Synthetic MLs

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Two great candidates for Synthetic MLs on 4/8 with both Celtic and Barca coming back into focus (hopefully Barca doesn't give it to us again... ;o) ).

Celtic is making good progress toward their Scottish league title and look to keep it going against a fairly mediocre Partick side. Celtic have been very stingy with and goals I expect a clean sheet here, but will mix up the bets a little in order to try and capitalize on the rock-solid defense they have (14 goals in 29 league games!!).

Primary:
1.30 units on AH(-1.5) @ $1.57
0.20 units on Correct Score (2-1) @ $10.00

Effectively risking 1.5 units to win 0.54 units (~$1.36 vs current ML of $1.16, effectively a 125% improvement on return).

Secondary:
1 units on Celtic "win-to-zero" @ $1.83 (you can build this with a 1-0, 2-0, 3-0, 4-0 correct score set)

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Barcelona should continue is challenge for La Liga as Real is not letting up behind them. Two teams that are in completely different classes of football (soccer) and would expect Barca to win by a good margin in this game (as reflected by the ML of $1.05). Since 6+ goals games are rare (even in one-sided games like this...yeah yeah, Real Madrid last weekend etc...) I am going to keep this at 5-0 and below, additionally, if this stays with Barca only scoring one goal I will be very surprised. However, since the AH is 3 goals, combining it with correct scores becomes very tricky, so I am going with a correct score basket:

0.299 Units on 2-0 @ $9.50
0.149 Units on 2-1 @ $19.00
0.405 Units on 3-0 @ $7.00
0.189 Units on 3-1 @ $15.00
0.405 Units on 4-0 @ $7.00
0.218 Units on 4-1 @ $13.00
0.334 Units on 5-0 @ $8.50

Effectively risking 2 units to win 0.84 units (~$1.42 vs ML of $1.05...a 750% improvement...with the only real additional risk being a Barca runaway, 6+ goals)

Secondary bet:
1 units on Barca "win-to-zero" @ $1.57 (again build this with 2-0 to 5-0 correct scores you should get this or better).

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So a lot of units on the line in these two matches, but such huge mismatches and some good opportunities to improve returns that I am going to push the boat out a little in order to take advantage.

Good luck
Oz
 

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Adding one more play for the day, staying in Spain with Real Madrid. The Barca/Real tussle at the top of La Liga is going to have these teams continuing to play their best football as they look to secure any advantage they can, especially as they play weaker La Liga teams. Real should be able to beat a decent Rayo Vallecano side that has very little to play for and will finish the season in mid-table obscurity. These are usually pretty high scoring affairs and so I am going to use Asian Handicaps to help protect some crazy scorelines...

1.308 Units on AH (-1.5) @ $1.617
0.192 Units on 2-1 @ $11.00

Effectively risking 1.5 units to win 0.61 units (~$1.41 vs ML of $1.25, a 65% improvement).

Good luck!
Oz
 

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All three MLs came through (Celtic 2-0; Barca 4-0; Real 2-0) allowing us to go 5-0 and +3.39 units on the day.


Updated record, overall 68-25-1 and +19.71 units (124.5 Units wagered; 15.8% ROI)

Best
Oz
 

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One play for Monday that fits the bill...Valencia to win over Levante. Won't go into great detail here, but even though Levante has been a little bit of a bogey team for Valencia this season with two losses, it is worth noting that both of those were relatively early in the season and were both on the road. Expecting Valencia to come through here, with a guaranteed Champions League berth on the line for them too. Valencia is easily the better team Using a small correct score basket:

0.493 Units on 1-0 @ $7.00
0.500 Units on 2-0 @ $6.90
0.384 Units on 2-1 @ $9.00
0.367 Units on 3-0 @ $9.40
0.256 Units on 3-1 @ $13.50

Overall risking 2 units to win 1.45 units (~$1.73 vs current ML of $1.41, representing a 75+% improvement)

Good luck!
Oz
 

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Valencia come through 3-0, leaving us 1-0 and +1.45 units on the day.

Updated record, overall 69-25-1 and +21.16 units (126.5 Units wagered; 16.7% ROI)

Best
Oz
 

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Thanks Mike.

Putting in a couple of plays for today...

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Celtic vs Kilmarnock
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Going back to the well again with Celtic, who have been very consistent and looking like bona fide title winners in Scotland. Expecting them to come through comfortably against Kilmarnock. Celtic did burn me once with a 1-0 win when I expected more so that has me taking the slightly conservative route below, but if you were to remove the 1-0 score line you could get your return up an additional 0.35 units, your call ;)

Primary bet:


0.225 Units on 1-0 @ $12.00
0.386 Units on 2-0 @ $7.00
0.208 Units on 2-1 @ $13.00
0.416 Units on 3-0 @ $6.50
0.225 Units on 3-1 @ $12.00
0.360 Units on 4-0 @ $7.50
0.180 Units on 4-1 @ $15.00


Effectively wagering 2 units to win 0.70 units (~$1.35 vs currrent ML of approx $1.15 - 133% improvement)

Secondary:
Add 0.5 units on Celtic "Win to zero" @ $1.73 (remember you can build this with a correct score basket of 1-0 to 5-0 if you don't have access directly to that wager type)


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Lyon vs Bastia
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Not expecting a goal fest here, but Lyon should prevail without too much trouble. Going with a small correct score basket in order to take the money here...


0.255 Units on 1-0 @ $6.00
0.255 Units on 2-0 @ $6.00
0.180 Units on 2-1 @ $8.50
0.191 Units on 3-0 @ $8.00
0.118 Units on 3-1 @ $13.00


1 unit to win 0.53 units (vs ML of $1.35, a 50% improvement in return)

Good luck!
Oz
 

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Celtic win 4-1 (winning, but not winning 'to-zero') and Lyon 2-0 so a 2-1 day for us and +0.73 units on the day.

Updated record, overall 71-26-1 and +21.89 units (130 Units wagered; 16.8% ROI)

Oz
 

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Hoping to continue this winning run with a game in Denmark. Looking at Midtjylland to cruise past last place Silkeborg. Total mismatch in team quality and Midjylland has the homefield advantage and a pretty solid defence on the whole. Expecting a good number of goals from my analysis and there is definitely a chance of run away scoreline in the game. Looking to Asian Handicaps to help me out:

0.829 Units on AH (-1.5) @ $1.85
0.171 Units on 2-1 @ $9.00



Effectively risking 1 units to win 0.53 units (~$1.53 vs current ML of $1.30, so a roughly 75+% improvement in return).

Good luck!
Oz
 

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Well, got the result right, but bitten by the 1-0, so 0-1 and -1 unit on the day.

YTD: 71-27-1 and +20.89 units (131 Units wagered; 15.9% ROI

Oz
 

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Couple of games for Saturday:

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Barca/Valencia
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Looking to see Barca keep up their ridiculous form...


0.140 Units on 1-0 @ $10.00
0.186 Units on 2-0 @ $7.50
0.140 Units on 2-1 @ $10.00
0.186 Units on 3-0 @ $7.50
0.127 Units on 3-1 @ $11.00
0.127 Units on 4-0 @ $11.00
0.093 Units on 4-1 @ $15.00

Overall risking 1 unit to win 0.40 units ($1.40 vs ML of $1.25)


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Porto/Academica
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Expecting a lot of goals here, again going with an Asian Handicap method...

1.835 Units on AH (-1.5) @ $1.35
0.165 Units on 2-1 @ $15.00

Risking 2 units for a 0.48 units return ($1.24 vs a ML of $1.10)

May add one more later, need more analysis (and a little sleep ;) )

Good luck!
Oz
 

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OK...adding Real (to beat Malaga) to the mix, didn't want to miss this one in case I slept in lol....

Expecting a lot of goal from Real, so using the Asian Handicap method:

2.644 Units on AH (-1.5) @ $1.48
0.356 Units on 2-1 @ $11.00

Effectively risking 3 units to win 0.91 ($1.30 vs a ML of around $1.17, with the only additional risk being the 1-0 scoreline).

Good luck!
Oz
 

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Well, couldn't quite get the sweep today as Porto could only get one goal after scoring a bunch against a tough Bayern side during the week...grrr....

One the day: 2-1 and -0.69 units
YTD: 73-28-1 and +20.20 units (137 Units wagered; 14.7% ROI)

Oz
 

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Two plays for Sunday that I really like...

Ajax should cruise past NAC Breda, difficult one to judge the best strategy so I am going with the correct score basket which is a little more conservative....

0.311 Units on 1-0 @ $9.00
0.373 Units on 2-0 @ $7.50
0.311 Units on 2-1 @ $9.00
0.329 Units on 3-0 @ $8.50
0.255 Units on 3-1 @ $11.00
0.233 Units on 4-0 @ $12.00
0.187 Units on 4-1 @ $15.00

Effectively risking 2 units to win 0.80 units ($1.40 vs current ML of $1.30)


In the second game I see Roma slipping past Atalanta in order to keep securing the third Champs league qualifier in Serie A. Again, going with the correct score basket:

0.506 Units on 1-0 @ $6.50
0.506 Units on 2-0 @ $6.50
0.387 Units on 2-1 @ $8.50
0.347 Units on 3-0 @ $9.50
0.253 Units on 3-1 @ $13.00

Effectively risking 2 units to win 1.30 units (~$1.65 vs ML of $1.42)

Good luck!
Oz
 

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