Craig Davis
Super Bowl Lineup
75 Dime ---- CARDINALS
ARIZONA CARDNALS --- (if line is +6 ½, buy the half point to +7. If you line is +7, buy the half point up to +7 1/2 )
Okay boys and girls, it’s time to let the bankroll we’ve built up over the last 28 days start to work for us. Our NFL playoff run has been pretty remarkable and it’s time to cap it off with this HUGE Super Bowl winner on the Arizona Cardinals. Unfortunately for me, they’re probably mad at me for NOT backing them two weeks ago vs. Philly despite the fact I backed them in the previous two games (both easy winners). Let me make one thing perfectly clear --- this is gambling and NOTHING is ever 100% certain in gambling other than the fact there will be winners and losers and the losers will pay juice. Other than that, we’re dealing with the unknown until the game scoreboard hits all zeroes. That’s why we have to manage our money wisely. Yes, this is a HUGE play for me in the NFL, no doubt. But please understand me when I tell you I’m not asking you to take all your winnings from the last month with me and put it ALL on this game. That’s silly. Use our money management (dime) system to make sure we are playing smart. We’ll play a few bonus PROP plays a little later if you want to have a little fun with the game.
Now, why do I like the Cardinals against this Steelers vaunted defense? Well, it’s quite simply really. I’ve seen them do it too many times this season against other solid defenses and I just don’t believe they can be stopped. Sure, you can slow them at times if you can get pressure on Kurt Warner… but what about the times you don’t get pressure? What happens is you actually give Warner time to look downfield and throw the football? I believe, with complete certainty, this is the best receiving trio of WRs we’ve seen assembled together on one team, EVER!! I fully realize this Steelers’ secondary has been as hard hitting and ball-hawking as any defense we’ve seen this season, but they take chances. In my opinion, they take too many chances. And as often as it can turn into an turnover, it can turn into a big play for the offense and there’s no better “big play” offense in the NFL than the Arizona Cardinals, period.
And one of the reasons I believe the passing will have success early is because the running game be able to set the early tempo. Edgerrin James might be “over the hill”, but the guy can still run and you know he’s healthy (and fresh) after having sat out much of the second half of the season. Raise your hands if you’re sick and tired of hearing the media tell us how fresh Willie Parker is? James is just as fresh and get to run behind, in my opinion, a bigger, better offensive line. Once James gets going, it will open up a plethora of options for OC Todd Haley. And speaking of Haley, is there a better offensive play-caller in the NFL right now? This guy has it figured out and just knows the right time to dial up a quick slant to beat opposing blitzes… just ask the Eagles. Philly was the third ranked defense in the league and was on a string of seven straight games of allowing 14 points or less until it visited Arizona two weekends ago. The Cardinals screwed that up royally, much the way they plan to shred the Steelers secondary in Tampa tonight.
On the other side of the ball, don’t expect the Cardinals to roll over and die because the Steelers are going to “out-physical” them in the trenches. Darnell Dockett, Bert Berry and the front four in Arizona have been anything but a pushover for their last three opponents, racking up several sacks and shutting down the running game of Michael Turner, DeAngelo Williams (although that was more self-imposed) and Brian Westbrook last week. Like I said, I’m sick of hearing how fresh Willie Parker is and there’s no way for me to think he’s going to be the difference in this game --- he’s not. In order for Pittsburgh to succeed, they MUST rely on the arm of Ben Roethlisberger to find the injured Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes, Nate Washington and TE Heath Miller over the middle and downfield. Arizona’s defense is much like Pittsburgh’s, as they take chances and love to blitz from all angles and areas of the field. They led the NFC in takeaways and we all know how much Big Ben loves to give the ball away. He’s been sacked for an average of 19 YPG this season and last year when these two hooked up Arizona sacked Roethlisberger four times for -39 yards. Pittsburgh will definitely be able to throw the ball with some success, but so did Tom Brady and the Patriots last year and we all saw the results of that game.
And for those who have been telling me that the Steelers defense will be the best Arizona has seen all season and how they will be able to shut down Edgerrin James while easily sacking Kurt Warner might want to think again. Warner has been sacked for just -12 YPG this season and was sacked only twice last week by the blitz-happy Eagles. If it were up to Mike Tomlin, I’m not sure the Steelers would be a 3-4 defense, but Tomlin has left that to Dick LeBeau and his defensive staff to figure out. So far so good. Tomlin is a disciple of Monte Kiffin and his Tampa 2 style of defense and might get into somewhat of an internal struggle if the Cardinals find success through the air early.
And speaking of coaches, the Cardinals staff is full of guys who have coached with the Steelers at some point so you can expect them to have the upper hand, at least early on, when it comes to being one step ahead of your opponent. Remember Tampa vs. Oakland a few years back? Jon Gruden knew everything about the Raiders from the previous years and used that to his advantage in the Super Bowl. This is TOO BIG of a fact to overlook because Whisenhunt and his staff know the ins-and-outs of the entire Steelers’ organization.
They’re 6-2 SU and ATS in their last eight vs. the AFC for a reason and you can bet they’ll use any information they have to their advantage in this one. They’re good folks… they’re really good and they could easily get the SU win in Super Bowl XLIII. Pittsburgh’s defense has allowed 24 or more points in two of their last four games (31 to Tennessee and 24 to San Diego) and I’m telling you Arizona’s offense is better than what this defense has seen all season. Take the points and enjoy your Super Bowl winner.
PROP PLAYS FOR FUN ---
Both Teams to Make A FG of 33 YDS. Or Longer ---- YES
Team with Most Time of Possession --- ARIZONA
Kurt Warner Total Pass Attempts --- UNDER 40.5
Will Tim Hightower Score --- YES
31-21 +200dimes
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