As stated in post 581, I am leaving for an eight day vacation beginning tomorrow and unless something drastic changes, I won' be posting anything until

sometime late on Tuesday November 3.

If anyone wants to post the picks or say anything, feel free to do so.

I will be keeping track of picks the records and will update them when I return.

That said I am going to do my usual Tuesday recaps now and will add in the outcome of Monday's game to this week as well as doing what happens this week

when I return.

Before the recaps, a few comments and my opinion as to what to expect this week.

Well tomorrow if form holds Todd will admit that losing 1-2 day but accent the top play which won, and then go back a few years and tell

us the records of the top NFL picks for whatever time frame makes them look the best.

Oh yes I almost forgot, if things go as expected, Todd will give the very long term record of the Early Bird Play but will not admit that it lost this week.

Then we will get the usual never changing Monday Night pricing with the guarantee and without it.

Also on Tuesday be ready for the usual promotion for Thanksgiving that the prices we be the same as they were back in 1982 because they had a good week

then and have thus kept the price the same all of these years(whatever it is).

Imo the reality of the pricing has nothing to do with superstition and/or NC/Phil being a good Samaritan but rather the fact that whatever they charge is

all that people will pay.

Before I forget, I just noticed that Todd lied on the comp. phone earlier today, when he said that yesterday was the first losing Saturday in November.

Actually they went 4-5 last Saturday and lost 5.8 units.

If he meant first losing week for sides only, fine, but he didn't say that and imo it was deliberate and an attempt to mislead.

Recaps for Week Thirteen:


College sides and totals 1-8-1 with 25.2 units LOST.

Pros 1-2 with 3.1 units LOST.

Overall for the week 28.3 units were LOST or $2,830 at $100 a unit.

The cheapest cost of service for a non PS subscriber of the several mentioned to get all of the Late Phone Plays

including this Monday was $224.


Thus factoring the cost, it is seen that 30.54 units were LOST or $3,054 at $100 a unit.

Cumulative:

College 67-61-3 with 9.6 units LOST.

Pro 22-25-2 with 16.7 units LOST.

Overall 26.3 units have been LOST or MINUS $2,630 at $100 a unit.

The total cost of service so far is 28.56 units or $2,856.

Thus adding in the cost, it is seen that so far the non PS subscriber is MINUS 54.86 units or MINUS $5,486 at $100 a unit!!!

Overall including last week over the last almosyfour years, anyone who has played the Late Phones

according to scale and factoring in the cost of service, is DOWN A DOCUMENTED MINUS $23,034!!

Good luck everyone this week!!









Hmm-

 

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at this point in time the facts have to be that there are no more clients buying this garbage. who would? to me its just idiots blabbing on a phone service and making up a newsletter online which costs pennies. i don't see this operation going on much longer.
 

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Comp Plays

Early Bird (9-3) - Clemson -25

Early Bird College Total (1-2) - Utah under 49

Power Plays 4* (4-9) - Utah -28
 

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Northcoast Comp Plays

Early Bird (9-3) - Clemson -25

Early Bird College Total (1-2) - Utah under 49

Power Plays 4* (4-9) - Utah -28

Underdog POW (7-5-1) won 3 straight - Louisville +3.5

Economy Club #2 (9-4) - Miami Florida -9
 

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Thanksgiving Day Northcoast

3* Under 47 Dallas/Buffalo

Top Opinions
Under 38 Chicago/Detroit NFL (Marquee)
Over 58 Mississippi/Mississippi State (Marquee)
Mississippi +2.5

Reg Opinions
Buffalo +7
Chicago -3.5

Had to Pick
Atlanta +7
Over 48.5 New Orleans/Atlanta
 

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Northcoast Comp Plays

Early Bird (9-3) - Clemson -25

Early Bird College Total (1-2) - Utah under 49

Power Plays 4* (4-9) - Utah -28

Underdog POW (7-5-1) won 3 straight - Louisville +3.5

Economy Club #2 (9-4) - Miami Florida -9

NFL Totals (7-5) - Clevland under 40

Big Dog (7-6) - Old Dominion +9.5
 

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Every week during the season, Phil Steele will provide his top plays across the college football landscape.
Here is his best bets for the 14th full week of the college football season:

Season ATS record:
Steele record: 29-38-1 (1-4 last week)

Note: Lines displayed are Caesars Sportsbook lines as of Wednesday night.

Friday game:

Steele: Chuck Martin is 1-11 ATS in nonconference play the past three years but is 23-7 his past 30 MAC games and on a 12-3 ATS run the past 15 MAC games. Last week, the RedHawks had clinched the East, went through the motions against Akron and won by only three points. They have had nine days off since then and need to regain momentum before next week's MAC championship game. The past four weeks, Ball State has allowed 521 yards per game on defense. These two have faced four common opponents in MAC play, and while the RedHawks have outgained those four foes by 21 yards per game, the Cardinals have been outgained by 116 yards per game. Ball State is playing on a short week with just six days' rest, and the visitor is 9-3 straight up the past 12 meetings.
ATS pick: Miami (Ohio) +3.5

Saturday games:

Steele: Coach Manny Diaz called last week's loss to Florida International one of the worst losses in school history. Miami is 18-11 ATS its past 29 games as an away favorite, and last season Duke won in Miami for the first time since 1976. Duke has now lost five in a row by 26.6 points per game and is minus-175 yards per game in those five losses.
In the past four weeks, Duke has allowed 278 rushing yards per game and 5.8 YPC. The Hurricanes had won three in a row ATS before last week and will now be angry, focused and playing with revenge on their minds.
ATS pick: Miami -9

Steele: In 2017, Lane Kiffin had a bowl-caliber squad and went 10-3-1 ATS with the Owls' 11 wins by 26.6 PPG. This season, he has a bowl-caliber squad, and FAU is 7-3-1 ATS, with its eight outright wins by 21.3 PPG. FAU can wrap up a spot in the Conference USA title game with a victory here. Southern Miss has lost only four games this season, but those losses were by 24.5 PPG and none closer than 15 points. The Golden Eagles allow only 286 yards per game at home but 411 yards per game on the road. Oklahoma transfer quarterback Chris Robison has been much improved for the Owls, hitting 63% of his passes with a 19-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Mackey Finalist tight end Harrison Bryant leads the team with 890 receiving yards. Last week, they added Alabama transfer BJ Emmons, who rushed for 53 yards and should have a more significant impact this week.
ATS pick: Florida Atlantic -9

Steele: The records are similar, but that is about all that is close with this matchup. North Carolina could easily have double-digit wins right now, as its losses have been by 4.3 points per game with none greater than seven points. The Tar Heels came within a missed 2-point conversion of knocking off Clemson. NC State has suffered a myriad of injuries this season, especially on defense, and six of its losses were by an average of 24.8 PPG. Over the past four weeks, North Carolina is plus-99 yards per game, and the Wolfpack are minus-75 yards per game. Both teams are starting true freshman QBs, but Sam Howell for North Carolina is completing 59.4% of his passes with 32 touchdowns, while NC State's Devin Learyis hitting just 49.5% of his attempts, with seven TD passes.
ATS pick: North Carolina -9

Monday game:

Steele: The Black Knights are fresh off a bye and need to get to six wins. Last season, Army held Hawai'i to 362 total yards, and Army's defense allows just 324 yards per game this season. Traditionally, an option offense gets more potent as the season goes on, and Army is averaging 490 yards per game total offense and 5.9 yards per carry the past four weeks. Like Doug mentioned, Hawai'i has the Mountain West title game next week in Boise, Idaho, and in between those two tough games has to prepare for the option and cut blocking of Army. The Warriors yielded 353 rush yards and 6.9 YPC earlier this season against an option team in Air Force. The rest, situation and need to reach six wins all line up with Army.
ATS pick: Army +2.5

 

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Northcoast Comp Plays

Early Bird (9-3) - Clemson -25

Early Bird College Total (1-2) - Utah under 49

Power Plays 4* (4-9) - Utah -28

Underdog POW (7-5-1) won 3 straight - Louisville +3.5

Economy Club #2 (9-4) - Miami Florida -9

NFL Totals (7-5) - Clevland under 40

Big Dog (7-6) - Old Dominion +9.5

Big 12 POW (7-6) - Iowa State -5
 

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Friday Northcoast

3* Miami Ohio +3’
3* Memphis -12’
marquee Arkansas St

3* Over 52 Bowling Green / Buffalo
marquee Under 44’ Iowa / Nebraska
 

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Northcoast Comp Plays

Early Bird (9-3) - Clemson -25

Early Bird College Total (1-2) - Utah under 49

Power Plays 4* (4-9) - Utah -28

Underdog POW (7-5-1) won 3 straight - Louisville +3.5

Economy Club #2 (9-4) - Miami Florida -9

NFL Totals (7-5) - Cleveland under 40

Big Dog (7-6) - Old Dominion +9.5

Big 12 POW (7-6) - Iowa State -5

College POW (6-7) - North Carolina -10.5

College Total (8-5) - Wisconsin under 45
 

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Saturday Northcoast

5* Army +3
4* Navy -9
4* Utah St -11
3* Clemson -27
3* Miami -8’

4* Over 50 Rutgers / Penn St
4* Under 39 BYU / San Diego St
3* Under 50 Alabama / Auburn
3* Under 49’ Colorado / Utah
 

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Sunday Northcoast

3.5* NY Jets -3
3*. Indy +1
3*. Pittsburgh under 39’
Marquee: New England under 46’
 

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