"One reason I think this line is so low is becuase obviously this is Crompton's first game and it's halfway across teh country."
Crompton has played in several games including starting in a few games. One of those games was against LSU when they had the #1 defense in the country.
2007 - Games/ Starts: 7/0 ... Saw action as reserve in seven games ... Finished season 7-of-12 passing for 98 yards and one touchdown ... Completed 3-of-4 passes for 68 yards and his touchdown pass versus Louisiana-Lafayette ... Strong runner as well, and his abilities have been used each of his first two seasons.
2006 - Games/Starts: 7/1...Saw first action of career in season-opener against California, passing for seven yards on two completions and also rushing twice for six yards... Came in at end of Memphis game, completing both of his passes for 37 yards with completion of 27 yards to Quintin Hancock...Vols finished combined 25-of-29 passing that day for 361 yards and four touchdowns with no interceptions ... After injury to Erik Ainge, played final series at South Carolina...Entered LSU game in second quarter... Threw two touchdown passes to Robert Meachem, the latter a 54-yarder to give Vols lead in fourth quarter... Finished game 11-of-24 for 183 yards, two touchdowns and one interception...Made first career start against Arkansas...Threw for 174 yards and two touchdowns against Razorbacks...Also played at Vanderbilt
Crompton has played in several games including starting in a few games. One of those games was against LSU when they had the #1 defense in the country.
2007 - Games/ Starts: 7/0 ... Saw action as reserve in seven games ... Finished season 7-of-12 passing for 98 yards and one touchdown ... Completed 3-of-4 passes for 68 yards and his touchdown pass versus Louisiana-Lafayette ... Strong runner as well, and his abilities have been used each of his first two seasons.
2006 - Games/Starts: 7/1...Saw first action of career in season-opener against California, passing for seven yards on two completions and also rushing twice for six yards... Came in at end of Memphis game, completing both of his passes for 37 yards with completion of 27 yards to Quintin Hancock...Vols finished combined 25-of-29 passing that day for 361 yards and four touchdowns with no interceptions ... After injury to Erik Ainge, played final series at South Carolina...Entered LSU game in second quarter... Threw two touchdown passes to Robert Meachem, the latter a 54-yarder to give Vols lead in fourth quarter... Finished game 11-of-24 for 183 yards, two touchdowns and one interception...Made first career start against Arkansas...Threw for 174 yards and two touchdowns against Razorbacks...Also played at Vanderbilt
I think the reason this line is so low is because Vegas and the sportsbooks are making the necessary money they need on both sides of the line. Pure and simple. The line is set based on power rating numbers that factor in last season's performances from both teams. UCLA has had a reputation of upsetting some big teams in the past and apparently there are several gamblers that believe they are capable of doing that here at home, or at least hanging close enough to cover the spread.
Personally, I think the gamblers on the UCLA side are wrong, but God bless them for putting enough money on that side to give me a good line . . .
I don't see any reason to back UCLA in this one. Vols should cover this one and if they don't it is going to have to be a low scoring game. I will be on the Vols and the under. I expect the under to start out at about 41. I don't think we will be lucky enough to get a nice over/under.
The key difference in this game will be the UCLA O-Line with a new QB. That's just never a good combination and if you take this in early season games in general you are going to come out well in the positive.
The key difference in this game will be the UCLA O-Line with a new QB. That's just never a good combination and if you take this in early season games in general you are going to come out well in the positive.
The books are taking their sweet time posting totals.
I'll bet under if it's 41 or more. I'll bet it hard.
I already bet the Vols -6 as soon as I saw it. I got that number at Carib.
Then it went to 7 within minutes of Olson's tough luck injury. Lucky me I guess.
Laying less than a TD feels like good insurance but I don't think the Bruins can answer on the scoreboard so 7 ain't so bad.
I'll bet under if it's 41 or more. I'll bet it hard.
I already bet the Vols -6 as soon as I saw it. I got that number at Carib.
Then it went to 7 within minutes of Olson's tough luck injury. Lucky me I guess.
Laying less than a TD feels like good insurance but I don't think the Bruins can answer on the scoreboard so 7 ain't so bad.
So what to do here...
I've been playing Tenn -7 (-120...been buying a half point from -7.5, -105) pretty big. I think this game is a total mismatch.
Also, I have access to a bookie in LA who's lines have been moving from -7.5 to -6. What to think of this? Is this smart money or home-town homer money driving this line down?
Plus, any additional thoughts on the game you have are much appreciated.
I've been playing Tenn -7 (-120...been buying a half point from -7.5, -105) pretty big. I think this game is a total mismatch.
Also, I have access to a bookie in LA who's lines have been moving from -7.5 to -6. What to think of this? Is this smart money or home-town homer money driving this line down?
Plus, any additional thoughts on the game you have are much appreciated.
I know right? Everything I look at shows Tennessee winning by more than 7. I recognize that the ball is round and takes bounces...but everything looks ripe for a solid Tenn win.
UCLA starting a JUCO QB, a horrid O-line (2 returners...one of which has a broken hand and is questionable to play), a converted TE playing on O-line, a once walk-on center, two RBs coming back from ACL injuries, a new offensive system...all spells trouble for UCLA. Their defense isn't bad though and I think they'll force Tennessee into some punts, but I expect at least 3 turnovers from UCLA.
Some positives for Tennessee: returning all of their O-line (which allowed the fewest sacks, 5, last year in the NCAA), Crompton has played in 16 games behind Ainge...so he's not completely green, Crompton has some speed, returning all of the WR corps, returning a RB that ran for 1000+ last year, potentially the best safety combo in the NCAA, solid LB group, and hopefully Brandon Warren (AA freshman at FSU that transferred) gets to play at TE because he's a serious weapon on offense.
Some negatives for Tennessee: first game of the year and it's away (although school's not in session for UCLA yet and Tennessee plans to have somewhere between 25%-50% of the Rose bowl...you know how those SEC teams travel), D-Line is weak, they lost last year out here...
I've looked into it a LOT. I think -6 was a welfare program from the books and it quickly moved to -7 and it's at -7.5 at 5 dimes (I've seen it's evolution from -6 to -7, -7 to -7.5 even, -7.5 even to -7.5 -105, -7.5 -105 to its current line -7.5 -110).
To be honest, I would be worried if an LA bookie was having his line move in the same direction. I think that's a bit of the LA-homer effect, but what do you guys think? The guy who I was going to play through says the drop in the LA line (-7.5 to -6) is because a "lot of professional gamblers are betting it down". Believable?
My interest in this game stems because I think the line is horribly off here. I think it should be -10 at the worst and probably closer -14 but I'm looking for some confirmation from you guys. This will likely be my largest play of the CFB season, between $10k-$15k. I know that's not much to some of you, but it's a really large bet from me.
As always, thoughts are appreciated.
As an afterthought, I was thinking about running a 6.5 point teaser with
Tenn -1
USC -13 -110
UCLA starting a JUCO QB, a horrid O-line (2 returners...one of which has a broken hand and is questionable to play), a converted TE playing on O-line, a once walk-on center, two RBs coming back from ACL injuries, a new offensive system...all spells trouble for UCLA. Their defense isn't bad though and I think they'll force Tennessee into some punts, but I expect at least 3 turnovers from UCLA.
Some positives for Tennessee: returning all of their O-line (which allowed the fewest sacks, 5, last year in the NCAA), Crompton has played in 16 games behind Ainge...so he's not completely green, Crompton has some speed, returning all of the WR corps, returning a RB that ran for 1000+ last year, potentially the best safety combo in the NCAA, solid LB group, and hopefully Brandon Warren (AA freshman at FSU that transferred) gets to play at TE because he's a serious weapon on offense.
Some negatives for Tennessee: first game of the year and it's away (although school's not in session for UCLA yet and Tennessee plans to have somewhere between 25%-50% of the Rose bowl...you know how those SEC teams travel), D-Line is weak, they lost last year out here...
I've looked into it a LOT. I think -6 was a welfare program from the books and it quickly moved to -7 and it's at -7.5 at 5 dimes (I've seen it's evolution from -6 to -7, -7 to -7.5 even, -7.5 even to -7.5 -105, -7.5 -105 to its current line -7.5 -110).
To be honest, I would be worried if an LA bookie was having his line move in the same direction. I think that's a bit of the LA-homer effect, but what do you guys think? The guy who I was going to play through says the drop in the LA line (-7.5 to -6) is because a "lot of professional gamblers are betting it down". Believable?
My interest in this game stems because I think the line is horribly off here. I think it should be -10 at the worst and probably closer -14 but I'm looking for some confirmation from you guys. This will likely be my largest play of the CFB season, between $10k-$15k. I know that's not much to some of you, but it's a really large bet from me.
As always, thoughts are appreciated.
As an afterthought, I was thinking about running a 6.5 point teaser with
Tenn -1
USC -13 -110
