Rainman
Here Are The Football Plays For Today:
YOUR FIVE STARS PLAY ARE:
Pittsburgh -6' over Arizona
We're putting the plays out early so you can get the game at under a TD. I recommend you make at least 1/2 your play now. If you want to wait til closer to gametime on the other 1/2, that's fine, but my feeling is that the big money will come in late on Pittsburgh.
MAKE A DOUBLE PLAY ON:
Pittsburgh & Arizona over 46'
Here Are The Football Plays For Today:
YOUR FIVE STARS PLAY ARE:
Pittsburgh -6' over Arizona
We're putting the plays out early so you can get the game at under a TD. I recommend you make at least 1/2 your play now. If you want to wait til closer to gametime on the other 1/2, that's fine, but my feeling is that the big money will come in late on Pittsburgh.
MAKE A DOUBLE PLAY ON:
Pittsburgh & Arizona over 46'
Tony Karpinski
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Arizona Cardinals
Play: Over 46.5
Super Bowl Prop Plays
B. Roethlisberger completions Over 17.5
Ben Roethlisberger posted 17.5 completions per game despite the fact that the Steelers faced a far superior schedule and defenses superior to Arizona. ALso the Steelers playoff games were in cold weather. The Cardinals’ pass defense allowed over 62% completions this season. Each of the three opposing playoff QBs completed at least 17 passes including Carolina’s Jake Delhomme, who had a miserable day. Play this prop OVER!
E. James total rushing yards Under 42.5 yards.
While James had games of 73, 57, and 73 rushing yards in the playoffs, keep in mind the Cardinals played with a lead in all of those games and were milking the clock. More importantly, none of those foes were as stout as the Steelers’ in terms of stopping the run. I don’t expect that type of success in this game. PLAY THE UNDER in this prop
Will Kurt Warner throw at least one INT? Yes!! Lay the -230 because with all the presure and possibility of a tipped pass there is a very good chance of an INT. With Pittsburgh very good at stopping the run, Arizona could potentially have even more pass attempts than normal. Quarterback Kurt Warner has thrown at least one interception in six of seven games that Cardinals have lost. Pittsburgh ranked second in the AFC in interceptions, the likelihood of this occurring outweighs the moderate sized price and this is my favorite prop to play.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Arizona Cardinals
Play: Over 46.5
Super Bowl Prop Plays
B. Roethlisberger completions Over 17.5
Ben Roethlisberger posted 17.5 completions per game despite the fact that the Steelers faced a far superior schedule and defenses superior to Arizona. ALso the Steelers playoff games were in cold weather. The Cardinals’ pass defense allowed over 62% completions this season. Each of the three opposing playoff QBs completed at least 17 passes including Carolina’s Jake Delhomme, who had a miserable day. Play this prop OVER!
E. James total rushing yards Under 42.5 yards.
While James had games of 73, 57, and 73 rushing yards in the playoffs, keep in mind the Cardinals played with a lead in all of those games and were milking the clock. More importantly, none of those foes were as stout as the Steelers’ in terms of stopping the run. I don’t expect that type of success in this game. PLAY THE UNDER in this prop
Will Kurt Warner throw at least one INT? Yes!! Lay the -230 because with all the presure and possibility of a tipped pass there is a very good chance of an INT. With Pittsburgh very good at stopping the run, Arizona could potentially have even more pass attempts than normal. Quarterback Kurt Warner has thrown at least one interception in six of seven games that Cardinals have lost. Pittsburgh ranked second in the AFC in interceptions, the likelihood of this occurring outweighs the moderate sized price and this is my favorite prop to play.
BIG AL
At 2 pm, our selection is on the Virginia Cavaliers plus the points over Duke. Earlier this week, Wake Forest won a huge game over the then-No. 1-ranked Blue Devils, 70-68 on a buzzer beater. But big games like that take a toll not only on the winner (Wake Forest suffered a letdown yesterday, and lost to Georgia Tech), but also on the loser, as it's often tough to bounce back from emotional defeats. Indeed, Duke is a miserable 12-33 ATS off a loss of 7 points or less since Feb. 4, 1995. And this is a great spot to go against a team suffering a hangover, as Duke is playing a mediocre Virginia team, with a game against #12 Clemson up next, and is laying over 20 points. Although Virginia has dropped four straight games, and five of six, the Cavaliers have a big "rest advantage" this afternoon in that they have been off for eight days. Junior guard Calvin Baker said that the rest will "give us a chance to clear our minds. No one has given up hope." Finally, off its loss, Duke falls into a negative 26-85 ATS system of mine that goes against .750 (or better) favorites of -12 or more points which are off a loss, and matched up against a foe off back-to-back losses. Look for Virginia to sneak within the number this afternoon. Take the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
BIG AL SUPER PLAY
At 6:20 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Pittsburgh/Arizona game. Two weeks ago, we played both conference championship games 'over' the total and were rewarded with a 23-14 Pittsburgh victory and a 32-25 Arizona triumph. But off those two 'overs,' I'm going to reverse gears and look for a low-scoring game here. I'm well aware that Arizona has a high-octane offense, but the Cards have yet to play a defense as good as Pittsburgh's, and only one team this season has scored more than 24 points vs. Pitt, and that was Tennessee (in a 31-14 Titans win). But the Steelers turned the ball over four times that afternoon against a strong Tennessee defense, and I don't see Arizona's defense forcing that many turnovers. For the season, Pitt only committed three or more turnovers in three games (and was 0-3 in those games). But the Steelers were 14-1 in games where they had two or less turnovers, so that's really the key here. And the three teams which forced the Steelers into all those turnovers were the Giants, Titans and Eagles -- all with much better defenses than Arizona. But Pittsburgh only surrendered 12.9 ppg outside of those three games, and really came on toward the end of the season when it gave up 14 points or less in seven of its last nine games. The bottom line is that Pittsburgh is the better team than Arizona, and will most likely dictate the tempo of this game, and turn it into a "field position" game like we saw two weeks ago vs. Baltimore. Indeed, this Steeler defense is the best to make a Super Bowl since Baltimore's led it to the 2000 championship. On offense, I look for the Steelers to pound the ball early with RBs Willie Parker and Mewelde Moore, and mix in some medium-range passing routes. The Steelers' offensive line has not impressed me this season, and the Cards' defense will be able to sack QB Ben Roethlisberger (Arizona has had seven sacks in its three playoff games), which will limit Pittsburgh's offensive output. But Pitt should play most of this game in the lead, and should the Steelers get out to a 14-point advantage, I would expect coach Mike Tomlin to make ample use of his running game, which would take time off the clock faster, and increase the chances that it goes 'under' the total. With the line higher than any of the last 22 Steeler games, we'll take advantage of the "inflation" and play the Super Bowl 'under' the total. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
At 2 pm, our selection is on the Virginia Cavaliers plus the points over Duke. Earlier this week, Wake Forest won a huge game over the then-No. 1-ranked Blue Devils, 70-68 on a buzzer beater. But big games like that take a toll not only on the winner (Wake Forest suffered a letdown yesterday, and lost to Georgia Tech), but also on the loser, as it's often tough to bounce back from emotional defeats. Indeed, Duke is a miserable 12-33 ATS off a loss of 7 points or less since Feb. 4, 1995. And this is a great spot to go against a team suffering a hangover, as Duke is playing a mediocre Virginia team, with a game against #12 Clemson up next, and is laying over 20 points. Although Virginia has dropped four straight games, and five of six, the Cavaliers have a big "rest advantage" this afternoon in that they have been off for eight days. Junior guard Calvin Baker said that the rest will "give us a chance to clear our minds. No one has given up hope." Finally, off its loss, Duke falls into a negative 26-85 ATS system of mine that goes against .750 (or better) favorites of -12 or more points which are off a loss, and matched up against a foe off back-to-back losses. Look for Virginia to sneak within the number this afternoon. Take the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
BIG AL SUPER PLAY
At 6:20 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Pittsburgh/Arizona game. Two weeks ago, we played both conference championship games 'over' the total and were rewarded with a 23-14 Pittsburgh victory and a 32-25 Arizona triumph. But off those two 'overs,' I'm going to reverse gears and look for a low-scoring game here. I'm well aware that Arizona has a high-octane offense, but the Cards have yet to play a defense as good as Pittsburgh's, and only one team this season has scored more than 24 points vs. Pitt, and that was Tennessee (in a 31-14 Titans win). But the Steelers turned the ball over four times that afternoon against a strong Tennessee defense, and I don't see Arizona's defense forcing that many turnovers. For the season, Pitt only committed three or more turnovers in three games (and was 0-3 in those games). But the Steelers were 14-1 in games where they had two or less turnovers, so that's really the key here. And the three teams which forced the Steelers into all those turnovers were the Giants, Titans and Eagles -- all with much better defenses than Arizona. But Pittsburgh only surrendered 12.9 ppg outside of those three games, and really came on toward the end of the season when it gave up 14 points or less in seven of its last nine games. The bottom line is that Pittsburgh is the better team than Arizona, and will most likely dictate the tempo of this game, and turn it into a "field position" game like we saw two weeks ago vs. Baltimore. Indeed, this Steeler defense is the best to make a Super Bowl since Baltimore's led it to the 2000 championship. On offense, I look for the Steelers to pound the ball early with RBs Willie Parker and Mewelde Moore, and mix in some medium-range passing routes. The Steelers' offensive line has not impressed me this season, and the Cards' defense will be able to sack QB Ben Roethlisberger (Arizona has had seven sacks in its three playoff games), which will limit Pittsburgh's offensive output. But Pitt should play most of this game in the lead, and should the Steelers get out to a 14-point advantage, I would expect coach Mike Tomlin to make ample use of his running game, which would take time off the clock faster, and increase the chances that it goes 'under' the total. With the line higher than any of the last 22 Steeler games, we'll take advantage of the "inflation" and play the Super Bowl 'under' the total. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
Masterbets
Pick Selection: Bet on total points scored by Arizona (OVER 20), Team to score last (Steelers -135), and Defensive/Special Teams TD (+155)
Arizona to score more than 20 points in the game - current line on this play is -110
The Team to score last in the game - Bet on the STEELERS (current line is -135)
A Defensive or Special Teams TD in the game by either team (YES at the current line of +155)
Pick Selection: Bet on total points scored by Arizona (OVER 20), Team to score last (Steelers -135), and Defensive/Special Teams TD (+155)
Arizona to score more than 20 points in the game - current line on this play is -110
The Team to score last in the game - Bet on the STEELERS (current line is -135)
A Defensive or Special Teams TD in the game by either team (YES at the current line of +155)
Wunderdog
Super Bowl XLIII Prop Picks
FIRST QUARTER UNDER 9.5 (+105)
During the 2008 regular season, an average of 8.9 points per game where scored. In the history of the Super Bowl, the average is 8.5 points. And, eight of the last nine Super Bowls have seen less than 10 points scored in the first quarter, including last year when 3 points where scored in the first quarter. The magnitude of this game seems to grow year by year, and with what's at stake, the teams nearly always go through a feeling out process early. They are trying to figure out what they can accomplish versus their opponent, and they are trying avoid big mistakes. So the play calling, and the play on the field, are conservative. The question here, as it was last year, is whether we can count on a low-scoring start when we have a game with a fairly high total. Last year's total was set higher than this one, and as stated, 3 points were scored. Looking back to Super Bowl games with totals of 47 or higher, 11 of the 17 have played to first quarter totals of ten points or less. That's
65%. Pittsburgh games this year averaged 6.3 first quarter points while Arizona's averaged 7.8 per game. So, we have history on our side, and the numbers for these two particular teams back us up. Take the UNDER here.
OVERTIME = NO (-1100)
I know most people don't like laying 11 to win 1. And if you are one of the people who can't bear to do it, then lay off this. But for those of you that are simply seeking value, then read on because this bet is laden with value. The chances of a game reaching overtime are really simple to figure out. All we need to do is look at the past. As long as we have a large enough sample, and rules haven't changed in some signifcant way, then we can be fairly certain from a statistical standpoint that the best predictor of the future will be the past. This is the case here as NFL rules have not changd in a way that would affect the chance of a game going to overtime. I have done the math. This season, we had 15 overtime games out of 256 regular season games. That equates to a 5.9% chance. I have also looked at past seasons and guess what? The long-term average tells us that the chance of an overtime game is precisely 5.9%. So we have a stat here that we can rely on. Well, what kind of moneyline does this equate to? At a 5.9% chance, the true and fair odds on this bet would be +1595 for "yes" and -1595 for "no". Here's where the value lies. The sportsbooks know that the public loves to risk a little to win a lot and so they shade the odds here. Instead of offering +1595 for "yes," they offer a horrible +650 (sportsbook.com). And on the flipside, we can grab the "no" at a huge relative value of -1100 (again at sportsbook.com). The true and fair chance of an event occurring at odds of -1100 is 84.2%. So, we are getting odds as if the chance of winning is 84% when in fact we know the chance of winning is really 94%! That my friends is called a massive overlay and I'm on it.
Super Bowl XLIII Prop Picks
FIRST QUARTER UNDER 9.5 (+105)
During the 2008 regular season, an average of 8.9 points per game where scored. In the history of the Super Bowl, the average is 8.5 points. And, eight of the last nine Super Bowls have seen less than 10 points scored in the first quarter, including last year when 3 points where scored in the first quarter. The magnitude of this game seems to grow year by year, and with what's at stake, the teams nearly always go through a feeling out process early. They are trying to figure out what they can accomplish versus their opponent, and they are trying avoid big mistakes. So the play calling, and the play on the field, are conservative. The question here, as it was last year, is whether we can count on a low-scoring start when we have a game with a fairly high total. Last year's total was set higher than this one, and as stated, 3 points were scored. Looking back to Super Bowl games with totals of 47 or higher, 11 of the 17 have played to first quarter totals of ten points or less. That's
65%. Pittsburgh games this year averaged 6.3 first quarter points while Arizona's averaged 7.8 per game. So, we have history on our side, and the numbers for these two particular teams back us up. Take the UNDER here.
OVERTIME = NO (-1100)
I know most people don't like laying 11 to win 1. And if you are one of the people who can't bear to do it, then lay off this. But for those of you that are simply seeking value, then read on because this bet is laden with value. The chances of a game reaching overtime are really simple to figure out. All we need to do is look at the past. As long as we have a large enough sample, and rules haven't changed in some signifcant way, then we can be fairly certain from a statistical standpoint that the best predictor of the future will be the past. This is the case here as NFL rules have not changd in a way that would affect the chance of a game going to overtime. I have done the math. This season, we had 15 overtime games out of 256 regular season games. That equates to a 5.9% chance. I have also looked at past seasons and guess what? The long-term average tells us that the chance of an overtime game is precisely 5.9%. So we have a stat here that we can rely on. Well, what kind of moneyline does this equate to? At a 5.9% chance, the true and fair odds on this bet would be +1595 for "yes" and -1595 for "no". Here's where the value lies. The sportsbooks know that the public loves to risk a little to win a lot and so they shade the odds here. Instead of offering +1595 for "yes," they offer a horrible +650 (sportsbook.com). And on the flipside, we can grab the "no" at a huge relative value of -1100 (again at sportsbook.com). The true and fair chance of an event occurring at odds of -1100 is 84.2%. So, we are getting odds as if the chance of winning is 84% when in fact we know the chance of winning is really 94%! That my friends is called a massive overlay and I'm on it.
JEFF BENTON
This is as much a play against Detroit as it is a play on Cleveland. The Pistons have lost three straight home games and five of their last six in their building, and overall, they’ve dropped eight of 11, both straight-up and against the number.
What’s most disturbing is that the Pistons’ three victories came against the Timberwolves, Grizzlies and Raptors – three teams that are a combined 46 games under .500! At the same time, Detroit has gone 0-5 SU and ATS in its last five against playoff-caliber opponents (home losses to the Celtics, Rockets, Mavericks and Hornets, and a blowout road loss at Utah). The other three defeats during this slump came against the Thunder (89-79) at home and the Bobcats (80-78) and Pacers (110-106) on the road.
So even though the Cavaliers haven’t exactly been road warriors lately, especially against the spread (3-7 ATS last 10 away from Cleveland), and even though they’ve lost three straight games SU and ATS to Detroit, they’re still the better bet because of how poorly the Pistons have fared lately against quality competition. And get this: The Pistons are now barely outscoring their opponents at home (94.5 ppg to 94.0 ppg) and their visitors now carry a better shooting percentage (46.2 percent to 45.3 percent for Detroit).
Throw in the fact that the Cavs are on ATS runs of 28-11 as a favorite and 37-16 overall, while the Pistons are 0-8 ATS in their last eight Sunday games and 0-4 ATS in their last four as an underdog, and this one’s a no-brainer. Look for a super-sized Super Sunday effort from LeBron James and his boys, who will be motivated to avenge one of their nine losses this season. Cleveland rolls to a double-digit win.
(based on a 1 to a 10 ♦ Rating)
4♦ CLEVELAND CAVALIERS
This is as much a play against Detroit as it is a play on Cleveland. The Pistons have lost three straight home games and five of their last six in their building, and overall, they’ve dropped eight of 11, both straight-up and against the number.
What’s most disturbing is that the Pistons’ three victories came against the Timberwolves, Grizzlies and Raptors – three teams that are a combined 46 games under .500! At the same time, Detroit has gone 0-5 SU and ATS in its last five against playoff-caliber opponents (home losses to the Celtics, Rockets, Mavericks and Hornets, and a blowout road loss at Utah). The other three defeats during this slump came against the Thunder (89-79) at home and the Bobcats (80-78) and Pacers (110-106) on the road.
So even though the Cavaliers haven’t exactly been road warriors lately, especially against the spread (3-7 ATS last 10 away from Cleveland), and even though they’ve lost three straight games SU and ATS to Detroit, they’re still the better bet because of how poorly the Pistons have fared lately against quality competition. And get this: The Pistons are now barely outscoring their opponents at home (94.5 ppg to 94.0 ppg) and their visitors now carry a better shooting percentage (46.2 percent to 45.3 percent for Detroit).
Throw in the fact that the Cavs are on ATS runs of 28-11 as a favorite and 37-16 overall, while the Pistons are 0-8 ATS in their last eight Sunday games and 0-4 ATS in their last four as an underdog, and this one’s a no-brainer. Look for a super-sized Super Sunday effort from LeBron James and his boys, who will be motivated to avenge one of their nine losses this season. Cleveland rolls to a double-digit win.
(based on a 1 to a 10 ♦ Rating)
4♦ CLEVELAND CAVALIERS
Comp
TONY WESTON
Alright, we’re about to get things going in the right direction as head back to the college hardwood where we’re taking the Penn State Nittany Lions on the road at Michigan State today.
Even though Penn State is 16-5 SU this season and is 9-4-1 ATS the Nittany Lions are still underdogs of about 13 points. And we will take every one of those points as Penn State covers easily in this one.
The Nittany Lions come into this game 5-2-1 ATS their last eight games and are 5-3 SU in that stretch and have gone 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS their last three games.
For the season Penn State is 5-2 ATS on the road and is 7-2-1 ATS its last 10 games against the Big Ten. The Nittany Lions are also 11-4-1 ATS their last 16 games overall and are 6-2-1 ATS their last nine games against teams with winning records.
Now they battle a Michigan State team that’s 1-4 ATS its last five home games and is 3-5 ATS on the road this year. The Spartans are also only 2-2 ATS their last four games and have not covered in either of their last two home games and are 0-3 ATS at home against Big Ten opponents this year.
Michigan State will struggle again at home against a conference opponent and not cover against the visiting Nittany Lions. Take the points and Penn State on the road in this one.
3♦ PENN STATE (on a 1♦ - 5♦ Scale)
TONY WESTON
Alright, we’re about to get things going in the right direction as head back to the college hardwood where we’re taking the Penn State Nittany Lions on the road at Michigan State today.
Even though Penn State is 16-5 SU this season and is 9-4-1 ATS the Nittany Lions are still underdogs of about 13 points. And we will take every one of those points as Penn State covers easily in this one.
The Nittany Lions come into this game 5-2-1 ATS their last eight games and are 5-3 SU in that stretch and have gone 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS their last three games.
For the season Penn State is 5-2 ATS on the road and is 7-2-1 ATS its last 10 games against the Big Ten. The Nittany Lions are also 11-4-1 ATS their last 16 games overall and are 6-2-1 ATS their last nine games against teams with winning records.
Now they battle a Michigan State team that’s 1-4 ATS its last five home games and is 3-5 ATS on the road this year. The Spartans are also only 2-2 ATS their last four games and have not covered in either of their last two home games and are 0-3 ATS at home against Big Ten opponents this year.
Michigan State will struggle again at home against a conference opponent and not cover against the visiting Nittany Lions. Take the points and Penn State on the road in this one.
3♦ PENN STATE (on a 1♦ - 5♦ Scale)
