Super Bowl Sunday Service Plays 02/01/09

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Golden Contender

Sunday ACC totals play

<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->On Sunday afternoon the ACC totals play is on the under in the Duke-virginia game.Rotation numbers 867/68 at 2pm eastern.Duke is coming off the tough loss vs Wake earlier in the week.I expect theyll come out and play good defense today.With that premise in mind the numbers here actually support the under Duke is 6-21 under vs losing teams,including 2-13 after game 15,8-21 under as a home fav in this range,including 1-8 there last 9, and 0-6 under vs the conference this year.Virginia is 4-15 under when taking on teams who average more than 76 points per game.The last 3 in the series have all went under,and ill go with Duke and Virginia to play under here for beer and pizza money; current line for the Duke game is 145 at pinnacle and the under is the play bol GC-
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

THE SPORTS ADVISORS

Pittsburgh (14-4, 11-7 ATS) vs. Arizona (12-7 SU and ATS)

The NFC champion Cardinals hope to successfully finish off a stunning run to their first Super Bowl when they meet the AFC champion Steelers, who are going after a record sixth Lombardi Trophy.

Arizona blew all of a 24-6 halftime lead in the NFC Championship Game two weeks ago against Philadelphia, then chewed up nearly half the fourth quarter en route to the winning touchdown in a 32-25 victory as a 3½-point home pup. The Cards posted their fourth straight win and cover – and second in a row from the underdog role – behind a stellar game from QB Kurt Warner (21 of 28, 279 yards, 4 TDs), who had no turnovers. WR Larry Fitzgerald (9 catches, 152 yards, 3 TDs) was once again dominant, and RB Edgerrin James (16 carries, 73 yards) helped loosen things up for the passing game.

In the victory over Philadelphia The Cardinals got outgained 454-369, allowing Eagles QB Donovan McNabb to have a huge second half and finish with 375 yards passing and three TDs. But Arizona won the turnover battle 3-1 and is now an eye-popping plus-9 in turnover differential through three playoff games, including seven INTs, after finishing with an even turnover ratio in the regular season.

Pittsburgh dropped Baltimore 23-14 as a six-point home chalk in the AFC Championship Game, yielding only a touchdown in the second and fourth quarters to its division rival in posting a third consecutive SU and ATS win. The Steelers defense allowed a stifling 198 total yards and forced Ravens rookie QB Joe Flacco (13 of 30, 141 yards, 0 TDs) into three INTs, leading to a 4-1 turnover edge, including safety Troy Palomalu’s game- and spread-clinching interception return for a touchdown late in the fourth quarter. Pittsburgh has a plus-5 turnover differential in its two playoff games, after going just plus-4 for the entire regular season.

Offensively, QB Ben Roethlisberger (16 of 33, 255 yards, 1 TD) wasn’t brilliant, but he had no INTs or lost fumbles, despite getting sacked four times. The Steelers couldn’t add much with their ground game, though, finishing with just 275 total yards in a battle of the league’s top two defenses.

These teams have met just twice this decade, with both going 1-1 SU and ATS. Last season, Arizona – led by then-first-year head coach and former Steelers offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt – posted a 21-14 home victory as a 5½-point underdog. In that game, Warner came off the bench to replace a hurt Matt Leinart and went 14-for-21 for 132 yards and one TD, while Fitzgerald grabbed 11 balls for 123 yards. Roethlisberger finished just 17-for-32 for 244 yards with two TDs offset by two INTs. Arizona finished with a 301-282 edge in total yards.

Pittsburgh’s top WR Hines Ward, who sat out last year’s game at Arizona with an injury, sprained his knee in the AFC Championship game against Baltimore, but he practiced fully on Friday and is expected to play today. Roethlisberger is also listed as probable despite bruised ribs. The Cardinals enter this contest with no significant injuries.

While this is Arizona’s first Super Bowl appearance, Pittsburgh is making its seventh trip to the big game. The Steelers are 5-1 SU and ATS in the previous six, including a 21-10 victory over Seattle as a four-point favorite in Super Bowl XL in Detroit three years ago.

Among the 12 playoff participants, Pittsburgh is sixth offensively at 308.5 ypg, but the Steelers are second in scoring at 29 ppg. In the regular season, the Steelers were in the back half of the league in every major offensive statistic, with per-game averages of 21.7 points (20th), 311.9 total yards (22nd), 105.6 rushing yards (23rd) and 206.3 passing yards (17th).

Roethlisberger was the NFL’s 24th-rated QB, competing 59.9 percent of his passes for 3,301 yards, offsetting 17 TD throws with 15 INTs, but he has no INTs and two TD throws in the playoffs. RB Willie Parker, limited to 11 games because of injury, rushed for 791 yards (3.8 ypc) and five TDs, and WR Hines Ward (81 catches, 1,043 yards, 7 TDs) tied for 14th in receptions and was 15th in receiving yards.

The Steelers have allowed 244 yards (2nd) and 19 points per game (tied for 3rd) in the playoffs, following up on their sterling regular season, in which they sported the league’s No. 1-ranked defense in points allowed (a meager 13.9 per game), total yards (237.2 per game) and passing yards (156.9), along with the second-best run-stopping squad (80.2 ypg).

Arizona has fielded the top-scoring unit in the playoffs, at 31.7 ppg and is the first team in NFL history with three straight 30-plus point playoff games, and the Cardinals are third in total offense, averaging 362.0 ypg. That certainly matches up with the team’s regular season stats, as Arizona ranked in the top five in the NFL in scoring offense (26.7 ppg, 3rd), total offense (365.8 ypg, 4th) and passing offense (292.1 ypg, 2nd). Warner completed 67.1 percent of his passes for 4,583 yards (second) and 30 TDs (third), against 14 INTs. Fitzgerald led the NFC in catches (96, 4th overall) and yards (1,431, 2nd overall), and he tied Detroit’s Calvin Johnson for the league lead in receiving touchdowns with 12.

Fitzgerald has been a monster in the playoffs, with 23 catches for a postseason record 419 yards, along with five TD receptions, three of which came in the first half against the Eagles.

Defensively, Arizona is sixth in the playoffs in yards allowed (324.3 per game) and eighth in points allowed (20.7). In the regular season, the Cards ranked a lowly 28th in points allowed (26.6 ppg) and 19th in yards allowed (331.5 total ypg).

The Cardinals made six trips to the Eastern Time Zone this season, going 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS, but the lone SU win was huge: a 33-13 bashing of second-seeded Carolina as a healthy 10-point underdog in the divisional round of the postseason. Along with their current 4-0 SU and ATS surge, the Cards are on ATS rolls of 4-0 on grass, 4-1 catching 3½-10 points, 4-1 in the playoffs and 12-5 against winning teams. On the down side, prior to its playoff run, Arizona had gone 2-6 SU and 3-5 ATS against winning teams this season.

The Steelers are on a 7-1 SU and ATS spree dating to the regular season, winning by an average score of 25-14. Pittsburgh is on a bundle of additional spread-covering streaks, including 7-0 in the playoffs, 4-0 laying points in the postseason, 6-1 against winning teams, 6-1 on grass, 6-1 after a SU win, 5-1 after a spread-cover and 24-11-1 as a chalk of 3½-10 points. The Steelers are also on a 5-1 SU and ATS uptick against winning teams, following an 0-5 ATS plunge earlier this season against teams with a winning record.

Since 1994, seven teams have won a Super Bowl and returned to the championship game within three years; Pittsburgh now makes it eight, having won the big game following the 2005 season. However, the previous seven teams went just 1-6 ATS on their return trip, including heavily New England losing outright to the Giants as a 12-point chalk last year.

The favorites and underdogs are an even 5-5 ATS so far in this season’s playoffs, with the SU winner going a perfect 10-0 ATS. However, the Giants’ upset of the Patriots last year gave the underdogs a 5-2 ATS mark in the last seven Super Bowls.

The over for Pittsburgh is on tears of 12-2 in the playoffs, 7-1 with the Steelers a postseason chalk, 11-5 overall with the Steelers laying points and 6-2 after a SU win. Likewise, the over for Arizona is on a boatload of runs, including 35-16 overall (7-2 in their last nine games), 20-6 after an ATS win, 22-8 after a SU win, 38-13 with the Cardinals catching points and 19-7 against winning teams. However, the total has stayed low in the past four Super Bowls, the longest stretch of “unders” in Super Bowl history since seven consecutive “unders” from 1969-75.

ATS ADVANTAGE: PITTSBURGH and OVER
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

GREG SHAKER

Arizona Cardinals at Pittsburgh Steelers
Play: Steelers -6.5

There are a couple of things about this play that I do not like and that is why I have waited so long pouring over it. The line movement is both good for us and bewildering but overall I am happy about getting the number that we have. In most recent Super Bowls, the Dog has been a team that was able to compete due to their defense, but that is not what we have for this contest in Tampa. Sure, the Cardinals have picked up their D efforts in the playoffs, but they are still the same team they have been and their pass coverage is still very marginal. They will also have to contend with a very good Steeler Run D, and it is one that has had 2 weeks to get well and get rested. In every phase of the game, Pittsburgh is the better squad. However, the better squad does not always win the game, and cover the spread. I have to believe that Pittsburgh will here. Don't be surprised in Hines Ward is named the MVP after this one is in the books. He is a Big Game Player and he is going to be getting open often, mostly on short routes. That is why I am playing Ben Roethlisberger Over 17.5 completions as one of my props. While Edrin James has lit up in the past few games, he is going to have some some difficulty rambling through this Steeler defensive front and LB's. That is also why I am playing him Under 42.5 yards. The 2 week layoff gives additional advantages as the AZ offense, which has been in gear, will have to get back into the scheme of things playing a pretty darn good D. I absolutely despise laying these points or any points in a game of this magnitude but we are doing the right thing here. We have to remember, the Cardinal is a beautiful bird, but perhaps not after crashing into a Steel Curtain. Ball control, Good D, Pressure on the AZ QB, and a strong desire for Pitt, should give us what we want, a 13 to 17 point Steeler victory.
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mike Neri

WILL THERE BE A SCORE IN THE 1ST 7½ MIN OF GAME?
YES SCORE 1ST 7½ MIN (PIT/ARI) -185

WILL THERE BE A SCR IN THE LAST 2MINS OF 1ST HLF?
YES SCR LAST 2MIN 1H (PIT/ARI) -250

TOTAL QUARTERBACK SACKS IN THE GAME
TOTAL QB SACKS (PIT/ARI) OVER 5-130


TOTAL FIELD GOALS MADE IN THE GAME
TOTAL FIELD GOALS (PIT/ARI) OVER 3-150

TOTAL COMPLETIONS MADE BY STEELERS QBS
STEELERS QBS COMPLETIONS OVER 18½ EVEN

TOTAL PASSING YARDS BY BEN ROETHLISBERGER
BEN ROETHLISBERGER PASSING YDS OVER 215½ -175


TOTAL PASSING YARDS BY KURT WARNER
KURT WARNER PASSING YARDS OVER 225½ -210
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

DOC

4 Unit Play. #101 Take Pittsburgh over Arizona (Sunday 6:20 pm NBC) Pitt 27, Arizona 13.
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Wayne Root

Chairman Arizona

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Fat Jack


Final score prediction:
PITTSBURGH 31
ARIZONA 23

SELECTIONS:

PITTSBURGH -7
THE PITTSBURGH GAME TO GO OVER THE TOTAL OF 46 1/2

PREDICTED FINAL SCORE IN THE FIRST HALF:

PITTSBURGH 13
ARIZONA 10

FIRST HALF SELECTIONS:
ARIZONA +4 ( FOR HALF OF YOUR AVERAGE BET)
THE FIRST HALF OF THE GAME TO GO UNDER 23 1/2 POINTS ( FOR HALF OF YOUR AVERAGE BET)

PROP BETS
HERE ARE MY TOP 10 PREDICTED PROP BETS. IF YOU ARE GOING TO I WILL BE PLAYING 10% OF WHAT I AM BETTING ON THE GAME ON EACH OF THESE SELECTIONS . FOR EXAMPLE, I WILL PLAY 5K ON THE GAME SELECTIONS. 2500.00 ON THE HALF SELECTIONS AND $500.00 EACH PROP BET. KEEP IN MIND, I AM BETTING LIKE A GUY THAT IS 1. UP A LOT OF MONEY ON THE SEASON AND 2. SOMEONE THAT WANTS TO GAMBLE DURING THE GAME. IF I WAS EITHER DOWN OR WANTED TO PLAY IT SAFER, I WOULD PROBABLY, PLAY 5% OF MY GAME WAGER AMOUNT ON EACH PROP BET. MOST IMPORTANTLY, DO WHAT FEELS CONFORTABLE TO YOU. IF YOU ARE A $100.00/GAME PLAYER, THE MOST I WOULD BET OF THE PROPS IS $10.00 EACH. HER YOU GO....

1. THE FIRST TEAM TO SCORE IN THE GAME WILL BE ARIZONA. +130

2. THE TEAM THAT SCORES FIRST WILL NOT WIN THE GAME. +160

3. THE TEAM THAT WILL HAVE THE MOST PENALTY YARDS IS ARIZONA. -120 (LOOK FOR AT LEAST 2 HOLDING PENALITIES AND 1 BIG PASS INTERFERENCE TO DECIDE THIS ONE)

4. THE TEAM TO USE THE FIRST CHALLENGE WILL BE PITTSBURGH. -115 ( PITTSBURGH'S COACH SEEMS TO WALK AROUND WITH THE CHALLENGE FLAG IN HIS HAND AND WONT BE AFRAID TO USE IT EARLY, PROBABLY ON A CLOSE FUMBLE)

5. THE STEELERS WILL NOT, THAT'S NOT GET A RUSHING TOUCHDOWN. -130 ( A LOT OF SUCKER MONEY WILL BET YES ON THIS ONE ESPECIALLY WITH THE GOOD ODDS BUT WE WILL BE CASHING. LOOK FOR PLAY ACTION TO BE THE CALL ON THE GOALINE.)

6. WHAT WILL HAPPEN FIRST, PITTSBURGH TOUCHDOWN OR PUNT. WE THINK PUNT COMES FIRST. -120 CONSERVITAVE PLAY CALLING ALONG WITH A FIRED UP DEFENSE ON BOTH SIDES LEADS TO A PUNT FIRST.

7. THE TOTAL TACKLES BY TROY POLAMULA WILL BE UNDER 4.5. -125 ( HE NORMALLY HAS A COUPLE OF BIG TACKLES /GAME BUT TEAMS TRY AND STAY AWAY FROM HIM. WARNER WONT GIVE HIM A LOT OF CHANCES FOR INTS OR TACKLES. )

8. THE DISTANCE OF KURT WARNERS FIRST TOUCHDOWN PASS WILL BE LESS THAN 9.5 YARDS. -115 ( GOAL LINE WILL BE PLAY ACTION OR FIELD GOALS FOR PHOENIX. )

9. WHICH WILL BE HIGHER? PITTSBURGH'S POINTS OR LEBRON JAMES POINTS VS. PISTONS? PITTSBURGH WILL HAVE MORE POINTS -115 (LEBRON HAS 21, PITTSBURGH HAS MORE)

10. WILL ONE OF MITCH BERGERS PUNTS RESULT IN A TOUCHBACK? YES, ONE WILL. +200 ( THIS IS A HARD ONE BUT WE GET GREAT ODDS AND IT ONLY TAKES ONE BOOMING PUNT OR ONE COFFIN CORNER PUNT THAT TURNS OVER AND WE DOUBLE OUR MONEY!!)
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

BEN BURNS

I'm playing on Pittsburgh and Arizona to finish UNDER the total.
*Playoff TOY
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

We Cover Spreads

We're heading into this Superbowl Sunday on a 10-2 NFL run! We've spent countless hours capping this game from every possible angle and we are as confident as last year as the veteran members will remember we said don't doubt it at all and take the Giants and the points. We're as confident as a few weeks ago when we told you take Florida to the bank over the Sooners.

It starts up front. O-Lines and the man behind center. Warner is playing as good or better than he has in his career. Stat-wise his season was incredible. The guys that protect him are playing extremely well heading into Sunday. Possibly the most underated O-Line in the league. Roethlisberger is coming off of 2 solid playoff games without turning the ball over and threw a pair of TD's. We have a gripe with his O-Line though. We have to give them a lot of credit in both playoff games they gave up 0 sacks. That's a big statement considering they played the Ravens. But this is a O-Line who has been prone to collapse in big games (5 sacks vs Tenn, 5 vs Dallas,5 vs Giants, 9 vs Eagles). The Cards have 7 sacks in the playoffs this year. This defense is playing as aggressive as they looked earlier in the season in their game vs Dallas. If they can get to Big Ben that can be a major factor in the outcome of this game. It's Jekyll and Hyde wondering which O-Line will show up.

A bigger picture here is Coach Whisenhunt. Here is the guy who molded Big Ben when he was O-Coordinator with the Steelers. He has the upper hand here guys. The teacher always has the edge over the student. Think he doesn't know what blitz schemes may rattle Ben? What coverages he may be the most vulnerable to make a mistake? With his experience working with him and 2 weeks to study film who gets the advantage? After all Ben did throw 15 Int's this season. He has gone two playoff games without a Int. but as a matter of fact Big Ben hasn't gone 3 straight games this season without throwing a pick. Ironically there are several coaches on the Zona staff who have history with Pittsburgh. That's a pretty big advantage for Arizona.

The Steelers defense is the best in the league and defense wins championships but this Cardinals team is firing on all cylinders! They are averaging 31.6ppg in the playoffs! 32 points alone vs. the Eagles #3 defense in the league. The Steelers will not be able to shut down Fitzgerald, Boldin, and Breaston! This is the best QB/WR's tandem they have faced since the Colts. A game they lost,a game where they could shut down Wayne but not Harrison(114 Yards TD) and Manning threw for 3 TD's. They may shut down 1 of the 3 listed above receivers for the Cards but that's it. Someone is going to have a huge break out game. The Eagles who have a great secondary and one of the best D-Coordinator's in the league couldn't stop Fitzgerald. We see this game playing out very simliar to the Colts/Steelers meeting this season.

Brian Westbrook a running back with similar style to Willie Parker was a non-factor as the Cards held him to just 45 yards on the ground and just 2 receptions. The Cards defense is outshined by their offense but they deserve a lot of more credit. They have shut down Westbrook, shut down a great Carolina tandem(Williams,Stewart) to 75 yards, and Michael Turner to just 42 yards!! Those are 4 great running backs we just listed and they only gave up 1 TD vs. all of them. They will shut down Willie Parker Sunday!

With Parker and the running game disabled the offense is relying on Ben and his receivers. We really feel Ben is going to have at least 1 Interception but a good chance for more than that. He is going to be pressured more than any of his last 2 games.Him ,Hines Ward, and Holmes will hook up for some big plays no question, but not enough to cover this spread and possibly not even win this game. This secondary has 8 interceptions in the playoffs vs the best rookie QB in the league Matt Ryan, Jake Delhomme, and McNabb. Not a shabby group..Ben is prone to some horrible performances this season and if he isn't getting the protection this can be another one if the Cards D comes out playing like they have this playoffs. This D is going to be revved up and completely ready for the Steelers offense. If they can shut down the run which we think they will and force the Steelers to be one-dimensional the chances of them winning this game outright are good.

Let's really think about it. Who did the Steelers beat to get here? They beat a Chargers team(that barely made the playoffs) without their star running back and Merriman their best defensive player. They also beat an overachieving Ravens team led by a rookie QB. There isn't a real solid quality of wins to get them here in our view. Cardinals won 3 games as dogs to get here when nobody thought they had a chance.

The Cards have as much of a shot to cover as they do to win this game. A 7 point dog playing as well as they are on a neutral field we'll take it. Whether you decide to make a small play on the moneyline is up to you. We definitely are. Last year it was perfect timing for the Giants. This year it really seems it is perfect time for Arizona. Take Arizona+7
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bettorsworld

3* Steelers -6.5 over Cardinals

We went in to Championship weekend with a shot at picking up a couple of units on the year for our key releases. Unfortunately, we dropped both title games, both of which we would play all over again presented with the exact same scenarios. In other words, we really liked both plays. So we end the year down a couple of units and we move on. Remember, this is a marathon, not a sprint.

For the Super Bowl, we're going to make a small play on the logical side. We're not going to get into a bunch of yards per points numbers and so on, to make our case here. We're simply gong to make it a short, common sense argument. You again have to remember the long term approach here. You're going to make a play on this game based on situations and analysis that have proven successful over the long run. As a result, you may win or loss this particular game, but over a career of betting sports, you're more likely to win more of these than you'll lose. Don't get caught up in the "right now" and certainly don't go crazy betting ten times your normal amount just because it's the Super Bowl. That's just plain moronic.

Having said that, it's hard not to back the better team here. It should be obvious to anyone who's watched a lick of football all year who the better team is from top to bottom here, and that's the Steelers. Sure, the Cards have made it this far and deserve all the credit in the world. Likewise, they could even win this game. Football games take on a life of their own after the opening kick off. A few breaks going their way, an early lead taking the Steelers off their game plan and a momentum run like we see over and over again in football games in general, and we could have an upset.

But we can't make a selection based on what if's. What if the Cards get an early lead. What if Big Ben has a terrible game. What if, what if, what if. Anything can happen but you have to base your selection on the facts. You have to take into account what both teams have done lately, as well as over the course of the entire season. If you do that, you can only arrive at one conclusion. The Steelers will be world champs.

Where would you like to start. Coaching? Ok, let's call it even. Though I think the edge goes to the Steelers here. Defense? Not even close. The Cards hardly have a playoff worthy defense, never mind championship. Offense? Ok, the Cards have been a fantastic offensive team all year long and you'd have to give them a slight nod offensively. But it's slight folks. The Steelers offense is very underrated due to the fact that the defense takes center stage. The Steelers have plenty of weapons offensively. Rothlisberger is perhaps one of the best QB's in the entire NFL when he gets out of the pocket. The guy can make things happen. Hines Ward, even at less than 100% commands attention. Heath Miller, Willie Parker. Etc. This is an offense that can be just as lethal as the Cards and more importantly, they are more complete. They have the better offensive line, the better backs, they can move the ball thru the air or on the ground and should have no trouble putting together long drives that keep Warner and company off the field.

Much has been made about the Cards offense and in particular, Larry Fitzgerald. Rightly so. The guy is amazing. He's a Plaxico Burress type receiver, in that, if you get the ball anywhere close to him, he'll make the play. He's the type of receiver that makes QB's look great. Much has also been made of Kurt Warners ability to pick up the blitz and capitalize. Again, rightly so. Teams blitz the Cards which sets up Fitzgerald in man to man coverage which in turn can be a disaster.

But things may be a little different against the Steelers. Enter Dick Lebeau, the Steelers defensive coordinator. The defense he created, back in the 80's, was a direct result of attempting to stop, or slow down, the emerging West Coast offenses, which spread the field out and get rid of the ball quickly. Rather than play man to man when they blitz, the Steelers "Zone Blitz". Meaning they play zone behind the blitz. In other words, this defense was set up to stop QB-Receiver tandems like Warner to Fitzgerald. The defensive scheme is also what makes a guy like Troy Polamalu great. He's all over the field. QB's can't keep track of him. They throw into what they think is man to man coverage and then bam, where did he come from as he picks off the pass and takes it in for 6.

The Cards are a great story and plenty capable of a shocker. But don't count on it. Talent generally wins out in this game, especially when the gap is as large as it is here. It's always tempting to take a live dog. Especially for this handicapper, who bets probably 90% underdogs in all sports. But there's only one way to look here.

Lastly, don't get caught up with the point spread. In the NFL in general, if you can pick the straight up winner of a game, you'll also cover 80% of the time or so. Of course, it's not always easy to just pick the straight up winner. But that figure is magnified in Super Bowls. In other words, if you managed to pick the straight up winner of every Super Bowl, you would have covered most of them. Don't have time to get the exact figure, but it's most Super Bowls. Just for the sake of this article, we went back 12 years and see that you'd be 10-2 against the spread in that time had you just picked the straight up winner. (a couple of pushes if you didn't get the right number). Point being, don't bet the Cards if you think they'll lose, but will "hang". Only bet the Cards if you're confident they will win outright.

Our play for Super Bowl XLIII is the Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5 over the Arizona Cardinals. We'll call it a 3* Key Release.

We also lean towards the Over 46.5 here as well. Again, the Steelers offense is underrated. They can put points on the board. The Cardinals are going to get their points, but the Steelers will make more plays......i.e. more points. A score of 35-21 or so wouldn't be a surprise.

Props? There's a Gazillion props. Just about impossible to analyze them all. There is one that stood out earlier in the week. Will their be a defensive or a Special teams TD scored. The price earlier this week was +170 and is now +145. But shop around. It seems likely that there will be.
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

John Fina Winning Way Sports

nfl Arizona, Over

cbb Iowa
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

indiancowboy


5 Unit Play. #102. Take Arizona Cardinals +7 over Pittsburgh Steelers (Sunday @ 6:20pm). I will gladly take the team that defeated my Falcons at home. Bear in mind that these two teams actually met a few years in ago in Arizona and the Cardinals handled this team fine 21-14 on September 30th, 2007. Why do I mention that game? Well, Kurt Warner picked up apart this Steelers defense fairly well and note, he only ended up playing roughly half the game in that contest and completed14 of 21 attempts, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions. Well, now Kurt will get to play the entire game. Big Ben did throw for 2 touchdowns in that game but also threw 2 interceptions. Bear in mind that this Cardinals team deserves to be here for the simple fact they beat the Falcons, Eagles and the best team in the NFC Panthers on the road - and frankly, hammered them on the road. Although Boldin has been grumbling, I'm sure those issues have been ironed out for the Big Game and frankly, it ends up being a great deception as the Cards are well focused for this game. Look, the Cardinals are made of many, many ex-steeler coaches and contact. From the Cardinals head coach who knows Big Ben inside out to the assistant coach who knows their offensive line very well, the Cardinals will be more than prepared for this game. Nothing against Mike Tomlin, but Ken Whisenhunt is the better coach. The Cardinals have nothing to lose, they will come in this game ready to wheel and deal - remember Kurt has won his Super Bowl already - and Whisenhurt is awesome and getting his players up and ready for the big game. After all, look at the last 3 contests for Cardinals. They were all games in which these had to fight adversity, and either come back or take on the underdog role. In short, the Cardinals could very well win this game outright. At worst, I expect this team to lose by a field goal to 5 points today but bear in mind the Cardinals have the offense and defensive pressure schemes to get it done today. I'll say it again, this game will come down to coaching and Whisenhunt is by far the better coach and I think that will end up being the difference today. Yes, the Steelers have the better defense, but if there is anyone that can pick apart that defense, it is Kurt Warner. He did it two years ago when he didn't have all the weapons he has today, he did it at Carolina and let's not forget this Cardinals offensive line has played together all season long. That's right, they have started together the entire season and this defensive line of the Cardinals is stout as well. I will take Arizona once again to win outright or just fall short in a competitive game. The Arizona Cardinals have nothing to lose. Heck, they have nothing to lose and should not even be here in some respects. This team will have a no holds bar approach and there is only one kryptonite to the Pittsburgh Steelers defense - someone who is as seasoned as it comes - Kurt Warner gets it done.

3 Unit Play. Take Over 46.5 between the Pittsburgh Steelers @ Arizona Cardinals (Sunday @ 6:20pm). I can see the arguments for both sides as it relates to how the side will play out. But, as per the total in this game, there is every reason to think that this has a great shot at going over. After all, considering the fact that the Steelers will take a page from the Eagles 2nd half book against the Cardinals, considering the Cardinals and their potent offense of their own spreading the field with Fitzgerald and Boldin, the over being 7-1 ATS when the Steelers are favored and the over being 38-13 for the Cardinals in their last 51 games as Underdogs, I epxect this game to go over. After all, there is plenty of blood between the coaching staffs of these two teams as many of the Steelers ex-coaches are now the lead at Arizona which makes for a great story line here - more importantly, it makes for an over.

1 Unit Prop Wager: Longest Field Goal of the Game Over 44.5 (-110): Can you imagine a drive stalling at the 30-35 yard line for either team? I sure can. I believe both these offenses will have success and consequently will drive the ball successfully down field. Of course, this does not mean they will get to the endzone each time as I believe the defenses will tighten up as the opposing offenses approach the endzone. I look for both teams to allow the other to get across midfield, but then tighten up and consequently results in several long field goal attempts. There is no reason why there should not be a successfull field goal made over 44.5 and who knows, maybe that field goal could very well be the game winner.

1 Unit Prop Wager: Field Goals Made: Over 3.5 (-110). If you read the analysis is above, you will understand the take I have on this game. Once again, I believe both teams will have success moving the ball on the opposing team and who is to say that one team alone might not chuck up four field goals? Look for both offensive coordinators to have success but then drives to stall as they opposing team gets further down field. I expect around 5 field goals, so this is a take considering it is just at 3.5. Heck, the first half alone could yield 3 field goals and the second half will yield at least one in my opinion.

1 Unit Prop Wager: Cardinals will Convert more than 4.5 - 3rd down Conversions (-110). The Arizona Cardinals would not have made it to the playoffs, would not have won their division, would not have beat the Falcons at home, would not have crushed the Panthers on the road and would not have beat the Eagles at home if they did not time and time again convert third downs. They are not going to Tampa like the Seattle Seahawks to get embarrassed by this team. The Cardinals will be fired up, ready to roll and there is no better kryptonite to the Steelers defense, than Kurt Warner. I look for the Cardinals to convert several third downs in one drive alone and to have a no holds bar approach and they could very well achieve this mark by mid 3rd quarter.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Todays Picks

Our Super Bowl Pick: UNDER 46.5 The betting public has fell in love with the play of Warner and Co. this season which alone has driven the point spread up 3.5 points. Not to mention, historically, bettors always bet the favorite and the over in the Super Bowl which also drove the real total up 2.5 points. So, with these two adjustments in mind, we are looking for this total to fall between 37-43 points.
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Las Vegas Sport Picks

NFL:

2* Steelers -6.5
2* Over 46

NBA:

1* Celtics -14
1* Magic/Raptors over 201

NCAA:

1* Michigan St. -13

NHL:

1* Oilers -160
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bryan Leonard

Plays are rated from 2-5*s for strength & bankroll %

2* Arizona & Pittsburgh

We talked about this with our Cardinals selection over the Eagles earlier in the playoffs and for those who didn't purchase the play we will reiterate. Arizona didn't play 16 games in the regular season like most other teams, they played just 13 meaningful games. You see they had the division sewn up early on and didn't need to exert the kind of effort that the Steelers had to use each week. The Cardinals had the ability to pick and choose which games they could concentrate their efforts on and it saved them come playoff time. Arizona was sitting at 7-3 and were hosting the Super Bowl favorite Giants in a Sunday night game in the desert. Despite giving it their all they fell to the defending champs 37-29. They then had to travel to Philadelphia to play a Thursday night game on short rest. Obviously the Cards cared little about this game and the Eagles blasted them 48-20. The Cards were able to get their revenge in the playoffs when both teams had something to play for. The following week Arizona beat St Louis 34-10 to clinch the division and their first playoff game is what seems like forever. As pointed out by Howie Long on the pregame show the following week the Cardinals partied like it was 1999. Long said he had never seen a team still celebrating the victory this far along in the week, and it showed as Minnesota crushed the Cards 35-14. The following week with again nothing to play for Arizona (a warm weather team) traveled to New England to face not only a Patriot team in a must win situation, but blizzard weather conditions with below zero temperatures. As expected the Cards mailed the game in as New England pounced 47-7. So keep in mind when you talk about the overall stats for Arizona that not all games are considered equal.

Pittsburgh is thought of as a terrific defensive team, but take a look at their schedule. Cleveland twice, Cincinnati twice, Baltimore twice, Jacksonville, Washington and Tennessee. While we know this Steeler defense is very good they have been playing either in terrible weather or against weak offensive opposition. So how has Pittsburgh done against playoff competition? Besides Baltimore who they beat three times, they lost to Philadelphia by 9 at home, lost to the Giants by 7 at home, lost to the Colts by 4 at home, beat San Diego by a single point at home before winning the playoff rematch, and lost at Tennessee by 17 on the road.

Arizona is every bit as good as the Steelers, especially getting a full touchdown. Grab up the last of the sevens and look for the Cardinals to take this one to the wire.

PLAY ARIZONA
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Randall the Handle

Arizona +6½ +1.00 over PITTSBURGH PINNACLE

The stronger the Cardinals look the less respect they’re getting and frankly, I don’t give a rats ass what the stats say, the Cardinals are going to be tough to beat here and 6½ or 7 is way too many. Yeah, the Cardinals limped into the playoffs but so what. Once they got there they’ve been a powerhouse and it’s not like they haven’t beat anyone. They opened with a solid win over Atlanta and hung a 30 on a tough defense. They followed that up by blowing away Carolina, in Carolina no less against another tough defense and a stifled an offense that was firing on all cylinders. Incidentally, they put up 33 points. Then they took on the surging Eagles and blew them away in the first half before they got a little complacent and saw its 24-6 halftime lead turn into a one-point deficit. In a crucial possession, down by a point and all the pressure in the world on them, the Cardinals put together one of the best drives in playoffs history; a 72-yard, eight minute beauty, capped off by a two-point conversion that left Philly with under three minutes to go. Oh, they hung a 32 on the Eagles against a defense that was playing at its peak. Now they’re getting seven points against an offense that is not even close to being as good as Atlanta, Carolina or Philadelphia. Sure, the Steelers defense is tough as shoe leather and it’s unlikely the Cards will put up 30 or more. However, to cover or win they won’t have to, as the Steelers offense leaves plenty to be desired. Ben Roethlisberger gets the job done but man, this guy takes a ton of chances in that he throws the ball up for grabs in the same fashion as Brett Favre. He’s been very lucky to have not been picked off more than he has and in this league you just can’t keep getting away with those erratic throws. My only concern in this one is the Cardinals kicking game, as punter Ben Graham shanks too many punts and if he’s kicking deep inside his own end it could give the Steelers some great field position. Having said that, I’m not going to let that deter me from taking back these points, as the Cards are playing great football and should they score first, which is a distinct possibility, the Steelers will be extremely hard-pressed to not only cover but to win outright. Finally, the last time the Steelers were in the Super Bowl in 2006, they beat the Seahawks and every reporter, fan and observer questioned the refereeing in that one. Some even went as far as saying the fix was in. The Steelers got every call and than some. They got calls that weren’t there and they had nothing called against them. You can’t take the human element out of anything and the refs are human and there’s no way they aren’t aware of the bias that was showed towards the Steelers. Some media was even calling for an inquiry into that game, that’s how biased the refereeing was. The point is, don’t expect the Steelers to get favorable calls in this one. Folks, I’m calling the upset but in now way am I passing up these generous points. Play: Arizona +6½ +1.00 (Risking 3 units).
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SUNSHINE FORECAST

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Pittsburgh Steelers 31 Arizona Cardinals 17
Pittsburgh Steelers (1 star)



Power Rating Projection:

Pittsburgh Steelers 26 Arizona Cardinals 18


Statistical Projections

Pittsburgh Steelers 25

Rushing Yards: 100
Passing Yards: 251
Turnovers: 2 Arizona Cardinals 16

Rushing Yards: 57
Passing Yards: 230
Turnovers: 2
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NORTHCOAST POWERSWEEP


2* OVER

GAME OVERVIEW - Coming into the season the Steelers had one of the toughest schedules based on the record of their 2007 foes (.598). The last team to play twelve .500+ teams went 4-12 & only 2 of 16
teams that played eleven .500+ teams had winning records. They are now playing in an NFL record 7th franchise SB & their 2nd in 5 years. Since moving to Arizona from St Louis in 1988 the Cardinals had just
one other winning season fi nishing 9-7 in 1998. ARZ came into 2008 widely viewed as the 2nd best team in the NFC West & quite a few eyebrows were raised when it was announced that Warner won the #1 QB
job over Matt Leinart. The Cardinals took advantage of a very weak division & capitalized on the slew of injuries to SEA. After not hosting an NFL playoff game since 1975 the Cardinals are off to their fi rst SB
in franchise history. ARZ has not won an NFL Championship since 1947 when the Chicago Cardinals beat the Philadelphia Eagles. The Cardinals have the worst regular season record for a Super Bowl team
since the 1980 LA Rams lost to the Steelers 31-19 in SB XIV. The big media story will be the fact that Ken Whisenhunt was the OC for the Steelers victory in Super Bowl XL. Whisenhunt & OL Coach Russ
Grimm both interviewed for the HC spot when Bill Cowher stepped down. Grimm was offered the job but the Rooney family retracted it & they opted for Mike Tomlin who had 1 year of experience as a DC for the Vikings. Whisenhunt has 8 former Steelers assistants on his staff & noted that "this is something of a dream scenario for me & many of the coaches on our staff." Kurt Warner will earn serious consideration for the Hall of Fame with a win here while Roethlisberger will cement his status as one of the top 3 QB's in the NFL (Tom Brady & Peyton Manning just ahead of him) despite having one more ring than Manning. Arizona has 5 Pro Bowlers vs Pittsburgh's 3. SB dogs are 3-4 SU & 5-2 ATS.


PLAYOFF EXPERIENCE - The Steelers program is very consistent with an established identity & a way of doing things which allows them to retain core players for a long time. Unlike Super Bowl XL the Steelers have a very clear cut edge here thanks to their program. PIT has 26 players on this team who were on the roster for Super Bowl XL with 3 currently on the IR. An astounding 10 of 11 starters on defense played in the game with 5 starters on offense that were starters in SB XL. QB Roethlisberger,
RB Parker, WR Ward, TE Miller were all starters for SB XL with Ward being named the MVP. ARZ does have a proven winner in Kurt Warner who is 1-1 SU & ATS in the Super Bowl. Pro Bowler Sean Morey was with the Steelers for SB XL & is a vital member of the Cardinals special teams unit. Edgerrin James has 8 games (3-5 SU & ATS) experience with the Colts prior to 2008 in the playoffs including Indy's 21-18 loss in the Conf Semi-fi nals in 2005 to PIT. While ARZ does have 12 coaches with playoff experience
the edge is very clear when it comes down to who is on the fi eld. LARGE EDGE: STEELERS




RECORD VS THE SPREAD - There is an adage in the NFL that it's not who you play it's when you play them & the Cardinals are a great example. At home the Cardinals went 8-2 SU & 7-3 ATS winning by a 30-23 margin. On the road they struggled with 6 trips to the East Coast & went 1-5 SU & 1-4-1 ATS losing by an avg score of 29-24. They have tallied 4 straight covers since a pair of embarrassing losses to MIN & NE. ARZ has taken advantage of a very weak NFC West (5-1 ATS) & has beaten an ATL team with a young QB, a CAR team that came in overconfi dent & a PHI team that couldn't overcome an 18 pt defi cit in the 1H. PIT took the challenge of a very tough schedule head on & survived going 7-3 SU (4-6 ATS) to start the season. They fi nished 7-1 SU & ATS with a 25-14 avg score the rest of the season. PIT went 6-2 SU & 5-3 ATS on the road TY with a 20-14 avg score. PIT's 2 losses were to PHI & TEN both solid playoff teams.
PIT has won 9 games by 7 or more points while only 2 of ARZ 7 losses were by 7 or less. ARZ went 2-6 SU & 2-5-1 ATS vs foes with a winning record losing by a 36-24 avg score prior to their 3-0 ATS run with a
32-21 winning margin. PIT went 2-3 SU & 0-5 ATS vs foes with a winning record before Thanksgiving with an 18-15 avg defi cit. PIT then went 5-1 SU & ATS the rest of the way with a 23-14 avg score. Both teams
are peaking at the right time & PIT's edge is mitigated some by the fact that teams are 1-6 ATS if they won a Super Bowl in the L3Y due to overconfi dence & an infl ated line. SLIGHT EDGE: STEELERS




TURF/SITE - This will be the 4th time Raymond James Stadium hosts a Super Bowl with the last one being SB XXXV in 2001. RJ Stadium seats 70,500 & was voted 2nd best playing surface for 2008 by
players. Both teams will be allotted 17.5% of the tickets. One third goes to season ticket holders in a lottery system, one third to suite owners & the rest to the players, coaches & staff. The team hosting
the event gets 5% of the tickets, 30% is shared by the other 30 NFL teams with the league retaining 30% for sponsors & special promotions. The avg ticket price for SB XLII was $4,332. The NFL spares
no expense to ensure a quality playing surface & they import a grass fi eld called Princess 77 for the game costing over $500,000 to install. Both teams are grass teams but Steeler fans travel like college
fans & there will be quite a few Terrible Towels in the stands. SLIGHT EDGE: STEELERS




STEELERS #22 OFFENSE VS CARDINALS #19 DEFENSE - Part of the Steelers legacy is that the offense has been centered around the power run game & the passing game is 2nd. Under Mike Tomlin
& OC Bruce Arians that doesn't apply as the Steelers are relying more on Roethlisberger's arm & his tenacity in keeping plays alive with his mobility & size. PIT is using more 3 WR sets letting RB Parker and
Moore take advantage of the spread out defense. Despite missing 5 games due to knee & shoulder injuries Parker has led the Steelers in rushing for 4 straight years. He has 418 yds (3.9) in 6 post season games.
#2 RB Mewelde Moore is a very capable 3rd Dn RB that can start for short periods & had 908 yds from scrimmage (5.0) during the reg ssn. He is also a key player on special teams. Both Parker & Moore are speed/slash RB's & the team brought in Gary Russell to be the short yardage RB. Both Moore & Russell have seen their time cut in the playoffs as Parker is fi nally healthy. Hines Ward led the team with 81 rec's (12.9) & he also leads the franchise with 78 post season catches. He is one of the most respected blocking WR's in the NFL & while he sprained his right knee vs BAL he is expected to play here. PIT does have depth here as Santonio Holmes is the big play threat with 59 rec (15.5) with TE Heath Miller being one of
the more underrated TE's in the NFL. Miller is adept at blocking & is a viable rec weapon. Nate Washington (46 rec, 14.8) is the #4 WR. While Limas Sweed made a pair of big plays vs BAL he is still adjusting to
the pro game & Arians is in no hurry to put him on the fi eld. Matt Spaeth is the power blocking TE & has helped shore up the OL. In the fi rst 7 games Roethlisberger was sacked once every 8 pass att's but the
line adjusted to the loss of LG Simmons & LT Smith and it was cut down to once every 13 att's. Roethlisberger isn't a "fantasy QB" but over the L8 games he has avg'd 218 ypg (56%) with a 9-4 ratio. ARZ DC
Pendergast runs a scheme driven hybrid 3-4/4-3 that adjusts to its foe week by week to exploit opposing teams weaknesses. Much like IND the Cardinals defense is at its best when operating ahead which allows
its undersized DL (6'3" 285) to go after the passer & protect itself vs the run. Darnell Dockett is the best player on the DL & is inside in a 4-3 but shifts to DE in a 3-4. ARZ may fi nd itself without DE Travis LaBoy
(torn bicep) which could force the team into more 3-4's. In its L4 games ARZ has allowed 80 ypg (3.8) vs 112 (4.0) the rest of the year. Pendergast likes to bring pressure from all angles & DE/OLB Berry leads
the team with 7 sacks incl playoffs. OLB Karlos Dansby is very active & makes things happen but he can disappear if he doesn't get off to a fast start. ARZ gets to the QB once every 17 pass att's which means
teams have had time to air it out. ARZ has given up 225 ypg passing (62%) with a 42-21 ratio including playoffs which incl a 1-5 ratio vs CAR. ARZ has a talented secondary with Rodgers-Cromartie being the
#1 CB which allowed Antrel Rolle to shift to FS full-time. SS Adrian Wilson is a top 5 safety in the NFL & one of the best playmakers on the team. ARZ is very TO dependant going 1-7 SU/1-6-1 ATS with -TO's
(-19 TO's) but 11-0 SU & 10-1 ATS with + TO's (+20 TO's). ARZ will have to be careful about putting too much pressure on Roethlisberger as he's an excellent "playground" QB & his mobility is an asset. Neither
team has a clear edge here as both run high risk/high reward schemes & while a slow start wouldn't be a surprise there should be some big plays. EDGE: NONE


CARDINALS #4 OFFENSE VS STEELERS #1 DEFENSE - The key to Super Bowl XLIII will be if the Steelers can overcome the Cardinals impressive array of weapons with their physical nature. Combined with the best set of WR's in the NFL (3 WR's w/1,000 yds) & an OL that has played all 19
games together, Warner has resurrected himself in 2008. He is just the 2nd QB to lead 2 separate teams to a Super Bowl (Craig Morton DAL SB V & DEN SB XII) fi nishing with the 3rd best QBR in the NFL based on being 3rd in att's and 2nd in comp, comp % & passing yards. His experience
has really shined in 2008 as he's been sacked 29 times or once every 24 pass att's!!! He has been rattled by defenses that consistently bring pressure & knock his WR's off their routes (i.e. NYJ, NYG,
PHI Gm 1, MIN & NE). His prime target in the passing game is Larry Fitzgerald who has seized the mantle of best WR in the NFL. Fitzgerald broke Jerry Rice's record for rec yds in a single post season (419) & was 2nd in the NFL with 1,431 yds (14.9) & tied for 1st with 12 TD's. Boldin has missed 5 games with a strained left hamstring but is a better speed threat than Fitzgerald. Breaston has developed into a standout slot WR & will likely be the #2 if Boldin is traded in the offseason. ARZ is very thin at TE due to injuries as they IR'd Stephen Spach before the PHI game & brought back Jerame Tuman who is a stout blocker but limited as a receiver. ARZ's run game only avg'd 74 ypg (3.5) with 72 rushing FD's in the regular season. RB James was benched after it was clear he lost a
gear & the team tried to accelerate the development of Tim Hightower who OC Haley considers is a young Marion Barber. Minus the STL road game he only gained 209 yds (2.4) but was effective as a short yardage/goal line RB. In James' L4 games he has avg'd 76 ypg (4.6) vs 35 ypg (3.5). While ARZ has reinforced balance in its offense the L4 games have been vs the #18, #25, #20 & #6 rush def's & they fi gure to have a much tougher time vs PIT's #2 rush def allowing 3.3 ypc. PIT fi nished
1st in total defense, net passing, red-zone, def ppg, rush ypg, rush ypc & FD's allowed. While the LB's get most of the glory the DL is the key as they clear the OL & force double teams which allow the LB's to fl ow to the ball. PIT has only allowed eight 100 yd rushers over the L6Y & fi nished 2nd in the NFL with 51 reg season sacks. The LB unit combined for 38.5 reg season sacks which is behind only the 2006 Chargers for most by a LB unit in 1 year. James Harrison became the 1st NFL UFA to win Defensive MVP with 16 sacks, 7 FF & fi nished 2nd with 101 reg ssn tackles not counting his special teams play. LaMarr Woodley became the 1st player to have B2B multi-sack playoff games & Larry Foote & James Farrior are the other starters. Ryan Clark is the glue that holds the PIT
secondary together & he frees up Polamalu to cover huge chunks of the fi eld. Ike Taylor & Deshea Townsend are the starting CB's for a secondary that has allowed 184 ypg (56%) with a 15-24 ratio & stout 5.5 ypa TY. LY's SB showed that high powered offenses can be brought down by a brutal front 7. Unlike LY however, ARZ will be very familiar with PIT's zone blitz schemes & prepared for it. PIT can be hit for big plays & ARZ showed they aren't afraid to mix up their gamebook late in the year vs PHI. Both teams will make & give up big plays & the slight edge goes with ARZ due to the depth in the passing game. SLIGHT EDGE: CARDINALS




SPECIAL TEAMS - ARZ has our #31 special teams unit for 2008 & has struggled on coverage & returns. PIT has our #16 special teams unit & while they have issues on their return units they greatly improved
their coverage units over LY's. ARZ avg'd just 7.2 on PR's (27th) & 21.7 on KR's (25th) in the regular season & that has carried over into the playoffs where they have just avg'd 4.0 on PR's. Sean Morey earned a spot in the Pro Bowl for his coverage skills but ARZ fi nished 30th on PR (13.1) & KR (25.0) coverage TY. PIT only avg'd 6.0 on PR's (31st) & 20.3 on KR's (29th) for 2008 but they were outstanding in coverage with just 6.2 on PR's (4th) & 1st in KR with 19.1 allowed. Both teams have had problems
with their punters as PIT's Berger was cut due to a hamstring injury & he fi nished with a 36.4 net avg with 19 of 66 punts inside the 20. Ben Graham only had 20 punts after being picked up mid-season &
fi nished with just a 32 net avg & 7 punts inside the 20 (reg ssn). PIT K Reed fi nished as our #15 K TY hitting 85.7% TY of FG's. ARZ K Rackers hit 89.3% of his FG's & is our #14 K for 2008. The Steelers
get a slight edge here due to their vastly improved coverage units. SLIGHT EDGE: STEELERS



COACHING - Mike Tomlin is a member of the Tony Dungy coaching tree & has indirectly been spliced into the Bill Cowher tree. Tomlin was very wise when he retained future Hall of Famer Dick LeBeau as his DC & kept the team in a 3-4 system. Bruce Arians is the OC & the Steelers are NOT a power running team anymore. They are comfortable spreading the fi eld out & letting RB Parker exploit the edges. Ken Whisenhunt is a pure offshoot of Cowher's tree & the Bidwell family hired him to install
the Steelers culture into the team. Whisenhunt has 8 assistants including vaunted OL Coach Russ Grimm that were with Steelers. Whisenhunt was the OC for the Steelers for 3 years & is very familiar with LeBeau's zone blitz schemes & will have Warner well prepared for it. OC Todd Haley cut his teeth as a WR's coach & has done an impressive job of developing the talent here. DC Clancy Pendergast worked under Dennis Green & runs a schematic system that adjusts to its foe week to week. Both
teams have top-notch staffs but Arizona gets the nod due to so many having fi eld level knowledge of Steeler players. SLIGHT EDGE: CARDINALS




PAST HISTORY MATCHUP & INTANGIBLES - This will be the 2nd meeting between Tomlin & Whisenhunt as the Cardinals beat the Steelers 21-14 as a 6 pt HD LY. ARZ was without WR Boldin due to injury & Leinart (shoulder) was hurt the previous week vs BAL forcing Whisenhunt to split time with Warner to spark the offense. PIT hit a 43 yd TD to go up 7-0 but in the 3Q with Warner running a no huddle offense ARZ tied it with a 9/70 drive. ARZ fumbled on their 4 but Roethlisberger threw an
int into the EZ on 3rd Dn. ARZ returned a punt 73 yds for a TD & on their next drive went 13/82 with a 2 yd TD by RB James. PIT went 9/92 with a 7 yd TD to WR Holmes to pull within 7 but Roethlisberger was int'd on PIT's fi nal drive. ARZ had a 301-282 yd edge as Warner had 132 yds (67%) with a 1-0 ratio in limited duty. Roethlisberger passed for 244 yds (53%) with a 2-2 ratio but was sacked 4 times. Whisenhunt has already announced that this is his "dream scenario" for a Super Bowl game which will give PIT bulletin board material. PIT knows exactly what is coming in terms of the media onslaught & will have their training schedule adjusted to compensate. ARZ is a very young team & while Warner has been here twice the Cardinals could be overwhelmed by the media here. EDGE: NONE


CONCLUSION - The Super Bowl is a great handicapping lesson. It is an isolated game & the bye week affords the media to dissect every aspect of the contest. The best value is during the regular season when Vegas posts numbers on 45 or more CFB games, with NFL sides & totals. Do not fall into the trap of putting your biggest play or anything close to it on the most isolated game in any sport. Our Super Bowl System was revised this year and it is 22-0 on game with OVER 48.5 pts (this year's SB has 49 pts) & this revised system is 32-1-2 97% on games with 21.5 pts or higher!! Don't miss out on this year's winner! Call 1-900-776-7871 for just $30 or get it using your Northcoast Debit Card for only $20! This is a classic matchup of offense vs defense. The question is can PIT's
#1 defense slow ARZ's #4 offense. The Steeler's faced only ONE true passing team this season & that was the #3 offense of HOU with 55 points being scored. ARZ's offense has been record setting becoming the FIRST team to score 30+ points in 3 straight games in a single postseason. ARZ has gone 12-3-1 "OVER" this total with the 3 games totaling 46, 44 & 47 points. PIT will also move the ball as they've topped 30+ pts in the L/3 games vs non-top10 defenses. It's not a surprise that PP calls for ARZ to only have 41 yds rushing but the close passing yardage is interesting. PIT's rushing yards are a bit low due to Parker's injuries in 2008 & they should easily surpass that. PP only projects 638 yds
of offense here but a combined 51 pts. Both teams are very capable of explosive plays & while we are undecided on the side as of this writing the total is a quality play with the Over here.
2★ STEELERS/CARDINALS: OVER
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

[FONT=Verdana,Arial,Times New I2]Kevin Kavitch - Gamebreaker[/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana,Arial,Times New I2]Week 21 [/FONT][FONT=Verdana,Arial,Times New I2]NFL [/FONT][FONT=Verdana,Arial,Times New I2]Playoff Picks - Sup[/FONT][FONT=Verdana,Arial,Times New I2]er Bowl XLIII[/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana,Arial,Times New I2]The NFL playoffs have produced a 7-1 result heading into the Super Bowl. Overall a monitored 59-38-2 61% for the season and 23-9-1 72% during the past 8 weeks.[/FONT]
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[FONT=Verdana,Arial,Times New I2]Arizona +7[/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana,Arial,Times New I2]I'm backing Arizona in the big game. Let's get to the point, the real heart and soul [/FONT][FONT=Verdana,Arial,Times New I2]of why I'm taking the points with the Cardinals. They are a long-time doormat, a [/FONT][FONT=Verdana,Arial,Times New I2]joke among the league for many years. They believe in their coaches and won't be [/FONT][FONT=Verdana,Arial,Times New I2]intimidated. In fact, I love them in the underdog role given their history. Don't [/FONT][FONT=Verdana,Arial,Times New I2]discount what their history and togetherness means when it comes to motivation and [/FONT][FONT=Verdana,Arial,Times New I2]performance. That doesn't show up in the numbers and the talking heads on TV don't [/FONT][FONT=Verdana,Arial,Times New I2]put enough value on this. They won't be able to see past the Pittsburgh D. Keep in [/FONT][FONT=Verdana,Arial,Times New I2]mind they were also dogs vs Atlanta, Carolina, and Philly headed into this one and [/FONT][FONT=Verdana,Arial,Times New I2]"shocked" the public in each game. This was supposed to be "the worst playoff team [/FONT][FONT=Verdana,Arial,Times New I2]in NFL history". You know what I think of this team because we've picked up 2 solid[/FONT] [FONT=Verdana,Arial,Times New I2]wins with them in the playoffs and the same things apply. The fact is [/FONT][FONT=Verdana,Arial,Times New I2]they're undervaled because of a slide in the 2nd half of the season which is [/FONT][FONT=Verdana,Arial,Times New I2]understandable given their huge lead in the division. With a solid OL that has [/FONT][FONT=Verdana,Arial,Times New I2]played together all year, a top-flight QB playing at the top of his game, a great[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana,Arial,Times New I2]group of receivers, and an improved D they have a punchers chance against anyone. [/FONT][FONT=Verdana,Arial,Times New I2]That includes the Steelers and that terrific D. Remember what they did in the 1st [/FONT][FONT=Verdana,Arial,Times New I2]half of the Carolina and Philly games to the opposing defenses, defenses that were [/FONT][FONT=Verdana,Arial,Times New I2]playing at high levels. Arizona proved to be too much, especially Warner who knows [/FONT][FONT=Verdana,Arial,Times New I2]how to read D's and play in big games. Also remember that in the Steelers last 4 [/FONT][FONT=Verdana,Arial,Times New I2]games, Tennesee put up 31 and San Diego put up 24. They are very good but not [/FONT][FONT=Verdana,Arial,Times New I2]invincible and Arizona has scored 30+ in 3 straight playoff games this year. The [/FONT][FONT=Verdana,Arial,Times New I2]Steeler offense isn't going to dominate the Cardinals. Arizona is much improved vs [/FONT][FONT=Verdana,Arial,Times New I2]the run down the stretch and they can put pressure on the QB and force turnovers. If [/FONT][FONT=Verdana,Arial,Times New I2]Arizona plays well offensively, Pittsburgh is not going to have a cake-walk keeping [/FONT][FONT=Verdana,Arial,Times New I2]pace. Then you get to the coaching staffs and I really like the knowledge the[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana,Arial,Times New I2]Arizona staff has when it comes to Pittsburgh. Alot of ex-Steeler coaches that have [/FONT][FONT=Verdana,Arial,Times New I2]2 weeks to figure out how to put all those little things to use. I won't go into [/FONT][FONT=Verdana,Arial,Times New I2]alot of detail, just know a significant edge is there. So Arizona was a joke for [/FONT][FONT=Verdana,Arial,Times New I2]years and maybe the Arizona coaches know some stuff but it still doesn't mean much [/FONT][FONT=Verdana,Arial,Times New I2]to you? C'mon, we're talking Pittsburgh here. Well, think back to 2002 when the[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana,Arial,Times New I2]longtime doormat Bucs led by ex-Raider coach Gruden faced off against favored [/FONT][FONT=Verdana,Arial,Times New I2]Oakland. The Bucs won outright by 27 and delivered us a solid Super Bowl win that day. But you know what I remember? The players talking afterward about the motivation they had after being a bad team for so long and the edge the former Raider coach game them.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana,Arial,Times New I2]Sound similar to what we have here? It does to me. That's the soul of this game. Add [/FONT][FONT=Verdana,Arial,Times New I2]that Super Bowl it all underdogs have performed extremely well this decade and we're[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana,Arial,Times New I2]catching +7 on a neutral field. That's a big edge and could easily come into play. [/FONT][FONT=Verdana,Arial,Times New I2]I'm taking Arizona for a 4* Regular Play plus I'm laying an extra 1/2* on Ariona to[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana,Arial,Times New I2]win outright on the +220 moneyline.[/FONT]

Game Breaker

Half with the most scoring. Pick: 2nd half -1/2 -115
This one has cashed at an extremely high rate the past 10 years and often it isn't even close. You'd think it would be a 50/50 proposition but the reality is that teams tend to feel each other out early and also pull out all the stops for 60 straight minutes making both offensive and defensive scores more likely. Lots of ways to play out as a winner. (Lay 0.3 units)

Arizona to receive the opening kickoff. Pick: YES -220
This is based on past tendencies of both teams and I don't see any reason why they'd change now. It seems steep at -220 but the reality is that it should be more than -300 given the high percentage of it cashing in. Doesn't matter who wins the toss, in the end the Steelers will defer so their D takes the field first to start the game if they win the toss and if the Cards win they'll be taking the ball. (Lay 0.2 units)

Team that scores 1st wins the game. Pick: NO +170
Playing the odds and the squares often get suckered by this one. This one cashed for us last year and is a tremendous value at +170. In fact, in recent years the 1st team to score has lost more often that not. I'll take a shot at +170. (Lay 0.2 units)

Will Roethlisberger throw at least 1 INT? Pick: YES -132
Arizona can bring pressure and they've lived off takeaways recently. Roethlisberger is definitely capable of making a mistake and even a well tipped ball gets the job done. (Lay 0.2 units)

Player to have the most receiving yards. Fitzgerald +100
He's been a monster down the stretch and even if Pittsburgh pays extra attention to him, I like his chances of making one or more long catches to help cash this prop. I'll roll the dice at even money. (Lay 0.2 units)

First score of the game will be a FG or safety. YES +150
Playing the odds and a good value play at +150. (Lay 0.2 units)

I recommend smaller recreational wagers on prop plays. For example, take the amount of an average wager or slightly more and divide it up on all 6 prop wagers (lay roughly 0.2 units each). It will make the game more interesting, minimize your risk, and give you an extra chance to earn a profit. It's very easy to get carried away with prop wagers and put multiple units at risk. Be careful not to fall into that trap and enjoy the game.<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

EZ Winners (10* top play)

10 * Arizona


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