The 2019 Phil Steele/Northcoast Picks, Record Documentation, Commentary and Discussion Thread

[savage1]

Thanks rush-man for the kind words.

Ext. 9 No different from usual Saturdays except for GOY and for fact that one can get the second highest rated play alone for $50.

The College Totals Comp. of the Week is UNDER Illinois 46 1/2.

Ext. 3 The usual lie about November ALWAYS being their best month which I dismantled yesterday.

Just because they won THIS year in first month of November proves nothing historically speaking.

THE COLLEGE SIDE COMP. OF THE WEEK IS SMU - 21 1/2.

 

[savage1]

Northcoast

5* Georgia St -2’
4* FAU -10
4* Georgia -17
3* Ohio St -42’
3* Iowa St +14’
3* San Jose St +8


4* Under 49 Vandy / Florida
4* Under 39’ Purdue / NW
3* Over 72 East Carolina / SMU
3* Under 51 ND / Duke​

 

[savage1]

Northcoast

5* Georgia St -2’
4* FAU -10
4* Georgia -17
3* Ohio St -42’ W
3* Iowa St +14’
3* San Jose St +8


4* Under 49 Vandy / Florida L
4* Under 39’ Purdue / NW L
3* Over 72 East Carolina / SMU
3* Under 51 ND / Duke​

2-2 so far, although both top totals lost.

The Florida game looked very suspicious at the end with Florida not milking the clock, passing the ball with a 49-0 lead

and trying to score again(and successfully) perhaps to put game over the total,

 

[rush__man]

its the biggest week in college and the pick is georgia state? seriously?

 

[savage1]

its the biggest week in college and the pick is georgia state? seriously?

GOY LOSES-horrible pick!!

I played it and lost although I did take some back at the half when the second half was pickem and score was tied.

 

[rush__man]

GOY LOSES-horrible pick!!

I played it and lost although I did take some back at the half when the second half was pickem and score was tied.

new low for NC in my opinion. a shit game nobody watched and still a loss.

 

[DrJimmy]

Terrible pick. Never covering the whole game

 

[savage1]

FWIW-I don' the Marquees were posted today.

Here they are:

• 1 Unit Side Play
  
  [157] Liberty Flames vs.
  
  [158] Brigham Young Cougars
  
  
  Saturday November 9th, 2019 7:30 PM EST
  [158] Brigham Young Cougars
  
• 1 Unit Side Play
  
  [167] LSU Tigers vs.
  
  [168] Alabama Crimson Tide
  
  
  Saturday November 9th, 2019 3:40 PM EST
  [167] LSU Tigers
  
• 1 Unit Total Play
  
  [179] Tennessee Volunteers vs.
  
  [180] Kentucky Wildcats
  
  
  Saturday November 9th, 2019 7:38 PM EST
  Kentucky Wildcats [Under]

 

[savage1]

Northcoast

5* Georgia St -2’ L
4* FAU -10 W
4* Georgia -17 W
3* Ohio St -42’ W
3* Iowa St +14’ L
3* San Jose St +8


4* Under 49 Vandy / Florida L
4* Under 39’ Purdue / NW L
3* Over 72 East Carolina / SMU W
3* Under 51 ND / Duke L​

This has been a very strange day indeed.

At the moment with just the San Jose St. game out, NC stands at 6-3 with 5.7 units gained.

This is in spite of a truly horrible GOY On Georgia State .

Those who played everything are going to win.

Those who played the GOY only for $100 lose.

Those who played just the totals lost including the two top plays.

If San Jose St wins, one has to call it a decent day with 8.7 units gained.

Even if it does win though, the day will be tainted by the poor GOY pick.

This day is sort of similar to September when NC lost its GOM but won everything else on 9-1 overall.

Thus pending the outcome of the San Jose St game, it will be up you to decide whether this should be considered a good day or the "deepest card of

season" or not-it will be a winning day no matter what the outcome of the San Jose St Game.

Personally I lost a little because I played the GOY more than a five star compared to the other games which I played pretty much according to scale.

On another note, tomorrow should be incredibly interesting inasmuch is NC is 0-9-1 over the last three Sundays.

Part of me says no way they go 0-3 tomorrow and most likely will go at least 2-1 but you never know in the world of sports gambling.

I never though I would see them go 0-9-1 over three consecutive Sundays.

It will be interesting as to how Todd summarizes today.

Back tomorrow morning.

 

[savage1]

Early look

NC won the last game on San Jose St. making it a very nice 7-3 or + 8.7 units even though the day was bittersweet as the GOY lost,

a big negative when any big play won.

Nonetheless with their star rated winner on Temple the other night, if my math is right, they are up 11.7 units and on their way to their

second straight winning week.

They just need to have a good day in the NFL today after going 0-9-1 over the last three Sundays.

Also inasmuch as I criticize NC a lot mostly for the way in which they operate the service, in fairness I am going to give them some credit here.

Yes they advertise and pump GOY like everyone else to attract customers.

However unlike lots of services, they don't maker these big games out to be games you should play 20-30 times your normal amount,

advertise then as billion star locks, etc.

Instead they give them out as 4 1/2 or 5 star ratings only meaning that since most of their rated plays are 3-5 stars, you shouldn't go overboard with them.

Thus if someone who plays their units at $100 a star, meaning that they should have put $500 on yesterday's game, but instead

decided to bet the game for $1000, $1500, etc., they can only blame themselves rather than NC and/or the same for not playing the other picks, which went

7-2 overall.

Thus if they played just the five star, they should have lost just a little more relatively speaking than if the game had been rated anywhere from three to four 1/2

stars or had a very nice day if they played everything and scaled them accordingly.

Yours truly lost a herring on the day playing everything because while I didn't go completely overboard with the five star, I didn't follow

my own advice and played the other games much smaller relative to this game or played the GOY too large, depending on which way you

want to look at it.

Back in a bit.

 

[savage1]

Correction-I have the 7-3 day correct and units won but screwed up in the W's and L;s.

This is how it should read.

5* Georgia St -2’ L​

4* FAU -10 W​

4* Georgia -17 W​

3* Ohio St -42’ W​

3* Iowa St +14’ W​

3* San Jose St +8 W​

​

4* Under 49 Vandy / Florida L​

4* Under 39’ Purdue / NW L​

3* Over 72 East Carolina / SMU W​

3* Under 51 ND / Duke W​

 

[savage1]

Very short recap of the message today.

Todd is honest and corroborates my record keeping, admits the GOY loser was disaappointing.

Pricing for the NFL is the same as alwayss.

THE PRO PLAY OF THE WEEK IS NEW YORK GIANTS - 3.

 

[savage1]

One slight correction from previous post.

The usual price on Sunday for someone who hasn't bought any package which includes this, is $75 for all three plays.

Today it has been raised to $100.

Hmm-pretty interesting to say the least for a service which has gone 0-9-1 over last three Sundays.

Perhaps NC figures they can raise the price and get away with it because there will be "intense" interest today because

of law of averages, meaning NC should win because of the dismal record the last three Sundays or perhaps because

of yesterday's overall nice winning day in spite of GOY LOSER.

 

[savage1]

No picks yet, folks.

However as some sports services offer guarantees with their picks and predicitions, I am going to offer one.

If NC goes 0-3 again for the 4th consecutive Sunday making it 0-12-1, my guarantee in "honor" of this "remarkable achievement" will be for the next

two weeks starting tomorrow to offer no criticisms and no negative commentary about NC for two weeks.

I will instead REPORT only their records and what Todd says on comp. phone.

 

[savage1]

Here you go.

Like yesterday I am playing all of the picks and have full confidence(famous last words), that I won't have to make good on guarantee in previous post.

Northcoast

3.5* Arizona over52
3* Buffalo +3
3* Miami +11​

 

[savage1]

Northcoast Sunday Night Marquee

Dallas -3
​

 

[savage1]

Good day, going 2-0-1, and a good week overall, the second one in a row.

About the only blemish, althought a noticeable one, was the College GOY loser on Saturday.

 

[savage1]

Early thoughts:

I just figured out that WITHOUT taking the cost of service for picks, NC is actually slightly ahead for the season with this week's and last

week's positive results.

As you can see from post 460, without taking the cost of service into account(which obviously must be done to get an accurate and fair

assessment), going into this week NC was down 15 units.

Post 460-"Overall 15 units have been LOST or MINUS $1,500 at $100 a unit."

Since they are ahead 18.2 units so far this week, that means they are ahead 3.2 units again though without the cost of service included,

which if included means that they have to keep winning in order to overcome that.

Back later.​

 

[savage1]

Here we go-ony ext. 9 is operative today.

He gives us an honest recap for the week without going overboard with bragging about it.

I would still have to see actual documentation over timecas to his claim that NC ALWAYS wins in November and/or does better than in any months.

One year doesn't prove anything as I showed with my documentation last week that overall in the three years I documented their record

at CM, they lost in November.

Also, I couldn't remember the records with their Games of the Month/Five Stars overall so far so I went back and checked.

It was worse than I thought.

In college sides they are 1-2 losing both their September Five and College GOY.

With the college totals they are 0-2 with the TOM for November still to be released.

In the NFL they are 1-1 so far with November still out.

Thus overall they are a not so hot 2-5 with these big plays.

THE EARLY BIRD PLAY OF THE WEEK IS CLEMSON - 30 1/2.

 

[savage1]

Oh yeah-one thing I forgot to mention.

In honor of Veterans Day, November 11, the Monday Night Magic Play without guarantee has been reduced to $11 from usual $20(he didn't say what guaranteed

price is).

The Marquee Play has also been reduced from $12 to $11.