The only thing that would bother me here is giving a TD with a new starting QB going on the road in the first game of the season...Gernerally when I see two teams with new QB's, especially with one team using a new offense and the other with a new coach, I start looking hard at the UNDER play.
I was thinking the same thing GoSooners. That makes sense from many angles. Curious to see what kind of total really gets posted and how much all these stories about UCLA's QB and OL problems will push the number down. (Not enough?) Maybe a posted total something in the low 40s? I think the scoring total will end up in the mid-high 30's, or maybe less if UCLA's DC Walker can make a game of it.
27-10 or 27-13-ish
I was thinking about the same total..The only problem I have with this game is the line being up to 7 at a few places. I don't like that number..Especially if the total is going to stay in the 30's. Like you, I can see a 27-10 type of game..But if these new QB's should struggle, I can also see a 17-10 type of game.
The new Tenn QB Crompton was highly recruited (Elite11) and has had a few starts the last two years when Ainge was out (including LSU in 2006 when he played very well). Much more athletic than Ainge but more of a risk taker as is the new off. coordinator. Turnovers and red zone scoring will be key. IMO UCLA's only chance to cover would be turnovers and a couple of big special teams returns.
The Tenn def line is good but depth is a concern. I think they will play to stop the run and make UCLA pass. Tenn secondary should be one of the teams strengths.
As I've stated before Tenn along with Clemson are my top plays for the first weekend barring any key personnal losses in preseason.
BOL
People forget Crompton was the rivals #2 rated prostyle QB in the 05 class behind Sanchez. The same guys doubting Crompton show little concern for Sanchez starting at USC. He was just stuck a year behind a cerebral QB in a cerebral system.
Offensively its the Vols run game that has been a little slow to develop as Arian Foster has been slightly hurt. Crompton will throw for a lot of yards this year , hes got the deep pass that Ainge/Cutcliffe didnt like to use. Gerald Jones should have a breakout year with Crompton.
The Vols d-line will be one of the best UCLA sees this season. I know thats not what you wanted to hear Conan but its the truth. Williams, Bolden , Ayers, Fisher will all play in the NFL next year. The secondary has at least 4 future NFL players with a couple first rounders at safety . Im more concerned about the LB's and lack of proven depth there. Losing Jerod Mayo hurts.
Offensively its the Vols run game that has been a little slow to develop as Arian Foster has been slightly hurt. Crompton will throw for a lot of yards this year , hes got the deep pass that Ainge/Cutcliffe didnt like to use. Gerald Jones should have a breakout year with Crompton.
The Vols d-line will be one of the best UCLA sees this season. I know thats not what you wanted to hear Conan but its the truth. Williams, Bolden , Ayers, Fisher will all play in the NFL next year. The secondary has at least 4 future NFL players with a couple first rounders at safety . Im more concerned about the LB's and lack of proven depth there. Losing Jerod Mayo hurts.
Not as high on the DL as you, but I do think they'll be better than many people expect them to be. Also, Crompton was stuck behind David Cutcliffe. He was, and still is better than Ainge he and Cut didn't see eye to eye on many different fronts. Ainge was efficient, Crompton is a playmaker and throws a gret deep ball that Ainge never could injury or no injury. He'll make more mistakes than EA, but he'll also make much more happen. I just hope his motor isn't going so fast this 1st game he makes 1-2 BIG mistakes that gives the home crowd momentum.
This is the best overall UT team since 01 in my opinion. I think people are going to be impressed by the talent on offensive after week 1. Defensively, they are thin up front and at LB, but if they have minimal injuries, they'll definately be more than capable to hold their own with most. They only need to provide pressure to force quick decisions by QB'S, the DB'S will take care of the rest. Expect a lot of nickel or "mustang" type packages where you get Berry, Morley, Willingham, Vinson, Rogan, McKenzie, Williams and McCoy on the field. One thing is for sure about the UT D, THEY ARE GOING TOO BE FAST AS HELL.
:nohead:
GJ... MVP indeed! When all else fails, punt!
You must be referring to Aaron "Hang Time" Perez, the UCLA kicker who punts the ball 50 yards a pop.
He's the best news out of fall camp for the Bruins... by far!
FIELD POSITION BABY!
THE OLD COFFIN CORNER!
DEADLY!!!
GO BRUINS!
(Now if their defense can only score some points)
Here's a writeup I did on UCLA/Tenn for someone else....
Yes, I got it at -6.5 so -7 is nothing but a push, some people think .5 point changes that take a win to a push subtracts the EV and thus makes it a worse bet, but I'm never worried about it although I see their point.
First things first on this game, the UCLA offensive line is bad. Well it was OK last year. Then they graduated all the good players, and the returners were horrible. Then those returners got injured, and the backups got injured. I'm obviously not giving a completely accurate picture, but you get the idea. This offensive line is on paper with Notre Dame's last year. It's why I was singing from the high tops last offseason to fade Notre Dame every game - and I certainly did, until the spreads got ridiculous. I'm a BIG believer in the offensive and defensive lines being the BIGGEST part of College Football, (switches to skill players in the NFL) and is usually my first place I look to handicap a game. UCLA has been moving a backup TE to play OT and it's just a mess of really slow white guys. Tennessee doesn't have a GREAT DL but they will live in the UCLA backfield. There will be a very large number of sacks in this game that will really offset the rhythm for UCLA.
On the flip side, UCLA's best part of their team is their d-Line, even though it will be worse than last year after losing by far their best player Bruce Davis. This plays right into the ridiculous strength of Tennessee where they return 4 or 5 starters, i don't remember, on the best O-Line in CFB last year. Besides that UCLA's defense is passable. Decent LBers and a decent secondary that will have their SS suspended for the first game. I think Arian Foster, the RB for Tennessee, is a beast. Tennessee will likely look to him early to open up the passing game for Crompton and he definately can shoulder the load. One reason I think this line is so low is becuase obviously this is Crompton's first game and it's halfway across teh country. Well, that's true but I still think Crompton is one hell of a QB and will be able to play well enough to put points up in the high 20s to low 30s with the aid of a great ground game and the extra gift of probably never being sacked thanks to that OL.
Back more to UCLA's offense. Their QB with Ben Olson wasn't that good to begin with. I wasn't worried about him becuase he's got some talent but their OL would mean he'd just never get to do anything. Well now he's injured and the JC transfer that just came in this summer is the starting QB. Some people who don't follow shit closely think this is a good thing because he was the 5-star JC player of the year. Well that's great, but he also was teh guy who was at a JC because he couldn't win the starting job - at San Diego State . This guy is fucking horrible. In their last scrimmage he was 9-18 with 3 picks and he WILL be their starter for Tennessee. He will be under much more duress in that game becuase I'm SURE UCLA isn't blitzing in practice in order to aide the OL. Add to that Tennessee has a great secondary, and this guy will throw at least 3 picks if he throws at least 20 passes I'd have to imagine. UCLA has some decent receivers and some good RBs which I imagine they will lean on but it won't really matter. I have a hard time seeing them score more than 10 points, MAYBE 13. If I had to put a real number it would be 0 or 3, but contingency planning for one lucky long pass or something or one error by Tennessee's relatively weak LB's, UCLA might break off one long run, but they are gonna nead a special play for a TD. They have a good FG kicker but he will rarely get a chance.
I'd pick a score for this game of 27-3, with not a lot of room for difference, I see Tennessee having decent production with UCLA absolutely not doing anything. The one caveat is that it is at the rose bowl where UCLA always seems to play way better but this team is just too bad.
Yes, I got it at -6.5 so -7 is nothing but a push, some people think .5 point changes that take a win to a push subtracts the EV and thus makes it a worse bet, but I'm never worried about it although I see their point.
First things first on this game, the UCLA offensive line is bad. Well it was OK last year. Then they graduated all the good players, and the returners were horrible. Then those returners got injured, and the backups got injured. I'm obviously not giving a completely accurate picture, but you get the idea. This offensive line is on paper with Notre Dame's last year. It's why I was singing from the high tops last offseason to fade Notre Dame every game - and I certainly did, until the spreads got ridiculous. I'm a BIG believer in the offensive and defensive lines being the BIGGEST part of College Football, (switches to skill players in the NFL) and is usually my first place I look to handicap a game. UCLA has been moving a backup TE to play OT and it's just a mess of really slow white guys. Tennessee doesn't have a GREAT DL but they will live in the UCLA backfield. There will be a very large number of sacks in this game that will really offset the rhythm for UCLA.
On the flip side, UCLA's best part of their team is their d-Line, even though it will be worse than last year after losing by far their best player Bruce Davis. This plays right into the ridiculous strength of Tennessee where they return 4 or 5 starters, i don't remember, on the best O-Line in CFB last year. Besides that UCLA's defense is passable. Decent LBers and a decent secondary that will have their SS suspended for the first game. I think Arian Foster, the RB for Tennessee, is a beast. Tennessee will likely look to him early to open up the passing game for Crompton and he definately can shoulder the load. One reason I think this line is so low is becuase obviously this is Crompton's first game and it's halfway across teh country. Well, that's true but I still think Crompton is one hell of a QB and will be able to play well enough to put points up in the high 20s to low 30s with the aid of a great ground game and the extra gift of probably never being sacked thanks to that OL.
Back more to UCLA's offense. Their QB with Ben Olson wasn't that good to begin with. I wasn't worried about him becuase he's got some talent but their OL would mean he'd just never get to do anything. Well now he's injured and the JC transfer that just came in this summer is the starting QB. Some people who don't follow shit closely think this is a good thing because he was the 5-star JC player of the year. Well that's great, but he also was teh guy who was at a JC because he couldn't win the starting job - at San Diego State . This guy is fucking horrible. In their last scrimmage he was 9-18 with 3 picks and he WILL be their starter for Tennessee. He will be under much more duress in that game becuase I'm SURE UCLA isn't blitzing in practice in order to aide the OL. Add to that Tennessee has a great secondary, and this guy will throw at least 3 picks if he throws at least 20 passes I'd have to imagine. UCLA has some decent receivers and some good RBs which I imagine they will lean on but it won't really matter. I have a hard time seeing them score more than 10 points, MAYBE 13. If I had to put a real number it would be 0 or 3, but contingency planning for one lucky long pass or something or one error by Tennessee's relatively weak LB's, UCLA might break off one long run, but they are gonna nead a special play for a TD. They have a good FG kicker but he will rarely get a chance.
I'd pick a score for this game of 27-3, with not a lot of room for difference, I see Tennessee having decent production with UCLA absolutely not doing anything. The one caveat is that it is at the rose bowl where UCLA always seems to play way better but this team is just too bad.
I think NFL games are won on the Lines just as in College. You just get more NFL time on Sportscenter with people like Chad Johnson taking all the time. Teams with good lines tend to win more games. That is one thing the MIZZOU team will be adjusting to this year losing most of the O-Line will hurt.
Ah yes, I do remember that post that was made last year about Eric Berry and people did get a great chuckle out of that didn't they? Well we are seeing first hand what this kid can do to WR in the SEC and everywhere for that matter. I like Tennessee in this game by 13-17 points. UCLA has la mediocre WR and their offensive line is just terrible. That running game should be non existent before the first snap, but hey UCLA O-Line might just blow their shit up and get ready for the game.
I don't think so though, Tennessee covers their first game and moves onto 1-0.
The avatar is a good one, and will be there the entire season :toast:. Lets go Vols!
