Synthetic MLs

[OzCap]

Surprisingly another day with multiple potential synthetic MLs, so no major write up here, going with a lot of similar theories and thinking as you have seen previously.

Scot Prem: Aberdeen vs Ross County:
0.484 Units on 1-0 @ $6.21
0.490 Units on 2-0 @ $6.14
0.313 Units on 2-1 @ $9.6
0.332 Units on 3-0 @ $9.06
0.212 Units on 3-1 @ $14.21
0.169 Units on 4-0 @ $17.83

Effectively betting 2 units to profit 1 unit (~$1.50 which is better than the $1.38 we are currently looking at)

Secondary bet:
0.5 Units on Aberdeen Clean Sheet @ 1.86


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Italy Serie A: Juventus vs AC Milan:

0.460 Units on 1-0 @ $6.54
0.488 Units on 2-0 @ $6.17
0.312 Units on 2-1 @ $9.65
0.258 Units on 3-0 @ $8.66
0.222 Units on 3-1 @ $13.56
0.168 Units on 4-0 @ $17.83

Effectively betting 2 units to profit 1 unit (~$1.50 vs around $1.37 current odds on ML)

Secondary bet:
0.5 units on Juventus to keep clean sheet @ $1.82

Might have one more that I am looking at a little more closely.

Good luck!
Oz

 

[OzCap]

Another game that I like, but want to improve the odds, back in Belgium, but in the Tweede, St Truiden to win over Dessel. Dessel appears to be in OK form, but St Truiden is easily the best team in the Tweede Klasse, having won 75% of their games and rarely giving up any points (and very few goals). Dessel definitely gives up the goals and I expect there to be a few in this match so I am going to build the synthetic ML using the AH(-1.5) as the basis, expecting a 2-1/3-0/3-1 type scoreline.

Primary:

1.261 Units on AH(-1.5) @ $1.8929
0.239 Units on 2-1 @ $9.97



Effectively wagering 1.5 units to profit 0.89 units (~$1.59, compared with a $1.30 ML). There is of course risk at 1-0 and a very slight risk at 3-2, but effectively doubling the return for that risk.

Secondary:
0.25 units on St Truiden as the only team to score @ $1.91

Good luck
Oz

 

[OzCap]

Aberdeen win 4-0,Juventus 3-1 and St Truiden couldn't get it done (0-0). On the day 3-3 and +0.18 units.

Overall 29-9-1 and +12.22 units (48.0 Units/ 25.5% ROI)

Best
Oz

 

[OzCap]

Back to the Israeli Premier league for a Synthetic ML today...Maccabi TA should have no real troubles in their match with Netanya and so I am looking to juice the line a little...Kickoff is shortly so I am just going to show the play(s):

Primary (Correct Score)
0.338 Units on 1-0 @ $6.76
0.358 Units on 2-0 @ $6.39
0.254 Units on 3-0 @ $8.98
0.242 Units on 2-1 @ $9.43
0.172 Units on 3-1 @ $13.29
0.136 Units on 4-0 @ $16.80

Effectively wagering 1.5 units to profit 0.78 units (~$1.52 vs $1.39 on the ML, about a 30% improvement in value)

Good luck!
Oz

 

[OzCap]

Pushed my luck on that one today, really surprised at a 3-3 draw though. 0-1 and -1.5 units.

Overall 29-10-1 and +10.72 units (49.5 Units/ 21.7% ROI)

Oz

 

[OzCap]

Going to the Dutch 2nd division with NEC vs Jong PSV. Currently these two teams are at opposite ends of the division and NEC have been ruling the roost in style. They have a great defense and are allowing less than 1gpg and on the offense side have put in more than 2 per game, very strong averages. Couple this with a team that knows how to win (19-2-2) and you have a very tough opposition to face and Jong PSV (6-6-11 on the season and only 1-1-4 in their last 6) are at a huge disadvantage on the road. I expect NEC to win comfortably in this one (2 goals difference is likely and a clean sheet is a real possibility). A such, I am going with a correct score method with the following basket:

0.402 Units on 2-0 @ $8.15
0.328 Units on 2-1 @ $9.98
0.368 Units on 3-0 @ $8.89
0.300 Units on 3-1 @ $10.9
0.254 Units on 4-0 @ $12.9
0.207 Units on 4-1 @ $15.81
0.140 Units on 5-0 @ $23.36

Effectively wagering 2 units to win 1.27 units (~$1.64 vs a ML of $1.27)

Will look at the clean sheet as a secondary bet:

Secondary:
0.5 units on NEC as the only team to score @ $2.27

Good luck!
Oz

 

[OzCap]

A tough run over the last few days, don't normally see this many wrong in a row, but NEC won, but 5-2 (a score that was very unlikely and I didn't cover).

On the day 0-2 and -2.5 units.
Overall 29-12-1 and +8.22 units (52.0 Units/ 15.8% ROI)

Oz

 

[OzCap]

Adding one for today from England (Prem League): Arsenal vs Leicester. Arsenal fighting for European spots and playing at home I don't see them slipping up twice in a row and especially against the lowly Foxes. Not much time for a write-up suffice to say that Arsenal should cruise here, they have been knocking in a couple of goals per game and have a shot at a clean sheet too. Going back to the correct score well one more time and upping the ante a little as I have a lot of confidence in this scoreline.

0.582 Units on 2-0 @ $7.06 0.430 Units on 2-1 @ $9.56
0.478 Units on 3-0 @ $8.60
0.352 Units on 3-1 @ $11.67
0.295 Units on 4-0 @ $13.95
0.217 Units on 4-1 @ $18.96
0.145 Units on 5-0 @ $28.32

Overall, risking 2.5 units to profit 1.61 units (~$1.645 vs $1.31 ML).

No time to review secondary bets today unfortunately, but an Arsenal cleansheet looks like a decent value, or Arsenal scoring first.

Good luck
Oz

 

[OzCap]

Arsenal come through with a 2-1 win. Putting us 1-0 and +1.61 units on the day.

Overall 30-12-1 and +9.83 units (54.5 Units/ 18.0% ROI)

Oz

 

[OzCap]

Going to switch in a little Portuguese action today with Benfica playing Vitoria Setubal. Benfica has been absolutely Scrooge-like with goals and I really like a "to-zero" scoreline here. However, this is cup action and anything goes, but VS scoring a lot of goals is unlikely, am expecting them to be limited to a max of one goal (beyond that is a statistical tail type likelihood). Looking for a correct score primary bet and a secondary bet on the a clean sheet.

Primary:

0.509 Units on 2-0 @ $6.04
0.292 Units on 2-1 @ $10.54
0.420 Units on 3-0 @ $7.31
0.240 Units on 3-1 @ $12.79
0.261 Units on 4-0 @ $11.77
0.149 Units on 4-1 @ $20.66
0.129 Units on 5-0 @ $23.74

Wagering 2 units to profit 1.07 units (~$1.53 vs $1.24 for the ML...more than twice the profit, with really the only risk being at 1-0 scoreline).

Secondary:
1 unit on Benfica as the only team to score @ $1.83 (this will help hedge a potential 1-0 result in addition to being a likely result with a to-zero win)

Good luck!
Oz

 

[OzCap]

Benfica come through 3-0 and we go 2-0 and +1.90 units.

Overall 32-12-1 and +11.73 units (57.5 Units/ 20.4% ROI)

Oz

 

[OzCap]

Going back to Galatasaray (vs Konyaspor) in Turkish Cup for an improved ML. Currently the ML is a reasonable $1.59, but I believe this can be improved a little given the performance of both teams. Galatasaray has been in decent form and is always a threat to win (both domestic and international club games) and I believe they should do just enough here to win, probably an odd-goal victory, so we are going to keep the risk down with only 1 unit. Going with a limited Correct Score method for improving the odds:

0.250 Units on 1-0 @ $7.55
0.242 Units on 2-0 @ $7.79
0.212 Units on 2-1 @ $8.89
0.158 Units on 3-0 @ $11.97
0.138 Units on 3-1 @ $13.68

This will put 1 unit at risk to profit 0.89 units (improving the return by about 50% but with additional risk if Gal score more than 3 and/or Konyaspor score more than 1, but I am comfortable with that risk).

No secondary bets.

Good luck
Oz

 

[OzCap]

So Galatasaray decided to come alive on offense today...ugh...4-1 and so we lose out by the odd goal. 0-1 and -1 unit.

Overall 32-13-1 and +10.73 units (58.5 Units/ 18.3% ROI

Oz

 

[OzCap]

Back to an old favourite today, FC Porto....playing a good Guimaraes team,but Porto is the class side...another great opportunity for Porto to keep a clean sheet, but I think Guimaraes will give them more of a test than most other teams...

0.393 Units on 1-0 @ $6.63
0.470 Units on 2-0 @ $5.55
0.233 Units on 2-1 @ $11.20
0.378 Units on 3-0 @ $6.91
0.186 Units on 3-1 @ $14.00
0.228 Units on 4-0 @ $11.46
0.112 Units on 4-1 @ $23.29

Effective wagering 2 units to profit 0.6 units (~$1.30 vs $1.23 - increasing return by 30%)

Good luck
Oz

 

[OzCap]

Porto win 1-0 and our record is the same, 1-0 an +0.6 units.

Overall 33-13-1 and +11.33 units (60.5 Units/ 18.7% ROI)

Oz

 

[OzCap]

Saturday has two good candidates for this method so I am going to list them both (with relatively little reasoning...)

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N Ire Prem
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Looking at the league leading Crusaders to cruise through their fixture with Warrenpoint. These are rarely close affairs and Crusaders have been putting up a good number of goals over the last few games. As such, AH and higher end of correct scores are worth a look, and cleansheet for Crusaders is a real possibility as they have only allowed 1 goals in their last 5 home games - came from a very solid Linfield team.

Going to use Asian Handicap for this one as it is hard to tell how many goals Crusaders will score...

1.25 Units on Crusaders (-1.5) @ $1.91
0.25 Units on Crusaders Correct Score (2-1) @ $9.71

Overall, wagering 1.5 units to profit 0.9 units (approx. $1.60 vs current ML of $1.33 - an 80% improvement in profit, with only 1-0 and 3-2 being the real risk)

Will add:
0.25 Units on Crusaders as the only team to score @ $2.45

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Swiss Prem
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Going to back Basel in their relatively straightforward fixture with Sion. Basel are having a good season and look well positioned to take the title in Switzerland, and Sion is really struggling to score this season, ultimately leaving them in second to last place. Basel has an above average defense, but a great front line and as such is able to rely on goal scoring to win games (vs limiting opponents). They should be able to put 2 or 3 past Sion and limit them to no more than one goal. This shouldn't be a runaway scoreline for either team and I would expect a 2-1 type scoreline. Going with a Correct score method, but looking at a secondary bet too...

0.190 Units on 1-0 @ $8.27
0.209 Units on 2-0 @ $7.54
0.176 Units on 2-1 @ $8.97
0.153 Units on 3-0 @ $10.26
0.129 Units on 3-1 @ $12.21
0.089 Units on 4-0 @ $17.63
0.054 Units on 4-1 @ $29.33

Overall risking 1 unit to profit 0.57 units ($1.57 vs current ML of $1.45, approx a 25% improvement, with the only legitimate risk being that Basel's forward go berserk and score 5+ goals)

Adding:

0.25 units on Matchbet Basel to WIN and Total Goals OVER 1.5 @ $1.67

Good luck!
Oz

 

[OzCap]

One more for today: Real Madrid to win over Deportiva in La Liga. Real stumbled last time out against a decent Atletico team, but will most likely bounce back with a vengeance, at home against Deportivo, much a lower quality side in my opinion. Real can score a ridiculous number of goals on a frequent basis and so scorelines are difficult to produce, but when minimum AH are 2-3.5 goals, that is a very risky proposition in soccer betting (even with a team this good). Additionally, Real is not exactly a tight defense at the moment and so they are leaking goals enough that a clean sheet option doesn't seem good either (esp. @ $1.65!). Going to use a large basket of correct scores to try and account for both of these factors:

0.241 Units on 2-0 @ $8.50
0.129 Units on 2-1 @ $15.92
0.289 Units on 3-0 @ $7.10
0.154 Units on 3-1 @ $13.30
0.260 Units on 4-0 @ $7.88
0.139 Units on 4-1 @ $14.76
0.188 Units on 5-0 @ $10.91
0.100 Units on 5-1 @ $20.47

Here we have 1.5 units being risked for 0.55 units in profit (~$1.37 vs $1.10 ML....a 270% improvement in return, with the only risks being 1-0 and Deportivo scoring 2+ goals).

Good luck
Oz!

 

[OzCap]

Crusaders come through, but miss secondary bet at 4-1, Sion give up a half-time penalty losing both bets and Real seal with a comfortable win. Overall 2-3 and -0.06 units.


Overall 35-16-1 and +11.27 units (65 Units/ 17.3% ROI)

Oz

 

[OzCap]

Well, twice in the same week?? Benfica/Vitoria Setubal. Going to play it exactly the same way, esp since the ML has gotten even worse since that last victory...

Correct score basket:

0.488 Units on 2-0 @ $5.93
0.242 Units on 2-1 @ $11.93
0.441 Units on 3-0 @ $6.56
0.219 Units on 3-1 @ $13.23
0.300 Units on 4-0 @ $9.65
0.148 Units on 4-1 @ $19.52
0.163 Units on 5-0 @ $17.74

Risking 2 units to profit 0.89 units (~$1.45 vs $1.20 on the ML)

Secondary:

0.5 Units on Benfica the only team to score @ $1.67

Good luck!
Oz

 

[OzCap]

Benfica delivers again with a 3-0 victory allowing us to yield 1.23 units on a 2-0 day.


Overall 37-16-1 and +12.50 units (67.5 Units/ 18.5% ROI)

Oz