Synthetic MLs

[OzCap]

Going back to Galatasaray, not going to be as stingy on the correct scores this time, as that is what burned me last time - still surprised they came out of nowhere with a 4 goal outburst. This time they go against bottom of the table Balikesirspor and ought to be a walk in the park...so...

Primary:
0.297 Units on 1-0 @ $9.80
0.394 Units on 2-0 @ $7.37
0.288 Units on 2-1 @ $10.08
0.353 Units on 3-0 @ $8.24
0.257 Units on 3-1 @ $11.29
0.237 Units on 4-0 @ $12.26
0.173 Units on 4-1 @ $16.80

Overall, risking 2 units to profit 0.91 units (~$1.45 vs ML of $1.24 - roughly a 85% improvement in return).

Secondary:
0.5 units on Galatasaray to WIN & Total Goals OVER 1.5 @ $1.38 (will help hedge an outrageous result).

All in all risking 2.5 units for a potential return of 1.1 units (~$1.44).

Good luck
Oz

 

[OzCap]

Adding a second play for the day with Iraklis in Greek B (Group 2). Iraklis have been dominant in this group and have one of the best defenses (relative to opposition) in Europe right now. As such I strongly favor them for a clean sheet related result and looking to see them dominate again today against mid-table Aiginiakos. Going with a low scoring correct score basket:

0.303 Units on 1-0 @ $4.91
0.279 Units on 2-0 @ $5.32
0.151 Units on 2-1 @ $9.81
0.173 Units on 3-0 @ $8.58
0.094 Units on 3-1 @ $15.89

This has 2 units risked to return 0.98 units in profit ($1.49 vs ML of $1.35 - a 40% improvement). If you are feeling particularly brave, going for a 1-0/2-0/3-0 basket would yield $1.97 odds, but Aiginiakos is good enough for me to be considerate of the odd/stray goal.

Good luck
Oz

 

[OzCap]

Galatasaray wins 3-1 and Iraklis 2-1, leaving us 3-0 and +2.08 units on the day.

Overall 40-16-1 and +14.58 units (72 Units/ 20.3% ROI)

Oz

 

[OzCap]

Looking to Brazil for a synthetic play today: Early in the Carioca season, but Vasco Da Gama have looked very solid so far and their opponent Barra Mansa have struggled in the early going in their promotion, only scoring one goal in 4 games. With Vasco Da Gama holding homefield advantage coupled with a very solid defense, I would be surprised to see them lose this, but they are also not an offensive powerhouse this year, both of which lead me to think we can improve the ML odds with a correct score basket. Going to be conservative since it is early season...

0.277 Units on 1-0 @ $7.13
0.342 Units on 2-0 @ $5.77
0.179 Units on 2-1 @ $11.01
0.284 Units on 3-0 @ $6.95
0.148 Units on 3-1 @ $13.29
0.177 Units on 4-0 @ $11.13
0.092 Units on 4-1 @ $21.36



Overall, risking 1.5 units to win 0.47 units (~$1.32 odds vs $1.22 ML, a 45% improvement in return). Quite likely that Vasco Da Gama will hold a clean sheet here, but not going for it as part of a synthetic ML set-up.

Good luck
Oz

 

[OzCap]

Almost got away with this one as a last minute goals was ruled out for offside...0-1 and -1.5 units.

Overall 40-17-1 and +13.08 units (73.5 Units/ 17.8% ROI)

Oz

 

[OzCap]

Going back to Brazil Carioca today for another Synthetic ML as Flamengo take on Boavista RJ. Flamengo has had a slightly easier schedule so far, but appear to be the better team here. Not going into a detailed analysis, but expect a 2-0/2-1/3-0 scoreline in this game....going back to correct score...

0.544 Units on 2-0 @ $5.97
0.301 Units on 2-1 @ $10.79
0.456 Units on 3-0 @ $7.12
0.252 Units on 3-1 @ $12.89
0.288 Units on 4-0 @ $11.28
0.159 Units on 4-1 @ $20.48

Effectively yields 1.25 units of profit on 2 units risked ($1.62 odds vs ML of $1.23). Going to hedge this a little with:

0.310 units on 1-0 @ $7.46 (returns 100% of stake), effectively reducing the return from 1.25 units to 0.94 units ($1.47 odds, still doubling the return and pushing on 1-0).

Secondary:

0.5 units on Flamengo Only Team To Score @ $1.79

Good luck
Oz

 

[OzCap]

Flamengo helped us out with a solid 2-0 win, leaving us 2-0 also and +1.34 units on the day

Overall 42-17-1 and +14.41 units (76.3 Units/ 18.9% ROI)

Oz

 

[OzCap]

A few games that are good candidates for this method on Friday...starting with the big game in Italy (Serie A) - Juve vs Atalanta. Juve ought to be a great candidate for a clean sheet against a very weak Atalanta side, but Juve have been leaking goals a little the last few games so I am not as confident in that as I would have been a month ago. Nonetheless, going with a correct score basket:

0.264 Units on 1-0 @ $7.55
0.335 Units on 2-0 @ $5.95
0.180 Units on 2-1 @ $11.05
0.286 Units on 3-0 @ $6.97
0.154 Units on 3-1 @ $12.95
0.184 Units on 4-0 @ $10.83
0.099 Units on 4-1 @ $20.19


With this method 1.5 units profits 0.49 units (~$1.33 vs $1.19 on the ML, approx. 73% improvement in return).

Might look at a clean sheet bet in my main soccer thread.

Good luck
Oz

 

[OzCap]

Two more strong match ups that I like:

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Greek B
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Panahaiki 05 to beat Fostiras - classic David and Goliath match-up and I haven't seen a superlative offensive production from either side, so I am going to with a small basket of correct scores to try and really juice the return (doubling it!)


0.245 Units on 1-0 @ $6.52
0.274 Units on 2-0 @ $5.81
0.156 Units on 2-1 @ $10.21
0.207 Units on 3-0 @ $7.70
0.118 Units on 3-1 @ $13.56


1 unit to profit 0.59 units (vs ML of 1.29, a 100% improved return)


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Belgium Pro
---------------

Looking to Standard Liege to cruise past Waasland, thinking this should stay low scoring, but hedging out (return of stake only) the very high scores and adding a secondary bet to add return to anything above 1-0.


0.232 Units on 1-0 @ $7.01
0.269 Units on 2-0 @ $6.05
0.163 Units on 2-1 @ $10.01
0.209 Units on 3-0 @ $7.78
0.126 Units on 3-1 @ $12.89


High score hedge/protection:
0.087 Units on 4-0 @ $13.32
0.053 Units on 4-1 @ $22.11


1 unit to profit 0.49 units (vs ML of 1.29, 65% improved return)

Secondary:
0.25 units on Matchbet Std Liege to WIN & Total Goals OVER 1.5 @ $1.50


Good luck!
Oz

 

[OzCap]

A lot of work for not a lot of return since Std Liege decided it was OK to let in two goals.....Juventus and Panahaiki didn't disappoint though with 2-1 and 3-1 wins respectively - still positive units though...

On the day 3-1 and +0.08 units.
Overall 45-18-1 and +14.49 units (80.25 Units/ 18.1% ROI)

Oz

 

[OzCap]

Couple of great candidates on Saturday. Looking at Aberdeen in Scottish Premier and Partizan in the Serbian league.

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Scottish Prem
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Aberdeen is one of the two best teams in the league and St Mirren are struggling so going for a correct score basket where I don't expect Aberdeen to shoot lights out, on the off chance they go crazy in this one I have the 4-1 hedge in place to return the stake, but minimize the hit on the net odds.

0.440 Units on 1-0 @ $6.85
0.476 Units on 2-0 @ $6.33
0.317 Units on 2-1 @ $9.51
0.347 Units on 3-0 @ $8.69
0.230 Units on 3-1 @ $13.08
0.190 Units on 4-0 @ $15.89


2 units wagered to win 1.01 units (~$1.50 vs ML $1.36)


0.087 units on 4-1 @ $23.99 (stake return hedge)


Leaves net return at 0.923 units ($1.46 odds, about a 28% improvement in odds).

Might play a secondary clean sheet bet, but in my main soccer thread.


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Serbia
---------

Partizan is the class of Serbia once again and they have been dominant in this league, being particularly stingy on the goals front - going up against a relatively poor Vozdovac team that honestly shouldn't have much hope in this match up.

0.406 Units on 1-0 @ $6.47
0.471 Units on 2-0 @ $5.58
0.243 Units on 2-1 @ $10.82
0.367 Units on 3-0 @ $7.16
0.189 Units on 3-1 @ $13.91
0.215 Units on 4-0 @ $12.21
0.110 Units on 4-1 @ $23.82


2 units wagered to win 0.63 units (~$1.31 vs ML of $1.25)


Secondary bet:


0.5 units on Partizan as the only team to score @ $1.76


Good luck - hopefully we can go 2-for-2 and put a few more units in the bank!
Oz

 

[OzCap]

Adding a third game for the day, with Paris St Germain to win comfortably over Toulouse. PSG is having another fine season Ligue 1 (and Europe) and have been pretty consistent at home and through all play, including Europe - notably drawing with Chelsea (at home) and Lyon (on the road) - both of whom are in a different class to Toulouse. Given the typically low goals in Ligue 1 and that PSG has managed to hold most of it's opponents to very few goals, this one sets up nicely for a synthetic ML using low score correct scores and hedging the stake with 4-0/4-1.

0.370 Units on 1-0 @ $6.58
0.402 Units on 2-0 @ $6.06
0.251 Units on 2-1 @ $9.68
0.294 Units on 3-0 @ $8.29
0.183 Units on 3-1 @ $13.28

Effectively wagering 1.5 units to win 0.93 units. Hedging stake with 4-0/4-1:

0.111 Units on 4-0 @ $15.11
0.069 Units on 4-1 @ $24.27

Reducing net profit to 0.75 units (overall $1.50 odds vs ML of $1.33, roughly a 50% improvement)

Good luck
Oz

 

[OzCap]

Well Partizan had a metldown today and left us at 2-2 on the day and unfortunately the big one didn't come in this time leaving a -0.83 unit hole in the balance sheet.

Overall 47-20-1 and +13.66 units (86.25 Units/ 15.8% ROI)

Oz

 

[OzCap]

Backing Real Madrid to roll over Elche today. A true mismatch in all aspects of the game and the only advantage that Elche holds is home field, which I don't believe is enough to overcome the rest of the advantages that Real holds. Would normally back Real for a clean sheet in a game like this, but on the road there is often a stray goal as the home team gets that refereeing edge. Going with a full correct score basket:

0.289 Units on 1-0 @ $10.01
0.393 Units on 2-0 @ $7.38
0.283 Units on 2-1 @ $10.25
0.357 Units on 3-0 @ $8.11
0.257 Units on 3-1 @ $11.27
0.245 Units on 4-0 @ $11.83
0.176 Units on 4-1 @ $16.47

Overall 2 units risked for 0.90 units in profit ($1.45 vs a ML of $1.23, roughly a 100% increase in return).

Good luck
Oz

 

[OzCap]

Real comes through with a nice 2-0 win. We go 1-0 and +0.90 units (missed a good play on Celtic today too which is disappointing), giving us a small positive net on the weekend.

Overall 48-20-1 and +14.56 units (88.25 Units/ 16.5% ROI)

Oz

 

[OzCap]

One game that stands out today....in the Turkish Super league, Fenerbahce should win today, although they have let opponents stay in games until VERY late, so don't be surprised if this one stays a little closer than you would like longer into the game...

0.327 Units on 1-0 @ $9.00
0.420 Units on 2-0 @ $7.00
0.294 Units on 2-1 @ $10.00
0.346 Units on 3-0 @ $8.50
0.267 Units on 3-1 @ $11.00
0.184 Units on 4-0 @ $16.00
0.163 Units on 4-1 @ $18.00

Overall risking 2 units to win 0.94 units (effective odds of $1.47 vs $1.25 ML currently available, a healthy 88% improvement)

Good luck!

Oz

 

[OzCap]

Couple of good candidates today....best one first...In Portugal, Benfica coming out to play once again as an outstanding soccer team up against relatively poor Granada. Expecting a good number of goals, but don't expect it to go beyond 4-1...

0.371 Units on 1-0 @ $7.00
0.433 Units on 2-0 @ $6.00
0.247 Units on 2-1 @ $10.50
0.371 Units on 3-0 @ $7.00
0.216 Units on 3-1 @ $12.00
0.226 Units on 4-0 @ $11.50
0.137 Units on 4-1 @ $19.00

Effectively wagering 2 units to profit 0.59 units (~$1.29 vs ML of $1.21, about a 40% improvement)

Also putting 0.25 units on Benfica Only Team To Score @ $1.78

Good luck!
Oz

 

[OzCap]

After two tough losses (one outright, the first outright loss in this thread and one by the fact of too many goals!) going back to search in the English Championship: Middlesbrough home to a struggling Millwall side. Looking for a relatively low scoring affair:

0.260 Units on 1-0 @ $6.32
0.274 Units on 2-0 @ $6.00
0.183 Units on 2-1 @ $9.00
0.173 Units on 3-0 @ $9.50
0.110 Units on 3-1 @ $15.00

Effectively wagering 1 unit to 0.64 units in profit ($1.64 vs ML of $1.43)

Good luck!
Oz

 

[OzCap]

Following up with a Premier League game in England, Man City should cruise past Leicester, question is really how many goals. Man City coming off a loss against Liverpool and seeing their title hopes fading fast will want to rebound and will likely throw everything at the Foxes and Man City is a pretty prolific scoring team on any other day sooo....protecting a possible large score and ignoring the 1-0 to build value...

1.664 Units on AH (-1.5) @ $1.714
0.336 Units on 2-1 @ $8.50

Effectively returns 0.85 units on 2 units wagered ($1.425 vs ML of approx $1.25 - an 80% improvement in return).

Adding secondary bet:

0.5 units on Half-Time Man City WIN @ $1.65

Good luck!
Oz

 

[OzCap]

With Man City coming through, over the last four games: 4-2 and -2 units, courtesy of the two big losses with Benfica (6-0) and Galatasaray losing 2-1 against very weak opposition...

Overall 52-22-1 and +12.56 units (96 Units/ 13.1% ROI)
Oz