Sun, 02/01/09 - 6:20 PMLenny Del Genio | NFL Side
triple-dime bet101 PIT -7.0 (-110) BetUS vs 102 ARI
Analysis:
Play on Pittsburgh at 6:20 ET. Despite what the Arizona Cardinals have pulled off in the postseason, we are calling for the dream to die at Super Bowl XLIII. No, this is not the "worst playoff team in NFL History." A shocking upset of Carolina proved that. So too has the respective performances of QB Warner and WR Fitzgerald. They also have former Steelers OC Wisenhunt as their HC as well as five other former Steelers assistants on their sideline. However, all this being said, we are not going to back away from our basic assertions from before the Carolina game. This team was 0-5 SU in non-division road games during the regular season. Some of those losses included by 40 to the Patriots, 28 to the Eagles and 21 to the Jets. They beat only one playoff team and that was Miami back in September. Granted, they've proven throughout this playoff run that you probably need to throw some of that out, but consider some fortunate breaks they've received these last three games. Falcons rookie QB Matt Ryan was tipping them off with the snap count in the Wild Card round. Carolina QB Jake Delhomme turned the ball over six times in the Divisional Round and two weeks ago they became the first #4 seed EVER to host a Conference Title Game, were outgained by 85 yards and still won. The defense, while playing better, still allowed an average of 26.6 PPG during the year and allowed 36 TD Passes, an NFL worst. Even with the resurgence of RB Edgerrin James, the offense remains largely one-dimensional as they ranked last in the league with 74 RYPG, getting outgained on the ground by an average of 37 YPG. QB Warner, who has turned the ball over 26 times, will be a sitting duck against the Pittsburgh blitz that had the 2nd most sacks in the league with 51. In terms of yards allowed, the Steelers were #1 across the board on defense. QB Roethlisberger is an outstanding 7-2 SU in playoff games. The running game is coming back with RB Parker topping the 100yd mark in two of his last three games. This offense is pretty good too, having topped 30pts in five games this season. Off 4+ ATS wins, the Cardinals are just 1-9 ATS since 1992. Pittsburgh is 72-49 ATS on turf. We just do not like Arizona's chances against this physical defense and big game experience is firmly on the side of the Steelers. Pittsburgh is our Super Bowl XLIII Oddsmaker Mismatch.
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