I live in the LA area. Can you let me know which bookie offers -6??? Please PM me.
My book raised it to -7.5. I'd be interested in opening an account w/ anyone offering 6.
too late
you could have had -6 anywhere before Olson got hurt
Vols might not score 7, UCLA has 6 starters back, also have best TE in the country. UCLA has good athletes.
I know right? Everything I look at shows Tennessee winning by more than 7. I recognize that the ball is round and takes bounces...but everything looks ripe for a solid Tenn win.
UCLA starting a JUCO QB, a horrid O-line (2 returners...one of which has a broken hand and is questionable to play), a converted TE playing on O-line, a once walk-on center, two RBs coming back from ACL injuries, a new offensive system...all spells trouble for UCLA. Their defense isn't bad though and I think they'll force Tennessee into some punts, but I expect at least 3 turnovers from UCLA.
Some positives for Tennessee: returning all of their O-line (which allowed the fewest sacks, 5, last year in the NCAA), Crompton has played in 16 games behind Ainge...so he's not completely green, Crompton has some speed, returning all of the WR corps, returning a RB that ran for 1000+ last year, potentially the best safety combo in the NCAA, solid LB group, and hopefully Brandon Warren (AA freshman at FSU that transferred) gets to play at TE because he's a serious weapon on offense.
Some negatives for Tennessee: first game of the year and it's away (although school's not in session for UCLA yet and Tennessee plans to have somewhere between 25%-50% of the Rose bowl...you know how those SEC teams travel), D-Line is weak, they lost last year out here...
I've looked into it a LOT. I think -6 was a welfare program from the books and it quickly moved to -7 and it's at -7.5 at 5 dimes (I've seen it's evolution from -6 to -7, -7 to -7.5 even, -7.5 even to -7.5 -105, -7.5 -105 to its current line -7.5 -110).
To be honest, I would be worried if an LA bookie was having his line move in the same direction. I think that's a bit of the LA-homer effect, but what do you guys think? The guy who I was going to play through says the drop in the LA line (-7.5 to -6) is because a "lot of professional gamblers are betting it down". Believable?
My interest in this game stems because I think the line is horribly off here. I think it should be -10 at the worst and probably closer -14 but I'm looking for some confirmation from you guys. This will likely be my largest play of the CFB season, between $10k-$15k. I know that's not much to some of you, but it's a really large bet from me.
As always, thoughts are appreciated.
As an afterthought, I was thinking about running a 6.5 point teaser with
Tenn -1
USC -13 -110
They drove the line down to 7 before Olson was hurt. Those "Bookies in LA"
That should explain everything.
Is there no action on Tennessee anywhere in Los Angeles?
Did you also know that UCLA is starting a JC Transfer QB without a single rep in D1-A?
(And he's not that good.)
more bad news for UCLA
gerald williams was unleashed today after being in the NCAA doghouse for 3 yrs. he will get more playing time than people think. getting warren and williams both cleared in the week before game one is quite the opposite of the past 4-5 years where the vols lost a couple key players in late august to injury.
one of fulmers biggest nightmares the past 10 yrs has been losing the big playmakers to suspension or injury or academics. lots of happy people in knoxville this week.
Kind of funny that almost everyone on here is in love with Tennessee. From what I am reading it's mainly because of the UCLA QB situation, which is hardly as bad as it's being made out to be. He has started 6 college games before so he's not inexperienced. Neuheisal has put together what could be the best coaching staff in the country with Norm Chow at Offensive Coordinator and keeping Dewayne Walker as the defensive coordinator from the Dorrell era. People like to trash the PAC 10 against the SEC but the last 5 games UCLA has had against the SEC they are 5-0 against the spread. UCLA is 10-0 their last 10 as a home underdog and they have been a home underdog of more than 7 points 9 times since 1985 and covered every one of them. Tennessee very well could cover but it's hard to believe that so many are just thinking Tennessee wins this game so easily.
some very good points. was following you until the 1985 reference. do you realize in 1985 vinny testaverde was QB for the Miami Hurricanes? and hes been playing in the NFL for like 40 years ? what in the hell does a 1985 game have to do with mondays game.
and yeah i think UCLA got a great coaching staff , just no players to compete.
Kind of funny that almost everyone on here is in love with Tennessee. From what I am reading it's mainly because of the UCLA QB situation, which is hardly as bad as it's being made out to be. He has started 6 college games before so he's not inexperienced. Neuheisal has put together what could be the best coaching staff in the country with Norm Chow at Offensive Coordinator and keeping Dewayne Walker as the defensive coordinator from the Dorrell era. People like to trash the PAC 10 against the SEC but the last 5 games UCLA has had against the SEC they are 5-0 against the spread. UCLA is 10-0 their last 10 as a home underdog and they have been a home underdog of more than 7 points 9 times since 1985 and covered every one of them. Tennessee very well could cover but it's hard to believe that so many are just thinking Tennessee wins this game so easily.
and fwiw i was at the rose bowl for one of the games they lost as home dog in 1989 , they lost to TN 30-0. chris mims and chuck smith were juco transfers and that was first game at UT. it was a great weekend, i remember watching deion sanders first NFL game on tv in the hotel vs the l.a. rams and he went nuts , still an alltime fav player. was my first trip to vegas that weekend also. i was 16 and couldnt gamble ,i was forced to chase girls instead. life was so simple then
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Let me explain this more clearly. I was showing that UCLA has a short-term history of success at home as an underdog and a long-term history.