Synthetic MLs

[OzCap]

Been a while since a good candidate came up, but liking the Valencia/Deportivo matchup tomorrow. Not much to write up that the table doesn't tell you at a glance; Valencia is challenging for a European spot and Deportivo is simply surviving in Spain's top division. Current ML on Valencia is running @ $1.42, which isn't so terrible, but looking to improve those odds:

1.623 Units on AH(-1.5) @ $2.14
0.377 Units on 2-1 @ $9.20

Effectively puts 2 units on the line for a $1.74 return (extra risk is on the 1-0 (mostly) and 3-2 (minor) results).

Not adding any secondary bets on this one.

Good luck.
Oz

 

[OzCap]

Actually, adding the Aberdeen (Sco Prem) game too, they should sleepwalk through this game... Using same method (don't expect them to only win 1-0 and Motherwell is not likely to score more than 1...)

1.706 Units on -1.5 @ $1.775
0.294 Units on 2-1 @ $10.31

Overall, risking 2 units to win 1.03 units. ($1.52 odds vs ML of $1.28-1.30)

Good luck
Oz

 

[OzCap]

Two good synthetic wins as Aberdeen win 2-1 and Valencia win 2-0, 2-0 and +2.77 units on the day.

Overall 54-22-1 and +15.33 units (100 Units/ 15.3% ROI)

Best
Oz

 

[OzCap]

Going to Spain and Real Madrid for a solid winning bet where it would be good to improve the odds, going to spread the love over two types of synthetic ML today as I have a little hesitancy with the size of the AH (3 goals) for Real.

Primary:

0.322 Units on 2-0 @ $8.00
0.234 Units on 2-1 @ $11.00
0.344 Units on 3-0 @ $7.50
0.286 Units on 3-1 @ $9.00
0.322 Units on 4-0 @ $8.00
0.234 Units on 4-1 @ $11.00
0.258 Units on 5-0 @ $10.00

Effectively risking 2 units to win 0.58 units (~ $1.29 odds vs a paltry ML of $1.09, so, we are tripling the return with this method).

Adding:

0.718 Units on -2.5 @ $1.66
0.149 Units on 2-0 @ $8.00
0.133 Units on 3-1 @ $9.00


Effectively risking 1 unit to return 0.19 units (yes, not a huge return, but more than double 0.09 units on the ML...). Carries similar risk as before (1-0 in particular), but less risk in a runaway game/shootout (e.g., 5-2/6-2), hence the reduced odds.

Good luck!
Oz

 

[OzCap]

Adding one more from the continent, going back to Porto who have treated us well, another walk in the park for them against Arouca, will risk there being no 1-0 result once again and run this one a little higher:

1.341 Units on AH(-2.5) @ $2.18
0.450 Units on 2-0 @ $6.50
0.209 Units on 3-1 @ $14.00

Effectively risking 2 units to win 0.92 units ($1.46 vs a ML of $1.11...a 300% improvement in line!...really only add risk at 1-0, I nearly went 3 units on this play as I really like the odds of that NOT happening).

Good luck!
Oz

 

[OzCap]

Well an early red card for Porto sank that bet, but Real came through, leaving us 2-1 pm the day and -1.23 units.

Overall 56-23-1 and +14.10 units (105 Units wagered; 13.4% ROI)

 

[OzCap]

Adding one from the Scottish Cup today: Celtic to beat Dundee Utd. Even though Celtic have had a couple of tough results recently there is plenty of evidence to show they are the better team here and should advance (in regulation). But as it is a cup match I am keeping the total wager on the low side as these can be surprising at times. Going with a correct score basket in favor of Celtic:

0.150 Units on 1-0 @ $9.50
0.204 Units on 2-0 @ $7.00
0.130 Units on 2-1 @ $11.00
0.178 Units on 3-0 @ $8.00
0.124 Units on 3-1 @ $11.50
0.130 Units on 4-0 @ $11.00
0.084 Units on 4-1 @ $17.00

Effectively wagering 1 unit to return 0.43 units (~$1.43 vs ML of $1.25, so ~70% improvement in return with the only additional risk being Celtic scoring 5+ goals or Dundee scoring 2+, neither of which show up in my analysis as significant).Go

Good luck
Oz

 

[OzCap]

A 4-0 win for Celtic leaves us 1-0 and +0.43 units on the day.

Overall 57-23-1 and +14.53 units (106 Units wagered; 13.7% ROI)

Oz

 

[OzCap]

A good synthetic ML is Paris SG vs Lorient. Will be a decent number of goals in this, but shouldn't be excessive. Going with correct score basket to cover it as the AH doesn't yield a satisfactory result....

0.176 Units on 1-0 @ $7.50
0.203 Units on 2-0 @ $6.50
0.156 Units on 2-1 @ $8.50
0.165 Units on 3-0 @ $8.00
0.120 Units on 3-1 @ $11.00
0.102 Units on 4-0 @ $13.00
0.078 Units on 4-1 @ $17.00


Effectively wagering 1 unit to yield $1.32 (approx. a 30% improvement on ML of $1.24-1.25).

Staying at 1 unit as the gain is not great and I have 2 units on ML too.

Best
Oz

 

[OzCap]

PSG cover with a 3-1 victory leaving us 1-0 and +0.32 units.

Overall 58-23-1 and +14.85 units (107 Units wagered; 13.9% ROI)
Oz

 

[OzCap]

Early synthetic play with Man City in English Premiership. City have struggled a little lately, but should beat WBA with a good number of goals in the game.

Main play:

1.625 Units on AH (-1.5) @ $1.96
0.375 Units on 2-1 @ $8.50

Risking 2 units to return 1.19 units (~ $1.59 vs ML of $1.34 - 70% improvement in return with only real additional risk at 1-0).

Good luck
Oz

 

[OzCap]

Man City win comfortably 3-0 and so we go 1-0 and +1.19 units.

Overall 59-23-1 and +16.04 units (109 Units wagered; 14.7% ROI)

Oz

 

[OzCap]

Looking at Bayern to continue to their ridiculously dominant season in the German Bundesliga. Going up against a solid Borussia team, but they should be able to handle them and looking for a few goals in this game...

0.240 Units on 2-0 @ $6.50
0.164 Units on 2-1 @ $9.50
0.208 Units on 3-0 @ $7.50
0.142 Units on 3-1 @ $11.00
0.142 Units on 4-0 @ $11.00
0.104 Units on 4-1 @ $15.00

Effectively betting 1 unit to win 0.56 units (~$1.56 odds vs ML of $1.21-22, over a 100% improvement in odds, only real risk is 1-0 or Bayern just going goal crazy with 5+, which can happen, less likely against quality opposition).

Good luck!
Oz

 

[OzCap]

Lost the last game out as Bayern decided to choke when I start betting on them going 0-1 and -1 units on the day.

One for this Saturday, Man Utd up against Villa. Man U looking to secure a Champions League spot with Liverpool breathing down their neck, Man U been on a good run of form recently, including three great wins at Anfield (Liverpool), Spurs and Newcastle - have to think they will dispose of Villa without too much trouble. Man Utd owns this series and all factors look good for a Man U win within a reasonable scoreline. Going with a correct score basket:

0.405 Units on 1-0 @ $7.00
0.473 Units on 2-0 @ $6.00
0.258 Units on 2-1 @ $11.00
0.334 Units on 3-0 @ $8.50
0.218 Units on 3-1 @ $13.00
0.189 Units on 4-0 @ $15.00
0.123 Units on 4-1 @ $23.00

Effectively risking 2 units to win 0.84 units ($1.42 odds vs ML of $1.33, approx. 30% improvement)

Looking at a couple of other games that should fit the bill too.

Oz

 

[OzCap]

Going to Spa La Liga Prim. with Atletico Madrid. Looking for a clean sheet from Atletico as they pursue the win, going with a "to-zero" win here, without a crazy number of goals being scored:

0.347 Units on 1-0 @ $5.50
0.329 Units on 2-0 @ $5.80
0.212 Units on 3-0 @ $9.00
0.112 Units on 4-0 @ $17.00

Effectively risking 1 unit to win 0.91 units ($1.91 vs $1.43 on ML - effectively a 110% improvement on return).

Oz

 

[OzCap]

Third and final game of the day for synthetics...Juventus vs Napoli. Very nearly went with a "to-zero" here as well, but Napoli are respectable enough that even against a solid Juve defense I feel they may nick the odd goal...so...

0.462 Units on 1-0 @ $6.50
0.462 Units on 2-0 @ $6.50
0.334 Units on 2-1 @ $9.00
0.334 Units on 3-0 @ $9.00
0.231 Units on 3-1 @ $13.00
0.177 Units on 4-0 @ $17.00

Risking 2 units to win 1.00 units ($1.50 vs ML of $1.40 - a 25 % improvement).

Adding a secondary bet:
0.5 units on Juventus to "Win to Nil" @ $2.05

Best
Oz

 

[OzCap]

Man Utd win 3-1, Atletico and Juve both win 2-0, allowing us to go 4-0 and +3.28 units.

Updated record, overall 63-24-1 and +18.32 units (115.5 Units wagered; 15.9% ROI)

Best
Oz

 

[OzCap]

One game that looks good for today (and the odds have been moving in on the ML alllll day from $1.44 to $1.36)....Barcelona to win over Celta Vigo. Expect Barcelona to win handily and stifle a relatively inefficient Celta Vigo offense. Using Asian Handicap to help the cause.

1.656 Units on AH (-1.5) @ $1.943
0.344 Units on 2-1 @ $9.35

Effectively risking 2 units to win 1.22 units (~$1.61 odds vs current ML of $1.36 - an approx. 70% improvement, with the only additional "real" risk at 1-0 to Barca).

Good luck!
Oz

 

[BigMike23]

Wow this is an interesting system you got going on here. I'm all for the low risk high rewards plays.

I'm mad I just saw this now.

Keep it up Oz

 

[OzCap]

Thanks Mike, sorry if you started with the Barca play, picked the winner, but alas got stuck on the additional risk point of 1-0. 0-1 on the day and -2 units.

Updated record, overall 63-25-1 and +16.32 units (117.5 Units wagered; 13.9% ROI)

Oz