Here is Norm Hitzges' Super Bowl writeup:
The Super Bowl
Trends, Analysis and Facts
Here's a gathering of various historical trends and angles applying to the Super Bowl.
The last 13 Super Bowls in which the teams were NOT equally seeded (e.g.--Pitt is the AFC's #2 seed facing Arizona the #4 NFC seed) the lower seed has posted a 10-1-2 ATS mark. This favors Arizona.
Teams entering a Super Bowl off a SU upset victory (like Arizona) are 11-6-1 ATS.
Zona's won 4 straight games. The last time they had a 5-game win streak was 1972!!
QB Ben Foethlisberger's 7-2 SU and ATS in the playoffs for Pittsburgh. He's also 29-13 ATS in his career as a favorite of 4 or more points (Wow!)
This decade AFC teams favored by 6 or more points vs NFC teams with a greater than 40% win percentage are 33-15-1 ATS.
In the last 13 Super Bowls the favorete's gone 4-7-2 ATS.
If 'Zona can hold Pitt under 30 points this beauty kicks in: The last 15 favorites to score less than 30 points are 2-12-1 ATS.
The last 25 teams who scored 20 or less points in the Super Bowl are 1-24 SU and 4-20-1 ATS. The lone winners? Last season's Giants in their 17-14 upset victory.
Exactly half of the 42 Super Bowls played have been decided by 14 points or more. In 11 other games the victory margin was between 7 and 13 points.
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The Game Itself
Pittsburgh (-7) vs Arizona Total: 46.5
There are some truly deceiving numbers in the matchups in Super Bowl XLIII.
It looks like a mediocre Steelers offense (#22 in the league) vs a mediocre Arizona defense (#19 in the NFL)
Then there's 'Zona's marvelous offense (#4) vs the #1 rated Pitt defense.
But let's look closer:
1) Pitt's supposedly shaky offense full season rating can be so deceiving. These Steelers have averaged a whopping 28.5 ppg their last 8 games and that includes meetings with some of the league's best defenses. Pitt's the #1 rated scoring "D" in the league. After them in the defensive ratings came: Tennessee, Baltimore, Philly, and the Giants. 9 of Pitt's 18 games have been against the other seven best defenses in the league. In addition, the Steelers have played several games in shaky weather conditions.
2) Arizona's apparently porous defense. Be very careful. this unit has come together to force 12 turnovers in three playoff games. They've faced Atlanta's Michael Turner, Carolina's DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart and Philly's Brian Westbrook in the playoffs and those terrific runners combined did not total 200 yards rushing. The Cards defense smothered Carolina star receiver Steve Smith holding him to a pair of harmless catches. Forget the season rankings. This Cards "D: has performed far better than its regular season ranking.
The other half of the matcup features real numbers. The Arizona offense and the Pitt defense deserve the respect their numbers suggest. Pitt, in fact allowed only one team to gain over 290 yards in aa game this year (Tennessee got 373).
Offensively Arizona's running game has perked up in the playoffs. Pitt ground game has benefitted from the return to health of Willie Parker. Both offenses should be ready to attack--especially Arizona.
I believe these Cards know they cannot sit back and simply slug it out with Pitt. They must go right after the Steelers. Warner's been terrific in the two Super Bowls he's played in and I don't feel will be rattled by the Steelers. Zona simply can't figure it will win this game playing conservatively. I look for them to go long early and often.
This, for me, sets up a higher scoring game. Pitt really hasn't faced a passing attack with this kind of potency and Pitt's offense is, as detailed, significantly better than it appears.
DOUBLE PLAY: TAKE PITT/ARIZONA OVER THE TOTAL
SINGLE PLAY: TAKE ARIZONA PLUS THE POINTS
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The Super Bowl
Trends, Analysis and Facts
Here's a gathering of various historical trends and angles applying to the Super Bowl.
The last 13 Super Bowls in which the teams were NOT equally seeded (e.g.--Pitt is the AFC's #2 seed facing Arizona the #4 NFC seed) the lower seed has posted a 10-1-2 ATS mark. This favors Arizona.
Teams entering a Super Bowl off a SU upset victory (like Arizona) are 11-6-1 ATS.
Zona's won 4 straight games. The last time they had a 5-game win streak was 1972!!
QB Ben Foethlisberger's 7-2 SU and ATS in the playoffs for Pittsburgh. He's also 29-13 ATS in his career as a favorite of 4 or more points (Wow!)
This decade AFC teams favored by 6 or more points vs NFC teams with a greater than 40% win percentage are 33-15-1 ATS.
In the last 13 Super Bowls the favorete's gone 4-7-2 ATS.
If 'Zona can hold Pitt under 30 points this beauty kicks in: The last 15 favorites to score less than 30 points are 2-12-1 ATS.
The last 25 teams who scored 20 or less points in the Super Bowl are 1-24 SU and 4-20-1 ATS. The lone winners? Last season's Giants in their 17-14 upset victory.
Exactly half of the 42 Super Bowls played have been decided by 14 points or more. In 11 other games the victory margin was between 7 and 13 points.
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The Game Itself
Pittsburgh (-7) vs Arizona Total: 46.5
There are some truly deceiving numbers in the matchups in Super Bowl XLIII.
It looks like a mediocre Steelers offense (#22 in the league) vs a mediocre Arizona defense (#19 in the NFL)
Then there's 'Zona's marvelous offense (#4) vs the #1 rated Pitt defense.
But let's look closer:
1) Pitt's supposedly shaky offense full season rating can be so deceiving. These Steelers have averaged a whopping 28.5 ppg their last 8 games and that includes meetings with some of the league's best defenses. Pitt's the #1 rated scoring "D" in the league. After them in the defensive ratings came: Tennessee, Baltimore, Philly, and the Giants. 9 of Pitt's 18 games have been against the other seven best defenses in the league. In addition, the Steelers have played several games in shaky weather conditions.
2) Arizona's apparently porous defense. Be very careful. this unit has come together to force 12 turnovers in three playoff games. They've faced Atlanta's Michael Turner, Carolina's DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart and Philly's Brian Westbrook in the playoffs and those terrific runners combined did not total 200 yards rushing. The Cards defense smothered Carolina star receiver Steve Smith holding him to a pair of harmless catches. Forget the season rankings. This Cards "D: has performed far better than its regular season ranking.
The other half of the matcup features real numbers. The Arizona offense and the Pitt defense deserve the respect their numbers suggest. Pitt, in fact allowed only one team to gain over 290 yards in aa game this year (Tennessee got 373).
Offensively Arizona's running game has perked up in the playoffs. Pitt ground game has benefitted from the return to health of Willie Parker. Both offenses should be ready to attack--especially Arizona.
I believe these Cards know they cannot sit back and simply slug it out with Pitt. They must go right after the Steelers. Warner's been terrific in the two Super Bowls he's played in and I don't feel will be rattled by the Steelers. Zona simply can't figure it will win this game playing conservatively. I look for them to go long early and often.
This, for me, sets up a higher scoring game. Pitt really hasn't faced a passing attack with this kind of potency and Pitt's offense is, as detailed, significantly better than it appears.
DOUBLE PLAY: TAKE PITT/ARIZONA OVER THE TOTAL
SINGLE PLAY: TAKE ARIZONA PLUS THE POINTS
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sports betting professor
We are fast approaching what many people regard as the most anticipated sportsbetting day of the year. While most smart bettors know there is more value found on an NBA Tuesday than on the Super Bowl, you can't deny that the day captures the attention of the American public like no other. Chances are this isn't a game that you'll be sitting at home and watching by yourself even if you're not from Pittsburgh or Arizona. And that's why even though the game does not fit into my system I have a couple of recommendations for the game Sunday. The game information you are about to read, comes direct from Sports Insights, the leading sports information site found on the Internet. Through exclusive agreements with offshore sportsbooks, they have direct betting stats - so you know EXACTLY where the money is going. They also have the quickest line updates in the world. You can reach Sports Insights by clicking here. According to Sports Insights: Current Betting Percentages on the Super Bowl
Pittsburg Steelers 42%
Arizona Cardinals 58% For the Superbowl, the “generally-available” line opened at Pittsburgh -6.5. As we saw above, early Superbowl betting has most of the bets (about 60%) coming in on the underdog Arizona Cardinals. Even with the majority of bets landing on Arizona, the line has inched up to Pittsburgh -7. This is a relatively large move in the NFL – especially near a “key number” like 7. This means that “big money” – which is usually “smart money” – is taking the Steelers. In other words, even though most bettors are on Arizona, “big bets” on Pittsburgh are more than balancing the Public's action on Arizona. This indicator says to go along with the “smart money” and take Pittsburgh. In addition to our “quant” or “technical” analysis of the sports marketplace (based on “betting percentages” and “line movement”), SportsInsights tries to analyze games using some approaches that resemble “fundamental analysis” in the financial markets. For example, are there some extraneous factors that make a bet seem over-valued or under-valued? We try to “buy low and sell high” by using a “what-have-you-done-for-me-lately?” factor. That is, the Public tends to exaggerate the importance of recent events. Arizona's offense has been pounding the opposition. After being one of the highest-scoring teams during the regular season, Kurt Warner and crew have rung up more than 30 points in each of their playoff match-ups. Warner and his receivers look like they are playing pick-up football against a bunch of five-year-olds! The Public loves offense and this is another reason we feel that Arizona is currently over-valued. We'll “sell” the Cardinals at a recent “high.” During the early part of the regular season, the media focused on teams like Tennessee and both NY teams as “Superbowl favorites.” Later in the season, fans saw teams like the Eagles, the Chargers, and the Colts streak into the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Pittsburgh Steelers played “steady football” all season long and “quietly” (if you can call their defense quiet!) ran up a 12-4 record, yielding a league-low 223 points. Some of the intangibles point to “selling” the Cardinals at a “high” and “buying” a great Steelers team that avoided being over-hyped. SportsInsights' analysts took a quick peek at recent Superbowl scores.
• 3 out of the last 5 Superbowls were settled by a FG or less.
• 4 out of the last 7 Superbowls were settled by a FG or less.
• 6 out the last 11 Superbowls were settled by a TD or less. We normally hate giving 7 points or more (or even taking a favorite!). However, we let the numbers do the talking. And, yet again, the recent history of Superbowls (and an emphasis on shorter-term events) might be giving us some value. Over the much larger sample size of 42 Superbowl games: • 29 out of 42 games have been settled by more than a TD. Football fans seem to be forgetting how we used to see lopsided (and sadly, sometimes boring) Superbowls. This is giving us some value as the general Public is taking the points in this Superbowl. This is the type of information you will have access to if you have a membership with Sports Insights, the best sports information site in the world. Get started with Sports Insights today. And you can still get Pittsburgh at -6.5 at a few shops. That is our side bet for the Super Bowl: Pittsburgh Steelers For the total in the game, we are betting the Under. Again, THESE PLAYS ARE NOT STRICT Sports Betting Professor system plays. We are betting the Under because that is where the smart money, big bets are coming in at all the offshore outs that I have connections with. These include some of the biggest credit shops in the world located in Curacao and Costa Rica. To reiterate: our plays (not strict SBP plays) for the Super Bowl are ... Pittsburgh Steelers Under If you're out has Pittsburgh -7, I recommend buying them down to 6.5. If you're sportsbook has the total at 46.5, I recommend buying it up to 47. Good luck and enjoy the game,Rich
We are fast approaching what many people regard as the most anticipated sportsbetting day of the year. While most smart bettors know there is more value found on an NBA Tuesday than on the Super Bowl, you can't deny that the day captures the attention of the American public like no other. Chances are this isn't a game that you'll be sitting at home and watching by yourself even if you're not from Pittsburgh or Arizona. And that's why even though the game does not fit into my system I have a couple of recommendations for the game Sunday. The game information you are about to read, comes direct from Sports Insights, the leading sports information site found on the Internet. Through exclusive agreements with offshore sportsbooks, they have direct betting stats - so you know EXACTLY where the money is going. They also have the quickest line updates in the world. You can reach Sports Insights by clicking here. According to Sports Insights: Current Betting Percentages on the Super Bowl
Pittsburg Steelers 42%
Arizona Cardinals 58% For the Superbowl, the “generally-available” line opened at Pittsburgh -6.5. As we saw above, early Superbowl betting has most of the bets (about 60%) coming in on the underdog Arizona Cardinals. Even with the majority of bets landing on Arizona, the line has inched up to Pittsburgh -7. This is a relatively large move in the NFL – especially near a “key number” like 7. This means that “big money” – which is usually “smart money” – is taking the Steelers. In other words, even though most bettors are on Arizona, “big bets” on Pittsburgh are more than balancing the Public's action on Arizona. This indicator says to go along with the “smart money” and take Pittsburgh. In addition to our “quant” or “technical” analysis of the sports marketplace (based on “betting percentages” and “line movement”), SportsInsights tries to analyze games using some approaches that resemble “fundamental analysis” in the financial markets. For example, are there some extraneous factors that make a bet seem over-valued or under-valued? We try to “buy low and sell high” by using a “what-have-you-done-for-me-lately?” factor. That is, the Public tends to exaggerate the importance of recent events. Arizona's offense has been pounding the opposition. After being one of the highest-scoring teams during the regular season, Kurt Warner and crew have rung up more than 30 points in each of their playoff match-ups. Warner and his receivers look like they are playing pick-up football against a bunch of five-year-olds! The Public loves offense and this is another reason we feel that Arizona is currently over-valued. We'll “sell” the Cardinals at a recent “high.” During the early part of the regular season, the media focused on teams like Tennessee and both NY teams as “Superbowl favorites.” Later in the season, fans saw teams like the Eagles, the Chargers, and the Colts streak into the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Pittsburgh Steelers played “steady football” all season long and “quietly” (if you can call their defense quiet!) ran up a 12-4 record, yielding a league-low 223 points. Some of the intangibles point to “selling” the Cardinals at a “high” and “buying” a great Steelers team that avoided being over-hyped. SportsInsights' analysts took a quick peek at recent Superbowl scores.
• 3 out of the last 5 Superbowls were settled by a FG or less.
• 4 out of the last 7 Superbowls were settled by a FG or less.
• 6 out the last 11 Superbowls were settled by a TD or less. We normally hate giving 7 points or more (or even taking a favorite!). However, we let the numbers do the talking. And, yet again, the recent history of Superbowls (and an emphasis on shorter-term events) might be giving us some value. Over the much larger sample size of 42 Superbowl games: • 29 out of 42 games have been settled by more than a TD. Football fans seem to be forgetting how we used to see lopsided (and sadly, sometimes boring) Superbowls. This is giving us some value as the general Public is taking the points in this Superbowl. This is the type of information you will have access to if you have a membership with Sports Insights, the best sports information site in the world. Get started with Sports Insights today. And you can still get Pittsburgh at -6.5 at a few shops. That is our side bet for the Super Bowl: Pittsburgh Steelers For the total in the game, we are betting the Under. Again, THESE PLAYS ARE NOT STRICT Sports Betting Professor system plays. We are betting the Under because that is where the smart money, big bets are coming in at all the offshore outs that I have connections with. These include some of the biggest credit shops in the world located in Curacao and Costa Rica. To reiterate: our plays (not strict SBP plays) for the Super Bowl are ... Pittsburgh Steelers Under If you're out has Pittsburgh -7, I recommend buying them down to 6.5. If you're sportsbook has the total at 46.5, I recommend buying it up to 47. Good luck and enjoy the game,Rich
ATS Sports Club
February 1, 2009
NFL Winners:
Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5
Steelers/Cardinals over 46
Soccer Back of the Net Winners:
French Ligue 1
Marseille vs. Sochaux over 2
Dutch Eredivisie
NEC Nijmegen vs. Feyenoord Rotterdam over 2.5
Dutch Eredivisie
Sparta Rotterdam vs. AZ Alkmaar over 2.5
I'll have the rest of the card in the morning.
February 1, 2009
NFL Winners:
Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5
Steelers/Cardinals over 46
Soccer Back of the Net Winners:
French Ligue 1
Marseille vs. Sochaux over 2
Dutch Eredivisie
NEC Nijmegen vs. Feyenoord Rotterdam over 2.5
Dutch Eredivisie
Sparta Rotterdam vs. AZ Alkmaar over 2.5
I'll have the rest of the card in the morning.
ChicagoSportsConnection
CSC NCAAB
OVER 114.5...Iowa@ Ill..............2 EDT
The # is set low because the last two meetings betwen these two finished at 105 and 114.
Also...ILL scored 36 points VS Minn on Wednesday.
The best way for ILL to forget about that low output will be to score 65 or 70 today vs Iowa.
ILL averages 72 points @ home.
..............predicted score...ILL 69-59
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NBA
OVER 180...Cleveland @ Detroit...2:20 EDT
11 of the past 12 CLEV games have finished OVER 180 .
3 of the past 4 DET games have finished OVER 180.
.......predicted score...CLEV 96-94
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SUPER BOWL
Tough call.
Let's sit back and enjoy the day.
Bet a couple props....
Listen to Madden talk about food...
Watch "Bruce" ruin the halftime show with his garbage music....
Watch the silly comercials....and just plain enjoy ourselves.
We deserve some relaxation.
Good luck guys and enjoy the Holiday.
************************************************
CSC NCAAB
OVER 114.5...Iowa@ Ill..............2 EDT
The # is set low because the last two meetings betwen these two finished at 105 and 114.
Also...ILL scored 36 points VS Minn on Wednesday.
The best way for ILL to forget about that low output will be to score 65 or 70 today vs Iowa.
ILL averages 72 points @ home.
..............predicted score...ILL 69-59
*************************************************
NBA
OVER 180...Cleveland @ Detroit...2:20 EDT
11 of the past 12 CLEV games have finished OVER 180 .
3 of the past 4 DET games have finished OVER 180.
.......predicted score...CLEV 96-94
*************************************************
SUPER BOWL
Tough call.
Let's sit back and enjoy the day.
Bet a couple props....
Listen to Madden talk about food...
Watch "Bruce" ruin the halftime show with his garbage music....
Watch the silly comercials....and just plain enjoy ourselves.
We deserve some relaxation.
Good luck guys and enjoy the Holiday.
************************************************
Rainman
5* Pitt
2* Over
Props (says play 1/4 your normal bet)
National Anthem Over
Team Punt First Arizona
Special Team or Defensive Score YES
Longest Punt Return - PITT
Arizona under 20 points
Arizona convert a 4th down- YES
1st Player to Score- Parker, Fitzgerald, Breston, Miller, Ward
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5* Pitt
2* Over
Props (says play 1/4 your normal bet)
National Anthem Over
Team Punt First Arizona
Special Team or Defensive Score YES
Longest Punt Return - PITT
Arizona under 20 points
Arizona convert a 4th down- YES
1st Player to Score- Parker, Fitzgerald, Breston, Miller, Ward
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Your pick will be graded at: -7 Belmont
EXPERT: Lee Kostroski
REASON FOR PICK: PLAY ON 4* Pittsburgh (-) vs. Arizona, 6:20 PM EST on Sunday, February 1st
It all comes down to this? The Arizona Cardinals are in the Super Bowl?! Sure they have had a nice run the last three weeks to get here, but they DO NOT stand a chance against the Steelers. Pittsburgh has played 13 games this year (including playoffs) against teams with a .500 record or better. They are much more battle tested than the Cardinals and have the NFL’s best defense. They have also used this extra week off to heal up after their very physical match-up with the Ravens in the conference championship. Defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau is a mastermind when it comes to scheming against opposing offenses and he won’t allow Arizona to jump out to an early lead, as the Cardinals have throughout the playoffs. With a far superior defense and an opportunistic offense, the Pittsburgh Steelers will be crowned the NFL Champions on February 1st.
Arizona has been playing very well since their 7-47 loss to New England on Dec. 21st. The Cardinals are averaging 32 points and 386 yards per game in their last 4 games. In the playoffs alone, they have 95 total points in just 3 games. They have been jumping to early leads as 65 of their 95 playoff points have come in the first half. Arizona has been playing the role as the underdog to perfection, as NO ONE expected them to make it this far, and they have benefited from playing two playoff games at home and also a road game in which Carolina committed 6 turnovers. We do not see Pittsburgh taking Arizona lightly, committing silly turnovers, or allowing Arizona to jump to an early lead.
We mentioned before how Pittsburgh has the best defense in the NFL, ranking 1st in passing defense, scoring defense, and total defense, and 2nd in rushing defense. Since their Nov. 9th loss to the Colts, the Steelers pass defense allows just 51% completions for 168 yards per game, allowing just 6 touchdowns and forcing 16 interceptions. Their great pass defense is correlated with their pass rush, as they were 2nd in the NFL during the regular season with 51 sacks. Arizona QB Kurt Warner has had a great post-season so far, but he hasn’t seen a defense like Pittsburgh’s.
This makes the Cardinals season just getting to this point, as they didn’t expect to be here at all. The Steelers aren’t satisfied with just ‘being here,’ they are expecting to walk away with the Lombardi Trophy. They have more playoff experience and a better defense; going with the old cliché: Defense wins championships. Go with Pittsburgh.
EXPERT: Lee Kostroski
REASON FOR PICK: PLAY ON 4* Pittsburgh (-) vs. Arizona, 6:20 PM EST on Sunday, February 1st
It all comes down to this? The Arizona Cardinals are in the Super Bowl?! Sure they have had a nice run the last three weeks to get here, but they DO NOT stand a chance against the Steelers. Pittsburgh has played 13 games this year (including playoffs) against teams with a .500 record or better. They are much more battle tested than the Cardinals and have the NFL’s best defense. They have also used this extra week off to heal up after their very physical match-up with the Ravens in the conference championship. Defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau is a mastermind when it comes to scheming against opposing offenses and he won’t allow Arizona to jump out to an early lead, as the Cardinals have throughout the playoffs. With a far superior defense and an opportunistic offense, the Pittsburgh Steelers will be crowned the NFL Champions on February 1st.
Arizona has been playing very well since their 7-47 loss to New England on Dec. 21st. The Cardinals are averaging 32 points and 386 yards per game in their last 4 games. In the playoffs alone, they have 95 total points in just 3 games. They have been jumping to early leads as 65 of their 95 playoff points have come in the first half. Arizona has been playing the role as the underdog to perfection, as NO ONE expected them to make it this far, and they have benefited from playing two playoff games at home and also a road game in which Carolina committed 6 turnovers. We do not see Pittsburgh taking Arizona lightly, committing silly turnovers, or allowing Arizona to jump to an early lead.
We mentioned before how Pittsburgh has the best defense in the NFL, ranking 1st in passing defense, scoring defense, and total defense, and 2nd in rushing defense. Since their Nov. 9th loss to the Colts, the Steelers pass defense allows just 51% completions for 168 yards per game, allowing just 6 touchdowns and forcing 16 interceptions. Their great pass defense is correlated with their pass rush, as they were 2nd in the NFL during the regular season with 51 sacks. Arizona QB Kurt Warner has had a great post-season so far, but he hasn’t seen a defense like Pittsburgh’s.
This makes the Cardinals season just getting to this point, as they didn’t expect to be here at all. The Steelers aren’t satisfied with just ‘being here,’ they are expecting to walk away with the Lombardi Trophy. They have more playoff experience and a better defense; going with the old cliché: Defense wins championships. Go with Pittsburgh.
Cajun-Sports Executive- Sunday
Handicapper: Cajun Sports
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Arizona Cardinals (NFL) - 6:25 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: 6.5/-100 Arizona Cardinals Play Title: Cajuns NFL 4-Star Super Bowl Winner 17-0-2 ATS
Click Here to View Pick Analysis
This season’s NFL Championship will be decided on Sunday as the Steelers make their 7th Super Bowl appearance to take on a Cardinals team making their first ever showing in this extravaganza.
In fact, Arizona’s division title this year was their first since 1975, when the team resided in St. Louis and called the NFC East home. The team’s playoff appearance this season is just the second in the span of 24 seasons, and the team earned a postseason home game for the first time since 1947.
Arizona's three wins in the 2008 playoffs - over the Falcons, Panthers and Eagles - were more playoff victories than the club had recorded in its previous 87 years of existence - combined.
Obviously, the Cards are viewed as an unlikely Super Bowl participant due not only to their dismal history, but to their occasionally shoddy play in this, their NFC West Championship season.
Ken Whisenhunt's club went just 9-7 in 2008, making Arizona the weakest of the NFC's six playoff entries. Arizona was 0-5 on the east coast during the regular season prior to their 20-point upset of the Panthers in the NFC Divisional Round, including decisive losses to the Jets, Eagles, and Patriots, allowing 47+ points in each game.
Following the retirement of Bill Cowher 2 years ago, Whisenhunt and current Arizona assistant head coach Russ Grimm were both interviewed, and eventually passed over, for the head job that went to Pittsburgh's Mike Tomlin in 2007.
Tomlin has become the youngest coach to lead a team to the Super Bowl with the Black and Gold's 23-14 AFC Championship win over the Ravens. The Steelers are now seeking what would be an NFL-record sixth Super Bowl title, which would break a tie with the Cowboys and 49ers for the most all-time.
Both starting quarterbacks will be seeking a second Super Bowl win on Sunday, with the Steelers' Ben Roethlisberger and Cardinals' Kurt Warner both attempting to become multiple Super Bowl winners.
Warner, who also lost a Super Bowl as a member of the Rams in 2001, can become the first starting QB in NFL history to win a Super Bowl with two different teams.
The Steelers lead the all-time series with the Cardinals, which dates back to the 1933 season, by a 31-23-3 count; however, Whisenhunt won his only meeting with Pittsburgh since leaving the Steel City, guiding the Cardinals to a 21-14 victory in Week 4 of the 2007 season at University of Phoenix Stadium.
Ben Roethlisberger will be trying to erase the memory of his poor performance in Super Bowl XL, when he completed just 9-of-21 passes for 123 yards with zero touchdowns and two interceptions. Roethlisberger did rush for a (controversial) touchdown in the game, but his 22.6 passer rating remains the worst for a winning quarterback in Super Bowl history. The former Pro Bowler has made several big plays in this postseason, and has thrown a pair of touchdown passes without a turnover in the 2008 playoffs; however, in his last meeting with the Cardinals, in Week 4 of the 2007 season, Roethlisberger threw two picks and was sacked four times on a 17-of-32, 244-yard passing day, and his team lost the game.
Pittsburgh RB Willie Parker has played good football of late and can point to a strong Super Bowl showing 3 years ago, his work last time out against the Cardinals left much to be desired. Arizona held him to 37 yards on 19 carries in that game last season.
The most notable Steelers injury heading into Super Bowl XLIII is the knee sprain suffered by WR Hines Ward against Baltimore, though the ailment is not expected to keep him out or limit his availability in the game. Ward was huge in Super Bowl XL, catching five passes for 123 yards including a 43-yard fourth quarter TD catch on a trick play pass from fellow WR Randle El. WR Santonio Holmes has made giant plays in both of the team's 2008 playoff games, as he has scored on a 67- yard punt return and 65-yard touchdown catch in these playoffs.
Much of Pittsburgh's offensive inconsistency in 2008 can be laid at the feet of a struggling line that neither showed a great push in the running game nor managed to keep Roethlisberger upright for any length of time. Tackles Max Starks and Willie Colon were at the forefront of a pass-blocking group that surrendered 49 sacks on the year. The Steelers allowed four sacks to Baltimore in the AFC Championship. Now, the Pittsburgh o-line will have to face a young and active Arizona defensive line.
Cardinals Antonio Smith and Bertrand Berry have really stepped up their play during Arizona's postseason run, with the duo combining for four of the team's seven sacks in the playoffs. Berry topped the Cardinals with five quarterback takedowns in the regular season despite often sharing time with Travis LaBoy.
Darnell Dockett compensates for a lack of ideal size for an interior defender with tremendous quickness and explosion off the snap, qualities that enabled the energetic tackle to generate nine sacks and earn a Pro Bowl nod in 2007.
The Arizona linebacking crew is also under-rated, as this quality crew is headlined by Karlos Dansby. Rugged middle linebacker Gerald Hayes has been one of the keys to the team's resurgence in defending the run, while veteran Chike Okeafor put together a solid season after missing all of 2007 with a torn biceps.
The Cardinals ranked an unwanted 30th in the NFL in pass efficiency defense during the regular season, but an area that was a major weakness early on has been upgraded with the emergence of rookie Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie at one of the cornerback spots. The first-round draft choice has become a lock-down defender in the season's second half and has snared six interceptions over Arizona's last six games.
Strong safety Adrian Wilson may not have the notoriety of Pittsburgh's Troy Polamalu, but the team captain's exceptional blend of size and skill make him just as vital to the success of the Cardinals' defense as Polamalu is to the Steelers. Former first-round pick Antrel Rolle seems to have found a home at free safety after flopping as a cornerback and has a flair for the big play. The fourth-year pro had a momentum-changing fumble return touchdown against Atlanta in the NFC Wild Card round, his fifth defensive score in the past two years.
Looking at the Cardinals on offense, they are in great hands with the rejuvenated Kurt Warner at the controls of the NFL's second-ranked passing offense. Warner is a two-time league MVP who's played in two previous Super Bowls with the St. Louis Rams and owns a stellar 8-2 career postseason record. Advanced age has not seemed to diminish his arm strength or accuracy, as Warner completed better than 67 percent of his passes in the regular season.
Edgerrin James and Tim Hightower have been a most effective duo during Arizona's remarkable postseason run, although they'll have their toughest challenge to date from Pittsburgh's stingy rushing defense. Hightower has quickly established himself as a strong short-yardage runner and a capable receiver who caught the deciding touchdown pass in the team's 32-25 victory over Philadelphia in the NFC Championship.
There's not a team in the league that can best the Cardinals' top-notch receiving trio of Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, and Steve Breaston, with the group becoming only the fifth threesome in NFL history to eclipse 1,000 receiving yards in a single season. The dazzling Fitzgerald has been virtually unstoppable down the stretch, as the first-team All-Pro has amassed five straight 100-yard outings and hauled in eight touchdown passes over that stretch. The fearless Boldin missed some time during the playoffs with a hamstring strain, but the sure-handed wideout should be close to 100% for the Super Bowl.
The offensive Line is another area on the Arizona team that has raised its level of play during the team’s unexpected run to the Super Bowl. The five-man contingent has provided excellent protection for Warner, who's been sacked just three times in Arizona's playoff wins, and skillfully opened holes for the running backs. Of course, the Cardinals offense will have its biggest challenge yet, going up against the Steelers NFL-leading defense.
Perhaps the most unsung component of Pittsburgh’s stop unit is their three-man front, which consists of space-eating nose tackle Casey Hampton and ends Aaron Smith and Brett Keisel. Hampton and Smith had four tackles each in Super Bowl XL, and Hampton had a sack of Seattle's Matt Hasselbeck in that contest.
Any plays that the d-line has not made against opposing running games this season have been cleaned up mainly by the Steelers' inside linebacker rotation of James Farrior, Larry Foote and Lawrence Timmons. Farrior had a team-high nine tackles against the Ravens in the AFC Championship game, while Timmons chipped in with a game-sealing fumble recovery that followed a monster hit by safety Ryan Clark on Ravens running back Willis McGahee. Farrior was one of three Steelers named to the AFC Pro Bowl team back in December, along with Harrison and safety Troy Polamalu.
The engine of the Steelers defense is their pass rush, led by Harrison and fellow OLB LaMarr Woodley. Harrison has had the stronger year, but when he was shut out of the sack category against the Ravens in the AFC Championship, Woodley helped pick up the slack with a pair of sacks.
No position on the field for Pittsburgh will be under more scrutiny than cornerback, as Ike Taylor, Deshea Townsend, and Bryant McFadden will be the main figures trying to contain the 1,000-yard Arizona receiving trio. The group struggled against Fitzgerald last time out, surrendering 10 receptions for 120 yards to the All-Pro in their 2007 meeting, and caught a break when Boldin sat out that game due to injury.
If the Steelers are to contain Fitzgerald and Boldin, they'll need a great deal of help from safeties Polamalu and Ryan Clark, who both come off fine seasons and notable performances in the AFC Championship. On a 3rd-and-13 play with under five minutes left and the Steelers ahead, 16-14, a floated pass by Flacco was intercepted by Polamalu, whose 40-yard runback for a touchdown put Baltimore in an insurmountable 23-14 hole.
The teams also match up fairly evenly on special teams. After two subpar seasons that followed a record-setting 2005 campaign, the Cardinals' Neil Rackers rebounded with a excellent year in which the strong-legged kicker made good on 25-of-28 field goal attempts prior to the playoffs. He then converted 5-of-7 three-point tries in Arizona's three postseason games, with both misses coming from beyond 50 yards.
Although Ben Graham has solidified this position somewhat during the playoffs, the Cardinals ranked 31st out of 32 NFL teams in net punting in the regular season. The Australian veteran has lost some leg strength over the past couple of years, but still gets good hang time and placement on his kicks.
The Steelers are fully aware of Steve Breaston's punt-returning skills, since the sophomore wideout delivered a 73-yard touchdown in Arizona's 21-14 win over Pittsburgh last season. Reserve running back J.J. Arrington has two kick return touchdowns over the last three years, including a 93-yard score that helped spur a critical overtime victory over Dallas in mid-October, and ranked among the NFC leaders in that category with a 25.6 yard average.
The Cardinals produced the NFC's special teams representative for the upcoming Pro Bowl in Sean Morey, who led the club with 22 coverage tackles and blocked a punt in overtime that created the winning touchdown in the Week 6 win over the Cowboys.
The Steelers have a reliable leg in seventh-year kicker Jeff Reed, who was 27-of-31 on field goals during the regular season. In the AFC Championship, Reed was 3-for-3 on field goals, connecting on kicks of 34, 42, and 46 yards in less-than-ideal conditions.
Steelers punter Mitch Berger was competent but unspectacular during the regular season, but the 36-year-old journeyman has not kicked well during the playoffs. Berger has punted to averages of just 41.5 (gross) and 33.4 yards (net) on 11 punts, and has not placed a single kick inside the 20-yard-line.
Santonio Holmes was not necessarily sensational on punt returns during the regular season, averaging just 6.6 yards per attempt, but showed against the Chargers that he possesses big-play ability if given some space. In addition to his performance against the Bolts, Holmes also had a nice 25-yard punt return against a good Ravens punt coverage group in the AFC Championship.
The Steelers coverage groups did a consistently credible job during the regular season, allowing 19.3 yards per kickoff return and 6.2 yards per punt return without surrendering a touchdown on either avenue. Some cracks have formed in the foundation during the postseason, however. The Chargers' Darren Sproles broke free for a 63-yard kickoff return in the Divisional Playoff round, while Baltimore's Jim Leonhard set up a touchdown with a 45-yard punt return in the AFC Championship. Also, the Steelers allowed a 73-yard punt return for a touchdown to Arizona's Steve Breaston when the teams met in Week 4 of the 2007 campaign.
We believe in the adage “defense wins championships”; however, that doesn’t mean great defensive teams will cover pointspreads as large favorites. The Steelers aren't a great offensive football team, although they did cover sizeable pointspreads in their 2 playoffs games so far this season. We would point out though, that Pittsburgh enjoyed the advantage of 2 home games in less-than-ideal conditions and played foes with serious deficiencies. The Chargers were without “LT”, while the Ravens were playing with a rookie QB, who was in over his head in the AFC Championship Game. Here, Pittsburgh will be on a neutral field against an opponent at full strength being led by a veteran, Super Bowl-winning QB.
It might not be whether Pittsburgh's defense can hold down Arizona's offense, but by how much. Dick LeBeau issues goals to his defense and each game they enter with a goal of holding the opposing offense to 17 points.
They figure if they do that, they have a high chance of winning. Five times the past season, opponents scored more than 17 points against the Steelers, although not all of those points came against their defense. The Steelers lost three of those games and another went into overtime before they won.
Against the Cardinals' dynamic offense, that goal might have to be stretched somewhat. But by how much - 20, 24, 27? That would put more pressure on Pittsburgh's offense to ring up some points, and the Steelers have had a spotty record of that this season.
Pittsburgh ranked 20th in the NFL with an average of 21.7 points per game during the regular season.
The pressure might not be on the Steelers defense to stop Arizona's productive offense as much as it will be on their own offense to produce more than it has much of the season. And that will mean the Steelers need a good game from their quarterback, certainly better than the Super Bowl he played three years ago. The Steelers beat Seattle, 21-10, almost in spite of Ben Roethlisberger.
While “Big Ben” was perhaps an overwhelmed youngster in that Super Bowl 3 years ago, he faces a different problem this time, as one of our football handicapping keys is to:
Play ON a team with a new head coach or assistant that was previously with his new team’s current opponent.
This situation is especially strong if the coach left with a bitter taste in his mouth and/or his new team is an underdog. These coaches know their ex-team and ex-players very well, and if the schemes they left behind are still in tact, they will have a huge gameplanning edge.
Arizona certainly fits the bill here, as they have coaches that spent a lot of time coaching many of the Steelers, including Roethlisberger. Both sides are downplaying it, but the fact is that Cardinals coach Ken Whisenhunt was Roethlisberger's offensive coordinator for his first three seasons in the NFL. Arizona’s offensive line coach Russ Grimm also held that job in Pittsburgh and played a big part in formulating game plans with Whisenhunt. They have intimate knowledge of what Roethlisberger prefers and does not like in terms of how he's blitzed, from where, etc.
The Cardinals staff also includes former Steelers assistants Billy Davis (linebackers), Mike Miller (wide receivers), Matt Reich (defensive assistant), and Kevin Spencer (special teams). Former Steelers players on the team include injured linebacker Clark Haggans, tight end Jerame Tuman, quarterback Brian St. Pierre and Pro Bowl special teamer Sean Morey.
Roethlisberger was inconsistent this season after an outstanding 2007. He was down to 17 TD passes and an 80.1 passer rating, down from 32 TDs and a 104.1 rating in 2007, both team records. Yet he also had five winning drives in the fourth quarter or OT in 2008, and had to do so under a lot of pressure behind a so-so line - he was sacked 46 times.
Results of previous regular-season meetings are hardly foolproof indicators of what might transpire in a postseason rematch. That's especially true if the last meeting between the teams occurred in a prior campaign. Nonetheless, because of the unique dynamics involved between Pittsburgh and Arizona, a review of 2007's 21-14 Cardinal win is in order.
The Steelers entered that game hot, having scored 97 points in winning their first 3 games in impressive fashion, but they were mostly held in check by the Arizona defense that afternoon. Indeed, Pittsburgh WR Santonio Holmes thought Whisenhunt's familiarity with his old team proved a bonus for the Big Red. "I think coach Whiz knew some of our weak points of our offense," said Holmes. "He was sending guys left and right, bringing pressure as much as he could to try and disrupt our offense." The Steelers' usually robust infantry was slowed to a crawl, Willie Parker gaining only 37 YR on 19 carries, while QB Ben Roethlisberger tossed a pair of picks and was sacked 4 times and suffered his worst QB rating of the season.
Meanwhile, Kurt Warner came off the bench to relieve the ineffective Matt Leinart for Arizona, with the vet QB leading a second-half comeback. Arizona, with Edgerrin James gaining 77 yards on the ground, actually outrushed Pittsburgh, while Card WR Fitzgerald caught those 10 passes despite being the focus of Steeler pass coverage with fellow WR Boldin out with an injury.
It's apparent that Whisenhunt's familiarity with his old Steeler troops made the difference in the last meeting. While, Pittsburgh may be a bit of a different bunch than it was in September of 2007, the Cards are hardly the same team they were last year, either.
They're a lot better.
It's also worth noting that Whisenhunt & Co. have had nearly a full season to make adjustments, which is exactly what they've done in the postseason. The Big Red has successfully balanced their offense in the playoffs, thanks to the re-emergence of Edgerrin James. And Warner has dealt successfully with some of the NFC's best defenses in the postseason, with the Cards cracking the 30-point barrier in each of their three playoff games. It would be hard to argue that the Steeler defense is playing any better than Philadelphia's was entering the NFC title game, but Warner & Co. jumped on the Eagles early and had enough poise and presence to weather the desperate Philly rally, resolutely driving 72 yards in 14 plays for the winning TD in the waning moments at Glendale. Versus the Julius Peppers-led Carolina pass rush in the division round, and against the variety of blitzes of Eagle DC Jim Johnson in the NFC title game, Warner's savvy reads and quick release helped diffuse the best of pass rushes, even as it can against Dick LeBeau's patented zone blitzers. And no opposing secondary has figured out a way to slow the rampant Fitzgerald in the postseason.
Forget Arizona’s publicized shortcomings on the road, especially in the eastern time zone, during the regular season. The Cards exorcized those demons with their runaway win at Carolina, which boasted the only 8-0 home record during the regular season. The dynamics of the Super Bowl, where the teams spend almost a week at the game's locale, are far different than a normal, hurried-up, regular-season road trip, anyway. It should also be noted that Pittsburgh was not infallible away from home this season, falling embarrassingly short in two of its toughest tests away from Heinz Field - smothered by the Eagle defense in a 15-6 early-season loss at the Linc, and outclassed decisively at Tennessee in a late-December AFC showdown resulting in a 31-14 Titans win. Even the Steelers' most notable road win was a controversial one, with Santonio Holmes' disputed TD catch the difference in a last-minute 13-9 escape at Baltimore.
While some will point to Pittsburgh’s Super Bowl victory 3 years ago as a big experience edge for the Steelers, we would note that Ken Whisenhunt and his staff won 12 Super Bowl rings of their own.
Additionally, we have a small-sample Super Bowl POWER SYSTEM that states:
Play AGAINST a Super Bowl team off an appearance in any of the 3 previous Super Bowls vs. an opponent not off a Conference Championship SU win as an underdog of more than 10 points in its last game.
Since 1995, these experience Super Bowl teams have gone 0-6 ATS, failing to cover the spread by more than 10 points per game on average.
We also have a very simple, but very strong Super Bowl POWER SYSTEM active for this game, as the team that has done better spread-wise in the postseason has continued to cover the number under the circumstances outlined. It reads:
Play ON a Super Bowl team (not a favorite of more than 13 points) with the better ATS record in the current postseason (underdog if ATS records identical with only wins; favorite if ATS records identical with any losses/pushes).
We have used this Super Bowl POWER SYSTEM in each of the past 4 seasons after discovering this situation, and it has been a winner for us each time. Qualifying teams are now 17-0 ATS since 1987, beating the spread by nearly 2 TDs per game on average. With the underdog Cardinals 3-0 ATS in this year’s playoffs, they trump the Steelers’ 2-0 spread mark, making Arizona the “PLAY ON” team.
We also note that after making it to the Super Bowl with an underdog victory, teams have continued to play very well in recent seasons. Specifically:
Play ON a Super Bowl team off a Conference Championship underdog SU win in its last game vs. an opponent not favored off a Conference Championship underdog SU win in its last game.
Just since 2000, these teams are 6-0 ATS, crushing the spread by more than 16 ppg on average.
Finally, whether an underdog or the favorite in the Super Bowl, lower-seeded teams have been the side with line value in recent seasons. This Super Bowl POWER SYSTEM states:
Play AGAINST a Super Bowl Higher Seed not an underdog of 7+ points vs. an opponent not off a Conference Championship SU win as an underdog of more than 10 points in its last game.
Since 1995, these teams are 0-9-2 ATS, failing to cover the number by more than 11 points per game on average.
Just as having Jon Gruden as coach in Tampa Bay’s Super Bowl outing against the Raiders a few years ago, having Whisenhunt & Co. on the sidelines should be a huge advantage for Arizona. It should certainly be enough of an edge to allow the Cardinals to cover the spread and may prove to be enough to hand them a Super win. Ultimately, we expect a razor-close game with the Steelers pulling out a victory by the slimmest of margins.
GRADED PREDICTION: 4* Arizona +7 over Pittsburgh
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Handicapper: Cajun Sports
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Arizona Cardinals (NFL) - 6:25 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: 6.5/-100 Arizona Cardinals Play Title: Cajuns NFL 4-Star Super Bowl Winner 17-0-2 ATS
Click Here to View Pick Analysis
This season’s NFL Championship will be decided on Sunday as the Steelers make their 7th Super Bowl appearance to take on a Cardinals team making their first ever showing in this extravaganza.
In fact, Arizona’s division title this year was their first since 1975, when the team resided in St. Louis and called the NFC East home. The team’s playoff appearance this season is just the second in the span of 24 seasons, and the team earned a postseason home game for the first time since 1947.
Arizona's three wins in the 2008 playoffs - over the Falcons, Panthers and Eagles - were more playoff victories than the club had recorded in its previous 87 years of existence - combined.
Obviously, the Cards are viewed as an unlikely Super Bowl participant due not only to their dismal history, but to their occasionally shoddy play in this, their NFC West Championship season.
Ken Whisenhunt's club went just 9-7 in 2008, making Arizona the weakest of the NFC's six playoff entries. Arizona was 0-5 on the east coast during the regular season prior to their 20-point upset of the Panthers in the NFC Divisional Round, including decisive losses to the Jets, Eagles, and Patriots, allowing 47+ points in each game.
Following the retirement of Bill Cowher 2 years ago, Whisenhunt and current Arizona assistant head coach Russ Grimm were both interviewed, and eventually passed over, for the head job that went to Pittsburgh's Mike Tomlin in 2007.
Tomlin has become the youngest coach to lead a team to the Super Bowl with the Black and Gold's 23-14 AFC Championship win over the Ravens. The Steelers are now seeking what would be an NFL-record sixth Super Bowl title, which would break a tie with the Cowboys and 49ers for the most all-time.
Both starting quarterbacks will be seeking a second Super Bowl win on Sunday, with the Steelers' Ben Roethlisberger and Cardinals' Kurt Warner both attempting to become multiple Super Bowl winners.
Warner, who also lost a Super Bowl as a member of the Rams in 2001, can become the first starting QB in NFL history to win a Super Bowl with two different teams.
The Steelers lead the all-time series with the Cardinals, which dates back to the 1933 season, by a 31-23-3 count; however, Whisenhunt won his only meeting with Pittsburgh since leaving the Steel City, guiding the Cardinals to a 21-14 victory in Week 4 of the 2007 season at University of Phoenix Stadium.
Ben Roethlisberger will be trying to erase the memory of his poor performance in Super Bowl XL, when he completed just 9-of-21 passes for 123 yards with zero touchdowns and two interceptions. Roethlisberger did rush for a (controversial) touchdown in the game, but his 22.6 passer rating remains the worst for a winning quarterback in Super Bowl history. The former Pro Bowler has made several big plays in this postseason, and has thrown a pair of touchdown passes without a turnover in the 2008 playoffs; however, in his last meeting with the Cardinals, in Week 4 of the 2007 season, Roethlisberger threw two picks and was sacked four times on a 17-of-32, 244-yard passing day, and his team lost the game.
Pittsburgh RB Willie Parker has played good football of late and can point to a strong Super Bowl showing 3 years ago, his work last time out against the Cardinals left much to be desired. Arizona held him to 37 yards on 19 carries in that game last season.
The most notable Steelers injury heading into Super Bowl XLIII is the knee sprain suffered by WR Hines Ward against Baltimore, though the ailment is not expected to keep him out or limit his availability in the game. Ward was huge in Super Bowl XL, catching five passes for 123 yards including a 43-yard fourth quarter TD catch on a trick play pass from fellow WR Randle El. WR Santonio Holmes has made giant plays in both of the team's 2008 playoff games, as he has scored on a 67- yard punt return and 65-yard touchdown catch in these playoffs.
Much of Pittsburgh's offensive inconsistency in 2008 can be laid at the feet of a struggling line that neither showed a great push in the running game nor managed to keep Roethlisberger upright for any length of time. Tackles Max Starks and Willie Colon were at the forefront of a pass-blocking group that surrendered 49 sacks on the year. The Steelers allowed four sacks to Baltimore in the AFC Championship. Now, the Pittsburgh o-line will have to face a young and active Arizona defensive line.
Cardinals Antonio Smith and Bertrand Berry have really stepped up their play during Arizona's postseason run, with the duo combining for four of the team's seven sacks in the playoffs. Berry topped the Cardinals with five quarterback takedowns in the regular season despite often sharing time with Travis LaBoy.
Darnell Dockett compensates for a lack of ideal size for an interior defender with tremendous quickness and explosion off the snap, qualities that enabled the energetic tackle to generate nine sacks and earn a Pro Bowl nod in 2007.
The Arizona linebacking crew is also under-rated, as this quality crew is headlined by Karlos Dansby. Rugged middle linebacker Gerald Hayes has been one of the keys to the team's resurgence in defending the run, while veteran Chike Okeafor put together a solid season after missing all of 2007 with a torn biceps.
The Cardinals ranked an unwanted 30th in the NFL in pass efficiency defense during the regular season, but an area that was a major weakness early on has been upgraded with the emergence of rookie Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie at one of the cornerback spots. The first-round draft choice has become a lock-down defender in the season's second half and has snared six interceptions over Arizona's last six games.
Strong safety Adrian Wilson may not have the notoriety of Pittsburgh's Troy Polamalu, but the team captain's exceptional blend of size and skill make him just as vital to the success of the Cardinals' defense as Polamalu is to the Steelers. Former first-round pick Antrel Rolle seems to have found a home at free safety after flopping as a cornerback and has a flair for the big play. The fourth-year pro had a momentum-changing fumble return touchdown against Atlanta in the NFC Wild Card round, his fifth defensive score in the past two years.
Looking at the Cardinals on offense, they are in great hands with the rejuvenated Kurt Warner at the controls of the NFL's second-ranked passing offense. Warner is a two-time league MVP who's played in two previous Super Bowls with the St. Louis Rams and owns a stellar 8-2 career postseason record. Advanced age has not seemed to diminish his arm strength or accuracy, as Warner completed better than 67 percent of his passes in the regular season.
Edgerrin James and Tim Hightower have been a most effective duo during Arizona's remarkable postseason run, although they'll have their toughest challenge to date from Pittsburgh's stingy rushing defense. Hightower has quickly established himself as a strong short-yardage runner and a capable receiver who caught the deciding touchdown pass in the team's 32-25 victory over Philadelphia in the NFC Championship.
There's not a team in the league that can best the Cardinals' top-notch receiving trio of Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, and Steve Breaston, with the group becoming only the fifth threesome in NFL history to eclipse 1,000 receiving yards in a single season. The dazzling Fitzgerald has been virtually unstoppable down the stretch, as the first-team All-Pro has amassed five straight 100-yard outings and hauled in eight touchdown passes over that stretch. The fearless Boldin missed some time during the playoffs with a hamstring strain, but the sure-handed wideout should be close to 100% for the Super Bowl.
The offensive Line is another area on the Arizona team that has raised its level of play during the team’s unexpected run to the Super Bowl. The five-man contingent has provided excellent protection for Warner, who's been sacked just three times in Arizona's playoff wins, and skillfully opened holes for the running backs. Of course, the Cardinals offense will have its biggest challenge yet, going up against the Steelers NFL-leading defense.
Perhaps the most unsung component of Pittsburgh’s stop unit is their three-man front, which consists of space-eating nose tackle Casey Hampton and ends Aaron Smith and Brett Keisel. Hampton and Smith had four tackles each in Super Bowl XL, and Hampton had a sack of Seattle's Matt Hasselbeck in that contest.
Any plays that the d-line has not made against opposing running games this season have been cleaned up mainly by the Steelers' inside linebacker rotation of James Farrior, Larry Foote and Lawrence Timmons. Farrior had a team-high nine tackles against the Ravens in the AFC Championship game, while Timmons chipped in with a game-sealing fumble recovery that followed a monster hit by safety Ryan Clark on Ravens running back Willis McGahee. Farrior was one of three Steelers named to the AFC Pro Bowl team back in December, along with Harrison and safety Troy Polamalu.
The engine of the Steelers defense is their pass rush, led by Harrison and fellow OLB LaMarr Woodley. Harrison has had the stronger year, but when he was shut out of the sack category against the Ravens in the AFC Championship, Woodley helped pick up the slack with a pair of sacks.
No position on the field for Pittsburgh will be under more scrutiny than cornerback, as Ike Taylor, Deshea Townsend, and Bryant McFadden will be the main figures trying to contain the 1,000-yard Arizona receiving trio. The group struggled against Fitzgerald last time out, surrendering 10 receptions for 120 yards to the All-Pro in their 2007 meeting, and caught a break when Boldin sat out that game due to injury.
If the Steelers are to contain Fitzgerald and Boldin, they'll need a great deal of help from safeties Polamalu and Ryan Clark, who both come off fine seasons and notable performances in the AFC Championship. On a 3rd-and-13 play with under five minutes left and the Steelers ahead, 16-14, a floated pass by Flacco was intercepted by Polamalu, whose 40-yard runback for a touchdown put Baltimore in an insurmountable 23-14 hole.
The teams also match up fairly evenly on special teams. After two subpar seasons that followed a record-setting 2005 campaign, the Cardinals' Neil Rackers rebounded with a excellent year in which the strong-legged kicker made good on 25-of-28 field goal attempts prior to the playoffs. He then converted 5-of-7 three-point tries in Arizona's three postseason games, with both misses coming from beyond 50 yards.
Although Ben Graham has solidified this position somewhat during the playoffs, the Cardinals ranked 31st out of 32 NFL teams in net punting in the regular season. The Australian veteran has lost some leg strength over the past couple of years, but still gets good hang time and placement on his kicks.
The Steelers are fully aware of Steve Breaston's punt-returning skills, since the sophomore wideout delivered a 73-yard touchdown in Arizona's 21-14 win over Pittsburgh last season. Reserve running back J.J. Arrington has two kick return touchdowns over the last three years, including a 93-yard score that helped spur a critical overtime victory over Dallas in mid-October, and ranked among the NFC leaders in that category with a 25.6 yard average.
The Cardinals produced the NFC's special teams representative for the upcoming Pro Bowl in Sean Morey, who led the club with 22 coverage tackles and blocked a punt in overtime that created the winning touchdown in the Week 6 win over the Cowboys.
The Steelers have a reliable leg in seventh-year kicker Jeff Reed, who was 27-of-31 on field goals during the regular season. In the AFC Championship, Reed was 3-for-3 on field goals, connecting on kicks of 34, 42, and 46 yards in less-than-ideal conditions.
Steelers punter Mitch Berger was competent but unspectacular during the regular season, but the 36-year-old journeyman has not kicked well during the playoffs. Berger has punted to averages of just 41.5 (gross) and 33.4 yards (net) on 11 punts, and has not placed a single kick inside the 20-yard-line.
Santonio Holmes was not necessarily sensational on punt returns during the regular season, averaging just 6.6 yards per attempt, but showed against the Chargers that he possesses big-play ability if given some space. In addition to his performance against the Bolts, Holmes also had a nice 25-yard punt return against a good Ravens punt coverage group in the AFC Championship.
The Steelers coverage groups did a consistently credible job during the regular season, allowing 19.3 yards per kickoff return and 6.2 yards per punt return without surrendering a touchdown on either avenue. Some cracks have formed in the foundation during the postseason, however. The Chargers' Darren Sproles broke free for a 63-yard kickoff return in the Divisional Playoff round, while Baltimore's Jim Leonhard set up a touchdown with a 45-yard punt return in the AFC Championship. Also, the Steelers allowed a 73-yard punt return for a touchdown to Arizona's Steve Breaston when the teams met in Week 4 of the 2007 campaign.
We believe in the adage “defense wins championships”; however, that doesn’t mean great defensive teams will cover pointspreads as large favorites. The Steelers aren't a great offensive football team, although they did cover sizeable pointspreads in their 2 playoffs games so far this season. We would point out though, that Pittsburgh enjoyed the advantage of 2 home games in less-than-ideal conditions and played foes with serious deficiencies. The Chargers were without “LT”, while the Ravens were playing with a rookie QB, who was in over his head in the AFC Championship Game. Here, Pittsburgh will be on a neutral field against an opponent at full strength being led by a veteran, Super Bowl-winning QB.
It might not be whether Pittsburgh's defense can hold down Arizona's offense, but by how much. Dick LeBeau issues goals to his defense and each game they enter with a goal of holding the opposing offense to 17 points.
They figure if they do that, they have a high chance of winning. Five times the past season, opponents scored more than 17 points against the Steelers, although not all of those points came against their defense. The Steelers lost three of those games and another went into overtime before they won.
Against the Cardinals' dynamic offense, that goal might have to be stretched somewhat. But by how much - 20, 24, 27? That would put more pressure on Pittsburgh's offense to ring up some points, and the Steelers have had a spotty record of that this season.
Pittsburgh ranked 20th in the NFL with an average of 21.7 points per game during the regular season.
The pressure might not be on the Steelers defense to stop Arizona's productive offense as much as it will be on their own offense to produce more than it has much of the season. And that will mean the Steelers need a good game from their quarterback, certainly better than the Super Bowl he played three years ago. The Steelers beat Seattle, 21-10, almost in spite of Ben Roethlisberger.
While “Big Ben” was perhaps an overwhelmed youngster in that Super Bowl 3 years ago, he faces a different problem this time, as one of our football handicapping keys is to:
Play ON a team with a new head coach or assistant that was previously with his new team’s current opponent.
This situation is especially strong if the coach left with a bitter taste in his mouth and/or his new team is an underdog. These coaches know their ex-team and ex-players very well, and if the schemes they left behind are still in tact, they will have a huge gameplanning edge.
Arizona certainly fits the bill here, as they have coaches that spent a lot of time coaching many of the Steelers, including Roethlisberger. Both sides are downplaying it, but the fact is that Cardinals coach Ken Whisenhunt was Roethlisberger's offensive coordinator for his first three seasons in the NFL. Arizona’s offensive line coach Russ Grimm also held that job in Pittsburgh and played a big part in formulating game plans with Whisenhunt. They have intimate knowledge of what Roethlisberger prefers and does not like in terms of how he's blitzed, from where, etc.
The Cardinals staff also includes former Steelers assistants Billy Davis (linebackers), Mike Miller (wide receivers), Matt Reich (defensive assistant), and Kevin Spencer (special teams). Former Steelers players on the team include injured linebacker Clark Haggans, tight end Jerame Tuman, quarterback Brian St. Pierre and Pro Bowl special teamer Sean Morey.
Roethlisberger was inconsistent this season after an outstanding 2007. He was down to 17 TD passes and an 80.1 passer rating, down from 32 TDs and a 104.1 rating in 2007, both team records. Yet he also had five winning drives in the fourth quarter or OT in 2008, and had to do so under a lot of pressure behind a so-so line - he was sacked 46 times.
Results of previous regular-season meetings are hardly foolproof indicators of what might transpire in a postseason rematch. That's especially true if the last meeting between the teams occurred in a prior campaign. Nonetheless, because of the unique dynamics involved between Pittsburgh and Arizona, a review of 2007's 21-14 Cardinal win is in order.
The Steelers entered that game hot, having scored 97 points in winning their first 3 games in impressive fashion, but they were mostly held in check by the Arizona defense that afternoon. Indeed, Pittsburgh WR Santonio Holmes thought Whisenhunt's familiarity with his old team proved a bonus for the Big Red. "I think coach Whiz knew some of our weak points of our offense," said Holmes. "He was sending guys left and right, bringing pressure as much as he could to try and disrupt our offense." The Steelers' usually robust infantry was slowed to a crawl, Willie Parker gaining only 37 YR on 19 carries, while QB Ben Roethlisberger tossed a pair of picks and was sacked 4 times and suffered his worst QB rating of the season.
Meanwhile, Kurt Warner came off the bench to relieve the ineffective Matt Leinart for Arizona, with the vet QB leading a second-half comeback. Arizona, with Edgerrin James gaining 77 yards on the ground, actually outrushed Pittsburgh, while Card WR Fitzgerald caught those 10 passes despite being the focus of Steeler pass coverage with fellow WR Boldin out with an injury.
It's apparent that Whisenhunt's familiarity with his old Steeler troops made the difference in the last meeting. While, Pittsburgh may be a bit of a different bunch than it was in September of 2007, the Cards are hardly the same team they were last year, either.
They're a lot better.
It's also worth noting that Whisenhunt & Co. have had nearly a full season to make adjustments, which is exactly what they've done in the postseason. The Big Red has successfully balanced their offense in the playoffs, thanks to the re-emergence of Edgerrin James. And Warner has dealt successfully with some of the NFC's best defenses in the postseason, with the Cards cracking the 30-point barrier in each of their three playoff games. It would be hard to argue that the Steeler defense is playing any better than Philadelphia's was entering the NFC title game, but Warner & Co. jumped on the Eagles early and had enough poise and presence to weather the desperate Philly rally, resolutely driving 72 yards in 14 plays for the winning TD in the waning moments at Glendale. Versus the Julius Peppers-led Carolina pass rush in the division round, and against the variety of blitzes of Eagle DC Jim Johnson in the NFC title game, Warner's savvy reads and quick release helped diffuse the best of pass rushes, even as it can against Dick LeBeau's patented zone blitzers. And no opposing secondary has figured out a way to slow the rampant Fitzgerald in the postseason.
Forget Arizona’s publicized shortcomings on the road, especially in the eastern time zone, during the regular season. The Cards exorcized those demons with their runaway win at Carolina, which boasted the only 8-0 home record during the regular season. The dynamics of the Super Bowl, where the teams spend almost a week at the game's locale, are far different than a normal, hurried-up, regular-season road trip, anyway. It should also be noted that Pittsburgh was not infallible away from home this season, falling embarrassingly short in two of its toughest tests away from Heinz Field - smothered by the Eagle defense in a 15-6 early-season loss at the Linc, and outclassed decisively at Tennessee in a late-December AFC showdown resulting in a 31-14 Titans win. Even the Steelers' most notable road win was a controversial one, with Santonio Holmes' disputed TD catch the difference in a last-minute 13-9 escape at Baltimore.
While some will point to Pittsburgh’s Super Bowl victory 3 years ago as a big experience edge for the Steelers, we would note that Ken Whisenhunt and his staff won 12 Super Bowl rings of their own.
Additionally, we have a small-sample Super Bowl POWER SYSTEM that states:
Play AGAINST a Super Bowl team off an appearance in any of the 3 previous Super Bowls vs. an opponent not off a Conference Championship SU win as an underdog of more than 10 points in its last game.
Since 1995, these experience Super Bowl teams have gone 0-6 ATS, failing to cover the spread by more than 10 points per game on average.
We also have a very simple, but very strong Super Bowl POWER SYSTEM active for this game, as the team that has done better spread-wise in the postseason has continued to cover the number under the circumstances outlined. It reads:
Play ON a Super Bowl team (not a favorite of more than 13 points) with the better ATS record in the current postseason (underdog if ATS records identical with only wins; favorite if ATS records identical with any losses/pushes).
We have used this Super Bowl POWER SYSTEM in each of the past 4 seasons after discovering this situation, and it has been a winner for us each time. Qualifying teams are now 17-0 ATS since 1987, beating the spread by nearly 2 TDs per game on average. With the underdog Cardinals 3-0 ATS in this year’s playoffs, they trump the Steelers’ 2-0 spread mark, making Arizona the “PLAY ON” team.
We also note that after making it to the Super Bowl with an underdog victory, teams have continued to play very well in recent seasons. Specifically:
Play ON a Super Bowl team off a Conference Championship underdog SU win in its last game vs. an opponent not favored off a Conference Championship underdog SU win in its last game.
Just since 2000, these teams are 6-0 ATS, crushing the spread by more than 16 ppg on average.
Finally, whether an underdog or the favorite in the Super Bowl, lower-seeded teams have been the side with line value in recent seasons. This Super Bowl POWER SYSTEM states:
Play AGAINST a Super Bowl Higher Seed not an underdog of 7+ points vs. an opponent not off a Conference Championship SU win as an underdog of more than 10 points in its last game.
Since 1995, these teams are 0-9-2 ATS, failing to cover the number by more than 11 points per game on average.
Just as having Jon Gruden as coach in Tampa Bay’s Super Bowl outing against the Raiders a few years ago, having Whisenhunt & Co. on the sidelines should be a huge advantage for Arizona. It should certainly be enough of an edge to allow the Cardinals to cover the spread and may prove to be enough to hand them a Super win. Ultimately, we expect a razor-close game with the Steelers pulling out a victory by the slimmest of margins.
GRADED PREDICTION: 4* Arizona +7 over Pittsburgh
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