Tenn / UCLA week 1

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How do you think people make money in the stock market? Please answer.

Much of sports handicapping is common sense but people like you that have nothing to back up your play other than "it feels right" or "I think they will cover, I just have a feeling" will and do lose long-term.

when did i say it feels right?

UT has the better team plain and simple.

this isnt the stock market, financial trends are based on consumers trends really. a sampling of millions or billions of people. and its still not very useful. just like sports gambling, money in the market (if made consistently) is made from information about CURRENT product.

using your logic the the entire world should just quit working and follow stock trends eh ?
 

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The problem is that most people are too lazy to do the work. People want the money but don't want to do the work necessary to do it. That's good though. People aren't very smart. That makes it easy for those that are - as long as you're willing to put in the time and work required.

People that make a living or supplement their income through the stock market would probably disagree with you. I think they know a little more about the subject than you do. Keep betting with your gut or flipping a coin or whatever you do. I am moving on to talk to smarter and more open-minded people that don't fly off the handle because someone doesn't agree with them.
 

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Wow, you sure are bitter. You can't let someone else have their opinion? Only you can state your opinion?


no , i offered a way to measure the issue we disagreed on. how can anyone say UCLA has great players? the polls disagree.

where do you draw the line? i could randomly say MTSU has great players even though Troy beat the hell out of em.
 

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The problem is that most people are too lazy to do the work. People want the money but don't want to do the work necessary to do it. That's good though. People aren't very smart. That makes it easy for those that are - as long as you're willing to put in the time and work required.


ok so you no longer work right? you follow trends and make a living? if not , how do you know its possible? who do you know that does this?

see my point - youve been sold a dream. that dream is that you can outsmart the books using data.

no offense to you. i meant no harm. i just get upset when i see people who believe that stuff. i picture you givining your CC # to that dude from the sham-wow commerical.

im in sales myself, maybe thats why i get so angry - i deep down hate my customers - i dunno
 

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the polls??? LOL. Please don't tell me you pay attention to the polls by people who probably watch one UCLA game a year (I am just using UCLA as an example). Or a poll done by coaches who don't get to watch any games all weekend. Polls are the most subjective method of ranking possible. Those people were really right on Michigan last year weren't they? Or how about the people that voted South Florida #2 in the country at one time? I pay absolutely no attention to polls.

no , i offered a way to measure the issue we disagreed on. how can anyone say UCLA has great players? the polls disagree.

where do you draw the line? i could randomly say MTSU has great players even though Troy beat the hell out of em.
 

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Who said I didn't work? I work and I have been handicapping games for two years and I have more money than I had when I started. The name of the game is discipline and having a proven method that will work. Not getting frustrated during bad streaks and doing something stupid and losing your bankroll is the real key. Sticking to what you know and how you've been winning. I haven't been sold any dream. I have made a nice second income doing what I do - I started with a set amount of money two years ago this month and have grown it by more than I could have had I put it on a mutual fund or a fast-growing stock. Money management and discipline. That and winning around 55-57% is all you need to do. I have realistic expectations. Maybe you've sold yourself short.

ok so you no longer work right? you follow trends and make a living? if not , how do you know its possible? who do you know that does this? Agian, what are you talking about? Sham-wow? Long-distance providers? Bottled water? I haven't paid a penny for any scams or touts plays. I can do the work on my own and it's more rewarding anyway.

see my point - youve been sold a dream. that dream is that you can outsmart the books using data.

no offense to you. i meant no harm. i just get upset when i see people who believe that stuff. i picture you givining your CC # to that dude from the sham-wow commerical.

im in sales myself, maybe thats why i get so angry - i deep down hate my customers - i dunno
 

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the polls??? LOL. Please don't tell me you pay attention to the polls by people who probably watch one UCLA game a year (I am just using UCLA as an example). Or a poll done by coaches who don't get to watch any games all weekend. Polls are the most subjective method of ranking possible. Those people were really right on Michigan last year weren't they? Or how about the people that voted South Florida #2 in the country at one time? I pay absolutely no attention to polls.


ill agre with ya. polls are subjective as hell, but its a quick indicator of a teams general status. and UCLA is not an elite team this year (with "great players")
 

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Who said I didn't work? I work and I have been handicapping games for two years and I have more money than I had when I started. The name of the game is discipline and having a proven method that will work. Not getting frustrated during bad streaks and doing something stupid and losing your bankroll is the real key. Sticking to what you know and how you've been winning. I haven't been sold any dream. I have made a nice second income doing what I do. Maybe you've sold yourself short.


i dont understand though? if trends are useful tools, why not quit your job and bet on trends, or invest in trends. if they are above 60% reliablity then you are wasting your time workign a real job. there are enough sports to keep you busy 24 hrs a day with some sort of trend to swallow
 

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There is more than one way to skin a cat. Why not have a nice income and supplement it with other ways of making money as well? There's enough time in the day to get it all done. Hard work never killed anybody.

i dont understand though? if trends are useful tools, why not quit your job and bet on trends, or invest in trends. if they are above 60% reliablity then you are wasting your time workign a real job. there are enough sports to keep you busy 24 hrs a day with some sort of trend to swallow
 

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There is more than one way to skin a cat. Why not have a nice income and supplement it with other ways of making money as well. There's enough time in the day to get it all done. Hard work never killed anybody.


right. and using trends is the ultimate in laziness and not doing work. you are not looking at current teams /coaches skills or makeup. instead relying on and gaining comfort from an arbitray number from an unrelated game
 

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Rightttttttttttt. Trends are one factor I look at. Just one of many. So when I mentioned Neuheisal, Chow, Walker, the QB that started 6 games, etc. I was only looking at trends? You have to look at all aspects from the long-term trend and history to the matchups, to who the team just played, who they have coming up next, etc,etc. I could go on a day. Come on man. There are many factors that go into making a play. Stop trying to put words in people's mouths. I am very selective and rarely play more than 4 games in a day. If I were basing everything off trends only that wouldn't make much sense would it? Why so bitter? You can win at this, just use good money management and stay disciplined.
 

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Rightttttttttttt. Trends are one factor I look at. Just one of many. So when I mentioned Neuheisal, Chow, Walker, the QB that started 6 games, etc. I was only looking at trends? You have to look at all aspects from the long-term trend and history to the matchups, to who the team just played, who they have coming up next, etc,etc. I could go on a day. Come on man. There are many factors that go into making a play. Stop trying to put words in people's mouths. I am very selective and rarely play more than 4 games in a day. If I were basing everything off trends only that wouldn't make much sense would it? Why so bitter? You can win at this, just use good money management and stay disciplined.

bitter? just trying to help you. if you place any weight in a 1985 UCLA game when you make your wager for this game you are making a mistake.

i cant be any more clear.

now i got to sleep
 

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You seem awfully stuck on 1985. All I said that was going back to 1985 they haven't failed to cover a spread as a home underdog of more than 7. I cannot be any more clear. Their recent and long-term success as a home underdog is just one of MANY reasons why I like UCLA in this game. I pointed out others in my first two posts about this game. Yes, you seem bitter. Sorry, no offense but I don't need your help.
 

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Alright people...for my first post Id like to help everyone out....

TAKE TENN and LAY BIG!!

The best breakdown your gonna get right her. Matchup vs matchup:

UCLA DBs vs Tennessee QBs/WRs/TEs

UCLA's defense was not the problem in an up-and-down 2007, but some significant pieces from last year's stellar secondary are no longer around. Coordinator Dewayne Walker has a solid reputation as a defensive backs' coach, but he's working with three new starters and some unproven reserves. The returning starter, junior corner Alterraun Verner is a good one though. Verner led the Bruins with tackles a year ago and has returned three of his six career interceptions for touchdowns. Walker will most likely be able to turn to upperclassmen to fill out the starting four, but no one in the group has any starting experience. They also aren't likely to have the benefit of a strong pass rush.
This is a huge game for Jonathan Crompton, but that's really more about perception and confidence than it is about his team needed a big game from him to win. Crompton just has to be solid for Tennessee to win on Monday, but he has the ability, and also the receiving corps to be a lot more than that. The Vols will probably benefit (as UCLA will when it has the ball) of being a little bit of an unknown going for them in Dave Clawson's first game calling the plays. Crompton has the kind of targets on the perimeter (Gerald Jones in particular), who can make things happen. Tight ends Brandon Warren and Luke Stocker should both be big factors.
Edge to Tennessee


UCLA LBs vs Tennessee RBs

UCLA has a pair of veterans back at linebacker with Ryan Bosworth on the strongside and Reggie Carter in the middle. The two were a big reason the Bruins ranked second in the PAC-10 a year ago--and among the best in the nation--at defending the run, holding opponents to a very respectable 109 yards per game. Carter has started 20 games in his career and is a all-conference caliber player. Senior John Hale is moving into the starting line-up for the first time in his career (he made three starts because of injury) on the weakside and will be someone that the Vols may target.
This position looks as strong as any on the offense. Fifth-year Arian Foster is as solid as it gets at the position, and he looks poised for a big year after a strong offseason. Montario Hardesy looks completely healthy for the first time in a long time, and when he's 'right', the junior is an explosive back capable of taking it the distance from anywhere. Tennessee should have a big advantage in the ground game, in part because of the experience and talent of these two veterans. Lennon Creer and Tauren Poole have had a spirited battle for the third string spot and both look capable if called upon.
Edge to Tennessee


UCLA DL vs Tennessee OL

This is an area on defense that has to be of concern for the Bruins. There's some experience here, but the staff is also counting heavily on some guys holding up after serious injuries. One of those is senior tackle Brigham Harwell, the most experienced player on the team with 29 career starts under his belt. He missed all but two games a year ago. Brian Price had a strong freshman season and he and Harwell give the Bruins a solid pair of anchors in the middle. Depth at tackle is a big concern though. The ends return a pair of players--Tom Blake and Korey Bosworth--who were part-time starters in '07, neither looks to be a 'game-changer.' The Bruins recorded 38 sacks a year ago, but the players responsible for more than half that total are gone from the roster.
With the top six lineman back from last year this entire unit looks sound for the Vols. Expectations are high, and they seem justified. However, the line still has something to prove, specifically Tennessee needs to show that it can be a dominant running team. All the pieces are in place, and the pressure is on to improve from being one of the weakest rushing teams in the SEC a year ago (134 yards per game, No. 9 in the league). The Vols were the best in the nation last year at preventing sacks, which bodes well for new starter Crompton, but he'll benefit even more from a strong ground game. UCLA isn't the pushover up front that some observers might make them out to be, but Tennessee should have the horses to win this match-up, perhaps convincingly if the offense can hold the ball enough to bring the Bruins' shaky depth into play.
Edge to Tennessee


UCLA QBs/WRs/TEs vs Tennessee DBs

This match-up brings a lot of intrigue but from this perspective it looks to be heavily skewed in Tennessee's favor. Bruins' quarterback Kevin Craft is making his first start for the program after transferring from junior-college. He put up huge numbers as JUCO-All-American a year ago, but needless to say this is going to be a different challenge. He's got some experienced targets at receiver, but no one that you'd necessarily classify as a legitimate home-run threat. Fifth year senior Marcus Everett (82 career receptions) who missed all but one game in 2007 with an ankle injury, is a proven target, but not a big downfield threat. Sophomore Dominique Johnson (23 catches, 323 yard in '07) is a player to watch for the Bruins on the perimeter. Terrance Austin is an undersized speedster who hasn't been utilized much in the past. Norm Chow historically likes to use his tight ends, but the Bruins aren't exactly loaded at the position. Senior Logan Paulson had just 12 catches for 144 yards a year ago.
All summer long people pointed to the Vols' defensive backfield as the strength of the defense and the group hasn't done anything in fall camp to suggest that won't be the case. Super soph Eric Berry is a bona fide star in the making at safety and a player capable of changing the momentum of a game at any point. The return of Demetrice Morley bolsters the safety spot to the point that it may be the strongest pair in the nation. The corner spots are deep with senior Deangelo Willingham taking a huge step this offseason to emerge as a potential lock-down cover guy. Sophomore Dennis Rogan is also capable of being a top-flight defender. Both back-up corners--Marsalous Johnson and Antonio Gaines--have starting experience and give the unit impressive depth. Tennessee has the ability to be extremely multiple in its coverage schemes thanks to so much returning experience, something that should present some problems to a new starter like Craft.
Edge to Tennessee


UCLA RBs vs Tennessee LBs

Like other spots on the roster, how the Bruins end up looking here will have a lot to do with how players bounce back from injury. Starter Khalil Bell rushed for 795 yards in eight games last fall before a knee injury cut his season short and kept him out of spring practice. He has reportedly looked good in fall camp, and if healthy he is a solid talent. His back up is Raymond Carter, is making his own way back from a knee injury he suffered in fall camp a year ago. Carter, a redshirt freshman, is a former big-time recruit but a complete unknown after the injury. This position is not deep, and beyond Bell completely unproven. Bell has shown that he can get the job done against top competition (142 yards on 22 carries vs. Cal last year) but the shaky depth, along with the health concerns of the top two backs don't make this look like a position of strength for the Bruins.
The Vols are replacing two starters in the linebacking corps and the battle at strongside linebacker is still up in the air. What the Vols do have in place is a proven commodity on the weakside in junior Rico McCoy. McCoy was second on the defense with 106 tackles a year ago and will step into the designated 'playmaker' role left by Jerod Mayo's departure. The 'X' factor here could be fifth-year senior Ellix Wilson. He's bided his time and after being a solid contributor whenever called upon, he now gets his chance in the spotlight. Wilson has had a good camp, but he'll have to prove he's up to the task of patrolling the middle in the SEC. Watch out for "newcomer' #57 Gerald Williams. He WILL make some big plays.
Edge to Tennessee


UCLA OL vs Tennessee DL

On a team that is entering the 2007 season with an abundance of question marks, this unit may be the weakest link of all. And that's not a good sign given the quarterback situation. New offensive line coach Bob Palcic has his work cut out for him. The Bruins returned only two starters from last year's mediocre offensive front--tackle Micah Kia and center Micah Reed--and then lost Kia to a broken hand in the second week of camp. The junior reportedly returned to practice this week with a cast on the hand and is expected to try and play in Monday's contest. The Bruins gave up 35 sacks a year ago and averaged only 3.7 yards a carry (though Bell's injury hurt them there). It's hard to see where the improvement is going to come from with so much inexperience up front. It's hard to overstate just how porous this unit might be unless some guys come from out of nowhere and emerge as legitimate players.
This unit has drawn more questions than probably any on the Vols' roster in the offseason. The questions aren't so much about the four starters, but more so about what is some unproven depth. The starting line seems to have solidified itself during camp, and there's some cautious optimism about what this group might be able to get done. Robert Ayers needs to come to the forefront if this group is going to be explosive. Dan Williams has developed into a difference-maker at tackle. Sophomore ends Chris Walker and Ben Martin must grow up in a hurry. This group will be put to the test early in the season, but it probably won't happen this week.
Edge to Tennessee


UCLA Special Teams vs Tennessee Special Teams

UCLA should have the advantage here with the return of two accomplished perfomrers at the kicking spots. Sophomore kicker Kai Forbath was one of the top freshman in the nation at his position a year ago, making 25-of-30 field goal attempts. He connected on five field goals from 50-yards or more and his .833 percentage ranked sixth in the nation. Senior Aaron Perez got off 91 punts last fall thanks to the Bruins' shaky offense. He averaged 42.2 yards per attempt, good for second in the Pac-10. Receiver Terrance Austin ranked fifth in the league last year with a 10.0 average on punt returns. Austin is also a candidate to handle kickoff returns.
Tennessee is in good shape here but for the slight (ok, not so slight) issue of Britton Colquitt's suspension. That has put sophomore Chad Cunningham squarely in the crosshairs in the opener. Cunningham isn't completely untested though, having filled in for an injured Colquitt early last fall, but he is a key figure in this one. Kicker Daniel Lincoln is a proven commodity after a standout freshman year. The return game is dangerous with Dennis Rogan handling punts and kickoffs. Rogan is no stranger to making big plays with the ball in his hand. Coverage units need to pick up where they left off last year.
Edge to UCLA, slightly



Feel confident and lay big baby!!
 

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Chris Paradise = top therx homer

Vols -7 for 2000 units

what else you expect me to say?:)


jst thought id pop in and say hi , practice starting has me excited

Chris Paradise,

Being not only the top Tennessee homer at therx, but the top homer for any team, this bump is for you.

:drink:
 

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Hey CP, after last year's ass-whuppin in W1 we thought we'd spot you 2 starting QB's 4 picks with the Pac's 6th place team. What more the hell do you guys need to win a game out west anyway?

Tell you what, next time try Nevada or San Jose, they're WAC and more your speed.
 

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Oh Chris Paradise, where are you? My oh my. My trends win again. Too bad they don't mean anything. Way to start your season. Didn't I warn you about betting on your own team?
 

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Hey CP, after last year's ass-whuppin in W1 we thought we'd spot you 2 starting QB's 4 picks with the Pac's 6th place team. What more the hell do you guys need to win a game out west anyway?

Tell you what, next time try Nevada or San Jose, they're WAC and more your speed.


:lol:


:pope:


:cripwalk:
 

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