Synthetic MLs

[OzCap]

Looking at Galatasaray in the Turkish Cup on 1/23. Simply put, their opponent, Diyarbakir are wayyy out of their depth in this match up - with Gal. beating them 4-1 in the first leg at Diyarbakir. Galatsaray might rotate in some bench players for experience, but I anticipate another big win. As always, the hard part is estimating the chances of Gal. allowing one goal when they seem to allow nearly one goal every game (only 3 clean sheets in the last 10), but they nearly always have a large number of goals in their games. With this simple analysis I am looking to build some value with the following bets:

Galatasaray (-2.5) @ $1.82
Galatasaray only team to score @ $1.58
Galatasaray to WIN & total goals over 2.5 @ $1.38
Galatasaray correct score "-to-zero"
Galatasaray European Handicap (+1) (which means Galatasaray -1.5)

Going to with:

2 units on Galatasary (Euro Handicap) (-1.5) @ $1.31
1 unit on Matchbet of Galatasaray WIN & Total Goals OVER 2.5 @ $1.38

Nets out to 3 units at risk for a return of 1 unit (~$1.33).

Best
Oz

 

[OzCap]

Well, not much to be said except that Galatasaray did everything but score...losing 2-0 and a loss of 3 units on the day.

Overall 13-2-1 and +5.84 units (20.25 Units/ 28.8% ROI)

Oz

 

[OzCap]

Good candidate for a synthetic ML on Saturday is Celtic (vs Ross County). Celtic already helped us out earlier in the week with a resounding 4-0 win over Motherwell, this is an overall similar story, except Ross County is worse than Motherwell (although Celtic is now on the road). Ross County have lost 2/3 of their games this year and are 1-0-9 at home (awful!). Ross county have gotten a few respectable draws recently, but Celtic are now top of the table and I expect them to want to reinforce that position over Aberdeen by securing all three points against Ross County. So, going with an AH/correct score synthetic in this case:

1.732u on Celtic (-1.5) @ $1.63
0.268u on Correct Score Celtic:Ross County (2:1) @ $10.47

Nets out to be around 0.82 units return on 2 units wagered (~$1.41 vs $1.23).

One or two other possibilities out there, going to run permutations and bring any good ones back.
Oz

 

[OzCap]

Well, got the winning team right, but got burned by the one result that could burn...1-0...down 2 units on the day. That's two straight, but no worried, this is a profitable method when used right (as evidenced by the return so far).

Today 0-1 and -2 units.
Overall 13-3-1 and +3.84 units (22.25 Units/ 17.3% ROI)

Oz

 

[OzCap]

Good candidate for this on Sunday is Lyon (vs Metz). Two sides at either end of the French Div 1 and honestly going in opposite directions in terms of success. Metz, struggles to score (especially on the road, with only 3 goals in 11 games on away from home) and Lyon has a pretty stingy defense, allowing only 17 goals in 21 games (including an excellent 5 allowed in 11 games at home). Lyon is the class of the French league this season (in my humble opinion) and Metz, well...not so much. As with most French league games I am not expecting a staggering number of goals, even Lyon rarely scores more than 3 and it is most likely they will be the only team scoring in this affair.

I see value in the following:

Lyon the only team to score @ $2.15
Lyon AH(-1) @ $1.59
Lyon & Total Goals OVER (1.5) @ $1.63
Lyon clean sheet @ $1.92
Lyon/Metz Correct Scores

Using the Correct Scores as a primary (ignoring wins above 3-1, will hedge that a little with a secondary bet):

0.24u Correct Score (1-0) @ $7.08
0.26u Correct Score (2-0) @ $6.54
0.18u Correct Score (2-1) @ $9.39
0.19u Correct Score (3-0) @ $9.00
0.13u Correct Score (3-1) @ $12.94

1 Unit risked to profit 0.7 units, with additional risk at scoreline where Metz score 2 or Lyon score more than 3.

Secondary bets:
1 unit Lyon and Total Goals OVER (1.5) @ $1.63
0.5 unit on Lyon the only team to score @ $2.15

Overall outlaying 2.5 unit with a potential win of 1.91units (~ $1.76)

Good luck!
Oz

 

[OzCap]

Lyon come through 2-0, leaving us 3-0 and +1.91 units on the day.

Overall 16-3-1 and +5.75 units (24.75 Units/ 23.2% ROI)

Oz

 

[OzCap]

Another Welsh League game that looks good for a Synthetic ML....TNS LLansant vs Carmarthen. TNS is the class of the Welsh Premier League and Carmarthen are a 2nd tier team, so certainly capable of scoring, but should be very likely to upset TNS while TNS is playing at home. TNS can flat out score in this league with 61 goals and +45 goal difference in 21 games...and average of 3-1 scoreline (pretty outrageous really). 95% of both teams' games have gone 2+ goals and that should continue here, additionally both teams do leak goals and so there is a good shot at both teams scoring in this game too (something to be aware of when building these replacement MLs). Not much to look at on the recent, common opponent analysis except NEWI Cefn, but they both beat a weak team so not much to garner from that. No meaningful injuries, and TNS has the better recent form (8-2-0 vs 4-2-4 in the last 10) with TNS winning 6 of the last 8 meetings between these teams including their last game in October (2-1). Expecting a similar scoreline here.

Consider:

TNS to win (@ $1.20)
TNS & Over 1.5 (@ $1.29)
TNS (-1.5) @ $1.54
Both teams to Score @ $1.86
TNS correct scores "to-0" and "to-1"

Going with correct scores as the primary...

0.41u on 2-0 @ $8.44
0.31u on 2-1 @ $11.05
0.41u on 3-0 @ $8.40
0.31u on 3-1 @ $11.00
0.31u on 4-0 @ $11.10
0.24u on 4-1 @ $14.55

Effectively risking 2u to profit 1.46u (~$1.73)

Adding 1 unit on TNS & OVER 1.5

Good luck!
Oz

 

[OzCap]

TNS come through with a 3-0 win, leaving us 2-0 and +1.73u.

Overall 18-3-1 and +7.48 units (27.75 Units/ 27.0% ROI)

Oz

 

[OzCap]

One good opportunity from the Belgian Pro League today...Club Brugge vs Oostende. Brugge is having a great season and Oostend is settling in midtable. It's hard to argue with the relative form of both teams and most rating systems have Brugge as by far the better team. With 5 clean sheets in their last 10 game Brugge has opportunity to do the same against oostende, but that would literally be a 50:50 proposition by my reckoning so I am not likely to pursue with the current odds sitting right around $2. Not expecting Oostende to put in more than one goal and not expecting Brugge to go beyond 4 so I am going to go with the same path as last time (correct score to-0 and to-1) as the odds will allow it, skipping 1-0 as, by analysis, we should see Brugge get at least two goals.

The simple bets are Brugge to win (@ $1.20), Brugge and Over 1.5 (@ $1.31), but the correct score breakdown is:

0.24 units on 2-0 @ $7.10
0.16 units on 2-1 @ $10.34
0.21 units on 3-0 @ $7.86
0.15 units on 3-1 @ $11.45
0.14 units on 4-0 @ $11.56
0.17 units on 4-1 @ $9.91

Essentially risking 1 unit to return 0.67 units of profit (~$1.67 which is better than the odds above).

No secondary bets that I like on this match.

Good luck
Oz

 

[OzCap]

Brugge holds on to a nice 2-0 win (Oostende helped with an early red card) and so we are 1-0 and+0.67 units.

Overall 19-3-1 and +8.15 units (28.75 Units/ 28.3% ROI)

Oz

 

[OzCap]

Multiple options for Synthetic MLs on Saturday (very unusual, but I will take them all...)

Welsh Prem: TNS vs Port Talbot

0.214 Units on 2-0 @ $7.93
0.158 Units on 2-1 @ $10.75
0.209 Units on 3-0 @ $8.14
0.154 Units on 3-1 @ $11.05
0.153 Units on 4-0 @ $11.1
0.113 Units on 4-1 @ $15.09

Effectively betting 2 units to profit 1.40 units ($1.70 vs win odds of $1.20)

Secondary Bet:
1 unit on Matchbet of TNS WIN & Over 1.5 goals @ $1.30

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Real Madrid/Sociedad:

0.227 Units on 2-0 @ $7.34
0.158 Units on 2-1 @ $10.55
0.213 Units on 3-0 @ $7.85
0.148 Units on 3-1 @ $11.29
0.150 Units on 4-0 @ $11.13
0.104 Units on 4-1 @ $16.05

Overall bettings 2 units to profit 1.34 units (Net $1.67)

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Benfica vs Boavista

Benfica has a stingy defense and arguably the best team in Portugal vs an average Boavista. Looking at Asian Handicap/correct scores ('to-0') and clean sheets for value.

0.225 Units on 1-0 @ $7.81
0.305 Units on 2-0 @ $5.75
0.279 Units on 3-0 @ $6.3
0.192 Units on 4-0 @ $9.16

2 units bet to net 1.5 units in profit (~$1.755)

Adding:
0.31 Unit on Benfica 1-0/HT @ $3.10
0.19 unit on Benfica 2-0/HT @ $5.00

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Good luck to all
Oz

 

[OzCap]

TNS got goal crazy (6-0) and messed with the synthetic ML, but the secondary bet came in along with the others with Real winning 4-1 and Benfica winning 2-0HT and 3-0 final.

On the day, 4-1 and +1.59 units
Overall 23-4-1 and +9.74 units (36.25 Units/ 26.9% ROI)

Oz

 

[OzCap]

One from the Cypriate League today... A decent team in Omonia Nicosia taking on a struggling team Doxa. Omonia has beaten all the lower sides, and has held up OK against the upper tier teams, importantly, they have kept a lot of clean sheets against all levels (5 in the last 10), but don't score a lot of goals. Doxa on the other hand has really struggled to score goals (0 goals in 6 of their last 10) and are having a tough start to the season. Omonia has homefield advantage is overall the better team. Expecting a home win here, but not many goals, perhaps even a clean sheet. Looking to improve an OK ML ($1.42) by using correct scores, the matchbet with OVER 1.5 goals is probably too risky with this matchup and anything beyond a -0.5 handicap would also make me nervous.

0.222 Units on 1-0 @ $7.08
0.237 Units on 2-0 @ $6.64
0.164 Units on 2-1 @ $9.59
0.170 Units on 3-0 @ $9.26
0.117 Units on 3-1 @ $13.42
0.091 Units on 4-0 @ $17.21

Netting out 0.57 units profit for 1 unit gambled. Tempted to leave off 4-0 (this would bump the odds to around $1.75 instead of $1.57), but Omonia has scored that 4-0 a couple of times this season, so I am leaving it in there.

Really like the clean sheet for Omonia in this game, but that is already in my soccer picks thread and not double-dipping on it this time.

Good luck
Oz

 

[OzCap]

Another 6 goal fest (from two teams that usually allow no more than 3 in a game...)...0-1 and -1 unit on the day.

Overall 23-5-1 and +8.74 units (37.25 Units/ 23.5% ROI)

Oz

 

[OzCap]

A great set-up for a synthetic ML in Israel (will be an early/overnight game for most of us...). Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Hap Tel Aviv. Expect Maccabo TA to cruise through this one, neither team is a great scoring team and so not expecting 6 goals (again!) in this match, going to use the correct score to improve the $1.61 odds to $1.87...

0.410 Units on 1-0 @ $9.13
0.432 Units on 2-0 @ $8.65
0.403 Units on 2-1 @ $9.28
0.306 Units on 3-0 @ $12.21
0.286 Units on 3-1 @ $13.1
0.163 Units on 4-0 @ $22.98

Betting 2 units to return 1.74 units in profit.

Good luck!
Oz

 

[OzCap]

A 2-0 victory puts a nice win on the table to bounce back from yesterday. 1-0 and +1.74 units.

Overall 24-5-1 and +10.48 units (39.25 Units/ 26.7% ROI)

Oz

 

[OzCap]

Looks like Zwolle vs Dordrecht in the Dutch Eredivisie sets up a good potential synthetic ML. Dordrecht have been downright awful all season and Zwolle have been a solid upper-mid-table team who can definitely score and also hold home field advantage here. While Zwolle should stroll through this match, I would be surprised to see a whole host of goals here, expecting a 3-0 ish scoreline. Looking at clean sheets, AH and correct scores for value to improve the current $1.36 ML odds.

Primary:

0.326 Units on 1-0 @ $9.39
0.395 Units on 2-0 @ $7.76
0.330 Units on 2-1 @ $9.29
0.321 Units on 3-0 @ $9.55
0.268 Units on 3-1 @ $11.44
0.196 Units on 4-0 @ $15.63
0.164 Units on 4-1 @ $18.74

Effectively risking 2 units for 1.06 units in profit (~$1.53 odds vs $1.36).

Good luck
Oz

 

[OzCap]

Zwolle finish this is up nicely with a 4-0 victory, leaving us 1-0 and +1.06 units on the day.

Overall 25-5-1 and +11.54 units (41.25 Units/ 28.0% ROI)

Oz

 

[OzCap]

Looking to the Belgian Pro League tomorrow for a ML that looks good but needs a little improvement. Standard Liege takes on Mous Peruwelz and should look to solidify its championship playoff and potential place in Europe next season, although Peruwelz is probably going to do its best in order to avoid relegation after a really disappointing 0-6 run against mediocre teams. Both teams have the ability to score and neither defense is rock-solid so I do expect there to be goals in this game, most likely from both teams (although Peruwelz has only scored twice in the last 6 games, but they have scored a pretty decent clip the rest of the season).

Given the even AHs that exist on this game (-1 and -2), I am going to skip those for value as I really hate pushing, even partial pushes, as a primary bet, so I am going to go with a slightly larger correct score basket (yes, boring I know...)...

0.176 Units on 1-0 @ $8.54
0.205 Units on 2-0 @ $7.34
0.163 Units on 2-1 @ $9.21
0.160 Units on 3-0 @ $9.39
0.127 Units on 3-1 @ $11.79
0.094 Units on 4-0 @ $15.98
0.075 Units on 4-1 @ $20.09

Effectively betting 1 unit to profit 0.5 units, about 50% better than the $1.32 on the straight win.

As a secondary bet, I am putting 0.25 units on both teams scoring @ $1.93 as a slight hedge against a runaway game, or possible X2 result which I believe would be a dual score if it should happen.

If all comes through that will be 1.25 units at risk to win 0.72 units (~$1.58 overall).

Good luck
Oz

 

[OzCap]

Standard Liege came through 3-0, but the secondary bet didn't, leaving us 1-1 and +0.25 units.

Overall 26-6-1 and +12.04 units (42.5 Units/ 28.3% ROI)

Best
Oz