The 2019 Phil Steele/Northcoast Picks, Record Documentation, Commentary and Discussion Thread

[savage1]

Mountain-you are right about closing lines, but historically NC usually goes by the line at time pick was given out.

If you check scores and odds, you can see that around 11:00AM when game was given out and for a while the line fluctuated between 79 1/2 and 80 and

was actually at 79 1/2 for a decent number of hours before moving higher.

My gut feeling is that Todd will say it was a win or a push but if you played it later, you might have even have lost.
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[mountain]

Mountain-you are right about closing lines, but historically NC usually goes by the line at time pick was given out.

If you check scores and odds, you can see that around 11:00AM when game was given out and for a while the line fluctuated between 79 1/2 and 80 and

was actually at 79 1/2 for a decent number of hours before moving higher.

My gut feeling is that Todd will say it was a win or a push but if you played it later, you might have even have lost.
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Pretty loose grading standard but I guess it gives them more flexibility to pad their numbers

 

[savage1]

Pretty loose grading standard but I guess it gives them more flexibility to pad their numbers

Of course it does.

To be honest, things have improved in the last few years in this regard.

At one time Phil/NC used to cherry pick the best line during the day which would make a push or win or a few times even turn a potential loss into

a push or even a win if the line fluctuated enough during the day.

As stated above though, Phil through Todd doesn't arrogantly do that anymore because they know damn well that that they will

catch some heat if they do, and the last thing they need now is more bad publicity.

 

[savage1]

Good morning, everyone.

I am very pleased with the "turnstile" attendance in this thread in its very first week(actually it was more like a half week) with all

who read and the several folks besides me who contributed to it-it exceeded all of my expectations.

While this thread got some attention at CM while it was there for four years, it was nothing like this.

Also, while it was a great week for the thread, it wasn't such a great week for NC, which so far this week has eked out a small profit with its Late

Phones but has got beaten up pretty badly with its Marquees and Comps.

What is ironic here is that if Phil/NC ever returned to their glory years way back in the early 2000's and won with their Late Phones, etc. and big

plays consistently, imo those plays would be sought after more than just about any well known professional capper or the lesser

known cappers in this Forum for the simple reason that they are a household name with the older generation as well

as with younger generations because they are so well known and have been around so long.

That said, imo it would take a lot of winning for folks to change their present opinions, which is ho hum, and their interest in seeing

what their picks are, which is more out of curiosity than anything else.

Back later on with the Early Bird Play and further commentary once Todd does the comp. line today.

Thanks again to all who are interested in reading and/or who are contributing/will contribute in the future, which for makes this thread worthwhile

worth hosting.
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[savage1]

Well the comp. message is out and imo it leaves a lot to be desired.

First of all Todd claims the comps went 4-4-1.

Maybe I made a mistake but I have them as 3-5-1:

Michigan -33- LOSER
Mississippi -6 LOSER
Nevada + 10 1/2 WINNER
South Carolina -10 LOSER
Oakland +2 PUSH
East Carolina +17 LOSER
Iowa -22 WINNER
OVER Texas 55 WINNER
Duke +33 LOSER

That comes out to 3-5-1-again though I do make mistakes, and if so, please let me know if I erred, which would make Todd's calculation to be correct.

Todd's tabulation of Late Phones is correct.

He calls the OVER 80 last night a push with no remarks that some could have won or lost it depending on what time and where they played it.

There is ZERO mention of Marquees which went 1-4 including 0-3 on Saturday.

There is no mention of the piss poor 1-4 day with the star rated releases in PowerSweep(1-5 counting the Underdog POW).

Both categories cited above would have been talked/bragged about if they had won.

Unfortunately this is the kind of Lies by Omission Recap that Phil Steele/NC have been noted for since inception 38 years ago.

ANYWAYS ENOUGH OF THAT-THE EARLY BIRD PLAY OF THE WEEK IS OREGON -23

ps I l almost forgot-I will leave it for you to decide the value of the "Dinner Special" for Monday.

Buy the star rated play on tonight's game for $30 and get back $40 in credit for future plays if it loses OR go to the website and purchase

star rated side play for $20 and/or the Marquees for $12 with no guarantee.

For me neither one of the choices above amount to even being close to the "soup or salad" choice you get at most restaurants.

My recap for the week will as always follow tomorrow on Tuesday after tonight's game is over.
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[savage1]

Correction-the comps. did go 4-4-1 and not 3-5-1, as Mississippi was a winner at PLUS 6 as the Underdog Play of the Week.

I am not sure if I wrote down incorrectly as MINUS 6 or Todd gave it out wrong as MINUS 6 but in the spirit of fair and honest reporting, it

was a winner.

 

[savage1]

Sorry if it seems like I am overdoing it today, but there is one other thing I should have mentioned in earlier posts.

It has to do with the pay $30 for the Monday Night Play and get back $40 in credit if it loses.

In all of the years I have followed them, the guarantee when they offer one for the Monday Night game has NEVER exceeded $20-for the last few years it

has been pay $20 and get back $30 in credit if it loses.

For me this new increased amount to $30 and get back $40 is just one more clear example that the STRUGGLING NC "Marketing Dept."

doesn't know what they are doing and more likely is just plain DESPERATE.

I mean if it is obvious that the $20 and get back $30 doesn't fly, why would they expect that folks would be willing to shell out even more

money at $30 just so that they can the same $10 back which was offered for the $20 "Dinner Special."

My God-if Phil/NC can't even put together a simple,logical and well thought out promo for their picks, why would anyone assume that the

manner in which they make the selections for their picks is any better!!!

ps Moving forward, I will continue to use the term "Dinner Specials" in referring to their promos, except in instances like

this where I will refer to them as "Grasping at Straws/Hail Mary" Specials.

 

[ACP]

When i called for my Marquee, I said why isnt there any mention on the recording the the Power Sweep which you have been promoting every call went 1-5 for minus 12.3 units? Also why no mention that the Marquees dropped 1-5 as last night ov 80.5 for me was a loser by 1/2 point...i said at $100 a star, thats over $2000 loss in week 1 where it is suppose to be the easiest to predict winners over the first month of the season... She seemed like a deer in the headlights as she was quiet when i said that....

Mon Marquee... Under 54.5 ND/Louiv

To be honest, there is 55 out there in 50% of books... not sure why they used 54.5. My book that has my account is 54.5... gonna wait it out and see if 55 hit from Public Over $$$

GL

 

[savage1]

When i called for my Marquee, I said why isnt there any mention on the recording the the Power Sweep which you have been promoting every call went 1-5 for minus 12.3 units? Also why no mention that the Marquees dropped 1-5 as last night ov 80.5 for me was a loser by 1/2 point...i said at $100 a star, thats over $2000 loss in week 1 where it is suppose to be the easiest to predict winners over the first month of the season... She seemed like a deer in the headlights as she was quiet when i said that....

Mon Marquee... Under 54.5 ND/Louiv

To be honest, there is 55 out there in 50% of books... not sure why they used 54.5. My book that has my account is 54.5... gonna wait it out and see if 55 hit from Public Over $$$

GL

CP-I was just getting ready for lunch, but thankfully just saw your bombshell post.

What you stated is just so TRUE and REVEALING and I am not surprised one bit at the receptionists "deer in headlight" response(I assume Debbie unless someone else

is doing Phil's/NC's dirty work now in addition to Todd.

I mentioned this at CM-not sure if I did in the Rubber Room or not:

When I actually used to trade emails with Debbie at NC . I asked here why NC covered up/spun its losses with omissions, etc.

Here simple response was and I am quoting, "Well at NC we always want to out our best foot forward."

For me that is like a kid in high school who is flunking all courses, didn't tell his parents about it, hides his report card, and one day happens

to get lucky and gets an A on a pop quiz.

You know the rest of the story-he proudly marches into the living room and shows the A to his parents.

It really is not that different with Phil/NC. lol


Keep up the GREAT work!!


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[BuzzKill]

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[savage1]

With only a half hour to go until game starts, it looks like we may have to wait to get the two star side selection from the Sports Monitor after it begins.

Perhaps the reason that we don't have it is because no one wants to shell out $30 to get a 2* opinion and simply get back $40

credit for future picks if it loses.

If they are confident in their pick, they would make a REAL guarantee which would amount to giving back $40 in REAL CASH for the $30 received rather than

$40 in stinking credit.

 

[savage1]

FLASH-The 2* was/is Notre Dame tonight.

 

[savage1]

The 2* on ND loses(it was 19 from 11:11 AM on and never went back to 18 although it was 18 prior to that for a while-they had better not try

to claim any kind of push on that!!!).

Marquee wins on UNDER.

Recap for Late Phones for the week tomorrow.

ps Just think-if anyone took the $30 guarantee and lost, they are now are entitled to $40 of any of those "great" NC picks

of their choice moving forward-I mean how can anyone go wrong getting $40 worth of picks for FREE that they don't have to pay for in the first place if they

have a PC or Cell Phone. lol

 

[savage1]

For those of you are interested in a little tidbit here unitl recap for the week and until I listen to the comp. tape for Tuesday, here you go.

First of all Phil Steele/NC according to The Sports Monitor had Miami last night which was a LOSER(although I see at the SM they are calling it a push at

18 which is bs-I will talk about that later after I hear what Tod has to say about how it is graded).

Anyways I just stumbled upon this, as apparently Phil in his own demented way tries to equate football team to the stock market using the terms

Bull and Bear Market to make his point about teams which he deems to be in Bull Markets and those in Bear Markets in 2019.

You don't have to read the entire article which follows to get the gist of what I am talking about.

All you need to do is to scroll down and you will see that Louisville is the TOP team deemed to be in a Bull Market for this season(expected to do well this

year), whereas Notre Dame is near the bottom of the Bear Market Teams(teams expected to not do well this season).

Using that logic, wouldn't one expect that the pick would be Louisville last night rather than Notre Dame???

In actuality I am not really all that as I have shown with their confusing and conflicting promos and in general talking out of both

sides of their mouths in other instances.

Here is the link:

https://philsteele.com/2019/08/20/2019-stock-market-indicator/

 

[ACP]

Can you post a link as to where their recap would be at TSM please. I did not know you can do that. I asked them if they could give me a passcode to call in and get my Marquees (49) package, as sometimes I don’t call in time bc I am sleeping bc of work schedule. They said no they need to save them for the weekly sales for those suckered into buy weekly packages. The reason I want one is bc I want to see if I can get it for free at forums before I actually have to make the call and scratch one off the list. Only good thing is most weekends they are 2for 1 or 3 for 1 ... so only one comes off. Like this past weekend. It cost me one on my (49) but cost me 3.3 at the books bc he went 0-3.... ROTFLMAO...

 

[savage1]

Can you post a link as to where their recap would be at TSM please. I did not know you can do that. I asked them if they could give me a passcode to call in and get my Marquees (49) package, as sometimes I don’t call in time bc I am sleeping bc of work schedule. They said no they need to save them for the weekly sales for those suckered into buy weekly packages. The reason I want one is bc I want to see if I can get it for free at forums before I actually have to make the call and scratch one off the list. Only good thing is most weekends they are 2for 1 or 3 for 1 ... so only one comes off. Like this past weekend. It cost me one on my (49) but cost me 3.3 at the books bc he went 0-3.... ROTFLMAO...

This is all I have and the link I use.

If you toy around with it, you can find all of the Phil Steele/NC picks(released sometime after they go off) as well as the recaps.

[FONT=Verdana,Tahoma,Arial,Calibri,Geneva,sans-serif]https://www.thesportsmonitor.com/pages/home.php[/FONT]

 

[savage1]

Ok folks-here you go with first the summary of extensions 9 and 3 along with the comp. plays followed by the Week One Recap:

On ext. 9 not surprisingly Todd calls the Notre Dame a PUSH with nothing said about line movement being 19 when they gave the play out and

there and NEVER once going back to 18-this is a just a boldfaced LIE as the game is a LOSER!!!

If I bought the play I would demand that they made good on the $40 guarantee for credit for the $30 paid!!

Then we get the predictable horse manure promo about the PowerPlay Newsletter we get EVERY Tuesday, what it is all about, how accurate it is, etc(which is a LIE).

It evens sounds more forced than usual-perhaps even Todd is getting bored/sick of delivering the same boring message over and over again ad nauseam every Tuesday.

ANYWAYS THE POWERPLAY NEWSLETTER COMP. PLAY IS UCLA -7.

Onto Ext 9-here where it gets laughable or is it sad because the message is so pathetic and out of touch with reality.

First of all there was no recap for Week One, which you will see in a moment by the REAL recap was a LOSING one.

Today the pump is for Full Executive Service only, which includes The Late Phones, Marquees, Opinions and every single play out of the kitchen sink that NC

puts out.

Now here is where the fun comes in.

As I predicted last week, with the NFL having its first week, don't expect the same bargain prices you saw last week for FEP of $62.50 for a PS Subscriber

and $125 for a non PS subscriber and that the price would go way up.

Well it went up a "little" all right, all the way to $399 for a non PS Subscriber.

But wait there is not one "Dinner Special" for Tuesday but THREE to make it cheaper.

1) If you are a PS Subscriber for 2019, your cost is a "measly" $249.

2) If you also have a subscription for 2020, your cost for FEP goes down by an "incredibly generous" amount of $10 to $239.

3) And get this- if you want to extend your subscription all the way out to 2021, you can knock an additional $10 off to $229!!!

The bottom line is that for a one year subscriber the PS Subscription just went up FOUR TIMES from what it is was last week simply because this week includes

the NFL.

If you are a non PS subscriber, you did a little better as the cost of $399 is a "mere" 3.2 higher than it was last week.

Now you know why I say that Phil and what they call a Marketing Dept. at NC are clueless when it comes a advertising and promos.

ANYWAYS THE UNDERDOG PLAY OF THE WEEK IS ARKANSAS +7.

As this post is fairly lengthy, I decided to put the recap in a separate post.

Look for it shortly to follow.

 

[savage1]

Here is recap for Week One.

Keep in mind that win or lose, I dont and never have included small colleges.

Also I don't separate side and totals in recaps-let Phil and NC do that to try to make themselves look good if one wins and the other loses.

Anyways here we go:

Week One Recap for College according to ratings and at $100 a unit:

Picks go 4-5 and lose .4 units or MINUS $40

Cost of Service for a non PS subscriber was $125.

Thus total lost for week including cost was $165.

No recap for pros as season begins this week.

Every week's recap will state not only how NC did for the week but also a cumulative recap for the season.

ps If any of you spot an error on my part with the tabulations, please let me know in this thread as I am honest and take pride in doing

this and presenting accurate figures.

 

[BuzzKill]

Comp Plays:

Early Bird - Oregon -23

Power Play - UCLA -7

Underdog - Arkansas +7

 

[savage1]

Two more things I forgot to mention at RX that I mentioned at CM last year:

It is pretty ironic that Phil/NC decided to jack the price of Full Executive Service up so much this week in that Full Executive Service has a lot more picks

to choose from and bet than just The Late Phones.

Any experienced gambler knows that betting too many games increases your chances of LOSING rather than winning.

Thus one is expected to pay as much as four times as much for FES this week as opposed to last week, but in effect he DECREASES his chance of winning-wonderful! lol

The other thing is that Phil Steele boasts how many pages his football annuals have as opposed to the opposition..

Most importantly what he doesn't tell you that as far as gambling goes, most of that stuff if virtually worthless once the season begins, and is in effect

just plain overkill and so that he can show off how smart he is and how much stuff he can cram into a publication.

I assure you that most of the other competing publications with many fewer pages and who also run a sports service do much better with than their

picks than Phil/NC because they can see the forest/big picture so to speak, whereas Phil/NC compile so much data, a lot of which is worthless,

that they unable to interpret it properly and make good solid picks.

If I am wrong, I ask why is it that NC has had least THREE CONSECUIVE LOSING seasons with their Late Phones since I started documenting their record?

On the other hand and to be fair, if you don't give a rats ass about gambling and want to know about every college/pro team/player

down to the last detail including what every player had for breakfast and what they watched on tv the day before the game, then yeah Phil's/NC's

Annual Publications are just what the doctor ordered.